Seat of the week: Adelaide

Kate Ellis’s electorate of Adelaide is a one-time Labor stronghold which has generally been marginal since the late 1980s, although she has enjoyed a handy buffer in the wake of Labor’s strong statewide performances in 2007 and 2010.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the west and Malvern to the south. The areas south of the city include Unley, home to the high school which Julia Gillard attended.

Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Labor’s 27-year-old candidate, Kate Ellis.

In keeping with statewide trends, Adelaide swung solidly to Labor in 2007, by 7.2%, and recorded little change in 2010, swinging 0.8% to the Liberals. The latest redistribution has added 1600 voters in Vale Park to bring the electorate into line with a municipal boundary, which has garnished the Labor margin from 7.7% to 7.5%. The area covered by the electorate swung resoundingly to the Liberals at the 2010 state election, with Education Minister Jane Lomax-Smith losing the Adelaide electorate with a swing of 14.8%, and the eight neighbouring electorates (all of which are partly within the federal electorate) swinging by between 8.5% and 14.3%.

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the mainstay of the “Catholic Right”, and its powerful state figurehead, Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection following a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Her elevation to the position of Youth and Sport Minister after the 2007 election victory made her Labor’s youngest ever minister, at the age of 30 – the previous record holder being Paul Keating at 31. After the 2010 election she was reassigned to employment participation, childcare and the status of women. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis emerged as a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership. Shortly before Kevin Rudd’s challenge in February 2012, she told Adelaide radio that Rudd had approached her and other SDA figures at a hotel to ask how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”.

The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Carmen Garcia, director of Multicultural Youth SA and a daughter of Filipino migrants.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,009 comments on “Seat of the week: Adelaide”

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  2. [dave
    Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    Anyone making a call on NewsPoll ?]

    The result or if the actually publish?

  4. [DEPUTY Liberal leader Julie Bishop is embroiled in her second plagiarism controversy in a month, last night telephoning a New Zealand businessman to apologise that his words have appeared in a new book under her name without attribution.
    Some parts of Ms Bishop’s essay are lifted word-for-word from a speech the businessman made in 1999 and, in other parts, words have been substituted or changed slightly.

    It is an embarrassment for Ms Bishop and the publishers, Melbourne University Press, that one of the major essays in a book about the future of the Liberal Party was written in part nine years ago by New Zealand businessman Roger Kerr.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/bishop-in-new-plagiarism-episode/story-e6frg6n6-1111117862395?sv=30ca731c57c5bea94a8eae9495e54c65

  5. I got a very strong feeling newsltd will be that desperate for Abbott to get breathing space , i would not be surprise newspoll even gets to a 57-43 %

  6. Oh FFS ABC News – where’s the money coming from is not a question that relates to the China Century Whitepaper, the money has to be made available or we will be the poor white trash.

  7. NewsPoll?

    I’m expecting a slight shift to Abbott. Otherwise, they simply won’t publish it.

    But in the long run, this kind of shenanigans can only delay the inevitable – i.e. Labor regaining the 2PP lead – by a few weeks.

  8. Am still having a chuckle about the american shown on ABC TV News in Sydney commenting on the Gillard Governments Asian Century White Paper.

    The comment went wtte, “Many people will be surprised that the US has been left out and not included in this…”

    Well…the US does not need to be left out of it. Its really up to them.

    In the meantime Australia is saying it certainly doesn’t intend to just stand still and watch. We are going to continue to engage and participate.

    Abbott still searching for a way to yet again say no. But he is worried he is making yet another blunder.

    He is.

    Somethings just never change.

  9. re 1754
    [The new controversy involves her contribution to Liberals and Power: The Road Ahead, a new book edited by academic Peter van Onselen to be published this week.

    Ironically, after the Wall Street Journal controversy, Dr van Onselen wrote in The Australian that if one of his students had done what Ms Bishop had done he would have failed them.]
    How embarrassment for PvO as well!!

