Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

Essential Research has been slow to catch the trend to Labor detected elsewhere, but it finally falls into line with a two-point shift in its latest weekly survey.

Troy Bramston of The Australian has just announced on Twitter there will be no Newspoll this evening, so I’m giving the weekly Essential Research its own thread instead. The result finds Essential maintaining a recent record of taking a while to catch up with the trend, even after accounting for the stabilising effects of its two-week rolling average methodology. Labor has made a two-point gain on two-party preferred to now trail 53-47, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). This is Labor’s strongest two-party vote from Essential since June last year, and its strongest primary vote since a month previously. There’s even been a move in favour of the carbon tax, up three on support to 38% since June and down six on opposition to 48% – although there are now 69% who say they have noticed an increased in costs compared with 52% in August, with no increase down from 36% to 24%.

On the question of whether a seat at the UN Security Council would be of benefit, 44% say it would and 24% say it wouldn’t, which interestingly compares with 66% and 14% when the question was last posed in September 2008 (right when the global financial crisis was erupting, if that means anything). The poll also finds clear majority support for implementing higher taxes to fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme, dental health scheme and Gonski reforms, but not the purchase of new submarines (although Lindsay Tanner might have something to say about that). Sixty-eight per cent responded that a budget surplus was important “for the country as a whole”, but only 46% for them personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,953 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. poroti
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 8:43 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    But you have to admit there is some good stock in there, all those sea voyages each one I expected the boat to disappear, and he lives to 86, not bad really

    The sea stories are amazing. In 1818 (?) when they left for Canada the first ship sprung a leak. Norman decided that it was just as far forward as back and decided to push on. Check out St Ann’s in Nova Scotia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Anns,_Nova_Scotia . When ,years later in Nova Scotia,there was a series of crop failures they hired and built their own boats and sailed for the Antipodes.One of the ships was wrecked on the coast of the US. The survivors went back and built another boat and sailed again.The main fleet dropped in to Adelaide and Melbourne . He declared Melbourne to be “Sodom and Gomorrah” . Gold rush was on .So he set off for NZ.

    The Rev. Norman McLeod preached a harsh gospel in which mercy and tolerance had no place. But his followers in Scotland, Canada and New Zealand regarded him as their saviour.

    http://ouraucklandstuff.freeservers.com/McCleodofWaipu.htm

    Poroti that is called I think determination and often people react and accept harshness if they think it will bring them salvation, must be getting later at night I am really going”off my head” know what it is that you tube you showed me, I also see it was made for Harrods, wonder if that was the new store by the Falls of Shin up in the high country? Don’t think so looking at the store. Amazing the Falls of Shin have stood there and watched for ages the salmon trying to jump up the sheer rock and gushing water, I have never seen one do it, but some must to get back to their spawning area.

  2. BB

    [The judge’s comments re. Slipper earning enough to afford legal representation seem verging on the prejudicial to me. It wasn’t Slipper who brought the case on in unusual circumstances with unlimited resources. It was Ashby and his rich mates]

    Have to wonder if that alone would be grounds for appeal, should slipper need to.

    personnally can not see how ashby can prove his case, still think conspiracy

  3. Rummel,

    [ If you wish not to donate because i do not follow your type of politics your as shallow as you think i am.]

    It’s not because of your politics. It’s because you’re a twerp, mate.

    Alan Jones donates to charities too. He’s a twerp as well.

  4. BB

    Trying to put words in my mouth

    [Rummel does nopt seem to understand that millions of people were disgusted with Jones’ outburst.]

    I was disgusted and said so at the time

    [That it was said in private doesn’t matter. It was said by a “public person” to a Liberal Party gathering.]

    Agree

    [Jones’ critics were looking to the Liberal party to say it wasn’t part of their operating principles to malign the PM in this way.]

    I agree and called for it my self on PB

    [Instead the Libs (with a couple of honourable exceptions) supported Jones, pathetic and losing as that tactic is.]

    Agree and said that it showed why Turnbull should be leader.

    [If the next Newspoll comes out with Labor in front, all hell is going to break loose as the entire basis of political commentary over the past 2 years falls into a hole. If not this Newspoll, then the next one or the one after that will show Labor ahead.]

    I think it will as well. The Turnbull has a chance to become leader again

    [It’s going to happen some time soon. The whole myth of Labor being unelectable under any circumstances will be in the garbage bin as a result.]

    Was not a myth and worked well for a long time. Problem for us is the Big new tax is a small non noticeable tax and Gillard has got her game on now more then ever.

