Seat of the week: Rankin

Recent polling may have steadied his nerves a little, but senior minister Craig Emerson remains no certainty for re-election in a seat that has stayed with Labor since its creation in 1984.

Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin has been held by Labor without interruption since its creation, but like all the party’s Queensland seats has looked precarious during the worst of its polling during the current term. The seat came into being with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, at which time it extended far beyond the bounds of the metropolitan area to the south-west, encompassing Warwick and a stretch of the New South Wales border. It is now located wholly in the outer south of suburban Brisbane, covering the northern part of Logan City from Woodridge and Kingston north to Priestdale and west to Hillcrest. The redistribution before the 2010 election drew it further into the metropolitan area, adding Algester, Calamvale and Drewvale north of the Logan-Brisbane municipal boundary. This territory accounts for much of Brisbane’s mortgage belt, and furnishes the seat with the equal lowest median age of any electorate in Australia. The Logan area is the source of Labor’s strength, but it is balanced by naturally marginal territory around Calamvale to the west and Springwood to the east.

Prior to the 1996 election, the seat was a highly marginal combination of Labor-voting outer suburbia and conservative rural areas, which Labor held by margins of between 0.6% and 5.5%. It was then transformed with the transfer of the rural areas to Forde and the compensating gain of low-income Brisbane suburbs, which boosted the margin by 9.8%. In the event Labor needed every bit of it to survive the Queensland backlash of 1996, which in Rankin manifested in an 11.1% swing. An unfavourable redistribution ahead of the 2004 election cut the margin by 5.3%, but there followed a 0.8% swing against the statewide trend at that election, followed by a 8.8% swing when the Rudd government came to power. The backlash of 2010 produced a swing to the LNP of 6.3%, cutting the margin to 5.4%.

Rankin has had only two members since its creation: Craig Emerson since 1998, and David Beddall beforehand. Emerson emerged through the Labor Forum/Australian Workers Union sub-faction of the Queensland Right, working over the years as an adviser to Hawke government ministers and then to Hawke himself, before taking on senior state public service positions in Queensland under the Goss government. After one term in parliament he rose to the shadow ministry, serving in the workplace relations portfolio in the lead-up to the 2004 election. He was then contentiously dropped after losing the support of his faction, a legacy of his defiance of powerbroker Bill Ludwig in supporting Mark Latham’s successful leadership bid in December 2003 (which by no stretch of the imagination spared him the lash of The Latham Diaries).

Emerson’s career returned to the ascendant after Labor came to power in 2007. spent the first term in the junior small business portfolio and further acquired competition policy and consumer affairs in June 2009, before winning promotion to cabinet as Trade Minister after the 2010 election. On the morning of the July 2010 leadership coup he announced he would support Kevin Rudd if it came to a ballot, but he took a very different tack during Rudd’s February 2012 challenge, accusing him of having undermined the government ever since the election campaign. Emerson achieved, for better or worse, considerable penetration of the soft media in July 2012, with his semi-musical critique of the Coalition’s campaign against the carbon tax.

An LNP preselection in July 2012 attracted six candidates and was won by David Lin, a 39-year-old Taiwanese-born solicitor who founded the Sushi Station restaurant chain at the age of 22.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,969 comments on “Seat of the week: Rankin”

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  3. Shanas is a special case, as William points out, having to try and manufacture something from an impossible situation, but what of the rest of the Press Gallery?

    Oakes at least has seen the reaction and has cautiously given approval to the speech. Most of the rest haven’t got that far.

    I didn’t have the strength to read Grattan, but the lead of her story was enough: nobody wins from the gender wars or WTTE. It seemed so like the Black Knght in Monty Python after having lost all limbs, grudgingly hopping away and muttering,
    “All right, I suppose we can call it a draw.”

  6. [While the Prime Minister’s office claimed a success for Ms Gillard on the international coverage, some Labor MPs believed there was too much emphasis on Twitter and blog sites and not enough on domestic media reaction.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pms-speech-goes-from-bad-ass-to-bad/story-fn59niix-1226494771520

    The Press are really feeling threatened.

    ‘Some Labor MPs believed … ‘ – if Shanahan actually talked to ‘some’ I think I could name at least 3 or 4 of the MPs that he would pick to call.

