Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin has been held by Labor without interruption since its creation, but like all the party’s Queensland seats has looked precarious during the worst of its polling during the current term. The seat came into being with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, at which time it extended far beyond the bounds of the metropolitan area to the south-west, encompassing Warwick and a stretch of the New South Wales border. It is now located wholly in the outer south of suburban Brisbane, covering the northern part of Logan City from Woodridge and Kingston north to Priestdale and west to Hillcrest. The redistribution before the 2010 election drew it further into the metropolitan area, adding Algester, Calamvale and Drewvale north of the Logan-Brisbane municipal boundary. This territory accounts for much of Brisbane’s mortgage belt, and furnishes the seat with the equal lowest median age of any electorate in Australia. The Logan area is the source of Labor’s strength, but it is balanced by naturally marginal territory around Calamvale to the west and Springwood to the east.
Prior to the 1996 election, the seat was a highly marginal combination of Labor-voting outer suburbia and conservative rural areas, which Labor held by margins of between 0.6% and 5.5%. It was then transformed with the transfer of the rural areas to Forde and the compensating gain of low-income Brisbane suburbs, which boosted the margin by 9.8%. In the event Labor needed every bit of it to survive the Queensland backlash of 1996, which in Rankin manifested in an 11.1% swing. An unfavourable redistribution ahead of the 2004 election cut the margin by 5.3%, but there followed a 0.8% swing against the statewide trend at that election, followed by a 8.8% swing when the Rudd government came to power. The backlash of 2010 produced a swing to the LNP of 6.3%, cutting the margin to 5.4%.
Rankin has had only two members since its creation: Craig Emerson since 1998, and David Beddall beforehand. Emerson emerged through the Labor Forum/Australian Workers Union sub-faction of the Queensland Right, working over the years as an adviser to Hawke government ministers and then to Hawke himself, before taking on senior state public service positions in Queensland under the Goss government. After one term in parliament he rose to the shadow ministry, serving in the workplace relations portfolio in the lead-up to the 2004 election. He was then contentiously dropped after losing the support of his faction, a legacy of his defiance of powerbroker Bill Ludwig in supporting Mark Latham’s successful leadership bid in December 2003 (which by no stretch of the imagination spared him the lash of The Latham Diaries).
Emerson’s career returned to the ascendant after Labor came to power in 2007. spent the first term in the junior small business portfolio and further acquired competition policy and consumer affairs in June 2009, before winning promotion to cabinet as Trade Minister after the 2010 election. On the morning of the July 2010 leadership coup he announced he would support Kevin Rudd if it came to a ballot, but he took a very different tack during Rudd’s February 2012 challenge, accusing him of having undermined the government ever since the election campaign. Emerson achieved, for better or worse, considerable penetration of the soft media in July 2012, with his semi-musical critique of the Coalition’s campaign against the carbon tax.
An LNP preselection in July 2012 attracted six candidates and was won by David Lin, a 39-year-old Taiwanese-born solicitor who founded the Sushi Station restaurant chain at the age of 22.
Darn
True.
confessions – fair enough. What’s your twitter name by the way? Mine is @leroy_lynch
Er, so when are the next polls?
scorpio:
Pleased to hear your report.
Thank you.
Hopefully there’ll be a Nielsen this evening. Tomorrow’s Essential should be interesting, because we’re due for their monthly personal ratings. This will include approval ratings broken down into strongly/somewhat approve/disapprove, rather than just plain old approve and disapprove, which should tell an interesting story in light of recent events. And unlike the voting intention results from Essential, it will have been conducted entirely over the past few days.
Boerwar@1500
Read my 1496.
It is a bit much seeing all this sudden tender concern for a senior public servant when day after day there are all sorts of derogatory statements made about others including journalists for example.
I get a strong whiff of hypocrisy.
Darn,
[And now we’re about to get a Nielsen poll which for the past year or so has kicked the shit out of us the most. There are times when I think we must all be a bunch of masochists.