    [The Libs and their supporters have dug this hole for themselves, relying on polls only – snapshots of the relative race positions miles before the finish line – to support their claims of invincibility. It’s been a lazy, fact-free ride for them, and now it’s starting to look decidedly flaky, as one by one things start to fall apart.]

    Agree, people ask me to talk policy… what Lib Policys

    [It was all based on an immediate election, a “Home By Christmas” tactic that demonstrably hasn’t worked. That’s not opinion: that’s a FACT… it hasn’t worked.]

    agree

    [In the trench warfare that inevitably followed, the quick counterpunch, the flashy three-word slogans and the collusion of the media (of whom Jones is a prominent member) have finally worn out their usefulness and their bite.]

    agree

    [The more the Libs support jones the better, the MUCH better it is for Labor.]

    I dont support Jones. i have never listened to his program, not once.

    [Keep it up Rummel. You’re doing Labor a favour. Keep digging those trenches.]

    So you must be my biggest supporter BB?

  5. [dave
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 8:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Joe6pack@3793

    Rummell should be allowed to express his opinion though, how ever wrong it may be

    No one has said he cannot. And no one can say others cannot do likewise.]

    Agree, no one ever has. like wise i respect the right of people to call me an arse if they chose. No skin of my nose

  6. Rummel,

    I haven’t met you; I disagree with some of your statements. However, I admire your voluntary work and, more particularly, your efforts on behalf of your friend. I also put some faith in TLBD’s comments, not to mention the good taste of your ALP-voting spouse.

    I will still fight you tooth and nail when called for – and you still haven’t responded to my invitation to a stoush over the reality or otherwise of climate change.

  7. Space Kidette@3794


    BK,

    Abbott’s solution is ‘more, harder, bigger’ and I don’t think he is capable of anything else. Which is good because the harder he digs the deeper the hole.

    Bad, worse, wurst.

  8. Rummel:

    [BB:

    Trying to put words in my mouth]

    For someone who has had words put into his mouth by me, you agreed on every point I made, bar one.

    That’s pretty good mouth-putting by me, I’d say.

    The only point where you offer some token resistance is on my assertion that Labor’s being “unelectable” was a myth.

    For your information, elections are where the nation trots off down to the polling booth and votes, formally.

    Elections are NOT polls. Winning a thousand polls and losing an election still mean you lost the election.

    Using polls as a predictor of electability was always a myth, especially this far out from the actual election.

    The commentators went so far as to say that they didn’t even need to discuss Labor’s policies, as they would be thrown out of office before those policies came into effect.

    They also said that the Liberals got off without policy examination because they were the opposition.

    Sum the two positions together and you get NEITHER Labor’s nor the Liberals’ policies examined, and justified as being a wise and considered course of action!

    And this by the political cogniscenti!

    It’s a myth, and always has been.

  10. Rummel,

    Can I ask a question? Is what you post a chance to pull lefties pig tails or what you genuinely believe? Sometimes it is difficult to tell!

  12. fiona

    [and you still haven’t responded to my invitation to a stoush over the reality or otherwise of climate change.]

    It will please you and Boarwar that i have given up on arguing climate change. Im now a non denier or supporter and will pay my Tax and see what happens in 40 years.

  13. [Space Kidette
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 8:44 pm | PERMALINK
    mari,

    I’m not sure what value they (ABC) deem Tim Wilson can provide. I NEVER watch him. I like the concept of The Drum but I am not going to watch sponsored, right wing propagandists ever.

    I’m not surprised by the number of retweets. He is not popular or respected]
    Fully agree, I sometimes turn on the Drum repeat, but if he or Peter Reith or Judith Sloan is on I switch off, which means I usually switch off, I had a run in with IPA on Twitter once over tobacco sponsorship, proved my point and was then ignored as they couldn’t refute that they did get money off tobacco companies, straight from their website

  16. [Aguirre
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 9:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Rummel’s convinced me. I’m going to boycott all the sponsors of Williamson’s radio show until he apologises.]

    🙂 high five

  17. Mari,

    I will give you a tip. The IPA weenies have as a performance KPI how many times they generate IPA publicity, counted in tweets, posts and column inches. I try never to include their full title as I am not going to help them meet their kpi’s.

  18. [It will please you and Boarwar that i have given up on arguing climate change. Im now a non denier or supporter and will pay my Tax and see what happens in 40 years.]

    Big admission. I think the coming El Nino will restore a few more waverers to the fold, too.

    As crops dies, fires rage and storms wreck, eventually even the hardest critics of climate science will have to admit that something unusual’s happening.