  10. [Joe6pack
    Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 7:23 pm | PERMALINK
    C Pyne is quiet because he is furiously trying to look back from all his email,tweet stuff’
    Did you see David Donovan of IA was also talking about Pyne

  12. are going to talk about interest rates and the Hawke-Keating years then we should go back a bit further and study some ancient history.

    Under Fraser and Treasurer Howard interest rates hit an all-time record high of 21.4% in April 1982. Fraser legislated to keep home loan interest rates capped at about 13% because he feared what might happen if he didn’t ‘do something’. This meant thatLEONie

    This is the time i am talking about, when one of frazers,senators said
    get a job. Dear
    three toddlers

  17. The Finnigans 1721

    Face Emmo over what? Is it seriously suggested that good old Emmo’s relationship with Gillard does not affect his view of her?

    Glad to see I’m getting under your skin, comrade!

  18. [Is it seriously suggested that good old Emmo’s relationship with Gillard does not affect his view of her?]

    No it is not suggested by anybody with half a brain cell. Pond Scum like you on the other hand see nothing wrong in slandering the Prime Minister of Australia.

    Apologise Grub.

  19. Puff
    We too.
    David Attenborough has contributed so much over many decades.

    [DEPUTY Liberal leader Julie Bishop is embroiled in her second plagiarism controversy in a month,]
    Leopard? Spots?

  22. Megure bob
    My argument about news poll is

    Who cares they are. NOT THE only poll i think it should be ignored
    Here no matter the result

    Who cares there are three polls on the last post. Arethere. Not

  24. feeney

    What i find extremely curious about you feeney, us your lack of angst about Cando. Other Wlders here remind us on a daily basis how bad Cando is, and of course the latest scandal with a coupke of MPs. But all i find is you slagging off Gillard. Labor my arse

  27. [feeney
    Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

    The Finnigans 1721

    Face Emmo over what? Is it seriously suggested that good old Emmo’s relationship with Gillard does not affect his view of her?

    Glad to see I’m getting under your skin, comrade!]

    It would seem Rudd keeps appropriate company.

  30. my say @ 1772

    I agree, im not worried about newspoll , they lost credibility and were predictable with the abbott and margie stunt

    And people still try to defend them , in a way i hope newspoll does show 57/43 then i wonder if those who try to defend newsltd/newspoll

    will apologise

  32. I’ve been catching up on my TV viewing today and have been watching The Newsroom, created and mosly written by Aaron Sorkin of The West Wing fame. I can highly recommend it. Season 1 has just finished on Foxtel, I recorded it all for a time when I could concentrate and it was so very much worth the wait.

    If you didn’t catch it on Foxtel then download it, buy it, steal it or whatever. Maybe it isn’t quite as good as The West wing, but it’s close.

  33. About Newspoll – I expect that it’ll be pretty much static but I hope it’s better than the last one if only to shut the conspiracy theorists up.

  37. Jeepers! A tsunami warning for Hawaii and the bloody Weather Chanel gives me a waters warning for Margaret River (calm for those interested)!!!!

    WTF?

  39. Julie Bishop … Latest plagiarism story …. ethically and professionally the worst kind of deception. She may blame her staff but presumably she appointed them. If a public servant in any State or Federal jurisdiction made the same error they would quickly fall on their sword.

  41. I like this –
    [david ewart ‏@davidbewart
    I can now see why Abbott doesn’t write down his promises .clearly it’s cos Julie bishop would plagiarize them]

  42. zoidlord:

    Pls don’t put me in the same category as feeney. There is at least reason, rather than blind love to my views.

    I don’t know what’s happening with feeney, but as occurs so often with the Rudd happy clappers, an intense hatred of Gillard appears to be at the centre of it. Very disturbing.

  47. frednk@1752


    dave
    Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    Anyone making a call on NewsPoll ?


    The result or if the actually publish?

    Hey frednk, I am still waiting for an answer to my question.
    How many members do you get at your ALP branch meeting?

  48. [I’ve been catching up on my TV viewing today and have been watching The Newsroom, created and mosly written by Aaron Sorkin of The West Wing fame. I can highly recommend it.]

    I’ve recorded all of the first season, got through half of it, and am loving what I’ve seen so far. It’s brilliant.

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