AAP, for some reason, reveals that the Newspoll to be published in The Australian tomorrow will have the elastic jerking back after the 50-50 anomaly of three weeks ago, with the Coalition now leading 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 33% for Labor (down three), 45% for the Coalition (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). However, Julia Gillard has improved further on her strongly recovering personal ratings last time, holding steady on approval at 36% and dropping two on disapproval to 50%, producing her best net approval rating since April last year. The wide gap which opened on preferred prime minister last time has narrowed only modestly, coming in at 43-33 in Gillard’s favour rather than 46-32. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also improved, his approval up three to 33% and disapproval down five to 55%.
Today’s Essential Research had Labor gaining a further point on the primary vote to 37%, with the Coalition steady at 47%. Essential has shown Labor gaining five points on the primary vote over six weeks, to reach a level not seen since March last year. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 53-47. Essential has smartly chosen this week to repeat an exercise from a year ago concerning trust in media personalities, finding Alan Jones among the most famous but least trusted (22% trust against 67% do not trust). The others best recognised were Laurie Oakes and George Negus, with the former slightly edging out the latter on trust (72% compared with 69%). Only 17% registered support for funding cuts to the ABC, with around a third each wanting funding maintained or increased. Opinion on government regulation of the media was fairly evenly spread between wanting more, less and the same.
UPDATE (9/10/12): The latest Morgan face-to-face result, combining its surveys over the past two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 37%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43% and the Greens up half a point to 10.5%. The Coalition’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is steady at 52-48, but they have gained a point on the 2010 election preferences measure to lead 51-49.
Senate-heavy preselection news:
• Barnaby Joyce’s lower house ambitions for the next election have foundered with Bruce Scott’s determination to serve another term as member for Maranoa. Joyce will not challenge Scott for preselection, saying to do so would be “self-indulgent personality politics”, despite the impression many received from his declared opposition to the locally contentious purchase of the vast Cubbie Station by a consortium led by Chinese interests. Unidentified Nationals quoted by Dennis Shanahan of The Australian “maintain Joyce had the numbers for preselection over Scott but it was going to be an ugly and drawn-out affair”.
• Two of the Queensland Coalition Senators whose terms expire after the next election have announced they will not seek re-election, leaving only 2007 ticket leader Ian MacDonald. Ron Boswell, who has been in the Senate since 1983 and was re-elected from number three in 2007, surprised nobody by announcing that at the age of 70 the time had come to bow out. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports those in contention to take his place on the LNP Senate ticket include David Goodwin, the Boswell-backed president of the Queensland Chamber of Commerce and Industry, along with LNP vice-president Gary Spence, LNP treasurer Barry O’Sullivan, and Barnaby Joyce staffer Matt Canavan. Liberal Senator Sue Boyce today announced she would not contest the next election as she wished to spend more time with her family, while acknowledging her preselection would have faced opposition from forces who perceive her as too moderate. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported that other applicants are likely to include David Moore, who worked on Campbell Newman’s election campaign. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported that hopefuls for a Senate position included David Moore, an LNP operative whose activities as a lobbyist were recently criticised by Clive Palmer.
• Chris Ketter, state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, has been preselected to top the Queensland Labor Senate ticket. The number one candidate from 2007, Senate President John Hogg, will retire. The second and third elected candidates from last time, Claire Moore and Mark Furner, will retain their old positions, a gloomy prospect for Furner in particular.
• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports that Labor in South Australia will not promote Penny Wong to the top of its Senate ticket, despite the “bad look” of having the position instead go to one-time Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association state secretary Don Farrell on the strength of his Right faction’s control of between 55% and 60% of the votes at the party’s state convention.
• Long-simmering hostilities between the NSW Liberals and Nationals over the seat of Hume have come to an end, with the Nationals agreeing not to field a candidate against Liberal candidate Angus Taylor in his bid to succeed retiring Liberal Alby Schultz. Senator Fiona Nash had most frequently been nominated as a potential candidate, together with state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson.
• Bob Carr told reporters last week that were Robert McClelland to retire in Barton, he could not think of a better candidate to succeed him than his own successor as Premier, Morris Iemma. However, McClelland insists he has no plans to do so.
• As anticipated, former Australian Medical Association president Bill Glasson has been confirmed as the LNP candidate to run against Kevin Rudd in Griffith. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was once Nationals member for the rural seat of Gregory and a minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments. Other names mentioned in relation to the preselection were John Haley, Alfio Russo and John Adermann, who stayed with the process to the end, along with Angela Julian-Armitage and Wayne Tsang, who dropped out at an earlier stage.
