Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

Newspoll’s famous 50-50 result of three weeks ago is left looking more than ever like an outlier, with the latest result coming in four points higher for the Coalition. Meanwhile, the less erratic Essential Research continues to trend slowly Labor’s way.

AAP, for some reason, reveals that the Newspoll to be published in The Australian tomorrow will have the elastic jerking back after the 50-50 anomaly of three weeks ago, with the Coalition now leading 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 33% for Labor (down three), 45% for the Coalition (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). However, Julia Gillard has improved further on her strongly recovering personal ratings last time, holding steady on approval at 36% and dropping two on disapproval to 50%, producing her best net approval rating since April last year. The wide gap which opened on preferred prime minister last time has narrowed only modestly, coming in at 43-33 in Gillard’s favour rather than 46-32. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also improved, his approval up three to 33% and disapproval down five to 55%.

Today’s Essential Research had Labor gaining a further point on the primary vote to 37%, with the Coalition steady at 47%. Essential has shown Labor gaining five points on the primary vote over six weeks, to reach a level not seen since March last year. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 53-47. Essential has smartly chosen this week to repeat an exercise from a year ago concerning trust in media personalities, finding Alan Jones among the most famous but least trusted (22% trust against 67% do not trust). The others best recognised were Laurie Oakes and George Negus, with the former slightly edging out the latter on trust (72% compared with 69%). Only 17% registered support for funding cuts to the ABC, with around a third each wanting funding maintained or increased. Opinion on government regulation of the media was fairly evenly spread between wanting more, less and the same.

UPDATE (9/10/12): The latest Morgan face-to-face result, combining its surveys over the past two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 37%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43% and the Greens up half a point to 10.5%. The Coalition’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is steady at 52-48, but they have gained a point on the 2010 election preferences measure to lead 51-49.

Senate-heavy preselection news:

• Barnaby Joyce’s lower house ambitions for the next election have foundered with Bruce Scott’s determination to serve another term as member for Maranoa. Joyce will not challenge Scott for preselection, saying to do so would be “self-indulgent personality politics”, despite the impression many received from his declared opposition to the locally contentious purchase of the vast Cubbie Station by a consortium led by Chinese interests. Unidentified Nationals quoted by Dennis Shanahan of The Australian “maintain Joyce had the numbers for preselection over Scott but it was going to be an ugly and drawn-out affair”.

• Two of the Queensland Coalition Senators whose terms expire after the next election have announced they will not seek re-election, leaving only 2007 ticket leader Ian MacDonald. Ron Boswell, who has been in the Senate since 1983 and was re-elected from number three in 2007, surprised nobody by announcing that at the age of 70 the time had come to bow out. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports those in contention to take his place on the LNP Senate ticket include David Goodwin, the Boswell-backed president of the Queensland Chamber of Commerce and Industry, along with LNP vice-president Gary Spence, LNP treasurer Barry O’Sullivan, and Barnaby Joyce staffer Matt Canavan. Liberal Senator Sue Boyce today announced she would not contest the next election as she wished to spend more time with her family, while acknowledging her preselection would have faced opposition from forces who perceive her as too moderate. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported that other applicants are likely to include David Moore, who worked on Campbell Newman’s election campaign. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported that hopefuls for a Senate position included David Moore, an LNP operative whose activities as a lobbyist were recently criticised by Clive Palmer.

• Chris Ketter, state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, has been preselected to top the Queensland Labor Senate ticket. The number one candidate from 2007, Senate President John Hogg, will retire. The second and third elected candidates from last time, Claire Moore and Mark Furner, will retain their old positions, a gloomy prospect for Furner in particular.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports that Labor in South Australia will not promote Penny Wong to the top of its Senate ticket, despite the “bad look” of having the position instead go to one-time Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association state secretary Don Farrell on the strength of his Right faction’s control of between 55% and 60% of the votes at the party’s state convention.

• Long-simmering hostilities between the NSW Liberals and Nationals over the seat of Hume have come to an end, with the Nationals agreeing not to field a candidate against Liberal candidate Angus Taylor in his bid to succeed retiring Liberal Alby Schultz. Senator Fiona Nash had most frequently been nominated as a potential candidate, together with state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson.

• Bob Carr told reporters last week that were Robert McClelland to retire in Barton, he could not think of a better candidate to succeed him than his own successor as Premier, Morris Iemma. However, McClelland insists he has no plans to do so.

• As anticipated, former Australian Medical Association president Bill Glasson has been confirmed as the LNP candidate to run against Kevin Rudd in Griffith. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was once Nationals member for the rural seat of Gregory and a minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments. Other names mentioned in relation to the preselection were John Haley, Alfio Russo and John Adermann, who stayed with the process to the end, along with Angela Julian-Armitage and Wayne Tsang, who dropped out at an earlier stage.

