Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has maintained its jumpy record of late, the latest result reverting back to 50-50 after blowing out to 54-46 to the Coalition in the last poll three weeks ago. The two 50-50 results Newspoll has recorded have been the best results Labor has received in phone polls since early last year.

James J reports Newspoll is back to 50-50 after inflating to 54-46 to the Coalition in the last poll three weeks ago. The primary votes are 36% for Labor (up three), 41% for the Coalition (down four) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Gillard’s lead as prime minister is up slightly, from 43-33 to 45-34, but her personal ratings are rather less good than in Nielsen: approval 35% (down one) and disapproval 51% (up one). Tony Abbott has again gone backwards, his approval down three to 30% and disapproval up three to 58%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1176 with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Essential Research puts a dampener on things for Labor by finding the Coalition up a point on two-party preferred to now lead 54-46. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (9%). Also featured: 45% expect the UN Security Council seat to be of benefit to Australia against 36% of little or no benefit; 28% support the export of uranium to India against 40% opposed; 39% support nuclear power for electricity generation (up four since the wake of Fukushima) against 41% opposed (down 12); 35% rate the economy in good shape against 29% poor; 37% approve of spending cuts to keep the budget in surplus against 43% disapproval.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll also brings us a finding that only 26% expect the government to succeed in bringing the budget into surplus, against 59% who think it will not succeed (38-47 against among Labor voters, 14-78 amongst Coalition). On the question of how high a priority it should be, 35% said high, 35% said low and 21% said “not a priority”. Thirty-nine per cent agreed that Tony Abbott has been sexist towards Julia Gillard against 45% who disagreed. This breaks down, not too surprisingly, to 35-48 among men against 43-41 among women, and 66-21 among Labor supporters against 13-76 among Coalition supporters. Less expected is the concentration of support for the proposition among the 35-49 age cohort: 44-39 compared with 33-45 with younger and 40-49 with older voters. Those who agreed were further asked about the appropriateness of Gillard’s response, the upshot of which is that 2% of the overall sample felt she underreacted to Abbott’s sexism, 30% thought she got the reaction to Abbott’s sexism about right, 6% thought she overreacted to Abbott’s sexism, 45% thought there was no sexism to react to, and 16% were undecided, indifferent or ignorant of the matter.

Federal preselection news:

• The South Australian ALP has made a poorly received decision to maintain the order at the top of its Senate ticket from 2007, with parliamentary secretary and Right powerbroker Don Farrell having seniority over Finance Minister Penny Wong, a member of the minority Left faction. Farrell won the ballot by 112 votes to 83 for Wong. Anthony Albanese, a powerbroker in the NSW Left, described the result as a “joke” and an “act of self-indulgence”, offering that Wong was “obviously our most talented senator from South Australia”. Third on the ticket is Simon Pisoni, an official for the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union and the brother of a state Liberal MP, David Pisoni.

• Andrew Crook at Crikey reports that Labor will hold a preselection for Dobell in February or March next year. Craig Thomson is suspended from the party, and is thus likely to be ineligible to nominate. Mentioned as possible contenders are David Mehan, described by Crook as the “popular local LUCRF super fund manager”, who was the party’s unsuccessful candidate in 2004 and challenged Thomson for preselection in 2010, and David Harris, Point Clare Public School principal and former state member for Wyong who lost his seat at last year’s election. Emma McBride, daughter of former The Entrance MP Grant McBride, was previously mentioned, but is now said to be “out of the race”.

• Mat Nott of the Fraser Coast Chronicle reports the candidates for Liberal National Party preselection to succeed retiring Paul Neville in the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler are believed to include Maryborough school principal Len Fehlhaber, Hervey Bay accountant Geoff Redpath, parole and probation officer Greg McMahon, Australian Safety and Training Alliance managing director Keith Pitt, and two political staffers – Chris McLoughlin, who works for state Bundaberg MP Jack Dempsey, and Cathy Heidrich, a former newspaper proprietor who works for Paul Neville and is “widely expected to receive at least his unofficial backing”. Michael McKenna of The Australian also mentioned former Isis mayor Bill Trevor.