• The Mercury published extensive results on Saturday for polling of state voting intention in Tasmania, conducted on behalf of the Liberal Party by ReachTEL. The figures, which make for dismal reading for Labor, are detailed below, and have been thoroughly analysed by Kevin Bonham at the Tasmanian Times. The poll also found Liberal leader Will Hodgman favoured by 57.3% ahead of 22.9% for Premier Lara Giddings and 19.8% for Greens leader Nick McKim, and that 34.4% opposed the forestry “peace deal” against 28.2% support.
Lyons Bass Braddon Denison Franklin Total Labor 22.3% 17.4% 23.2% 18.5% 27.6% 22.7% Liberal 55.7% 62.9% 56.8% 36.5% 46.3% 51.5% Greens 13.6% 13.6% 14.6% 23.2% 19.4% 17.7% Other 8.4% 6.1% 5.3% 21.9% 6.7% 8.1% Sample 233 230 232 241 238 1174
OzPol Tragic
From numbers a few hours back the view rate is on average one every 170 milliseconds . Which by coincidence is the length of time the Coalition has spent developing policies. ‘)
BC Your post put it all in ‘context’ which made sense. Adam Bandt said on Wed am that Abbott had pulled a stunt. He had given no indication he was going to do it so the Govt. and Indies (who were already talking to Slipper) were caught on the hop.
I, too, thought that the PM was compassionate enough to want Slipper to leave with a little dignity. Who knows what he may have done – his mental state must be shredded at the moment.
Press Gallery is too incestuous in its reporting. Wasn’t it Maley who said they all had a little group discussion on Tuesday and decided to write the same story?
My goodness, talk about timing. Review in today’s AFR of a book by one Hanna Rosin
[The end of men
And the rise of women]
Yikes
[The idea that Tony Abbott hates women is not going to play outside of the Labor bubble.]
Unless people don’t understand what the word literally means.
At a work lunch today the subject of misogyny and sexism came up in relation to Berlusconi, but then turned to Tony Abbott. Even the men at our table agreed that Abbott is a misogynist, and the PM’s speech the other day “rocked”.
Still on the front page of the online Grauniad (sic).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/11/julia-gillard-australia-tony-abbott-sexism
About the only time I felt in danger of r*pe was when I stood up to a powerful – and definitely misogynistic – man.
Having told him I wasn’t going to support an action he wanted taken, I just got the vibe I was in danger. Fortunately, we were not alone – we were at a business getaway at a ski resort – but for the rest of our stay I was very careful to make sure I was either in a crowd or in my room with the door locked.
I don’t scare easily, but I don’t think I was exaggerating, either.
John Hewson told Sky News: “Yes, the Prime Minister gave a great speech, but I gather the band played pretty well as the Titanic went down as well.”
[About 6 months ago I had a great night at the local club. When I got home I opened a twitter acct. I haven’t been game enough to use it as I registered ‘ausjournosrscum’. In fact I don’t even know if I can change the name. Let alone how twitter works.]
I’ve thought of going on twitter but don’t know how it works, good on you
@Laocoon/5903
Reminds me an episode of Star Trek The Original Series, on a planet that is leading of women.
Dan Gulberry@5893
Yes, the UN or UNESCO. She has Negotiations skills and a blast to wake up them up if they aren’t being reasonable.
I also have her penciled in as a Governor General of An Australian Republic is due season as well.
New2This
[John Hewson told Sky News: “Yes, the Prime Minister gave a great speech, but I gather the band played pretty well as the Titanic went down as well.”]
Well I suppose he would know. Under his leadership his party Titanic’e” and several companies he was a director of since have also Titanic’ed . He would know the music off by heart.
DG
[And Peter Costello had to rely on Kevin Rudd to give him a job.]
One of Rudd’s first mistakes, borne of popularity.
I liken Rudd to Obama. Infused with enormous personal popularity (my son says Obama has personality but) they both wasted their opportunity.
Obama’s comeuppance arrived before Rudd’s. The difference being the only way to get rid of a president is through actual assassination (impeachment being notoriously and expensively difficult).
[“If Mr Assange is extradited to the United States, the consequences will reverberate for years around the world. Mr Assange is not an American citizen, and none of his actions have taken place on American soil. If the United States can prosecute a journalist in these circumstances, the governments of Russia or China could, by the same logic, demand that foreign reporters anywhere on earth be extradited for violating their laws. The setting of such a precedent should deeply concern everyone, admirers of WikiLeaks or not.” 1]
Marrickville Mauler,
[I have a tiny number of close friends and even so several of them have been r_ped and several more put in fear of r_pe or other attack by men.
Tell me what that is if not a war on women. keep them in their place. and all that.
And please, can everyone please put it away on the misogyny dictionary argument If someone says women arent fit to lead, that will do for hatred for mine. Separate but equal actually = subordination; actually = fear and hatred.]
My lived experience too. And with you on the question of definition.
