Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has maintained its jumpy record of late, the latest result reverting back to 50-50 after blowing out to 54-46 to the Coalition in the last poll three weeks ago. The two 50-50 results Newspoll has recorded have been the best results Labor has received in phone polls since early last year.

James J reports Newspoll is back to 50-50 after inflating to 54-46 to the Coalition in the last poll three weeks ago. The primary votes are 36% for Labor (up three), 41% for the Coalition (down four) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Gillard’s lead as prime minister is up slightly, from 43-33 to 45-34, but her personal ratings are rather less good than in Nielsen: approval 35% (down one) and disapproval 51% (up one). Tony Abbott has again gone backwards, his approval down three to 30% and disapproval up three to 58%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1176 with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Essential Research puts a dampener on things for Labor by finding the Coalition up a point on two-party preferred to now lead 54-46. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (9%). Also featured: 45% expect the UN Security Council seat to be of benefit to Australia against 36% of little or no benefit; 28% support the export of uranium to India against 40% opposed; 39% support nuclear power for electricity generation (up four since the wake of Fukushima) against 41% opposed (down 12); 35% rate the economy in good shape against 29% poor; 37% approve of spending cuts to keep the budget in surplus against 43% disapproval.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll also brings us a finding that only 26% expect the government to succeed in bringing the budget into surplus, against 59% who think it will not succeed (38-47 against among Labor voters, 14-78 amongst Coalition). On the question of how high a priority it should be, 35% said high, 35% said low and 21% said “not a priority”. Thirty-nine per cent agreed that Tony Abbott has been sexist towards Julia Gillard against 45% who disagreed. This breaks down, not too surprisingly, to 35-48 among men against 43-41 among women, and 66-21 among Labor supporters against 13-76 among Coalition supporters. Less expected is the concentration of support for the proposition among the 35-49 age cohort: 44-39 compared with 33-45 with younger and 40-49 with older voters. Those who agreed were further asked about the appropriateness of Gillard’s response, the upshot of which is that 2% of the overall sample felt she underreacted to Abbott’s sexism, 30% thought she got the reaction to Abbott’s sexism about right, 6% thought she overreacted to Abbott’s sexism, 45% thought there was no sexism to react to, and 16% were undecided, indifferent or ignorant of the matter.

Federal preselection news:

• The South Australian ALP has made a poorly received decision to maintain the order at the top of its Senate ticket from 2007, with parliamentary secretary and Right powerbroker Don Farrell having seniority over Finance Minister Penny Wong, a member of the minority Left faction. Farrell won the ballot by 112 votes to 83 for Wong. Anthony Albanese, a powerbroker in the NSW Left, described the result as a “joke” and an “act of self-indulgence”, offering that Wong was “obviously our most talented senator from South Australia”. Third on the ticket is Simon Pisoni, an official for the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union and the brother of a state Liberal MP, David Pisoni.

• Andrew Crook at Crikey reports that Labor will hold a preselection for Dobell in February or March next year. Craig Thomson is suspended from the party, and is thus likely to be ineligible to nominate. Mentioned as possible contenders are David Mehan, described by Crook as the “popular local LUCRF super fund manager”, who was the party’s unsuccessful candidate in 2004 and challenged Thomson for preselection in 2010, and David Harris, Point Clare Public School principal and former state member for Wyong who lost his seat at last year’s election. Emma McBride, daughter of former The Entrance MP Grant McBride, was previously mentioned, but is now said to be “out of the race”.

• Mat Nott of the Fraser Coast Chronicle reports the candidates for Liberal National Party preselection to succeed retiring Paul Neville in the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler are believed to include Maryborough school principal Len Fehlhaber, Hervey Bay accountant Geoff Redpath, parole and probation officer Greg McMahon, Australian Safety and Training Alliance managing director Keith Pitt, and two political staffers – Chris McLoughlin, who works for state Bundaberg MP Jack Dempsey, and Cathy Heidrich, a former newspaper proprietor who works for Paul Neville and is “widely expected to receive at least his unofficial backing”. Michael McKenna of The Australian also mentioned former Isis mayor Bill Trevor.

