Seat of the week: Adelaide

Kate Ellis’s electorate of Adelaide is a one-time Labor stronghold which has generally been marginal since the late 1980s, although she has enjoyed a handy buffer in the wake of Labor’s strong statewide performances in 2007 and 2010.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the west and Malvern to the south. The areas south of the city include Unley, home to the high school which Julia Gillard attended.

Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Labor’s 27-year-old candidate, Kate Ellis.

In keeping with statewide trends, Adelaide swung solidly to Labor in 2007, by 7.2%, and recorded little change in 2010, swinging 0.8% to the Liberals. The latest redistribution has added 1600 voters in Vale Park to bring the electorate into line with a municipal boundary, which has garnished the Labor margin from 7.7% to 7.5%. The area covered by the electorate swung resoundingly to the Liberals at the 2010 state election, with Education Minister Jane Lomax-Smith losing the Adelaide electorate with a swing of 14.8%, and the eight neighbouring electorates (all of which are partly within the federal electorate) swinging by between 8.5% and 14.3%.

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the mainstay of the “Catholic Right”, and its powerful state figurehead, Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection following a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Her elevation to the position of Youth and Sport Minister after the 2007 election victory made her Labor’s youngest ever minister, at the age of 30 – the previous record holder being Paul Keating at 31. After the 2010 election she was reassigned to employment participation, childcare and the status of women. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis emerged as a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership. Shortly before Kevin Rudd’s challenge in February 2012, she told Adelaide radio that Rudd had approached her and other SDA figures at a hotel to ask how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”.

The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Carmen Garcia, director of Multicultural Youth SA and a daughter of Filipino migrants.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,009 comments on “Seat of the week: Adelaide”

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  2. “@geeksrulz: Australia’s economy has a AAA by all 3 International Ratings Agencies. No wonder the Libs want to claim credit for last 5 years. #auspol”

  3. A branch meeting on a Saturday afternoon is not conducive to a large attendance, I must say.

    However, anyone familiar with ALP branch meetings would appreciate that they are not generally well attended, for various reasons.

    It was one of the matters referred to in the Bracks Review. Have you read it? No, thought not.

  5. I was a Sales Rep in Brisbane between 1978 and 1990 and I had to visit small businesses every day and listen to them whinge about Keating. while saying what a genius Joh Bjlke-Petersen was. It made me a lifelong Keating supporter.

    My only comment on that period is that the public debate was about what was best for the country and nowadays its “whats in it for me?” . The complaints are coming from those with rising incomes or those with incomes 200%-300% above average.

    Only last Friday in shock jock land I heard both jock and callers agree that if you work hard and get a good rising income you must be able to keep the Govt benefits and payments that helped you. It is unfair to lose them.

    I am saying such an attitude is wrong. I fear this is the Centre or the Middle in Australia right now and they tell me this is the voter that Labor has lost, and we must do whatever we can to get them back. Hence my despair sometimes. As a country we are better than that and the PM’s speech today gives some hope for rising above the entitlement mentality,

  7. [A few more ticks and hopefully Murphy’s computer will sieze up.]

    Murphy – Assault at Ray’s house – tick
    Murphy – Ramjan to sue Kroger – tick

    He has form of getting his tick correct david. 🙂

  8. So PM Gillard launched the future with the Asian Century White Paper while KRudd launched the last century past with i’ve been robbed

  9. “@woolkebb: @JuliaGillard @bobjcarr @CraigEmersonMP Asian White Paper being well received internationally.. well done… our msm?? the usual”

  12. “@BernardKeane: if you have any bad news you have to release today, I’d wait til about 5.50 and release it with an email subject mentioning “Asian Century””

  14. The cash rate from the RBA website:

    Jan 23rd 1990: 17.00 to 17.50

    30 Jul 1993: 4.75

    It went up to 7.5% in 1994 because the RBA was worried about another inflation breakout leading back to what happened in 1990. Both Keating and Howard strongly disagreed with the RBA which is telling but Keating has documented that he had a choice between building the bank so it could function independently or playing politics so he was in a lose/lose position on it.

    http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/cash-rate-1990-1996.html

  15. If we are going to talk about interest rates and the Hawke-Keating years then we should go back a bit further and study some ancient history.