So why is it that so many women don’t get it? Indeed, why do so many women – especially those in positions of influence – do nothing to prevent – indeed, actively discourage the elimination of – subordination and the hatred that inspires it?
Allen Moyes,
Re your email to Ms Maley, you nailed it. Well done. I didn’t think it is possible to get someone as one-eyed as she and her cohorts “right between the eyes” but you managed it. If you get a reply, will you be sharing it?
More on the bleatings of the the opposition on the exclusion of Huawei from the NBN. AFR Thursday reports:
[Canada says it has invokes a “national security exception” that could excluse China’s Huawei from a role in helping to build its new super-secure government communications network]
We all need mental health breaks!
My left eye is enjoying Coast featuring the Isle of Man’s Laxy Wheel (Neil Oliver); one of the engineering feats Dad didn’t explain to me, but OH made up for his omission ;-)! Great programme! Geology now (with Nick Crane) & the Menai Strait (& Bridge).
Right eye is watching me type this! Mad eyes do have some advantages!
[Gecko
poroti… here * r *]
[Thanks I sent my “r” to Davidwh so he can talk like a pirate.]
I laughed, even if no-one else did 😀
Laocoon @ 5916,
Has Lord Downer of
BaghdadAdelaide come out all turkey-cockily telling those dweadful Canadians how dweadfully they are behaving?Laocoon
[My goodness, talk about timing. Review in today’s AFR of a book by one Hanna Rosin
The end of men
And the rise of women
Yikes]
It’s the “Attack of the 50 Ft. Woman” all over again 😆
” …the hideous uncontrolled menace.Attack of the 50ft women .Incredibly huge with incredible desires for lust and revenge.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8VNS3GQsMo
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Friday, October 12, 2012 at 8:23 pm | PERMALINK
Ian@5884
About 6 months ago I had a great night at the local club. When I got home I opened a twitter acct. I haven’t been game enough to use it as I registered ‘ausjournosrscum’. In fact I don’t even know if I can change the name. Let alone how twitter works.
Well you didn’t tweet anything, and now you have one follower.]
Hi Ian now you have two followers Puffy and I have a look You will soon get the hang of it and it is fun
You know, this context thing is great.
For ages, we’ve wondered here why our economy is acclaimed overseas as going gangbusters, yet our own press tells us it’s a basket case.
No one overseas understands the CONTEXT of our economy!!
Glad to have cleared that one up.
Allan Moyes 5892
Wow! Fantastic…. wonder whether there will be a reply? They don’t take too kindly to criticism you know and are huddling together ahead of the circling wagons….
Misogyny: it’s still all Greek to male chauvinists
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/misogyny-its-still-all-greek-to-male-chauvinists-20121011-27fv3.html#ixzz294pHF2ZJ
lol, very good zoomster.
Also following you, Ian.
You’d better get tweeting so we can all interact!
[John Hewson told Sky News: “Yes, the Prime Minister gave a great speech, but I gather the band played pretty well as the Titanic went down as well.”]
poroti, didnt he lost the unloseable election? say no more
Allan Moyes – yes please, let us know if you get a response. Nice to see you.
fiona
[So why is it that so many women don’t get it? Indeed, why do so many women – especially those in positions of influence – do nothing to prevent – indeed, actively discourage the elimination of – subordination and the hatred that inspires it?]
Fear. On so many levels, but the first and foremost, physical fear.
Why, even the homosexual Alexander the Great berated his soldiers for raping and pillaging.
[They way they see it, everyone’s an operative in Canberra, and no-one does anything because they believe in it, only as a means to get leverage in ‘the polls’. So they can’t see Gillard’s speech as anything but a gambit. So it’s judged in those terms – does a speech absolve Gillard of the ‘crime’ of facilitating Slipper into the Speakership? ]
There is a certain absurd ‘logic’ to it. They denounce Labor as poll-driven and spin-obsessed just as they buy Coalition spin on almost everything.
[Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is off to Jakarta where he will recommit the federal coalition to working closely with Indonesia on challenges facing the Asian region.
Mr Abbott will meet senior Indonesian government officials with his deputy, foreign affairs spokeswoman Julie Bishop, immigration spokesman Scott Morrison and agriculture spokesman John Cobb.]
Gawd, a posse of dumb-arse ignorance. Hopefully the visit will be low key and they won’t embarrass us!
Talking about the mind-numbing stupidity of journalists, or is it their publishers?
On the current ABC website (from Reuters):
[The European Union wins the Nobel Peace Prize for its historic role in uniting the continent in an award that plays down the euro zone’s debt crisis.]
Note the: “in an award that plays down the euro zone’s debt crisis”?????
How the two are connected is not explained.
How the award for peace “plays down” the debt crisis makes no sense and of course cannot be explained.
It is called manipulating the news. It’s what journalists are paid to do.