• The Mercury published extensive results on Saturday for polling of state voting intention in Tasmania, conducted on behalf of the Liberal Party by ReachTEL. The figures, which make for dismal reading for Labor, are detailed below, and have been thoroughly analysed by Kevin Bonham at the Tasmanian Times. The poll also found Liberal leader Will Hodgman favoured by 57.3% ahead of 22.9% for Premier Lara Giddings and 19.8% for Greens leader Nick McKim, and that 34.4% opposed the forestry “peace deal” against 28.2% support.

	 Lyons	 Bass	Braddon	Denison	Franklin Total
 
Labor 	 22.3% 	 17.4% 	 23.2% 	 18.5% 	 27.6% 	 22.7%
 
Liberal  55.7%   62.9%   56.8%   36.5%   46.3%   51.5%
 
Greens   13.6%   13.6%   14.6%   23.2%   19.4%   17.7%
 
Other	  8.4% 	  6.1% 	  5.3% 	 21.9% 	  6.7% 	  8.1%
 
Sample 	  233 	  230 	  232	  241	  238	  1174

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,136 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [We can only hope that there is the diplomatic equivalent of Cybil Fawlty on hand to say “He’s from Barcelona”.]

    😆

  2. This is going to sound sexist, and believe me from a househusband of 10 years bringing up two kids FULL TIME it will sound very sexist.

    BUT.

    Don’t you love that word? Not me, not really!

    There is a lot of, I hate to say it because it is wrong, but there is a lot of what I would call ‘soft’ anger out there.

    Driven by the mum at home with bubs demographic.

    Not huge numbers overall. But they do read bits of the shitsheets and watch the shitrags calling themselves breakfast TV.

    I’m a househusband and have experienced discrimation for the first time in my life (lets just say on a different level).

    I can only imagine what it might be like for a woman bringing up a baby with little work qualifications to enter the market.

    Shitstorm really.

    Not good. Although, relatively speaking, Australia is great with options before and after birth.

    How is that for equivication!

  3. [And people wonder why the PMs speech has gone viral?]

    Everyone knows a wife who is beaten, a woman who has been rpd, Howard would have explained it as that was the way the things were as he did with the kiddies.

  4. [The general consensus outside of Labor is that Abbott is not a misogynist in the strict sense of the word something even Oakeshott conceded on Lateline.]

    The trouble is your average person doesn’t seem to understand what the word technically means, as demonstrated by my work colleagues who agreed Abbott is a misogynist because of the sexist way he speaks about women.

    Suffice to say I felt no obligation to correct them on their understanding of misogyny. 😉

  5. fiona @ 5941
    […reassure the alpha males that the women (1) won’t attack the alpha males…]
    Reminds me of a rather long sojourn through Italy, where I was shocked by the number of paintings of “Judith and Holofernes” to be found in art galleries all over the place; deep seated psychological concerns there

  6. [ou’d better get tweeting so we can all interact!]

    Zoomster – what is Ian’s twitter link plse. I can’t find the post he made

  8. deflationite

    My hubby was a househusband for years – and was for a long time the only male at Mothers club (which was hastily renamed Parents Club).

    At that time of his life, at least, most of his closest friends were women, some of whom he spent far more time with than he did with me!

  9. Dave 5918
    Dan Gulberry 5893
    Couldn’t agree more – I have long thought that JG will take her place on the world stage as she has enormous respect and admiration overseas – an example is Mary Robinson first female President of Ireland who became United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. JG will then get the recognition she justly deserves. Sadly it will be Australia’s loss.

  10. Confessions the great thing about our democracy is that even ignorant people get to vote and their vote is equal with everyone else.

  13. [zoomster

    Posted Friday, October 12, 2012 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    deflationite

    My hubby was a househusband for years – and was for a long time the only male at Mothers club (which was hastily renamed Parents Club).

    At that time of his life, at least, most of his closest friends were women, some of whom he spent far more time with than he did with me!
    ]

    I would like to give a fist pump to your partner for their contribution to househusbanhood.

    Pioneers must be suitably recognised.

    I just hope that in decades to come we will be acknowledged for being prudent in not saying yes to every coffee or muffin invitation cloaked as a suburban hit. 🙂

  16. davidwh,
    Go have a look at the Action Plan for Domestic Violence. Look at what is revealed in terms of the extent of the problem, in particular, and these people vote!
    Have you any idea?
    It’s O.K. to bash/rape/they asked for it.
    Seriously?