    Under Fraser and Treasurer Howard interest rates hit an all-time record high of 21.4% in April 1982. Fraser legislated to keep home loan interest rates capped at about 13% because he feared what might happen if he didn’t ‘do something’. This meant that everyone who had a non-home loan was subsidising those who did, it led to banks making home loans as scarce as hens teeth because home loans were losing them money and it didn’t do a thing to reduce overall interest rates. At the same time inflation hit 12.5%, there was a wages explosion – wages increased by 16% – and unemployment rose to above 10%. Howard had achieved an appalling trifecta – double-digit interest rates, double-digit unemployment and double-digit inflation.

    Howard then lied about the size of the projected 1982-1983 deficit and left the incoming Hawke government with a black hole of about $9.6 billion, around $64 billion in today’s money. Keating had a hell of a mess to clean up when he became treasuer.

    That’s why I tend to fall about laughing whewnever I hear some Fiberal prat mouthing off about interest rates always being lower under a Coalition government or about how only the Coalition can manage the economy.

  16. feeney@1653


    A branch meeting on a Saturday afternoon is not conducive to a large attendance, I must say.

    However, anyone familiar with ALP branch meetings would appreciate that they are not generally well attended, for various reasons.

    It was one of the matters referred to in the Bracks Review. Have you read it? No, thought not.

    I asked frednk how many he gets at his branch meetings.
    Still no answer.
    waiting…waiting…waiting… 👿

  17. Spur: what do the voters remember?

    Labor: doing the job.

    Liberals: hopelessly divided.

    Only the very, very engaged political classes noticed the meta policy analysis. Everyone else, not so much.

    The media – who deliver the message – were pro-Hawke/Keating. They couldn’t get enough of them – particularly Keating.

    Like Abbott today, he gave them endless, gold soundbites. Consequently, their message to the voters was that Keating was THE MAN and the Libs were hopeless.

    That is why Labor won elections; not because of policy positions or any nuanced differences between the parties.

    The media were barracking for Labor – and the Libs were giving people no reason to believe they shouldn’t be doing it too.

  18. Puffy, BK, TLBD and others in the know: are you getting as excited by Murphy’s tweets as I am?

    They are sounding closer and closer to what we have heard. I just hope the someone who needs to jump is going to jump, rather than sitting endlessly on the edge of the precipice.

    Having said that, though, I hope he looks after himself. If Ashby is anything to go by, he might have an unhappy time ahead 🙁

  19. I am simply amazed and stunned at some of the stupidity here.
    Confessions -Rudd won,t challenge again. He is working for labor to retain his seat of Griffith. He would win it as a independent.
    I didn’t agree with his sacking but so be it and labor would be stupid to revisit any leadership challenge before the next election.
    PMJG is doing a wonderful job and getting better all the time as is in my opinion the media reporting for labor.
    On the other hand there is a shift from the om about Abbott. they have had the fun and coming into a election cycle I think may have realized what a lying .no brain loopy puppet he is.
    The coal. have put all the eggs into a pres. style battle and he doesn’t measure up.

    Lay off the rudd/gillard shit .pull together and labor should win the next election

  20. Danny Lewis

    They were open to a type of voter many sections of the party today simply aren’t open to. That is my point. Not the policies, the openness. It started with Beazley in 1996 and the ALP has suffered from it pretty much ever since

  21. “@DocTwon: Liberal party in South Aust has anti-science anti-Muslim anti-gay loudmouth as its No1 senate pick: where’s the media outrage? #auspol”

  22. spur212@1588


    And in regards to interest rates, what people forget is they went from 17% in 1990 to around 4.75% in 1993. So everytime the Coalition harp on about low interest rates, they fell by 12.25% under an ALP government over a three year period. And does Keating get credit for breaking the back of inflation? No, he’s just the miserable bastard who put the interest rates up in 1990

    Passing strange that the sky high interest rates during the utter misery of howards time as treasurer rarely seem to be mentioned.

    Also howard is the only treasurer in Australian history to ever have simultaneously, the trilogy of misery –

    – Inflation above 10%
    – Unemployment above 10% and
    – Interest rates above 10% (they peaked around 20%)

    Just how many lives, business did howard destroy ?