• Queensland’s Liberal National Party will hold a preselection on November 24 to choose its Senate ticket, with incumbent Ian McDonald set to retain top spot and two vacancies created by the retirements of Ron Boswell and Sue Boyce. Most prominent among the 16 mooted nominees is James McGrath, the party’s campaign director for the state election this year who unsuccessfully ran against Mal Brough for the Fisher preselection after appearing to have the numbers sewn up in neighbouring Fairfax. Also mentioned are LNP vice-president Gary Spence, Toowoomba doctor and university lecturer David Van Gend, Senator Barnaby Joyce’s chief of staff Matthew Canavan, former Queensland Chamber of Commerce and Industry president David Goodwin, barrister Amanda Stoker and animal nutritionist Theresa Craig.

• A legal action that was delaying federal Liberal preselections in New South Wales has been resolved, with the state executive reluctantly agreeing to a allow a motion for rank-and-file preselections and a less interventionist state executive to be brought before the state council. The challenge in the Supreme Court arose from the David Clarke right faction, which was angered that factional rivals on the state executive, which is controlled by an alliance of moderates and the rival Alex Hawke right, had imposed candidates in the marginal Labor central coast seats of Dobell and Robertson. However, Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “any change would require the support of 60 per cent of state council members, which many doubt it would receive”. Among the seats affected by the preselection delay was the crucial western Sydney seat of Greenway.

• Former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh has announced he will seek preselection to run as the Greens Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory. The Greens have been hopeful of winning the second ACT Senate seat from Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries at the past few elections, but have consistently fallen short.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,266 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 1 of 106
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  3. From previous thread…
    James J@1983

    Newspoll

    50-50 2PP

    Primaries: ALP 36, LNP 41, Greens 10, Other 13

    Better PM: Gillard 45, Abbott 34

    Gillard: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 51
    Abbott: Satisfied 30, Dissatisfied 58

    1176 sample, October 26-28.

    WOW!
    Is that on the level?

    Hahahaha.. all the conspiracy theories on here about Newspoll.

    I still have the tin-foil hats available for all you folks needing them. All sizes in 3 popular styles. Send your orders via William. 👿

  13. @bemused/3

    We don’t need tinfoil hats as we didn’t require them.

    We have been quiet happy with the current chain of events as of late.

  14. Leroy@1988


    Aguirre – my tip was the same as yours.

    Glad to be wrong!

    Me too. Didn’t give it a lot of thought this week. The trend is probably still just on the Coalition side of even, somewhere around 51-49, so I expect the polls to bounce around on either side of that.

  18. Another dead heater will only inflame the anti Gillard ranters.

    Even though it’s still too early to get excited about, this poll at least halts the Rudd happy clappers for another fortnight.

  20. bemused@3


    Hahahaha.. all the conspiracy theories on here about Newspoll.

    I still have the tin-foil hats available for all you folks needing them. All sizes in 3 popular styles. Send your orders via William.

    Put me down for one of those hats 🙂 – I just can’t help wondering just how bad the previous polls must have been for them not to be published?

  21. Well done James 🙂

    best thing with these 50/50 polls is it that it changes the dynamic – there can be no more of the “the government would still be wiped out at the next election” lines

    we have a contest folks 🙂

  22. Sooner or later it had to happen.

    This will not win an election but sure as hell beats what was happening in the winter of 2011.

    Time is on Labor’s side.

    At some point in the past the pundits had it that Labor was gone for all money.

    They could still lose come 2013 but, and this is the point, they may also win.

    I suspect the conservatives will not be calling for an “early election” any time soon.

    Look to see this poll down played, written off as an aberration and generally being considered “with the MOE”.

    Pressure on the conservatives now.

  24. [Pity the party’s out of touch with the mainstream.]

    😆

    Thought about posting something similar, but spur has racked off.

  26. confessions@18


    Another dead heater will only inflame the anti Gillard ranters.