• Queensland’s Liberal National Party will hold a preselection on November 24 to choose its Senate ticket, with incumbent Ian McDonald set to retain top spot and two vacancies created by the retirements of Ron Boswell and Sue Boyce. Most prominent among the 16 mooted nominees is James McGrath, the party’s campaign director for the state election this year who unsuccessfully ran against Mal Brough for the Fisher preselection after appearing to have the numbers sewn up in neighbouring Fairfax. Also mentioned are LNP vice-president Gary Spence, Toowoomba doctor and university lecturer David Van Gend, Senator Barnaby Joyce’s chief of staff Matthew Canavan, former Queensland Chamber of Commerce and Industry president David Goodwin, barrister Amanda Stoker and animal nutritionist Theresa Craig.

• A legal action that was delaying federal Liberal preselections in New South Wales has been resolved, with the state executive reluctantly agreeing to a allow a motion for rank-and-file preselections and a less interventionist state executive to be brought before the state council. The challenge in the Supreme Court arose from the David Clarke right faction, which was angered that factional rivals on the state executive, which is controlled by an alliance of moderates and the rival Alex Hawke right, had imposed candidates in the marginal Labor central coast seats of Dobell and Robertson. However, Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “any change would require the support of 60 per cent of state council members, which many doubt it would receive”. Among the seats affected by the preselection delay was the crucial western Sydney seat of Greenway.

• Former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh has announced he will seek preselection to run as the Greens Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory. The Greens have been hopeful of winning the second ACT Senate seat from Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries at the past few elections, but have consistently fallen short.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,266 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 103 of 106
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  1. Possum Comitatus
    Posted Friday, November 2, 2012 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    Cud Chewer went:

    Hey Possum,

    Question for you.. Do economists have a separate measure that expresses the notion of productivity-through-technological-improvement ?

    Sort of – it’s folded into what’s called “technical efficiency”. Technological improvement is a component of the way technical efficiency pushes out the productivity and efficiency frontiers (which are the best practice horizons for firms producing X from Y)

    Swift made a pretty good fist of it in Gulliver’s Travels . In Brobdinad (the land of the Giants)the King there said,
    “If someone can produce two ears of corn where only one grew before, he will have done more good for mankind than almost anything else.”

  3. [Louise Pratt is on ‘Kitchen Cabinet’ with Annabel Crabbe next week if anyone’s interested. :)]

    I will lower my standards and watch Annabel.

  6. Mr Bowe,

    [… you have a greatly exaggerated sense of how taxing you are upon a moderator’s patience.]

    To be honest, I’m just teddibly teddibly polite.

    But also to be honest, that is the second-nicest thing that has been said to me today – so thank you!

    Aaaaaaaaand the nicest thing – my 0.2 contract has been renewed for 2012!!!

    (The rest of youse have to know something about university funding these days to understand how thrilling an event this is 😉 )

  7. [ “If someone can produce two ears of corn where only one grew before, he will have done more good for mankind than almost anything else.”]

    Yeah. OK. Know what you mean GD….

    But Monsanto showed they could do that and still screwed everyone. Year after year.

    I much prefer the CSIRO under its original charter.

    It is possible to do really good stuff and still do well….

  8. Aguire

    How is that tough inhumane approach you advocate going? How many boats stopped?
    Is the Indonesian ministers statement right? It cannot work there are just too many people waiting in camps ready to risk the dangerous trip by boat? He says deterrence will not work due to this.
    At least the Greens do not punish people after they make the trip.
    The boats still come.

  10. [The rest of youse have to know something about university funding these days to understand how thrilling an event this is ]

    I hear ya!

    I basically left academia because of the uncertainty. There comes a time when you can no longer live year to year, month to month, day to day.

  11. Ummmm,

    … it’s reely reely late …

    … I wasn’t listening proply, Miss …

    … he put the end of my plait in the inkwell …

    … I really meant that my 0.2 contract has been renewed for 2012 2013.

