Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has maintained its jumpy record of late, the latest result reverting back to 50-50 after blowing out to 54-46 to the Coalition in the last poll three weeks ago. The two 50-50 results Newspoll has recorded have been the best results Labor has received in phone polls since early last year.

James J reports Newspoll is back to 50-50 after inflating to 54-46 to the Coalition in the last poll three weeks ago. The primary votes are 36% for Labor (up three), 41% for the Coalition (down four) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Gillard’s lead as prime minister is up slightly, from 43-33 to 45-34, but her personal ratings are rather less good than in Nielsen: approval 35% (down one) and disapproval 51% (up one). Tony Abbott has again gone backwards, his approval down three to 30% and disapproval up three to 58%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1176 with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Essential Research puts a dampener on things for Labor by finding the Coalition up a point on two-party preferred to now lead 54-46. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (9%). Also featured: 45% expect the UN Security Council seat to be of benefit to Australia against 36% of little or no benefit; 28% support the export of uranium to India against 40% opposed; 39% support nuclear power for electricity generation (up four since the wake of Fukushima) against 41% opposed (down 12); 35% rate the economy in good shape against 29% poor; 37% approve of spending cuts to keep the budget in surplus against 43% disapproval.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll also brings us a finding that only 26% expect the government to succeed in bringing the budget into surplus, against 59% who think it will not succeed (38-47 against among Labor voters, 14-78 amongst Coalition). On the question of how high a priority it should be, 35% said high, 35% said low and 21% said “not a priority”. Thirty-nine per cent agreed that Tony Abbott has been sexist towards Julia Gillard against 45% who disagreed. This breaks down, not too surprisingly, to 35-48 among men against 43-41 among women, and 66-21 among Labor supporters against 13-76 among Coalition supporters. Less expected is the concentration of support for the proposition among the 35-49 age cohort: 44-39 compared with 33-45 with younger and 40-49 with older voters. Those who agreed were further asked about the appropriateness of Gillard’s response, the upshot of which is that 2% of the overall sample felt she underreacted to Abbott’s sexism, 30% thought she got the reaction to Abbott’s sexism about right, 6% thought she overreacted to Abbott’s sexism, 45% thought there was no sexism to react to, and 16% were undecided, indifferent or ignorant of the matter.

Federal preselection news:

• The South Australian ALP has made a poorly received decision to maintain the order at the top of its Senate ticket from 2007, with parliamentary secretary and Right powerbroker Don Farrell having seniority over Finance Minister Penny Wong, a member of the minority Left faction. Farrell won the ballot by 112 votes to 83 for Wong. Anthony Albanese, a powerbroker in the NSW Left, described the result as a “joke” and an “act of self-indulgence”, offering that Wong was “obviously our most talented senator from South Australia”. Third on the ticket is Simon Pisoni, an official for the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union and the brother of a state Liberal MP, David Pisoni.

• Andrew Crook at Crikey reports that Labor will hold a preselection for Dobell in February or March next year. Craig Thomson is suspended from the party, and is thus likely to be ineligible to nominate. Mentioned as possible contenders are David Mehan, described by Crook as the “popular local LUCRF super fund manager”, who was the party’s unsuccessful candidate in 2004 and challenged Thomson for preselection in 2010, and David Harris, Point Clare Public School principal and former state member for Wyong who lost his seat at last year’s election. Emma McBride, daughter of former The Entrance MP Grant McBride, was previously mentioned, but is now said to be “out of the race”.

• Mat Nott of the Fraser Coast Chronicle reports the candidates for Liberal National Party preselection to succeed retiring Paul Neville in the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler are believed to include Maryborough school principal Len Fehlhaber, Hervey Bay accountant Geoff Redpath, parole and probation officer Greg McMahon, Australian Safety and Training Alliance managing director Keith Pitt, and two political staffers – Chris McLoughlin, who works for state Bundaberg MP Jack Dempsey, and Cathy Heidrich, a former newspaper proprietor who works for Paul Neville and is “widely expected to receive at least his unofficial backing”. Michael McKenna of The Australian also mentioned former Isis mayor Bill Trevor.

• Queensland’s Liberal National Party will hold a preselection on November 24 to choose its Senate ticket, with incumbent Ian McDonald set to retain top spot and two vacancies created by the retirements of Ron Boswell and Sue Boyce. Most prominent among the 16 mooted nominees is James McGrath, the party’s campaign director for the state election this year who unsuccessfully ran against Mal Brough for the Fisher preselection after appearing to have the numbers sewn up in neighbouring Fairfax. Also mentioned are LNP vice-president Gary Spence, Toowoomba doctor and university lecturer David Van Gend, Senator Barnaby Joyce’s chief of staff Matthew Canavan, former Queensland Chamber of Commerce and Industry president David Goodwin, barrister Amanda Stoker and animal nutritionist Theresa Craig.