    All of that has almost been airbrushed out of the history.

  23. “@jot_au: Abbott: I haven’t read the white paper but I know it’s bad because Labor did it…and when I say bad, the media listens.”

  24. “@CraigEmersonMP: AFR hasn’t read Asian Century White Paper but editorial has condemned it as “wishful thinking.” A supposedly reputable business daily?”

  26. dave@1672


    spur212@1588


    And in regards to interest rates, what people forget is they went from 17% in 1990 to around 4.75% in 1993. So everytime the Coalition harp on about low interest rates, they fell by 12.25% under an ALP government over a three year period. And does Keating get credit for breaking the back of inflation? No, he’s just the miserable bastard who put the interest rates up in 1990


    Passing strange that the sky high interest rates during the utter misery of howards time as treasurer rarely seem to be mentioned.

    Also howard is the only treasurer in Australian history to ever have simultaneously, the trilogy of misery –

    – Inflation above 10%
    – Unemployment above 10% and
    – Interest rates above 10% (they peaked around 20%)

    Just how many lives, business did howard destroy ?

    All of that has almost been airbrushed out of the history.

    All good dave.
    The only thing Howard had going for him was that mortgage rates were still regulated so there was not quite as much pain to mortgagees as there would have been if unregulated as they were under Hawke/Keating.

  29. [“@CraigEmersonMP: AFR hasn’t read Asian Century White Paper but editorial has condemned it as “wishful thinking.” A supposedly reputable business daily?”]
    Keep up the good work Emo.

  31. davidwh@1677


    Didn’t Howard as treasurer cap mortgage interest rates when the cash rate went up to around 21%?

    See my 1676
    They were regulated at the time and subsequently de-regulated.
    That is the only reason why they did not go higher under Howard than they did under Hawke/Keating.

  35. Phil Vee@1655

    Only last Friday in shock jock land I heard both jock and callers agree that if you work hard and get a good rising income you must be able to keep the Govt benefits and payments that helped you. It is unfair to lose them.

    Prior to howard becoming PM, both sides accepted that welfare should only go the genuinely needy, the poor.

    Middle class welfare is just not sustainable because of demographics, nor is it equitable. But it can only be wound back slowly unless both sides agree and it will be a cold day in hell when that happens with the likes of an abbott as LOTO.

  36. This little black duck

    RE truckies sitting to close to your rear while driving. unfortunately you will always get idiots .only takes %1 of cowboys to make the image bad for the %99 who do the correct thing

  37. davidwh@1683


    Correct bemused. The Fraser government didn’t get many things right but they did get that correct.

    WHAT!!!!
    The opposite of what I was intending to show.
    Is PB getting to you?

  38. @FrancieJones: @cocococo10 @Maybeee2011 The Catholic church actively and publicly tell parishioners not to vote green, for obvious reasons @ShoebridgeMLC

  39. davidwh
    talking from memory here but didn’t Hawke?Keating take off the cap of 13.5% in 1985? It wasn’t something the Libs got right.

  40. [Correct bemused. The Fraser government didn’t get many things right but they did get that correct.]

    The Fraser Govt did absolutely nothing, they introduced Gough’s last budget then went into a coma.

    Or do people forget odds and even petrol days?

  42. You know what they say about leading horses to water bemused.

    Personally I thought the cap on mortgage rates was the right policy for the time. We were a society and economy in major transformation at the time.

  43. bemused@1676


    All good dave.
    The only thing Howard had going for him was that mortgage rates were still regulated so there was not quite as much pain to mortgagees as there would have been if unregulated as they were under Hawke/Keating.

    Businesses of all sizes coped interest rates over 20%, all punters coped the high inflation and high unemployment, bankruptcies, marriage breakup, etc.

    But as I said, airbrushed out of the narrative.

  45. davidwh@1692


    You know what they say about leading horses to water bemused.

    Personally I thought the cap on mortgage rates was the right policy for the time. We were a society and economy in major transformation at the time.

    WRONG.

  46. Phil yes Keating removed the cap however that doesn’t necessarily mean it was the wrong thing to do in the first place. Sometimes good social policy just becomes unaffordable.

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