    It’s very much an attitude of it doesn’t matter what the voters think about events – it’s more what a group of about 30 or so journalists/media commentators decide to put out there that they think is important.

    If this was presented in an article clearly as facts first then opinion, example –
    [There has been strongly expressed support and interest domestically and a lot of interest internationally then followed by Shanahan saying that in his opinion and in the opinion of some people said to be Labor MPs, but not prepared to be named, that the circumstances that bought about the speech may have ‘soured as people argue over the substance of her speech’.]

    Then I’d give it some credit but not in the ‘style’ this article is written in.

    Frankly, his article is ‘crap’.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Are there no bounds for human gullibility?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/happy-science-cashes-in-on-new-age-fears-in-sydney-20121012-27i6t.html
    Cathy Stoner must be some sort of nut case.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/deputy-premiers-wife-gives-oakeshott-both-barrels-for-slipper-vote-20121011-27frq.html
    A fantastic Mike Carlton column this morning starting with a moving story about his old mum.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/oh-for-a-glimpse-of-the-mum-i-knew-20121012-27i0m.html
    Ron Tandberg is really down on Abbott.

  11. [Desert Fox
    Posted Saturday, October 13, 2012 at 6:09 am | Permalink

    Gorgeous Dunny,

    Do you believe Abbott hates all women, ie, is an actual misogynist?
    ]

    Culture sets the meaning of a word. Gillard created a cultural event. In the Australian context, by definition a misogynist is Tony Abbott.

    A person who loves his wife and daughters and perhaps even his chief of staff, but stands under sighs that say “ditch the witch”, “browns bitch”, punches the wall on either side of a womens face, believes that women do not have the genes to hold high office and that a bunch of old men should control their reproductive organs.

  12. [New2This
    Posted Saturday, October 13, 2012 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    STFU Is that like covering your ears, closing your eyes and yelling lalalala.]

    Sounds about right.

  13. And from the Land of the Free –

    Paul Ryan’s debate performance was not too good according to this summary.
    http://elections.americablog.com/2012/10/whats-the-difference-between-sarah-palin-and-paul-ryan-lipstick.html

    Cop this for a non-answer from Ryan on abortion.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/10/12/photoh-woman-in-ca-reacts-to-paul-ryans-abortion-answer-video-at-vp-debate/
    And Joe Biden sorted him out on the issue.
    http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/biden-exposes-ryans-extremism-abortion
    Biden cleans Ryan up on the stimulus.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/11/joe-biden-paul-ryan-stimulus_n_1959966.html

  15. [CTar1
    Posted Saturday, October 13, 2012 at 7:08 am | Permalink

    frednk

    Sounds about right.

    Or it could be that trolls don’t like it.]

    Depends on how it is used. Even Trolls bring a point of view, and on this blog they only live until William ties of them.

  18. [CTar1
    Posted Saturday, October 13, 2012 at 7:25 am | Permalink

    frednk – I don’t use it myself. Fully equipped with a ‘scroll’ wheel.

    🙂 ]

    Chuckle, Exactly.

  20. I hate to break ranks here, but I don’t actually think Abbott is a misogynist within any reasonable definition of the word. I don’t think he hates women as a category. In this he differs from Alan Jones, who clearly does hate women, for reasons we all know. What Abbott is is a ideologically conservative Catholic, and therefore a militant anti-feminist. What he hates is not women per se, but feminist women – that is, women who function independently of male approval, who compete with men for power, and who deny, implicitly or explictly, the Catholic view of how women ought to behave. That’s why he hates Gillard, an unmarried career politician. I’m sure he doesn’t hate Julie Bishop, even though she’s an ambitious woman, because Bishop succeeds through pandering to male expectations with her middle-aged sex-kitten routine.

  21. [Sounds about right.]

    I see STFU as more akin to those protective ear muffs one wears to stop one’s hearing being damaged by industrial noise.

  23. Good morning, fellow Bludgers!

    The sun is up.

    The birds are singing.

    Labor is still in government.

    Julia the Magnificent is still Prime Minister.

    Tony the Moron is on the ropes.

    The BISONs are still doing their thang.

    That is all.

    (I thought I’d leave my ladyparts out of it this morning. Well, except where I mentioned them just there) 😀

  25. I think that long discussion regarding is Tones a classic misogynist or just disapproves of independent women is a waste of space – the effect is the same.