• A legal action that was delaying federal Liberal preselections in New South Wales has been resolved, with the state executive reluctantly agreeing to a allow a motion for rank-and-file preselections and a less interventionist state executive to be brought before the state council. The challenge in the Supreme Court arose from the David Clarke right faction, which was angered that factional rivals on the state executive, which is controlled by an alliance of moderates and the rival Alex Hawke right, had imposed candidates in the marginal Labor central coast seats of Dobell and Robertson. However, Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “any change would require the support of 60 per cent of state council members, which many doubt it would receive”. Among the seats affected by the preselection delay was the crucial western Sydney seat of Greenway.

• Former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh has announced he will seek preselection to run as the Greens Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory. The Greens have been hopeful of winning the second ACT Senate seat from Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries at the past few elections, but have consistently fallen short.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,266 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 97 of 106
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  1. “@xx_Alexandra: Literally fistpumped out my car window upon hearing the news that Shane Rattenbury would form Govt with @Canberra_Labor.”

  2. I can’t believe the ABC can continue to fund someone who so openly adores Abbott and retweets all he says with approval, she has got to be worth more to Abbott than all his press secretaries and Pita together

  3. “@666canberra: ACT Greens MLA Shane Rattenbury will be taking on a Ministerial role in the new ACT (Minority) Labor Goverment.”

  6. cud chewer
    [I lost respect for Philip Adams at the time of the last election when he brought News Limited journos onto his program and didn’t pull them up when they told blatant lies about Labor. Losing his sense of perspective]
    PA at times used to get quite despondent about the rodent seemingly sailing on forever and what his policies were doing to Australia.I think he felt a great deal of gratitude for KR seeing off the Howard years and this made KR’s removal a red button issue for Adams . LNL still provides a lot of excellent radio but when it comes to KR he definitely maintains the rage.

  7. Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke
    ‘One of the annoying things for me when I got to Canberra was to realise the extent to which so many people leak’ http://latika.me/SjCmIY ]

    [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke
    Maybe Parliament was less leaky when Maxine was a Journalist? ]

    Not a bad point. Maxine should have known pretty well how much they leak while a political journalist.

  8. triton @ 4792

    [That can’t be right. Dick Morris on The O’Reilly Factor had Romney on >300.]

    Their pundit Morris is about as credible as our home grown version of the same animal, who crawls out from under a rock to spew his venom onto the airwaves by calling Leigh Sales a ‘cow,’ or to say PM Gillard should be ‘kicked to death.’

    Apart from the glasses worn by our version, these two clowns actually look a bit alike, with both of them having a slight lisping speech impediment – not that this means anything either way, as it’s their ethical and critical impairment that worries me.

  9. Oh and on “better competition rules” – as far as I’m concerned the litmus test for a “better” competition rule is what it would do to Coles and Woolworths. They are such a classic case of a lack of competition that any competition rule that is claimed to be “better” would have to impose serious penalties on the grocery duopoly, if not full-on US style antitrust enforced divestiture powers.

    I seriously doubt Tony Abbott is talking about that kind of improvement, and thus it’s just another empty phrase, particularly as the Tony Abbot I know, and the Liberal party of today, wouldn’t dare upset the various corporate oligopolies that are at the centre of problems with competition in Australia.

    Bob Katter, and perhaps the Greens, are the only ones talking about serious competition reform.

    No, the only competition Tony Abbott has in mind is to destroy the natural monopoly of the NBN. Woo hoo, let’s create Telstra screwup mark 2!

  10. Just heard some KenDoll on Sky talking up Abbott’s speech and dismissing the PM’s completely as just ‘Julia Gillard spending some time on the NSW Central Coast’. We had clips from Tone’s speech but none from the PM’s presser.

    Abbott appeared to be chewing gum or sucking on a lollie while those hecklers invaded the stage. It was not his usual lip licking, it was something in the mouth. Odd, and a very bad look. Has Peta just given up completely?

  12. Not surprised the Greens chose Labor. When it comes to policy there is no choice as the Conservative independents found Federally.

    It is amazing how progressive they look. That is until you realise Windsor and Oakeshott are true conservatives. You then realise exactly how extreme the Coalition has become.

