Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

The first polling conducted since the Prime Minister’s polarising parliamentary speech on sexism and misogyny finds both leaders with their highest “strongly approve” ratings in well over a year. On voting intention however, the Coalition maintains its solid lead.

This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 36%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week: the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. With very good timing, it also offers us Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which unlike the voting intention figures are derived entirely from the most recent period of surveying from Wednesday to Sunday. These figures are also of particular interest in the current environment in that they involve a four (strong approval, approval, disapproval, strong disapproval) rather than two point scale. This finds Julia Gillard gaining two points on strong approval since last month to 9%, her best result since February 2011, while also gaining four points on the milder approval measure to 32%. Her combined approval rating of 41% is her highest since May 2011. Her combined disapproval rating is down three points to 51%, also her best since last May, with strong disapproval steady at 27% and the milder disapproval rating down three to 24%. Opinion of Tony Abbott would appear to have polarised even further: he is up three on strong approval to 9% – his best result since December 2010 – but also up two on strong disapproval to a new high of 31%. His overall approval is up five to 37%, and disapproval down one to 54%. Gillard has opened up a seven-point lead as preferred prime minister of 43-36, its highest since February.

The survey also gauges attitudes to the presidential election, finding Barack Obama favoured by 63% to just 9% for Mitt Romney, with Obama leading 53-18 even among Coalition voters. Respondents were found to have an overwhelmingly more favourable view of their own country than the United States with respect to access to health care and jobs, standard of living for ordinary people, and other such. The US obviously rated higher on “international influence”, but even here 17% felt able to conclude Australia’s was “better”. Respondents were also asked about climate change, with much the same result as when the question was last asked a year ago: 48% believe climate change is occurring as a result of human activity, with 39% plumping for “we are witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,610 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Fran @4524,

    Excellent post 🙂

    Yep, tragic comedy at its finest. Did you hear Abbott trying to say “yes its ok to have a seat on the SC” and “it cost waaaaaay too much money” in the same breath? And right on cue he goes “tens of millions of dollars!!”.

  2. Maxine pads up for Kevin’s Eleven…

    [FORMER high-profile Labor MP Maxine McKew has accused Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s office and her backers of an “offensive and sexist” smear campaign against her following allegations that her upcoming book on the ALP had been ghost-written by Kevin Rudd.

    Ms McKew has also accused the government of leaking confidential correspondence between her and the PM as part of a slur on her professional reputation.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-news/sexist-labor-book-slur-says-maxine-mckew/story-e6freuzi-1226499612255

    This Kevin stuff is getting a bit tired now, isn’t it?

    How long can it go on? Surely not until the next election?

  3. Its a tactic of pushing every number for maximum emotional effect.

    Like with the NBN… Actual capital expenditure $37B. But, that’s not scary enough. Lets use some intellectually dishonest spin and shout $50B.. Oh no.. that’s not having enough effect.. lets scream $100B!!

    And they did just that.

  4. Allan Moyes,

    I don’t remember the Ponderosa Cafe, but my parents were very careful about moi and the Monaro Mall…

    Yes, Swains! And Verity Hewitt’s (though that was when I was a bit older – my tales of Cheshire’s were from almost as early as I can remember (very early 1960s) to approx 1967, when life changed for various reasons.

    Isn’t it fascinating how certain wine brands/labels mark one’s life?

    For me, the height of sophistication when I was 17 was Mateus Rose, and then – very daring – Castel Garcia. One of the ironies there was that my parents were part (very commmon back then in Canberra) of a bottling group – so they would bring in a cask of something interesting, bottle it, and lay down the results under the house. Well, that’s what my parents did, and my introduction to interesting and aged wine was definitely through that process.

  7. My most cherished memory of Canberra was the Mayfair Cafe, a kitchen on wheels at one of the service stations (Mobil I think) near Civic.

    Run by a Chinese guy. Best hamburgers in The World. Whoever was losing at poker would be “volunteered” to go get the burgers.

    Also Mungo McCallum, pissed, standing on a table pontificating, at the Old Union Bar.

  10. Black Duck

    I agree with you re La Rustique. The city has changed out of sight since my youth, for the better in the main, although the profusion of rather similar glass and chrome apartment blocks in the city is becoming an eyesore to me, rather than enhancing the natural beauty of the city with its view of the hills.

    Still, I do love the place and, having lived there for around 40 years, it was a bit of a mistake to up sticks and move north. It was a classic case of “it seemed a good idea at the time”! I take Zoomster’s point but there is a big difference between one’s late teens and 20’s and one’s late 50’s when it comes to moving, unless there are compelling reasons to do so.

  13. Bushfire Bill

    The Centre Cinema. It opened with Doctor Zhivago and when it closed many years later, it closed with Doctor Zhivago! It was briefly a sort of art house chinese kung-fu film venue but I think it is now demolished.

  14. Another interesting thing about recent polling is the suring up of the Senate for Dems:

    A uniform 3%+ swing is needed for the Republicans to get it to 50:50
    A uniform 4%+ swing is needed for a Republican Senate

  16. Been to Canberra many times as my family have had close friends there over many years which have enabled out of towners like myself to live for literally years in various Canberra houses seeing the Canberra those who live it every day see it. Love it. Not nearly as much as home town Melbourne, but it is fantastic and a dead heat for second with Hobart.

  17. [Bushfire Bill

    The Centre Cinema. It opened with Doctor Zhivago and when it closed many years later, it closed with Doctor Zhivago! It was briefly a sort of art house chinese kung-fu film venue but I think it is now demolished.]