  17. [castle
    Posted Friday, October 12, 2012 at 8:36 pm | PERMALINK
    About 6 months ago I had a great night at the local club. When I got home I opened a twitter acct. I haven’t been game enough to use it as I registered ‘ausjournosrscum’. In fact I don’t even know if I can change the name. Let alone how twitter works.

    I’ve thought of going on twitter but don’t know how it works, good on you]

    Castle just call up twitter log in and you will see new account just follow instructions and you will be on, expect to waste a lot of time but it is great fun.Isn’t it The Finnigans last seen in Octopus Tony’s grasp in the Octopus Kingdom., Then just put your Twitter name on PB and you will get some followers

  18. davidwh

    [Confessions the great thing about our democracy is that even ignorant people get to vote and their vote is equal with everyone else.]

    As they say, not all right-wingers are ignorant but all ignorant people are right-wing.

  19. [Confessions the great thing about our democracy is that even ignorant people get to vote and their vote is equal with everyone else.]

    Actually I don’t particularly think that’s a great thing at all, but the alternative (voluntary voting) delivers far worse outcomes in terms of those who ultimately get elected.

  20. Laocoon@5903


    My goodness, talk about timing. Review in today’s AFR of a book by one Hanna Rosin

    The end of men
    And the rise of women


    Yikes

    Don’t worry too much guys, women are generally kinds to pets. 👿

  22. [The end of men
    And the rise of women

    Yikes

    Don’t worry too much guys, women are generally kinds to pets. ]

    No chance of that with certain religions around.

  23. New2This@5907


    John Hewson told Sky News: “Yes, the Prime Minister gave a great speech, but I gather the band played pretty well as the Titanic went down as well.”

    Funny you should mention John Hewson…

  25. http://www.news.com.au/technology/why-every-text-message-and-email-youve-ever-sent-is-up-for-grabs/story-e6frfro0-1226494234955
    [Why every text message and email you’ve ever sent is up for grabs
    By news.com.au staff
    news.com.au
    October 12, 2012 12:12PM

    How private are your private conversations?
    Texts and emails kept on record for years
    Can only be accessed by authorities with just cause
    Your say: Are you concerned about your privacy?

    NOTHING is private, as Peter Slipper found out the hard way this week. But is it just people in the public eye who need to be careful what they say and write?

    The Peter Slipper case has highlighted the possibility that every text message or email you’ve ever sent could one day be used against you.]

  26. confessions

    [Actually I don’t particularly think that’s a great thing at all, but the alternative (voluntary voting) delivers far worse outcomes in terms of those who ultimately get elected.]
    Not necessarily so.New Zealand has voluntary voting but it still has as a percentage of eligble voters a turn out only a couple of percent different from Australia’s.A turn out that historically was/is often higher than compulsory Australia.

  27. deflationite – my OH ran his business from home for quite a few years and that gave me the opportunity to return to work.

    He was glad he had that time with the kids and I was so pleased to be doing something I enjoyed. Thank dog for fathers who are willing to do it.

  29. Roy Orbison, lyne lady, BH and Mari @ various posts:

    Thanks for your supportive comments.

    I certainly will post any response but surprisingly (not) there has been nothing to date.

    I was also incensed enough at various blog and SMH on-line articles to write to Tony Abbott (stock response from his office, ie nothing of substance), Paul Sheehan and Bronwyn Bishop (no reply from either of them) but I’ll let you all know.

    The funny thing is I’d been out of the loop (no TV, radio, computer etc) and didn’t even know the story had occurred until a phone call from my sister. I don’t know – you do a Rip van Winkle for a couple of days and all hell breaks loose. Are we at war yet?

    I’m certainly overwhelmed at the international response, not to mention the story going viral. No wonder the MSM feel in a bunker mentality – they are realising their irrelevance.

  30. I’m at a complete loss to understand how the conclusion reached in 5966 was arrived at from anything I posted so honestly don’t know how to respond.

    But yes people I loved dearly were subjected to most of those things so I do know how much it hurts when you are basically powerless to do anything.

  31. poroti

    [A turn out that historically was/is often higher than compulsory Australia.]

    While I am a strong kiwiphile, particularly scottish-haka I find it hard to believe that a voluntary electoral system would get over 90% turn out!!

  32. B.C #5875

    That’s a very good post. To add to it – you may not be aware of the other ticking bombs that have now been entered into evidence detailing literally dozens of prurient unsolicted texts from the former speaker to the staff member which will lead to sensational cross exanination if the sexual harassment case goes ahead.

