The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the west and Malvern to the south. The areas south of the city include Unley, home to the high school which Julia Gillard attended.
Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Labor’s 27-year-old candidate, Kate Ellis.
In keeping with statewide trends, Adelaide swung solidly to Labor in 2007, by 7.2%, and recorded little change in 2010, swinging 0.8% to the Liberals. The latest redistribution has added 1600 voters in Vale Park to bring the electorate into line with a municipal boundary, which has garnished the Labor margin from 7.7% to 7.5%. The area covered by the electorate swung resoundingly to the Liberals at the 2010 state election, with Education Minister Jane Lomax-Smith losing the Adelaide electorate with a swing of 14.8%, and the eight neighbouring electorates (all of which are partly within the federal electorate) swinging by between 8.5% and 14.3%.
Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the mainstay of the “Catholic Right”, and its powerful state figurehead, Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection following a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).
Her elevation to the position of Youth and Sport Minister after the 2007 election victory made her Labor’s youngest ever minister, at the age of 30 – the previous record holder being Paul Keating at 31. After the 2010 election she was reassigned to employment participation, childcare and the status of women. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis emerged as a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership. Shortly before Kevin Rudd’s challenge in February 2012, she told Adelaide radio that Rudd had approached her and other SDA figures at a hotel to ask how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”.
The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Carmen Garcia, director of Multicultural Youth SA and a daughter of Filipino migrants.
My Guess is 50/50 people just got letters from the bank telling them their new reduced mortgage payments. Hip pocket nerve tends to move polls.
SNIP: Abuse deleted – The Management.
victoria @ 1774
You are so wrong, wrong, wrong.
Re Can’tdo, I have written several letters to the CM bagging the LNP, and of course, not published.
I have been an ALP member since 1993, and have worked on every election since that time – local, state, and federal.
I have worked for Kevin since 1996 when he first stood for Griffith (and lost), and my views on his dumping as Leader are no doubt influenced by that.
I am as strong a Labor supporter as you; it’s just that I won’t cop it when faction heavies try to run the show.
I am un-aligned and vote in party ballots accordingly, and rarely follow any faction tickets.
I really don’t give a stuff if you believe me or not. My conscience is clear.
California barely gets a mention in the American presidential elections, being solidly Democrat. Kinda humbling to compare Oz to California….
California’s population continues to grow while the population in state prisons has shrunk by more than 14,000 inmates, according to new figures from Gov. Jerry Brown’s administration.
New demographic figures from the Department of Finance show that the state’s population is now nearly 37.7 million, an increase of almost 251,000 from last year.
The population in state-run prisons has fallen by more than 9%, or 14,535 inmates, as a result of policy changes signed by Brown last year. Thousands of inmates who normally would be housed at state facilities are being sent instead to county jails, where populations are up by more than 3,100 inmates, to 72,779.
The city of Los Angeles is still the state’s largest, with more than 3.8 million residents, followed by San Diego and San Jose. Los Angeles had the largest number of new residents of any California city, adding nearly 19,000 residents last year.
The Imperial County city of Calipatria is growing faster than any other municipality, growing by more than 4.2%. But the bulk of that increase, state officials say, is due to 286 additional inmates at Calipatria State Prison.
feeney
I bet if you stuck a Cardox shell up your arse, it would not affect your brain, apologise for the slur against the PM you low life.
Victoria …thanks … It read like it was breaking news….
Ah. Looks like PB is back in good technical shape again.
kevjohnno@1799
Most sensible prediction of the evening.
No tin-foil hat stuff in it at all. 😀
outside left
I am not a piece of low life.
I am a loyal member of the ALP but my views of certain persons in the party have been tainted as a result of the events of June 2010. They have left me distressed about the way the factions work and the harm that they can do.
I am not obliged to prove anything to anyone. You’ll just have to take my word for it.
If not, just suck it up, comrade.
Hi Bludgers,
Gee you bludgers are prolific little buggers. Just back from a rellie weekend in Caboolture and trying to catch up – 30 odd pages!
Firstly, Puffy, absolutely over the moon about your prognosis!
Muskiemp, Hoping your news is as equally good and your recovery is as speedy as can be!
You guys have inspired me to view the Asian century speech, but it will have to wait til tomorrow!
