The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the west and Malvern to the south. The areas south of the city include Unley, home to the high school which Julia Gillard attended.
Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Labor’s 27-year-old candidate, Kate Ellis.
In keeping with statewide trends, Adelaide swung solidly to Labor in 2007, by 7.2%, and recorded little change in 2010, swinging 0.8% to the Liberals. The latest redistribution has added 1600 voters in Vale Park to bring the electorate into line with a municipal boundary, which has garnished the Labor margin from 7.7% to 7.5%. The area covered by the electorate swung resoundingly to the Liberals at the 2010 state election, with Education Minister Jane Lomax-Smith losing the Adelaide electorate with a swing of 14.8%, and the eight neighbouring electorates (all of which are partly within the federal electorate) swinging by between 8.5% and 14.3%.
Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the mainstay of the “Catholic Right”, and its powerful state figurehead, Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection following a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).
Her elevation to the position of Youth and Sport Minister after the 2007 election victory made her Labor’s youngest ever minister, at the age of 30 – the previous record holder being Paul Keating at 31. After the 2010 election she was reassigned to employment participation, childcare and the status of women. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis emerged as a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership. Shortly before Kevin Rudd’s challenge in February 2012, she told Adelaide radio that Rudd had approached her and other SDA figures at a hotel to ask how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”.
The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Carmen Garcia, director of Multicultural Youth SA and a daughter of Filipino migrants.
I still am convince Peta Credlin doesnt care anymore she has given up, that the coalition can win with Abbott as leader.
She has resigned to the fact the coalition loses by default
So she lets him used the same old lies over and over
Spur, I think, compared Labor in government under Hawke and Keating with Labor in government now.
Not a fair comparison for two reasons:
Firstly, we have a hung parliament, in case it escaped your notice.
Secondly, the Liberal Party was hopelessly divided during that time. The Leadership went from Peacock, Howard, Downer, Howard and the media narrative was what a pathetic mob they were.
There is no way of sensibly comparing what is happening now – both in politics and in the media – with what happened back then.
[Mortgage rates hovered around 10% from my recollection]
That is mine too.
confessions
I just checked historical records. It was around 10% on average
http://www.loansense.com.au/historical-rates.html
lizzie @ 1577
[To the extent that Rudd is working to retain his seat, I applaud him.
To the extent that you are accusing Julia Gillard of disloyalty, you are allowing prejudice to distort your thinking.]
There is no need to make accusations about well established facts.
family and friends who had been laid off, and interest rates were hovering around 17%. It was brutal. Victoria
We new older people who where getti g 15 percent on their savings
While we paid 17 percent on a mortgage,
We said at the time. Well when we get old we may have similar
The joke s on us again 4.75
So every ti e u get releif re mortgage we lose the same in int
O well at least the children are spared. But that was when i started
Selling tupperware and became a manager, i had a goal to pay off the
House i did, tw sold very well through the down turn of course it still does
People where buying quality goods, i did very. Very well
People thi k u dont earn much have i got news for them
It changed my life. Not just the in come but trips overseas ect
MB:
As I understand it, Credlin is pregnant. Perhaps it’s understandable that she wants to focus on other more important things than continually propping up a thuggish goon.
[victoria
Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Permalink
spur212
Mortgage rates hovered around 10% from my recollection]
Your absolutely right morgage rates have never been 4.75% in my lifetime, and my lifetime dates back to when they were regulated.
[Indeed. And that was made easier by the foolish concession that it was a tax.]
But there was a lag between the initial announcement and that concession. Which if you recall, she was getting hounded about beforehand. But to think about this in a different way, I think the problem was in a way one of media. And not in the way we usually talk about it here. The problem is that Gillard’s ‘lie’ (taken out of context) was spoken, and the more accurate statement she also made before the election was printed in a newspaper article. So it was far easier to repeat the soundbite than the longer quote. No wonder the ‘lie’ got so ingrained in people’s minds. The ALP should have gone in harder at the time about how it wasn’t a lie, but what can you do now. The polls are starting to improve, so we can hope that crappy stereotype is dying off.
thanks confessions i didnt know that
victoria:
While I wasn’t a homeowner back then (too young), I do remember my parents going through mortgage stress. They weren’t good times.
feeney@1563,
Why would Rudd want to serve, now or in the future, with a lying, disloyal leader like Gillard?
Why would Julia Gillard want to serve, now or in the future, with a lying, disloyal former leader like Rudd?
He knows the reality of what is happening in the electorate, and is spending buckets loads of money at the moment to retain his seat.
Yes, he’s destabilising the Labor Party and needs to shore up his own position from the general ALP backlash he is helping to foment, by spending, as the 2nd wealthiest MP in parliament, loads of his own money.
Or, could it be that he is having to spend that much money on his own seat because they have worked him out and he is fast becoming as popular as a pork chop in a synagogue in the electorate?
All QLD seats are threatened on current polling figures. Now, does that make you happy?