    Even though it’s still too early to get excited about, this poll at least halts the Rudd happy clappers for another fortnight.

    You are so seriously full of shit you are overflowing.

    As feeny and I and others have repeatedly said, Rudd has said he won’t be challenging and we believe him.

    Only if things go really bad, as they could if Tone is replaced, is there any prospect of Rudd being drafted.

    Get over yourself.

  28. I see “others” is at 13% – so where is the support coming from for Labor?

    At 41% PV the conservatives cannot win the next election unless they poll well in the marginals or they pinch back some of the above 13%.

    What is the OM going to make of this?

  30. I wonder if that swaggering nasty clown Abbott will continue to arrogantly threaten to rush to a Double Dissolution if the Senate doesn’t ‘accept his overwhelming mandate to repeal the great big tax’

  31. In the first quarter the other team kept on calling us “impostors” and abused the umpire. In the second they went the knuckle – played real dirty.
    In the third quarter we just dug in and played honest football while they ran around looking for someone, something, to hit.
    And now it’s the final quarter and, after kicking a few goals we are in touch. Leaderless, they are running around not knowing what to do to beat us. They have forgotten what the game is all about.

  33. While some people are still banging on about events the majority of the populace has moved on from, one of the great political comebacks is unfolding.

    Given the level of sustained attacks from elements of the media – attacks that the proponents no longer even bother to try and claim are unbiased – it has been a remarkable effort.

  35. I blame McKew’s book …

    In all seriousness though, 46/54 was below the trend. This one is a bit above it.

    As Possum has shown, the variability of Newspoll has gone all over the place in the last couple of years. Maybe due to sampling problems

    http://twitpic.com/b428cd

    Still, should be fun to watch the stunts Abbott tries to pull this week

  36. And, just for a stir…

    [Praise Kevin‏@TheRuddCult

    Finally got around to reading the Bible. They basically took all of Kevin’s achievements and credited them to “God” – typical faceless men!]

  38. Oscar@20


    bemused@3


    Hahahaha.. all the conspiracy theories on here about Newspoll.

    I still have the tin-foil hats available for all you folks needing them. All sizes in 3 popular styles. Send your orders via William.


    Put me down for one of those hats – I just can’t help wondering just how bad the previous polls must have been for them not to be published?

    Let me know your size.

    Seriously, it is just plain nutty to expect polls to be manipulated. For polling companies it would be potentially suicidal if it happened and was leaked by a disgruntled staff member.

    (Mis-)Interpretation of what they mean by journalists is another matter altogether.

  41. 50/50
    Fanbluddytastic!

    I don’t need a tinfoil hat. I have made it a policy not to diss the polls. What News does with it is another thing or how they run stuff to influence it another, but I remain confident the polls are legit.

    Hahahahaha

    And after all the weeks shenanigans, a fifty/fifty. Hey Tone, howz thingz?

  42. Considering what the other polls have been saying recently, this Newspoll isn’t really that much of a stretch. While it could be a bit on the generous side to Labor, I’d hold back on jumping to call out “rogue!”

  43. zoidlord@32


    @bemused/26

    So why are you and feeney still banging on about? Why not ignore them?

    If I am not presumptuous in speaking for feeney, we object to what happened to Rudd in June 2010 and the a*seholes who did it and we object to the continual slagging of Rudd by morons like confessions.

    No issues with policy or what the government is doing except occasionally at the margins.

  45. You are so seriously full of shit you are overflowing.
    Let’s follow the adventures of bemused while he claims everybody is abusing him while he abuses others.

  47. @bemused/43

    2 years on and nobody cares.

    People are more concerned (and rightly so) about the LNP Goverments.

    Give it up.

    Stop effing trolling.

  48. One Trick Tony’s gone lame a long way from the finish line. Margie and Murdoch will have to carry him to the end of the race, but really, they needn’t bother, he won’t win.

    Or to change metaphors completely: there’s not enough lipstick in the world to doll up this pig; the punters ain’t gonna kiss it.

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