LOL @ ‘context’. Frankly that’s just the OM hack definition of groupthink. The gallery all decided long ago that the government was going to lose the next election, so the context of every story they write is to that end.
How are those Fairfax shares going eh?
poroti
(a) I will have nightmares tonight, thank you very much! 😉
(b) How do you find these youtubes 😀
Allan Moyes
Posted Friday, October 12, 2012 at 8:22 pm | PERMALINK
[Space Kidette @ 5820
The Liberal trolls have been busy judging by the latest result of the poll, 45% loved it, 47% hated it.
For what it’s worth, this was my email to J Maley earlier.
Dear Ms Maleyetc]
Good on you Allan that is what they deserve
[It is called manipulating the news. It’s what journalists are paid to do.]
Context my dear friend, context
[The Finnigans
Posted Friday, October 12, 2012 at 8:55 pm | Permalink
John Hewson told Sky News: “Yes, the Prime Minister gave a great speech, but I gather the band played pretty well as the Titanic went down as well.”
poroti, didnt he lost the unloseable election? say no more]
Sort of like how the Titanic was unsinkable, he was captain of the RMS LNP Titanic
confessions
Its funny I read the News Ltd rags and its as if the Prime Minister has vapourised – Abbott in Bali, Howard in Bali. Julia gets a brief mention in a story about The Grub wanting another holiday in Bali. Thats about it.
EU has just issued a statement to say the prize money from the Nobel Peace Prize will save the PIIGS
Aguirre@5898
Exactly. This week has shown that the media have now lost their ability to set the agenda and are therefore part of a losing paradigm.
The only commentator, so far, that I have heard that in anyway near gets it, has been Jon Faine. He nailed it when he compared this week as the “Old Guard” being overtaken by the “New Guard”, or wtte.
This week will have a profound affect on voters that wont be initially apparent, but it will be come polling day.
Kezza2,
[Fear. On so many levels, but the first and foremost, physical fear.]
Even on the part of the women on the same “side” of politics?
Yes, unfortunately I think that you are right. Those women suck up (metaphorically, of course) to the alpha males of their tribe to reassure the alpha males that the women (1) won’t attack the alpha males, and (2) will, whenever required, grind their sisters into the dirt where the sluts belong.
Thus becoming complicit in the entire conspiracy.
How sad, and how destructive of those women as individuals – and my, don’t we have some prime examples of the consequences of that destruction before us now!
confessions
[Gawd, a posse of dumb-arse ignorance. Hopefully the visit will be low key and they won’t embarrass us!]
We can only hope that there is the diplomatic equivalent of Cybil Fawlty on hand to say “He’s from Barcelona”.
BTW, bludgers, while as you know I’m no fan of Libs, at least the Vic. gov’t. has proceeded with an action plan on domestic violence. I haven’t got the link but you could google it on the Vic. gov’t site. It contains some pretty serious data on violence perpetrated against women and children in Vic..
It’s actually horrifying how just about every clinical review of someone we have assessed for a mental health problem has a history of abuse and neglect.
And people wonder why the PMs speech has gone viral?
Kezza
[One of Rudd’s first mistakes]
Two Of Kevin Rudd’s Biggest Mistakes
The general consensus outside of Labor is that Abbott is not a misogynist in the strict sense of the word something even Oakeshott conceded on Lateline. He is many things I don’t personally like but I am happy to go with the consensus on misogyny.
[Mr Abbott will meet senior Indonesian government officials with his deputy, foreign affairs spokeswoman Julie Bishop, immigration spokesman Scott Morrison and agriculture spokesman John Cobb.
Gawd, a posse of dumb-arse ignorance. Hopefully the visit will be low key and they won’t embarrass us!]
Abbott has got others with him to try and keep him in line to prevent the disastrous results from his recent China visit.
Business has said “do not let him travel alone”
dave@5910
No argument from me on either of those.
[Julia gets a brief mention in a story about The Grub wanting another holiday in Bali. Thats about it.]
Now that you mention it, driving home the ABC news reported everything through a coalition prism. The first time in what feels like a few weeks now.
[Now on 1,025,928 views]
OPT
[1,037,995 views
by NewsOnABC
WOW! + 12,000 in 10 mins!]
There are two counts – on the page itself, which is still 1,025,928 as I write and is only updated every several hours, and in the search results if you search for “Gillard”, which is a later value but I don’t know exactly what it means. Anyway, I assume that the second figure came from the latter. That figure is now 1,054,997. It’s not 12,000 per 10 mins, but it’s still rising at a fair rate.
Context ? Meaning of context ? The local meeja are in fact Humpty Dumpty.
[“When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”
“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”
“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master— that’s all.”]
Oh and yes Humpty Dumpty is set for a great fall and all the Murdoch horses and all the Murdoch men won’t be able to put Humpty Dumpty together again.