  19. Love this idea – Australian Services Union has established a page so you can send a quick message of thanks to the Gillard government | http://bit.ly/UGVK2T

    In this instance it is for providing funding to save tenancy advice service sin Qld but what a brilliant idea. Social media is making the msm irrelevant b/c they spread the hate while we can show the love.

  23. Rummel,

    [It will please you and Boarwar that i have given up on arguing climate change. Im now a non denier or supporter and will pay my Tax and see what happens in 40 years.]

    Yes, I had had an inkling of that move on your part – well done!

    Since you are more likely to be around in 40 years than me, I hope that action taken now will not be too little too late. I especially hope that for your and my children’s sakes.

  25. [Space Kidette
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 9:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Rummel,

    Can I ask a question? Is what you post a chance to pull lefties pig tails or what you genuinely believe? Sometimes it is difficult to tell!]

    Send me a email.

  27. mari

    [Poroti that is called I think determination and often people react and accept harshness]
    Damn right. Now for a couple of vids to show how much influence Scots culture has in NZ. Maori,Pakeha and Polynesian.

    [Pipeworkz – The Gael ]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Q-gG3PQWSw&feature=relmfu
    [Pipeworkz – Kotahitanga ]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZ1R5BlqLGM&feature=relmfu

    [Pipeworkz in Germany ]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oW1WXCZS6VI

    [Papakura bagpipe band]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrwDpgwGptY

  28. I signed the petition against Jones, not to silence his views but to say that broadcasters should not be allowed to be bullies against other people. I think they should not be allowed to lie either but I know that to require truth would be too far for our society!!!

  30. [davidwh
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    Rummel 3803 well said.]

    He agreed with everything I said, exceot the “myth” part!

    And he was wrong on that.

  31. [Space Kidette
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 9:07 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari,

    I will give you a tip. The IPA weenies have as a performance KPI how many times they generate IPA publicity, counted in tweets, posts and column inches. I try never to include their full title as I am not going to help them meet their kpi’s.]
    Is that right what devious way did you learn this,(no I don’t want to know}but that would be right seeing the organisation they work for!

  32. Joe:

    [is a trillion a hundred billion or a billion billion in aus dollars?]

    It’s neither:

    A trillion is a thousand billion, or a million million… whichever way you want to express it.

    Let’s just say it’s $1,000,000,000,000.

  33. [ is a trillion a hundred billion or a billion billion ]

    Joe – its a thousand Billion.

    1,000,000 Million 6 zeros
    1,000,000,000 Billion 9 zeros
    1,000,000,000,000 Trillion 12 zeros

  35. I have fun with the Ms. Miss, Dr thing. I pick a different one every time.

    SK #3763, I like to torture poor unfortunate telemarketers with this stuff. They ask for Mrs (insert here my real surname). I sob and tell them she died. Quite true, that would be my dad’s mum who died peacefully age 94. Or I tell them there’s no Mrs (Mauler) its Dr (Mauler). They ask for her. Sob. Thats my mum – she died too, too young, PHD in education. Or they’ve heard of Dr Professor Mauler and ask for me by her surname. Nup, Mr (Dr Professor Mauler’s surname) is her dad and isnt here right now. (Because he’s still running his own business in Qld.) Hours of fun.

  40. Marrickville Mauler,

    So glad to find a twin soul. Today my (retired) OH has been – in rapid succession – a senior executive with Origin Energy, with Telstra (well, that was close to the truth), while I have masqueraded as my 16-year-old daughter, the housekeeper, the house-sitter (Mr and Dr X are overseas for the next six months), and myself (on the point of leaving for the airport in pursuit of foreign climes. Oh, and as a senior investigator with Vic Police investigating internet scams …

  41. [OzPol Tragic
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 9:24 pm | PERMALINK
    Them Greek ones do nae look quite so able to do this

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_WEP9ZkpS4

    Poroti One of OH’s fave ads, though his tipple was 17yo+ Island single malts pref Lagavulin (paternal line grim Scots Calvinist).]
    There are so many Pbers have links with the Scottish people, speaking of Calvanists, one of the islands nothing happens still on Sunday, but the ferry has just started to run on a Sunday, with dire warning that that is the thin edge and Sodom and Gomorrah will be upon them. True

  43. TLBD @ 3837,

    Lawdy – Mr Pyne must be using some really pale face powder. Or else he’s feeling a bit seedy …

    And he’s straightened his hairs.

  47. Malcolm is about to about to discuss Thucydides.

    I don’t think the father of scientific history would approve Talcum’s approach to the NBN.

  50. Thucydides would not even make it on to the backbench of the current LNP. Though his cousin Hypocrisy could easily be LOTO.

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