    Oakeshott and Windsor were in the position that they both shared “ownership” with the govt of the then Speaker having given it the green light late last year after reassurances from Albo there would be no more “issues”.

    Knowing what might be in the pipeline, it is therefore not surprising that both of them used the mussell texts to prevail on Slipper to resign. Given the govt also knows what could be coming, it just surprised me that it apparently tried to persuade the cross benchers to keep backing Mr Slipper?

  33. poroti
    Posted Friday, October 12, 2012 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    @BernardKeane Nationals senator Fiona Nash has accused the PM of conducting a “war on men.”

    Hmm. A pattern is forming. Coalition men hide in bunkers and send out women to defend them 😆

    The problem with the Nash theory is the assumption that Abbott’s a man.

  35. On joining twitter, I’d tried for years and couldn’t get going, and I’m a part time software developer !

    After following some of the people here I’m away, I love it, makes every other media including a lot of online ones glacial.

    I’d listened to the PMs speech riveted, and when the ABC link first appeared on twitter I posted it to reddit.com/r/australia where i do most of my online social stuff, you get karma points for comments and links submitted, in three+ years I had 300 link points, the link for the speech scored almost 1500! I can’t recall a higher total in the /aus subreddit, I can’t recall one over a 1000.

    It didn’t quite make the front page 1-25, highest rank was 32, which for a 15 video is pretty great given it’s not a meme or cat photo which you can look at and upvote in seconds or about the US.

    If you wanted to try reddit, you need to create an account, then disable all the default subreddits and just join your special interests, else it’s just noise.

  36. poroti:

    I don’t know anything about the quality of MPs in NZ, but if voluntary voting there is producing similar turn-outs to here, there must be something else in the mix.

    By contrast, look at the local government elections in WA, where voluntary voting seems to ensure that the dreggs rise to the top and are elected.

    I’ve lived in many local government areas in WA, and am yet to encounter a truly functional council that transcends mere basic levels of competence.

  37. Ran into a former lecturer/tutor of mine today. He mentioned how great he thought Gillard’s “sexism” rebuttal was the other day and, without any provocation, stated that the Australian media seem to live in their own universe, then expressed specific annoyance with Grattan.

    So, that kind of thing doesn’t only exist on Poll Bludger… although, he is an academic, so I imagine he’d be painted as living in an ivory tower away from reality.

  39. davidwh@5960


    Confessions the great thing about our democracy is that even ignorant people get to vote and their vote is equal with everyone else.

    Now you’ve just given me nightmares David 😉

  40. swamprat
    [While I am a strong kiwiphile, particularly scottish-haka I find it hard to believe that a voluntary electoral system would get over 90% turn out!!]
    Ah grasshopper. There is a difference between % of voters on the electoral role that vote and the % of the population elegible to vote who do. 🙂 Now to show you that the Scots /Kiwi /Maori thang works both ways…
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkDFMEzLdGA

  41. [t’s O.K. to bash/rape/they asked for it.]

    lynach monica Just a few words but they filled abused women with dread in Court rooms and caused many not to go ahead with the case. It’s a difficult area to work in. I applaud you.

  42. [Hmm. A pattern is forming. Coalition men hide in bunkers and send out women to defend them]

    Have to use those ‘loyal girls’ for something

  44. confessions
    [poroti:

    I don’t know anything about the quality of MPs in NZ, but if voluntary voting there is producing similar turn-outs to here, there must be something else in the mix.]
    The candidates are just as crap BUT.There is history and the fact that the greatest menace to western democracy is not so large there.Think Mordor.

  45. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/media-diary/jessica-wright-gets-federal-gig-at-fairfax/story-fnab9kqj-1226494000599
    [Jessica Wright gets federal gig at Fairfax
    by: Nick Leys
    From: The Australian
    October 12, 2012 12:00AM

    FAIRFAX Media will today announce the appointment of Jessica Wright as federal political correspondent for both The Sun Herald and Sunday Age across all platforms.

    Wright, formerly political reporter for the National Times website, replaces Sunday Age journalist Misha Schubert who is now employed by You Me Unity and Stephanie Peatling, who will stay in a senior writing role with the company.

    The daughter of veteran Age journalist Tony Wright, Jessica Wright has worked for The Canberra Times and as political correspondent for the Sun Herald previously, filling in for Peatling.]
    I understand she will be working on investigations for the Sunday editions of the Fairfax papers. She’s had some good stories, so worth keeping an eye out.

  47. poroti

    [There is a difference between % of voters on the electoral role that vote and the % of the population elegible to vote who do]

    I did not understand this profound distinction at all, at all.

    The Loch Ness “haka” was “cold”..

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