  12. We Want Paul,
    I will lower my standards and watch Annabel.

    She was good value enough this week to winkle out of Barnaby that most of his immediate family by marriage is Chinese or some other Asian nationality. 🙂

  14. [She was good value enough this week to winkle out of Barnaby that most of his immediate family by marriage is Chinese or some other Asian nationality. :)]

    She is putty in their hands, it is a long unpaid advertisement for her host.

  16. guytaur@5109


    Aguire

    How is that tough inhumane approach you advocate going? How many boats stopped?

    I don’t know. Are you referring to the one that got voted down first time around, or the one that’s been watered down this year, or the one delivered by a bipartisan committee and has only been half implemented so far.

    Even after all that schemozzle I see some of them are going home voluntarily.

    Anyway, as I said I tried to be as fair as I could to what you were saying. Where did I go wrong?

  19. guytaur,
    You appear to have left out the bit where the Indonesian Minister also said that even if Australia agrees to take all the asylum seekers in Indonesia, they will simply be replaced by more from Malaysia. That is, there is no finite limit on the number of asylum seekers in Indonesia. So, do you advocate that we keep taking them from that bottomless pit? And, if so, why them and not any of the others from around the world, as the more of them we take, the less of the others we can offer places in our refugee intake to?

  20. Did someone just hear the introduction to Lateline, saying Romney is ahead?

    WTF?

    What universe are the ABC producers/management in?

  22. WWP@5115,
    She is putty in their hands, it is a long unpaid advertisement for her host.

    I dunno, Peter Garrett appeared to be more in awe of Ms Crabbe than the other way around. He could barely stick whiz his Lasse straight. 🙂

  23. Aguirre

    You go wrong as soon as you assume Labor policy will work. We do not know that. All evidence to date points to the opposite on AS.
    Nowhere has it been possible to stop people flows. The USSR failed to stop AS. This despite being willing to kill those attempting to seek asylum. How is what Labor is doing going to work given this previous evidence? I assume Labor will not be trying to kill those attempting to seek asylum.

  24. cud chewer@5121


    Did someone just hear the introduction to Lateline, saying Romney is ahead?

    WTF?

    What universe are the ABC producers/management in?

    They have been running that meme for weeks.

    No talk at all about ECV ?

  25. http://delimiter.com.au/2012/08/02/sell-off-the-nbn-abbott-wont-confirm-or-deny/

    [“I think that federal and state Labor governments have left us with a serious infrastructure deficit,” Abbott told the ACE Regional Radio Network in Victoria at the time, “and one of the reasons why I’m so hostile to the National Broadband Network is because it’s a $50 billion investment with borrowed money that we don’t need.]

    A: George Orwell would be proud of that one. Why doesn’t a journo point out Howards shocking record on infrastructure?

    B: This is why its important that more people are aware of the lie of the NBN being spending. The more that clearly understand it, the more people will hear what Abbott says and know he’s a barefaced, unadorned, serial liar.

  28. catmomma

    I think Labor policy here is bad. I think it will not work. I want proof it will work not assurances. It has not worked under Howard and not to date under Labor. That is the evidence already in.
    There is certainly no slowing of boats coming.

  29. So sad I missed yet another night of Fran converting absolutely no one to her cause. 🙁

    Did she throw up her favourite buzzwords, ‘kettling’, ‘rendition’, and ‘the regime’, without using them in their proper context as usual? 😉

  30. [Does anyone know exactly which and how many polls will come in before xmas?]

    HOwever many there are, Abbott will remain as LOTO, and Rudd and his forces will continue whiteanting the govt.

    2013 election will see Australia finally rid of both of them.

  31. guytaur,

    I don’t agree with the current AS policy, however just to be contrary I will say that it may be effective but only if we’re prepared to lock people up for anything up to 10 years.

    I’d say the reason why the policy isn’t working is that there’s a lot of AS who reason that the policy will change and that its unsustainable.

  32. guytaur@5124


    Aguirre

    You go wrong as soon as you assume Labor policy will work.