BK:
Functioning, but still stuck in that groove.
feeney
There are plenty of Labor supporters on this blog, and the only one that seems to accord with you is bemused. That tells me all I need to know about you
I’ll have a punt and go 52-48 to the ALP and Abbott will be gone within two weeks. You heard it first on PB.
ruawake @ 1768
That’s a classic coming from you – slandering the PM!
What do you think you and your associates have been saying and doing to Rudd on a daily basis?
Now, you apologize, grub!
SK
Hope you had a good time?!
[I really don’t give a stuff if you believe me or not. My conscience is clear.]
You have a conscience ?
[The tsunami warning in Hawaii has prompted over 100,000 people to move to higher ground.]
Well, not everyone has been paying attention –
[8:31pm: Hawaiian media are reporting people are swimming at Waikiki, despite the tsunami warning.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-28/77-quake-strikes-off-canada-west-coast/4337966
The first waves were smaller than expected but there are more to come. Why would you decide now was a good time for a swim?
Feeney, I will never answer to comrade. Compadre, and you’ve got me
[and the only one that seems to accord with you is bemused.]
Vic, you meanz the old fart & the new fart
victoria,
It was great fun! Even managed some girly kid free time!
54s sortius sortius @sortius
@CraigEmersonMP @Thefinnigans there’s many examples of quality & profitable online journalism. The moguls fear losing control.
View conversation
2m sortius sortius @sortius
@CraigEmersonMP @PMenken @Thefinnigans This the problem with the MSM, as profits increased, volume, not quality, increased.
feeney@1809
The curious thing is that most of those who get so hot and bothered about your ALP membership or mine, are not ALP members themselves.
Oh, have you noted that frednk has still not replied to my question, way back at 1625, asking how many members they get along to his ALP branch meetings? That’s almost 3 hours he has had to work out an answer.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/10/media-and-elections?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/momentumwhocares
[Media and elections
Who cares whether momentum is or isn’t real?
Oct 26th 2012, 18:48 by M.S.
EFFORTS by Mitt Romney’s campaign to claim that he has the momentum, and corresponding reports in some media, have occasioned pushback from political scientists and others who think there is no such thing as momentum in a two-candidate race. Nate Silver writes: “In races for the United States Senate, for instance, my research suggests that a candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month (say, from August to September) is no more likely to do so during the next one (from September to October). If anything, the candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month may be more likely to lose ground the next time around.” Jonathan Bernstein writes that momentum is “just a term campaigns use to excite their partisans and to fool gullible reporters into writing stories that create the illusion of momentum that never existed in the first place.” John Sides notes Politico reporters first writing that Mr Romney has the momentum and then walking it back, and says journalists need to make sure they’re pegging reporting to data rather than creating false narratives:
………….
That said, it seems to me that Mr Bernstein is right to propose that both voters and the media should understand the phenomenon of “momentum” as an effect created by the media itself. It would be more accurate for reporters to write: “Mitt Romney’s numbers jumped steadily in the polls after he won the first debate. The favourable coverage from those rising poll numbers may itself continue to win over more voters, unless something happens that leads the press to tack its coverage in the other direction.” But it seems unlikely that reporters will ever write this way.]
Worth reading all of it.
The other seat Christian Porter could’ve gone for is Canning, and in the process potentially unseating the do-nothing Don Randall.
Fair dinkum, Don Randall has done sod all for voters in Canning in the years he’s represented them. He couldn’t even bring them the NBN they’re getting as we speak, instead having to make supportive noises in the electorate while his leader publicly trashed it at the same time.
What a joke!
feeney
[What do you think you and your associates have been saying and doing to Rudd on a daily basis?]
I think you will find I have said very little about Rudd, my disgust with you is your raising the Emerson-Gillard relationship as some kind of debating point, you are filth mate.
Leone, have you ever seen the 7 year swell on the northern shore { cue ‘ride the wild surf’] , now that’s a wave!
@BridgetOFlynn @SuDharmapala I hereby christen it Kevin and The Crudds as a follow up to Maxine & The Rudds, following Margie & The Kidds
[my disgust with you is your raising the Emerson-Gillard relationship as some kind of debating point, you are filth mate.]
Ru +11111
That blue on white stuff on ABC24 is giving me the feeneys.
1735
bemused
Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink
GD @ 1732
What are you quoting and what are you saying?