  27. [Psephos
    Posted Saturday, October 13, 2012 at 7:39 am | Permalink
    …
    Julie Bishop, even though she’s an ambitious woman, because Bishop succeeds through pandering to male expectations with her middle-aged sex-kitten routine.    ]

    I’m curious as to why Abbott considers Credlin, not Bishop to be the leader of the opposition.

  28. My son’s first cricket match today and I have been assigned umpiring duties.

    Judging by practice during the week, I may be doing the wide signal a bit.

  29. shellbell@28


    My son’s first cricket match today and I have been assigned umpiring duties.

    Judging by practice during the week, I may be doing the wide signal a bit.

    shellbell
    That will teach the coach to use the video of John Howard’s bowling!

  30. [CTar1
    Posted Saturday, October 13, 2012 at 7:49 am | PERMALINK
    I think that long discussion regarding is Tones a classic misogynist or just disapproves of independent women is a waste of space – the effect is the same.]
    Yep, unfortunately some men just don’t get it.

  34. [CTar1
    Posted Saturday, October 13, 2012 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    I think that long discussion regarding is Tones a classic misogynist or just disapproves of independent women is a waste of space – the effect is the same.]

    Given that misogynist has long been a political term, what it is depends on where you sit. Mistreatment of women is in the dictionary definition; what constitutes the mistreatment of women is definitely cultural; with many putting the excellent description of Abbott’s problems above in that category; in fact if I recall correctly the PM has done just that.

    What is it to be “left wing” is in the same category.

    I do however see the point, if Abbott “by definition” is misogynist, what is Allen Jones?

  37. Perhaps the way to separate Allan Jones and Abbott is to call Abbott a “centralist misogynist” and Allen Jones a “right wing misogynist”.

  38. I believe the mysoginy of LOTO comes not from his respect of loved ones or the women in his coalition etc. but from his distrust and suspicion of those women who are not moulded in a “Matronly” or “Motherly” way.
    You will notice his submission to those women who rushed to his defence (Mothers all?), almost in a comforting way…and are not the majority of mysoginist males little boys at heart…ask Grattan!

  39. [What Abbott is is a ideologically conservative Catholic, and therefore a militant anti-feminist. What he hates is not women per se, but feminist women – that is, women who function independently of male approval, who compete with men for power, and who deny, implicitly or explictly, the Catholic view of how women ought to behave. That’s why he hates Gillard, an unmarried career politician. I’m sure he doesn’t hate Julie Bishop, even though she’s an ambitious woman, because Bishop succeeds through pandering to male expectations with her middle-aged sex-kitten routine.]

    Agree Psephos. He hates the very thought that females be considered his equals and that many could rise to be his betters. In Abbott’s mind, women were given to men by his God to pander to their every want and need, to obey and provide succour when they stuff up. That’s why he describes Julie Bishop as a ‘good loyal girl’.

  42. @TheKouk: Mr Abbott’s election pledge? “There will be no carbon facts under a government I lead” #auspol

    Now there is a slogan

  46. Morning all.

    This column is not normally a psephological one but contains some very interesting stats on Alan Jones audience, confirming our perceptions. Over 50% are over 65, and only 7% vote Labor.

    Also some interesting snippets on Karl Stepanovic as Alan Jones’ “pal”
    [Jones’s great mate, the Today host Karl Stefanovic, was effectively skewered by Channel Nine’s political guru, Laurie Oakes, who forced a clearly reluctant Stefanovic to comment on Jones’s Gillard gaffe. Oakes later accused Stefanovic of taking the ”Tony Abbott line”.
    Jones has been a great supporter of Stefanovic, once giving him an interest-free loan to buy a house.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/private-sydney/karl-caught-in-jones-washup-20121012-27i7o.html#ixzz297fpmewA

  48. 16
    ruawake
    [I see Shanners can count you tube hits like polling trends – twit.]

    In fairness to Mr S, this new fangled zero thing is still a little confusing. I mean, they all look the same to me.

  49. I would agree completely with Psephos’ characterisation of Abbott ‘s thoughts on women at 20, but would add two caveats:
    – this preference for subservient women makes healthy realtionships with female peers impossible
    – it is still pretty close to misogyny, and it certainly isn’t respect.

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