Definitely doesn’t make me happy, so you should tell ‘Kevin from Queensland’ he’s from the Labor Party and he’s in parliament, not to help himself, but to help the ALP. Then, you both might be surprised to find(though I imagine Kevin already realises the fact), that the polling figures would improve, especially in Queensland, if he overtly became a team player again. As he promised to do, remember?
He may well leave during the next Parliament, as may Gillard and others. Why should they spend another decade or so in Opposition?
So, he’s openly saying that he believes, that without him leading the federal ALP, they will surely end up in Opposition after the next election? And, if that is the case, he will leave parliament because it’s the Prime Ministership or nothing for him? Hmm.
Also, don’t try to ascribe similarly self-serving actions to the Prime Minister. Julia Gillard is no fair-weather ALP MP. Like you appear to be saying that Kevin Rudd is.
If she had to go into Opposition, then so be it would be her attitude, and no doubt she would relish the opportunity to tear down the Abbott government in one term or less.
But, to be sure, the faceless men will live on. Feeney and Farrell are the future of the Labor Party.
Just like Robert Ray and John Faulkner before them, and Anthony Albanese now. And Nick Minchin and Arthur Sinodinos in the Liberal Party.
Or, maybe even the factional chiefs that Kevin Rudd himself sucked up to in order to get to lead the federal Labor Party in the first place. What were their names again? Oh, that’s right, stellar performers Mark Arbib and Karl Bitar.
The lowest i remember was 7 percent we thought we where made
i. Get really angry when people now complain
O well bett get those tas. Scollops under way
[Chris Schacht’s view on SA Senate selections seems to have missed our esteemed media – Wang shafted Schacht does not have the same kind of ring to it.]
Oops! Fancy forgetting Chris Schacht!
Yes, I should have mentioned in my list of people who wouldn’t tow the Machine line that Schacht, a Senator of many years’ standing, was put in the unwinnable 3rd position behind Wong and Linda Kirk (who later lost her pre-selection for embarrassing Farrell’s wife Nimfa by accusing her of a serious misdeed while Nimfa worked in her office) because he refused to align himself with either the Left or the Right.
He was a great Labor Senator, but ended up just another relegated to the scrapheap of history because he wouldn’t play the game 😉
[Or, could it be that he is having to spend that much money on his own seat because they have worked him out and he is fast becoming as popular as a pork chop in a synagogue in the electorate?]
That same thought occurred to me. Interesting too that even the Messiah St Kevin can’t attract more than 50 members to a combined branches meeting.
Perhaps he’s not as popular as some like to think….
confessions @ 1571
You really are off the planet!! There would be a riot in QLD if Rudd was disendorsed. He has a strong supporter base, in his electorate and elsewhere, and I believe could easily win his seat as an Independent
MB:
I recall reading about Credlin here, but not sure when, so I don’t know how far advanced she is in her pregnancy.
[victoria
Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink
frednk
You and I understood it was for the best. That is why I continued to support Labor throughtout, not everyone saw it that way.]
At the time I was a Liberal voter. I now have to admit I strongly support Labor (still pissed of about the refugees) because the Liberal would bave never had the forsight to do what was required.
We saw the same today. A PM talking about where we will be in 13 years time (2025 is only 13 years away) and what has to be done, a Liberal party that is trying to point score for the next news cycle. God I wish the Liberal would add something constuctive to the debate just once. Two parties focused on our future would be better than one.
bemused
[There is no need to make accusations about well established facts.]
I do not believe that Julia was a “lying, disloyal” deputy.
I believe she supported Rudd up until the last few dqays, and even then she tried to negotiate a solution.
Who else was the obvious choice to turn to when the caucus was moving against Rudd?
zoidlord @ 1576
The drug is called REALITY. Try it some time soon!!
Sprocket
The problem with those docs is that they are basically useless until they have a year or two under their belt. It looks like Qld is going to poach other states partially trained doctors and not train it’s own.
It’s a very selfish and bloody minded thing to do.
Wow, can’t believe there’s still more in the Rudd/Gillard tank as far as convos go. Would’ve thought that topic would’ve got old/boring ages ago.
frednk
I was then and continue to support Labor. I spent so much time during the Keating era sticking up for the policy direction Labor was taking. Nobody wanted to hear a bar of it. keating was hated and so was Labor
[Chris Johnson @seearjay
WA Liberals dump federal Party’s wheat deregulation stance: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-28/wa-liberals-reject-federal-wheat-stance/4337526 … JBish told she can sneer as much as she like. ]
[Andrew Elder @awelder
@seearjay She’s Federal Deputy Leader and she can’t even pull a bunch of sand-groping pissants into line. Puts Wong-Farrell in the shade]
Says it all really. What a shame Christian Porter isn’t contesting in Tangney where the incumbent has twice lost preselection by members, only to need higher up intervention to hang on.
[feeney
Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink
confessions @ 1571
You really are off the planet!! There would be a riot in QLD if Rudd was disendorsed. He has a strong supporter base, in his electorate and elsewhere, and I believe could easily win his seat as an Independent]
Is it true he can only get 50 members to a branch meeting?