Ok, I feel better now]
I was about to do something narsty to you until I read your last sentence.
However, to be serious, one of the reasons that I’ve been somewhat “down” over the past few weeks is the continuous, relentless hammering of a pretty reasonable government, and a fine – one day to be recognised as an outstanding – Prime Minister.
We know what the power/commercial imperatives are (yes, Fascism, I’m looking at you now.) But it does get a bit wearing after a while.
Nevertheless, as I said to a colleague yesterday, I’d far rather that this government goes down with all guns blazing in the defence of the have-nots of our country and world than meekly kow-towing to Mordor.
Now, my friends, I am going off PB and may be some time – at least seven days. Teaching Week for me, and lots to do.
Interesting that people are focusing on bureaucrat Halton during the children overboard affair when it is the Cabinet at the time which embraced and truly defended the children overboard stuff.
IMO Max Moore Wilton, as head of the then PM’s dept deserves greater scorn (he had a public face at the time IIRC), but seemingly because he is a man, he escapes the high dudgeon of the hand wringers here who instead turn their fire upon a woman underling.
Not good enough in my view.
cud chewer
Its been assumed a Nielsen should come out tonight as its four weeks since the last one, but no one (on here or on twitter) seems to know for certain. No Fairfax journo has said anything about it either way that I can see. Newspoll would be next weekend. Otherwise, that just leaves Essential tomorrow.
William, if I have made any defamatory or otherwise untoward comments will you kindly remove?
Thanks.
Leroy:
I think I follow you, although I’m a very infrequent twitter user. I don’t really have the time for working, life, PB, and twitter.
🙁
Did you have anything in particular in mind, Bemused?
confessions@1508
IMHO Max Moore Wilton was a disgrace. And that is putting it mildly.
William @ 1512
I had others suggest comments I made about Jane Haldon may have transgressed.
If in doubt, toss them out.
would the cat upset the pigeons if Nielsen came out 50-50?
Won’t of course but would be fun
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
This is an example of why we have pathetic political analysis – commentary based on polls based on randomness http://twitpic.com/b428cd
9:54 PM – 14 Oct 12
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
When your commentary is based on poll movements more than two points off the underlying reality, you’re simply making shit up
9:54 PM – 14 Oct 12]
Next poll will have Coalition ahead with 55-57% on 2pp.
Labor, and Dullard, in particular, have gained no traction on the whole sexism/misogynist tirade, indeed, they will have gone backwards, Dullard’s speech might have won favours in latte land and goodie-goodie metropolises such as New York and London but it will be seen of poorly in the suburbs and mortgagees where the votes matter most.
Time for most of you to consider getting a visa for Cuba….
My bet is Nielsen will have the government in a losing position and the spin will be that a) Gillard was 100% in the wrong and should resign and, sadly, b) Sexism isn’t a real thing, so stop complaining.
Pessimistic I know, but it seems like the only questions that were seriously entertained this week were “Will this win the PM support?” and “Was the PM wrong to say those things about the Opposition Leader” with both sides offering their usual partisan spin and point scoring.
Nobody has seriously bothered asking “What if the PM actually did feel offended? Do other women feel the same way? ” and rather than coming to the usual partisan conclusions about which side is better, conclude that maybe it’s time to review the language we use and the actions we take, so that nobody, male or female, left or right, can feel victim to bigotry.
But no, that’s too hard an approach. Let’s just go the partisan football match approach.
Steven Kaye,
[… but it will be seen of poorly in the suburbs and mortgagees where the votes matter most.
Time for most of you to consider getting a visa for Cuba…]
On the contrary: time for you to consider acquiring some slight understanding of English grammar.
Steven Kaye,
I’d be fascinated by your definition of “mortgagees”.
Nice to see that there’s some agreement for once.
Make Mirabella Minister for Women! That will shut the latte drinkers up once and for all!
SK
[…goodie-goodie metropolises such as New York and London…]
Boris will be absolutely shattered.