I can’t tell where one ends and the other starts.
It goes back to a spur posting that Labor still won’t get anywhere because it is appealing to its base, not the broad middle ground.
I gather this is something Rod Cameron alluded to in McKew’s book. But at the time of the comment, it was assumed that federal Labor support was stuck in the low 30s primary and low 40s 2pp. That’s no longer the case, as all polls confirm.
The Finnigans @ 1816
Yes, I do.
Isn’t it usually about now that PvO tweets a taster of the Newspoll …..
ruawake@1825
Are you serious?
Are you really saying that it is not relevant that 2 people were in a relationship and to suggest this may have an influence on ones support for the other?
What planet are you on?
SK
Glad to hear it. Always good to get away and recharge the batteries
Rossmore – not always. Sometimes no one at News Ltd says anything beforehand, especially if there is little movement.
[There are plenty of Labor supporters on this blog, and the only one that seems to accord with you is bemused. That tells me all I need to know about you]
Nice one, victoria.
Was just thinking that the true mouth breathers on this blog who constantly go on about the “gratuitous treatment of Rudd” are the first to turn a blind eye to the misogyny and sexism meted out to Julia Gillard as represented in feeney’s comments tonight.
Unsurprisement.
Gorgeous Dunny@1830
Not wishing to have a go at you but it does help if you use the quoting facilities to indent what you are quoting.
outside left @ 1818
OK, that is noted, Compadre.
What appears to you to be disloyal is more that I am an independent thinker on a lot of issues. The Labor Party encourages us to do this.
That may explain a little of where I come from, compadre.
1822, sometimes the rollup is pretty sad. Last meeting we got into the twenties, with almost equal numbers. Guess which sex was most fired up ,and slightly petulant ?
[Are you really saying that it is not relevant that 2 people were in a relationship and to suggest this may have an influence on ones support for the other?]
Yeah Emmo was screwing Julia so of course he hates Rudd, pull the other cock robin.
victoria,
Didn’t you have a local election this weekend?
Finns, ‘Katrina and the waves’ ?
[I gather this is something Rod Cameron alluded to in McKew’s book. But at the time of the comment, it was assumed that federal Labor support was stuck in the low 30s primary and low 40s 2pp. That’s no longer the case, as all polls confirm.]
Cameron was actually referencing the carbon price with his abstract remarks about blue collar self employed people and Labor.
Whether it was the OO or McKew’s book itself which omitted this salient point is not known, and the person who cited the quote (spur212) who claims to have read the book, wasn’t prepared to say.
SK
Yes we did, and the candidate I voted for, won. A good result.
@Rossmore/1832
It’s 8pm in QLD, so 9pm NSW, about an hour or so i think (if GhostWhoVotes is in NSW).
President Obama is clinging to a slender four-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Virginia as both sides ramp up already aggressive campaigns in the crucial battleground state, according to a new Washington Post poll.
Obama outpolled Romney, 51 to 47 percent, among likely Virginia voters, although he lost the clearer 52-to-44 percent advantage he held in mid-September.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/obama-clings-to-slim-lead-in-virginia-according-to-poll/2012/10/27/6ce69246-2057-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html?hpid=z1
I was at a social occasion last night. Lots of people about and was then introduced to a person from Sydney who starting talking about ‘ragheads’ and how the Government was paying illegal immigrants ‘…a fortune…’
‘Where did you get that complete crap from?’ I enquired sensitively.
Astonished silence. Everyone looking at him as if, instead of the being the prophet on the hill, he was a fool.
He looked like I had clocked him between the eyes. He slunk off.
How enjoyment.
victoria,
Good news! Hanging for the day I can say that here!
confessions@1836
Ahhhh, the “misogyny” card at last.
Just shows the bottom of the barrel has been reached.
feeney @1809.
About a month or so ago you were very vocal in calling me out about the existence of some friends of mine and their opinion of Rudd.
Basically stating i was full of it.
Seems the shoe is on the other foot now.
You do not seem to be handling it very well being called out yourself.
I don’t give a ratz if you are a party member or not. Party membership does not give you superiority over others here even though you and bemused hold it up constantly as evidence of just that.
Your post this evening re the PM and Emmo needs no further comment other than yo say it shows you are no real labor supporter, member or not.
Just a grub.