    You go wrong in that Australian people, voters will not accept open entry into Australia. Thats fact.

    I think we are closer to Australia withdrawing from the Refugee Convention then many realise and stating the conditions under which we will accept arrivals.

    Overall numbers will be increased but it will be what voters are prepared to accept.

  37. zoidlord:

    “The statistics” are only really meaningful once we get close to an election.

    Remember all those earnest declarations that the Liberals were poised to secure a Senate majority at the next election? What happened to them?

  38. [I dunno, Peter Garrett appeared to be more in awe of Ms Crabbe than the other way around. He could barely stick whiz his Lasse straight. :)]

    Even more glad I didn’t watch.

  39. guytaur,
    The proof is starting to come in by way of the fact that ‘No Advantage’ Detention on Nauru is already making detainees there reconsider their options and opt to return home. I’m sure taking a very pointed message back with them to their friends and family about what awaits any attempt to follow in their footsteps.

    This may not have stopped the boats appreciably yet, but it can’t be that long before these supposedly poor & downtrodden individuals begin to realise that their money is being wasted on an extended holiday in Nauru or Manus Island.

    I can’t see them paying for the boat journey, risking their lives at sea then gaining no advantage for resettlement, plus a long cooling of the heels in Nauru or Manus. 🙂

  40. cud

    Did East Germany stop people fleeing across the wall?
    Our coastline is a lot harder to monitor than that.
    So boats will still come. Human hope is a powerful force

  42. Guytaur:

    I know, I know, you want to talk about how bad the ALP’s policy is. You always do. I’m sure we’ll get lots of chances in the future to thrash it out. Again.

    But tonight I was characterising the Greens approach to AS. Just getting it straight. All I want to know is whether I got it right or not. I don’t think anyone’s ever got a straight answer from you on that.

    Is it true that there’s no limit under the Greens approach? They can set a number, but I can’t see how they can possibly enforce it if they’re not going to do anything about boats at all. It’ll be planes from Indonesia plus whoever wants to come by boat. Is that right?

  43. [I don’t agree with the current AS policy, however just to be contrary I will say that it may be effective but only if we’re prepared to lock people up for anything up to 10 years.]

    We don’t even need to do that. All we need to do is return them to their original point of departure, ie Malaysia, and create a real queue, and you can bet the boats will stop.

    It’s why the coalition has fought tooth and nail to oppose the Malaysia deal from the outset. They know it will work.

  44. guytaur@5137


    dave

    The Australian people want a solution. They do not want an inhumane cruel failure.

    Australian people do not necessarily accept your preferred outcome.

    Many are at the stage are saying why are my taxes being spent on all this water taxi business.

    Your view are in seriously in a minority and you can talk until you are blue in the face but your will lose it on a straight vote with most Australians.

    Fact!

    Whats up for resolution is a middle ground outcome.

    The Malaysian Solution – OK you disagree, but get used to it.

  45. catmomma

    It would be nice to think you are correct. A few returning does not a successful policy make.
    As I said given past evidence I want proof not assurances.
    Labor has never given proof just assurancein the face of all evidence to the contrary so far.

  46. WWP,
    Never fear, Ms Crabbe appears to be more in awe of Ms Pratt, than vice versa. Probably due to Ms Pratt’s fearless ‘edginess’, which titillates the Adelaide farm girl.

    Now, as you appear to be a Paul Keating fan(that is the ‘Paul’ you want?), did you hear that Eddie Mabo’s widow is coming down to Redfern for the 20th Anniversary of Keating’s Redfern Speech to read it again?

  48. guytaur@5137


    dave

    The Australian people want a solution. They do not want an inhumane cruel failure.

    I think you’re wrong there. I’ve never seen any polling that reflects that attitude. I think a lot of Australians are totally callous when it comes to refugees.

  50. guytaur@5146


    catmomma

    It would be nice to think you are correct. A few returning does not a successful policy make.
    As I said given past evidence I want proof not assurances.

    No you don’t. Proof requires a demonstration, and you’re dead against that.

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