Sydney by-election live

Live coverage of the by-election to fill Clover Moore’s vacancy in the state seat of Sydney. Moore-backed independent Alex Greenwich takes the field against Shayne Mallard of the Liberals and Chris Harris of the Greens, Labor having piked.

8.05pm. Primary votes for the eight outstanding booths have been added, together with 4709 pre-polls: Greenwich 48.9% (swing of 9.9% on the booths), Liberal 29.8% (swing -5.1%), Greens 17.7% (swing 5.6%).

7.56pm. Much lower exhausted preferences rate on the basis of these eight booths: 8.5% compared with 14.3% last year. Presumably this is to do with the absence of Labor votes.

7.51pm. On a booth-matched basis, the eight booths reporting 2CP results show a 5.6% swing from Liberal to independent.

7.46pm. First two-candidate preferred figures, from eight booths, show a non-booth matched margin for Greenwich over Liberal of 15.9%.

7.36pm. The NSWEC disappointingly uploads 13 booths (which is most of them) in one hit, and Alex Greenwich’s win becomes even clearer: he’s on 49.2%, up 9.9% on Clover Moore on booth-matched basis, with Greens up 4.1% and Liberal down 4.5%.

7.07pm. And in case I’ve left any doubt there, Greenwich is clearly going to win.

7.06pm. Primary votes posted from four booths chime well with those just noted by Greenwich: him on 46.0%, Liberal on 34.7%, Greens on 16.5%. On a booth-matched basis, Greenwich is doing 5.7% better than Moore, while the Greens vote is up 3.6% and the Liberals down 2.5%. Given how low the Labor vote was at the election, that actually looks a respectable result for the Greens, and a poor one for the Liberals.

6.50pm. Guytaur in comments relates that Alex Greenwich has tweeted: “Early results from our scrutineers: Greenwich 44%, Liberals 37%, Greens 15%ׇ. Pointing to an easy win for him and yet another disappointing night for the Greens.

6pm. Polls have closed for the Sydney by-election: live commentary to follow. I won’t be going to town with booth-matched results and such on this occasion, but rest assured that Antony Green will be.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

48 comments on “Sydney by-election live”

  6. If that trend continues, Greenwich will have a better primary than Clover at the general election (36.3% but who also faced ALP, 11.3%)

  7. I made this comment on the other Sydney by-election thread
    [An aspect of comparison with the state general election that I do not think has had much airplay compared to the Clover-to-Greenwich flow, has been any potential impact from the Liberal pre-selection fight between Mallard and Bartels (the general election candidate, who gave Clover a real run for her money). It was a bit bitter

    Query if the Bartels’ Liberals lie a bit doggo today. Watch for the Liberals’ vote in the Potts Point/Kings Cross into Darlo booths]
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/10/23/sydney-by-election-october-27/#comment-1454506

    Only one booth so far in that zone, Darlinghurst Public, but it is a bit of a shocker for Liberals (+9.8% swing to Greenwich)

  8. twitter faster than NSWEC 😀
    [Alex CairnX ‏@alexcairnx
    @AlexGreenwich count at Reg Murphy in paddo pic.twitter.com/i2Pvoihk]
    Greenwich 1421
    Mallard 775
    Greens 502
    FredNile 39
    Occupy Sydney 27

  9. Reginald Murphy is located right in the centre of Potts Point. My rough calcs based on that tweet is 10% swing from Liberals (my methodology might be very suspect though :D)

  10. Not quite claiming victory but…
    [Alex Greenwich ‏@AlexGreenwich
    I will be making a statement with @clovermoore at 8:30pm. This by-election has been a referendum on Barry O’Farrell’s 18 months of failures]

  11. Whilst we’re In Praise of Psephologists: I ran into Malcolm Mackerras the other day. He was reminiscing about a 1950s Senate casual vacancy controversy. Whilst waiting for tourists to regale, as a volunteer guide at at Old Parliament House.

    William, never too late to begin retirement planning.

  15. I was working as an election official at Darlinghurst St Peters Playhouse, it was clear from what i was being told most were voting for Clover by proxy. A lot of anger at O’Farrell.

  16. That Reachtel poll might as well not have existed. Going by Antony’s table as of now, they seem to have got the Lib vote spot on, but the Greens 8.7% high, “others” 9% high, and Greenwich 17.8% low. How did they get that so very, very wrong?

  21. Haha – of course would not want you out of such a pleasant job, but I do not know how the NSWEC justifies that booth (having said that, it is an absolute pleasure to vote there; never any wait; the council election was just the same)

    Will be interesting to see how many pre-poll/ivotes there are. Antony Green has mentioned the low apparent turnover on the day

  22. Jack Stepney
    Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    Liberal votes down and no Labor candidate running. That takes special effort. Ok Tony, what are the Federal implications?

    —————————————————-

    Baseball bats were used on the liberal party ?

  24. Laocoon, i do think there should only be 2 people running the booth. I do think it should stay open for a few reasons. There are quite a few elderly voters nearby who hit us in the afternoon. Also, the surrounding booths get quite busy, pile on the 400-odd from ours and it would be mayhem. We act as kind of an overflow.