    That’s it! The Centre Cinema.

    I remember seeing Bridge On The River Kwai there with Pat Sorby.

  18. cud chewer@4551


    Fran @4524,

    Excellent post

    Yep, tragic comedy at its finest. Did you hear Abbott trying to say “yes its ok to have a seat on the SC” and “it cost waaaaaay too much money” in the same breath? And right on cue he goes “tens of millions of dollars!!”.

    He said “many tens of millions of dollars”. Even in Watership Down the rabbits could count to three.

  19. Black Duck

    Electric Shadows would fit the bill – being downstairs – but I have a hunch BB may be thinking of the Centre Cinema. It opened to great fanfare with “automatically reclining seats” whose only purpose was to give every man there very painful testicles as their trousers rode up whilst they slid forward. No amount of contrary movement seemed to help! And Dr Zhivago was a very long film!

  20. [Mod Lib

    Posted Friday, October 19, 2012 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Another interesting thing about recent polling is the suring up of the Senate for Dems:

    A uniform 3%+ swing is needed for the Republicans to get it to 50:50
    A uniform 4%+ swing is needed for a Republican Senate
    ]

    My guess is it will be a republican presidency, with a reduced republican house and a democrat senate. Which would reflect an equivicating country not quite sure of itself at the moment.

  27. Speaking of US politics, Former Senator and 1972 Democratic Presidential nominee, George McGovern is apparently at death’s door. He is dying and apparently no longer responsive, which means he will pass very soon.

    Very sad. Although, yes, he got his arse handed to him in 1972, I have always had respect for the man.

  28. [My guess is it will be a republican presidency, with a reduced republican house and a democrat senate. Which would reflect an equivicating country not quite sure of itself at the moment.]

    I reckon its Dem POTUS and Senate and bare Republican House (made up of extremists rather than centrists so not boding well for compromise and consensus politics)

  29. MsAdventure

    For my sins – Beenleigh. Cue derisive laughter! 🙂 I have a brother and his family here and only about 10 minutes away but for all intents and purposes he may as well be in Burundi.

    I’ve also lived in Elanora on the southern part of the Gold Coast and Banora Point just over the border but that was for work purposes and my (part-time) job down that way was cut back so much that it made it uneconomical to stay there, hence my return to my “villa” in Beenleigh.

    Yes it was advertised as such by the real-estate agent! It’s actually a two bedroom townhouse with front and back courtyards and LUG. Still it beats a cardboard box in’t middle of road!

  31. [I reckon its Dem POTUS and Senate and bare Republican House (made up of extremists rather than centrists so not boding well for compromise and consensus politics)]

    Ditto.

    Although Boehner is much more pragmatic than some of his colleagues, so his leadership may help if their majority is slim.

  32. Greensborough Growler@4413


    vic,

    Fox is a Bundoora candidate. Apparently, a lot of his signs are pitched on public land which is apprently illegal.

    Do what I do , and pull them down and bin them. The Libs round my way , stick them every where and any where. I don’t wait for the council to remove signs , the election is usually over by the time they come out. Must of cost them a fortune , as I picked them off 1 by 1 , they even tried to put them on the army camp fence ?

  33. Black Duck @ 4575

    Ah! Tar and Cement – Verdelle Smith’s only No 1 hit. Have you heard it in French sung by Francoise Hardy? Not bad.

  34. Allan,

    Nothing wrong with Beenleigh. Do you have a “live feed” to the rum?

    I used to live in Acacia Ridge. Just up the road, really.

  36. Well folks it’s past the witching hour down south. Up here of course it’s only nearing lunch time (bloody daylight saving) so I am off to bed as I have a flight to Sydney tomorrow which I’d rather not miss. I’m home later that day so nothing too exciting.

    Goodnight all. Catch you later.

  38. AM
    My commiserations, on both the return to the ‘Villa’ and also being south of the Brisbane River.

    I have found there are really only 2 kinds of Brisbanites, one is either a Southsider or Northsider. I happen to be fortunate enough to be a Northsider as a matter of fact so much so to be classed as outer North, just shy of being part of the Sunnie Coast.

    All joking aside I find Brisbane a much friendlier place than my previous home of Sydney.

  39. Black Duck

    Funnily enough I’ve never tasted Beenleigh Rum. The distillery has had a checkered history and went out of production a few times. My understanding (and I could be wrong) is that there is now some connection with Lion Nathan. The old sign which could be seen from the highway for years has a proud spot in the Beenleigh Heritage Museum which you may know is a collection of historic houses of various periods in Beenleigh’s history. Also includes the old railway station, schoolhouse and police station. Quite fascinating.

  41. Xi Jinping is only eight years older than JGPM. Maybe they are learning.

    Now, if only he could manage to get his shoe caught on an overseas visit ..

  42. MsAdventure

    I’m sure you’re right and I enjoy my visits to Brisbane. Alas the budget at the time did not stretch to my preferred location which would have been much closer to (and north of) the river.

    Beenleigh itself has a lovely “country town” feel to it (which was I will admit, part of its original attraction) but, alas, and this is going to sound snobbish and unkind, Logan City, of which we are now part, having been moved from the Gold Coast after I moved here, is in very large parts of it the pits. There are gems scattered amongst the dross, but not too many unfortunately, and with that come many anti-social and criminal problems.

  44. Since when does 2 glasses of red get me feeling so sleepy? Nah. It must be staying up to watch the UN vote. Worth it though. 🙂

  46. Give Campbell Newman enough time and we won’t have to joke about north/south of the river because he will have sold it off and diverted it inland for irrigation.

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