  13. George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    Luck-o-the-Irish? Not according to Alan Joyce, who’s “luck” is in the shape of fucking over Qantas and getting paid for it

  16. Jackol @ 1799 makes a critique of TA’s platitudinous speech that really cuts to the chase (Jackol’s words, not Tony’s)

    His is an example of how superior the new media is to the old. It has a simplicity and directness that is absent from much of what appears in the OM. Congratulations and thank you, Jackol.

  19. [This is a motherhood statement.]

    Let’s see how the MSM play it. It will tell us whether Abbott is still the golden haired boy to them.

  20. “@mpbowers: #Insiders ABC 1 & NEWS 24 9am Sunday-The Panel:The Oz’s George Megalogenis, the Courier Mail’s Dennis Atkins and the Oz’s Niki Savva”

  23. [“@mpbowers: #Insiders ABC 1 & NEWS 24 9am Sunday-The Panel:The Oz’s George Megalogenis, the Courier Mail’s Dennis Atkins and the Oz’s Niki Savva”
    ]

    what’s the deal with 3 x #newscorpse journalists on Insiders?

  24. Insiders for next Sunday.
    George: good to very good
    Dennis: fair to good
    Niki: off scale

    And, as the start turn, Penny, a star turn.

  26. Seems to me that based on what we know about issues relating to Caltibano and Santoro that the government has handled the issues in an appropriate manner and referred the issues to the proper authorities.

  27. Guytaur,

    [It is amazing how progressive they look. That is until you realise Windsor and Oakeshott are true conservatives. You then realise exactly how extreme the Coalition has become.]

    Yes. What was it that Guy Rundle called them? Radical reactionaries?

  32. guytaur @ 4821

    [“@mpbowers: #Insiders ABC 1 & NEWS 24 9am Sunday-The Panel:The Oz’s George Megalogenis, the Courier Mail’s Dennis Atkins and the Oz’s Niki Savva”]

    George Megalogenis is the sole voice of reason dwelling in the Murdoch swamp, so I don’t have a problem with him. Atkins is a bit of an old fart, but not a complete fool, and Niki Savva … well, best not to even mention she exists, as she’s an unreconstructed Tory of zero ability or relevance.

  33. To Latika’s credit, she did seem to have a lot of fun on Wednesday on Capital Hill making Liberal Don Farrell look bad by shooting down his arguments.

  34. ffs

    Labor has it.

    We are going to have a magic pudding light rail. And Ms Gallagher wants more politicians.

    Here comes debt servitude…

  35. http://www.itnews.com.au/News/321695,telstra-fights-naked-dsl-with-interference-data.aspx

    ‘The carrier has turned over raw data on “interference investigation requests” that it believes support its contention that Naked DSL would introduce too many network faults.’

    ‘Telstra said it charged a fee of “$85 + $35/15 minutes” in business hours, or “$270 + $50/15 minutes” after hours, to investigate interference reports about either ULLS or LSS.’

    ‘The incumbent lays out those costs in its supplementary submission, though they are completely redacted in the public version, and provide no further clues on how expensive Telstra believes a mandated Naked DSL service could be.’

    Bad news for Coalition’s FTTN plan!

  38. z

    [no further clues on how expensive Telstra believes a mandated Naked DSL service could be,/i>]

    I understand that there are highly competitive lunch time special rates for Naked DSL services at Fyshwick.

  41. [Bad news for Coalition’s FTTN plan!]

    They don’t really have a plan. All they have is smear and lies against the current plan.

  44. @4840, 4841

    Yes, sorry about that. That’s what I get for reading an article involving O’Farrell before trying to remember which Don was the Liberal. 😀

  47. Daviswh yes

    it also says this

    On Friday, the premier said he learned of his party’s concerns some time ago, before Mr Caltabiano was forced to step aside over a separate matter.

    ———————————————–

    Would newman had said anything if nothing had happen to force Caltabiano to step aside

  48. davidwh
    [Seems to me that based on what we know about issues relating to Caltibano and Santoro that the government has handled the issues in an appropriate manner and referred the issues to the proper authorities.]
    When I first heard about Caltabiano getting the TMR job, I thought to myself “Santoro’s got his man in – there’s trouble in the offing”. Newman should never have let it happen – he must have known there’d be trouble. But perhaps he had to pay off some favour, I don’t know. The “appropriate” thing to do was not give Caltabiano the job in the first place – as far as I’m concerned, Newman can suck it up.

  50. Lizzie –

    1,600 submissions were received on the issue and only seven supported the proposed standard.

    I’m glad this didn’t get up – I was quite offended by the proposal – talk about “adjusting definitions”. Consumers have to use language to make an informed choice; companies can’t just adjust the language to suit their commercial interests in a way that doesn’t fit into what the average consumer understands.

    And thanks Brian Mc for your kind words.

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