  25. On the “Bartels Liberals desertion” factor, there are five booths in the Potts Point/Kings Cross into Darlo where I hypothesised this factor would be strongest. Here they are with the 2CP swing to Greenwich
    [Reginald Murphy +16.1
    St Canices +14.4
    Darlinghurst Public +7.4
    St Johns +9.8
    St Peters +12.5]
    The Reg Murphy & St Canices are the 2 highest swings of any booth in the electorate, (so far – couple more yet to resport) so may be an effect in Potts Point central only.

    But there are big swings all over the place: Surry Hills; Woollahra, which ought to be Liberal heartland fortress, Alex Greenwich got 52.5% 2CP with 13% swing.

    So I suspect the hypothesis is of limited worth; there is enough of a swing to have some broader concerns for Brand Liberal (notwithstanding the highly idiosyncratic nature of the seat)

  26. Walked past a booth today – I’m a Heffronite so I wasn’t voting (thankfully), but I heard one enthusiastic HTV-er say this was a “referendum on gay marriage”. COAB and I thought the inner city residents were well-educated and politically savvy.

  27. Gareth
    [Also, the surrounding booths get quite busy, pile on the 400-odd from ours and it would be mayhem. We act as kind of an overflow.]
    True enough; at the last federal election it was not operating and I had to vote at St Johns – I finished reading the paper waiting in the queue!

    OC
    Welcome to the neighbourhood and yes, St Peters Playhouse is an absolute delight to vote at 🙂

    (I also noticed that SCEGGS is still building under the BER as well!)

  28. [I thought the inner city residents were well-educated and politically savvy.]
    Of course there was also the Greenwich vote because he was clearly the best looking candidate 😀

    Welcome to the seat of Sydney!

  29. I was driving to work at 7:30 last Monday morning and on the corner of Crown and Oxford calmly waiting for the lights to change was a man who looked exactly like Victor Meldrew. He was wearing a very short mini, boob tube and heels. The other pedestrians were taking no notice of him – I am not in Port Macquarie any more.

  34. Gladys Berejiklian was handing out how-to-vote at my booth. I would never vote for her party but I have to say she was good humoured, lovely to talk to, and down to earth. She might yet be Premier, and a good one. Still, very happy that Alex won with a huge swing to him!

  35. As a point – this is the third time that the state government has legislated against Clover. And every time, the government has been kicked in the head – first time, she got into parliament; second time, she won the Lord Mayoralty; third time, she has gotten her annointed successor into parliament with a huge swing. Moral of the story: stop trying to stop Clover – her electorate loves her!

  36. While I’m disappointed Labor didn’t run a candidate, I’m delighted that Greenwich has clearly beaten Mallard.

    Perhaps it’s a message to the Liberals that no matter even if they pretend to be supportive of the LGBT community, the fact that their federal leader bullied LGBT people and their supporters, and was never held account for, or even regretted doing so, they’ll never win seats like this.

  37. Gladys will never be premier. The ugly face of the Liberal Party will be there for another six and a bit in which time they will actually send the state backwards. Nobody has to look any further than her idiotic NW railaway that won’t allow existing trains on it.

  38. I wonder if the exceptionally poor Liberal vote in its heartland of Woollahra reflects in part the party’s current combination of social “conservative”/reactionary (perhaps better term) policies and incoherent/incompetent economic policies (especially federally).

    These are broader issues for brand Liberal than the state seat of Sydney

    Woollahra is in Wentworth, that delivered a strong swing to Turnbull in the last federal election

  44. Laocoon

    There won’t be a repeat of the greens exerting any pressure on inner city Sydney at the next Fed election like Grayndler last time, that seems certain.

  45. shellbell

    True enough generally, but note the difference between the western suburbs of Sydney (i.e. in this context, Pyrmont area!) and the rest (from the Greens’ release)
    [Strong Booth results for the Greens

    St Barnabas Broadway: 31% (up 14%)

    Ultimo Public: 26.7% (up 15%)

    St Peters Surry Hills: 23.3% (up 10%)]
    http://nsw.greens.org.au/content/greens-congratulate-alex-greenwich-sydney-victory

    Which is more in the western federal seats, rather than Wentworth which is on the eastern part of Sydney

  46. I think Grayndler will be a bit safer for Albo next time, but Tanya Plibersek is in serious danger of losing to the Greens. Ultimo is a bizarre, bizarre area (so close to the city, yet so inconvenient, and has absolutely no useful public transport of which to speak other than the atrocious 501 bus), but its getting a growing citizen student population (it has always students, but mostly nonvoting ones) and those people are tribal Greens. Also, the already-existing trendoids probably reckon Bandt in Melbourne does more for their pet causes than Plibersek does in Sydney (this is somewhat unfair, but the perception is out there).

  47. A fascinating idea I picked up this morning.

    The seat of Sydney is the second highest over quota in the state (reflecting lots of apartments). It will be changed significantly with the redistribution next year.

    Given (1) the tremendous success of Greenwich and (2) how very different the area is from the norm average to which mainstream parties must appeal, would Clover chance her arm and endorse a candidate for another (new) seat in the inner city at the next general election?? Have a serious attempt at 2 inner city independents.

    The idea may have some legs (depending on the redistribution)

  48. The new seat should, as Antony Green suggests, be created around Drummoyne. Canada Bay is too big to fit in one electorate, and there’s bugger all community of interest between Rhodes and Drummoyne. Split them up rather than splitting up Sydney (historical precedent be damned).

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