Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

The first polling conducted since the Prime Minister’s polarising parliamentary speech on sexism and misogyny finds both leaders with their highest “strongly approve” ratings in well over a year. On voting intention however, the Coalition maintains its solid lead.

This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 36%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week: the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. With very good timing, it also offers us Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which unlike the voting intention figures are derived entirely from the most recent period of surveying from Wednesday to Sunday. These figures are also of particular interest in the current environment in that they involve a four (strong approval, approval, disapproval, strong disapproval) rather than two point scale. This finds Julia Gillard gaining two points on strong approval since last month to 9%, her best result since February 2011, while also gaining four points on the milder approval measure to 32%. Her combined approval rating of 41% is her highest since May 2011. Her combined disapproval rating is down three points to 51%, also her best since last May, with strong disapproval steady at 27% and the milder disapproval rating down three to 24%. Opinion of Tony Abbott would appear to have polarised even further: he is up three on strong approval to 9% – his best result since December 2010 – but also up two on strong disapproval to a new high of 31%. His overall approval is up five to 37%, and disapproval down one to 54%. Gillard has opened up a seven-point lead as preferred prime minister of 43-36, its highest since February.

The survey also gauges attitudes to the presidential election, finding Barack Obama favoured by 63% to just 9% for Mitt Romney, with Obama leading 53-18 even among Coalition voters. Respondents were found to have an overwhelmingly more favourable view of their own country than the United States with respect to access to health care and jobs, standard of living for ordinary people, and other such. The US obviously rated higher on “international influence”, but even here 17% felt able to conclude Australia’s was “better”. Respondents were also asked about climate change, with much the same result as when the question was last asked a year ago: 48% believe climate change is occurring as a result of human activity, with 39% plumping for “we are witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,610 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Diog must agree with you at 4449 about smoking and the companies getting away with any responsibility whatsoever due to agreements made with courts so that they were free from court actions or law suits.Fortunately I was one of the lucky ones as I was able to get a double lung transplant but even with that it took 3 years of my working life away maybe even 8 years because of my age and ongoing medical condition with of course no legal recourse for me.

  2. Fiona..4554..My least cherished memory of Mateus Rose is of one of our “Cafe’Club” group of pisspots at “Charlie’s Restaurant” in Darwin in the early seventies…one : “Hopkirk” boozingly banging by the neck a dead-marine of Mateus on the table and calling the “GARKON” (you better believe it!!)for more wine.
    But hey! those days in Darwin, one third of the population was high, one third pissed and the remaining third regretting ever coming there!

  3. I posted here a few weeks ago concerns about progress on the NBN I had heard. Various posters assured me I was only hearing partisan rumours. Now I read this
    [EXECUTIVES at the company building the national broadband network pocketed more than $600,000 in bonuses last financial year despite the project running a year behind schedule.
    The NBN Co annual report, which was released late on Friday, also reveals about $500,000 in termination payments.
    NBN Co confirms in the report that the rollout of the network is a year behind schedule, with just 24,000 homes and businesses connected at the end of September – about 10 per cent of the original target.]

    With luminaries like Mike Kaiser involved I am shocked! In fact, I note from Mike’s modest bio on the NBN website he doesn’t even mention his time in Qld parliament. He does mention his BEng, even though I don’t know anyone who worked with him profesionally before going into a political career.

    I have an increasingly bad feeling about this.

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