[chris murphy @chrismurphys
@DCR_AU @PMenken @TonyAbbottMHR tick tick tick for Tony. There’s a major scandal in the wings…tick tick #auspol]
Teaser!
ltep:
It’s Sunday. What do you expect? 😉
aul Keating – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Keating Through the 1980s both the global and Australian economy grew quickly and by the late … monetary policy, and household interest rates peaked at 18 percent. …
See. I new i never imaginedit it not hover arou d 10 percent,
Itwas 18
Some. Times. I. Think u youger ones here think i know very little
I lived it, people even took their lives
Every time we mowed our acres we. Gathered the grass for the farmers
Who could not afford to feed their cattle
The libs here just had an add aski g people to join
[Would’ve thought that topic would’ve got old/boring ages ago.]
It did.
Logged off yesterday and have just logged on – to bloody Rudd again!!
How anyone can think that he is either relevant or interesting is beyond me. He was an ordinary FM who shot himself in the foot with a typically self-undulgent, impulsive, immature reaction from the other side of the world and relegated his stupid self to the back bench where he rightly remains, ding what he does best – looking after his own self-interest.
He is so yesterday’s man – like many here who keep banging on about yesterday when it is all about tomorrow and our future.
Get over it!!
[ltep
Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Permalink
Wow, can’t believe there’s still more in the Rudd/Gillard tank as far as convos go. Would’ve thought that topic would’ve got old/boring ages ago.]
Even as Rudd passes into history his spear carries fight the good fight, and there seems to be many that want to say, “up yours” as they pass by.
Is Chris Pyne on Holiday?
I didn’t know Peta was pregnant. Congrats to the happy parents. Does anyone know how far along she is?
[David Donovan @davrosz
@zackster As it happens, I have info about Christopher Pyne coming from various sources. ]
Chris Murphy’s ticking clock?
[david ewart @davidbewart
Good of the BBC to report Gillard Asian century address favourably. Fouck you Australian media.]
Anyone seen the BBC report???
Thanks to ru and I think, Fess, for answer re: hung parliament in A.C.T. yesterday. I feel like a drongo for not knowing about Clarke Hare, but at least now I’m a better informed drongo.
BTW, any stabs at possible Newspoll figures?
I’ll go 51/49 LNP/Lab
muttleymcgee
Don’t blame us, blame the “excitement” generated in the media by THE BOOK. 🙂
C@tmomma 1612
Kevin has never asserted he is the Messiah and is the only one who can lead Labor to victory. I’m stating that Labor is doomed to Opposition. And you know it.
You obviously don’t live in QLD, otherwise you would see the reaction Rudd gets wherever he goes.
It’s why Labor MPs all over the country ask him to visit their electorates. He is popular.
Hitherto, until recent times, I have admired Gillard as a clever, intelligent, likeable person. I no longer support her as Labor’s leader. Her behaviour during the 2010 events was snide, sneaky and self-serving.
I now understand, too, why Tanner has never been a fan of hers.
But she’s got good old Emmo supporting her. Now, that’s another story I could tell you all about.
sprocket
I know nuthink.
I thought the Credlin pregnancy thing was just one of those Twitter rumours.
[But she’s got good old Emmo supporting her. Now, that’s another story I could tell you all about.]
What that she drunk his contact lens when they were shacked up together. So what, slimeball.
feeney
If you keep on like that I will start picking green leaves for you.
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 6:07 pm | Permalink
sprocket
I know nuthink.]
It would be sad if we lost Pyne to some scandal. In my view, he runs a close 2nd to Abbott in alienating voters. Abetz and Bernardi run a long 3rd behind this pair.
@Feeney/1620
Both you and Confessions are not in reality.
That is the point.
Both of you are making irresponsible posts.
Victoria
The cash rate, which is where the political pissing contest is mainly played. The Hawke/Keating government broke the back of inflation and the Australian economy has had 21 years without a recession since
frednk@1625
How many do you get along to your branch meetings?
ruawake @ 1641
No, you clown! Emmo drank Julia’s contact lenses when he got up to have a glass of water in the bathroom during the night.
You can’t even get basic facts right, wombat!!
@william7424: Ambitious Asia plan to power Australia: PM Gillard – TV Balla http://t.co/9Qt4PqB1 Reported from Straits Times #alp #auspol
“I was married to a strong woman, the son of one & I was the father of one,” Mr Rudd writes – oh dear, didnt we hear similar from Abbott?
Danny Lewis
It’s completely fair in terms of who the ALP targets. Now they’re hopelessly going after an ever diminishing base instead of targeting the service economy. They’re stuck in the industrial age!
Part of the reason the Coalition were so divided during that period is because Keating had a firm grasp of who was needed to win. I’ve seen footage of the Coalition complaining about the small business community advocating for Labor policies and Andrew Robb (who was the federal director of the Liberal Party at the time) saying they should be backing the Coalition for no reason other than they weren’t Labor. Keating had them psychologically up a tree during the 93-94 period before Howard came along