I meant people paying their mortgages
Steven Kaye
I think you got your directions wrong. The blog you want is here
You think Australia’s not sophisticated enough to handle a proper examinataion of sexism, do you Steven? Who knows, you may be right. We’ll see. The press certainly don’t seem to have the foggiest idea how to handle it.
And what a treat it is to hear the name Dullard, and latte-land as well. Ah, takes me back. We even got a Communist reference.
Steven Kaye
Actually where it matters most the pms speech has been well received.
It Is probably only in your private school dormitory where you sit and giggle and think you are clever by making up such witty names for the PM by substituting a couple of letter’s that it has not gone down well.
Do you wish Alan Jones was your Dorm Master?
[Next poll will have Coalition ahead with 55-57% on 2pp.]
If you’re proved wrong about that, will you agree never to say anything again?
Steven Kaye,
[I meant people paying their mortgages]
Ah, those people (and companies) are called mortgagors – the ones who give the mortgage over their property. The banks/finance companies/loan sharks are the mortgagees – the ones who take the mortgage – and all too often take the mortgagors for a ride that ends with the mortgagors (and their guarantors – the ones who give the guarantees that the mortgagors will repay) losing everything. But then, the mortgagees are the risk-takers, so why shouldn’t they?
fiona
Where are your eyes? Or are you another fiona?
Guys, he called you a communist, referred to Gillard as “Dullard” and then used the condescending term “latte drinkers”, do yourself a favour and don’t engage him. Life’s too short.
[Make Mirabella Minister for Women! That will shut the latte drinkers up once and for all!]
I had to wiki it. Michaelia Cash is the Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for the Status of Women. Six of one, half a dozen of the other. Haven’t heard much from her (fortunately)
Steven Kaye @ 1523
[ I meant people paying their mortgages ]
Surely anyone with a mortgage would vote ALP given that their interest payments are thousands of dollars a year less under the Government than under those economic clowns and vandals Howard & Costello.
Scorps
I am glad to hear little Eli is doing so well and may be home earlier than expected. It is good there is a close family and you can support each other. Thanks for the update. 🙂
Cedric Conan should start making a return soon.Close to 1 yr out
Boerwar,
My eyes are, as always, above my cute little nose and even cuter whiskers (and under my supercilia).
I tried to change my gravatar, and it seems not to have worked. Will try again 🙂
SK
Conservatives no closer to the Treasury Benches than 26 months ago.
Primary vote barely changed.
Weep and gnash teeth sport.
Nouakchott is abuzz:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-14/military-patrol-accidentally-shoots-mauritania-president/4312074
fiona:
Is that you…..?????
f
Thank goodness. I thought the style and the verve were right but it did not seem quite the same, all the same.
Just one more viewing Le Monde’s l’implacable tirade anti-sexisme de la première ministre australienne Julia Gillard
“j’ai ete offensee”: so Zola/Dreyfus 😀
Random, but someone might know… Does Australia import any flour from overseas for use here?
Confessions and Boerwar,
Yes, moi tried to turn into a cockroach, but it didn’t work. Moi is now trying to revert to her own furry self.
Jane Halton did as she was told and she did it very well. As far as I can remember she told no lies.
She was Howard’s / Reith’s tool.
Good night all.
fiona:
Thank heavens! Was having distinct confusement moments there for a while.
gloryconsequence
We do, although might not be a lot.
http://www.ausfoodnews.com.au/2012/07/16/food-imports-surge-into-australia-with-imported-fruit-and-vegetables-near-top.html
[Food imports surge into Australia with imported fruit and vegetables near top
July 16, 2012
Luna Rushdi]
Voila – épatant!
Confessions,
[Was having distinct confusement moments there for a while.]
So wuz moi – kept tripping over my six feet 🙂
Has anyone heard from Grey? He has not come back and I remember he mentioned something about having some problems of his own when he signed out.
Grey, if you are reading this, please come back. There is a spot in the PB lounge for you. 🙂
feetpawsThis cross-species thinggy is doing my head in.