Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

Essential Research has been slow to catch the trend to Labor detected elsewhere, but it finally falls into line with a two-point shift in its latest weekly survey.

Troy Bramston of The Australian has just announced on Twitter there will be no Newspoll this evening, so I’m giving the weekly Essential Research its own thread instead. The result finds Essential maintaining a recent record of taking a while to catch up with the trend, even after accounting for the stabilising effects of its two-week rolling average methodology. Labor has made a two-point gain on two-party preferred to now trail 53-47, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). This is Labor’s strongest two-party vote from Essential since June last year, and its strongest primary vote since a month previously. There’s even been a move in favour of the carbon tax, up three on support to 38% since June and down six on opposition to 48% – although there are now 69% who say they have noticed an increased in costs compared with 52% in August, with no increase down from 36% to 24%.

On the question of whether a seat at the UN Security Council would be of benefit, 44% say it would and 24% say it wouldn’t, which interestingly compares with 66% and 14% when the question was last posed in September 2008 (right when the global financial crisis was erupting, if that means anything). The poll also finds clear majority support for implementing higher taxes to fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme, dental health scheme and Gonski reforms, but not the purchase of new submarines (although Lindsay Tanner might have something to say about that). Sixty-eight per cent responded that a budget surplus was important “for the country as a whole”, but only 46% for them personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,953 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  3. While Malcolm Turnbull would generally be more attractive to non-right wing voters, it is hard to imagine him being able to be a successful leader of a largely irrational extreme right wing party.

  7. TLBD

    [I don’t think the father of scientific history would approve Talcum’s approach to the NBN.]

    My hazy school memories was that Thucidides “proved” that because “asians” thought it was scandalous to be naked in public they were obviously barbarians!!

    He may be right but hardly “scientific”!!

  13. [I don’t think the father of scientific history would approve Talcum’s approach to the NBN.]

    😆

    Meanwhile, watching Uhlmann’s report on 730, the “perfect storm” of Ashby-Slipper and Thomson-HSU East seem deliberately architected to collide against each other, thus putting maximum pressure on the govt.

    And here we are 6-8 months later with Abbott still turning up to favourable businesses to spruik his ever-irrelevent anti carbon ‘tax’ slogans.

    It’s a surreal world we live in.

  14. swamprat

    [Thanks poroti

    Loved that Maori-Scots music…]

    Part of why NZ is so different from Aus. Here are two uber establishment schools before a rugby match. Followed by a high school bagpipe show down and a teenage bagpipe “mosh pit”. The Scots have much to answer for 😆
    [Kings College and AGS Haka ]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIi7O83LoUY

    [Dunedin – Bagpipe Competition]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rsjMpJcrCQ

    [Summer School Piping Mosh Pit ]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxhHCf6ErEo

  15. Fiona # 3839 : fun! As I may have reported before my 17 year old prefers a simpler approach in that he pretends to be our cat when dealing with unwelcome calls … “miaow? miaow? hiss!!!!”

  17. [Interesting article on the US Presidential Debate today.

    Top 7 Lies of the First Debate

    Guess who won on that particular metric?]

    I was surprised that none of the Oz commentators I heard/ read today picked up on those, given they’ve been well canvassed in US online papers & blogs…

    Or maybe, given the pathetic state of most Oz political MSM commentary, I shouldn’t have been!

  18. This weeks’s political/polling meme is the Jones-Abbott-gillard saga. Everything else is a sideshow, just the usual noise. Abbott and the LNPs polling will go south come the next Newspoll. Or I’m a Scottish man.

  19. With Newspoll I assume out in the field now, I wonder if this is the survey when Abbott surpasses Turnbull on the net-dissatisfaction; last survey he was -30 (30 approve/60 disapprove). Turnbull’s worst, at the height of the Gretch/Turnbull/Abetz scandal, was -33% (+25/-58)

  22. BB

    re my earlier spat at HSU.

    What else do we have! Abbott has given us libs nothing, nothing positive, nothing to look forward too. Whats worse he has turned into the phantom turd, you know it turns up every day or two but when you look down its disappeared.

    The Libs are in a state of disaster a year out from the election (yes im being honest and not pull your leg). I expect a very close election next year and thats good for Australia and the Liberals who might be forced to realise Abbott is not PM material. None of this is news for you or Team Labor.

  27. OzPol @ 3866

    [I was surprised that none of the Oz commentators I heard/ read today picked up on those, given they’ve been well canvassed in US online papers & blogs…

    Or maybe, given the pathetic state of most Oz political MSM commentary, I shouldn’t have been!]

    You have a right to have an obsession with the politics of a foreign (barely democratic) country, but why you think it has anything to do with this thread is beyond me.

  31. TLBD

    [swamprat,

    (s Barack Obama another Alan Jones?]

    I would hardly think so. Are David Cameron or Alex Salmond another Alan Jones?

  32. OPT,

    David Speers was crowing about a Mitt Romney victory after the first debate and I tweeted to him that he might want to wait to declare until the fact-checkers had a go at it.

  33. fiona@3799


    Musrum, Dario, anybody else out there?

    Could we possibly have a two minute period of grace in which to edit our spelling and/or grammatical errors even if we have used Preview? (which I didn’t – where’s the limp lettuce leaf?).

    Sorry that is beyond the powers of a browser-side script.

    Your suggestion has been asked before, but the Crikey IT people might be a bit more responsive this time.

  35. Spacey,
    \
    Rope-a-dope, wasn’t it! Mitt the Mutt is about to be asked, as Abbott will be closer to the election, which programs, exactly, will you cut?

  40. [Carey Moore
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 10:14 pm | PERMALINK
    Well, finally got a chance to see the first presidential debate and let me just say it was as bad as people are saying. Obama just died up there!]

    Which is scary. What is going on behind the scene that is causing Obama to loose such focus?……. Iran V Israel tiff or a china V japan scrap just around the corner .

  43. SK, one would hope so.

    Then again, one debate doesn’t make an election.

    Mondale won the first debate in 1984, then was crushed in the subsequent debate and lost the election badly.

    Heck, Kerry won the debates in 2004 and still lost, so it’s not necessarily the end of the world. It’s just given new life to Romney.

  45. Carey,

    Obama is a specifics guy, that is where he naturally goes to, but if you want someone to ‘talk wide’ you need to keep the discussion wide. My gut is telling me that the strategy is to try to have Romney walk into the great big gaffe rather than hit him with zingers.

    Obama may not have won today and personally it was basically based on oration style and the the win was marginal at best but I don’t think it was anywhere near enough to turn the voting tide.

  47. swamprat

    [Oh why can’t William establish a special thread for all the yankie obsessives?]
    SHHHH ! It was before my time but the Finnigans and the Boer’s will tell you that the PB lounge Hilary v Obama war was utterly epic. Blood all over the walls and all that. BK’s “Dawn Patrol” used to be about him washing the blood off the walls and straightening the furniture

  48. [Oh why can’t William establish a special thread for all the yankie obsessives?]

    I’ll second that. If I could vote in the yank elections I’d take an interest, but seeing as I can’t I just don’t give a rat’s arske.

  49. I’ve been rummaging around the interwebs to see what happened in the Slipper/Ashby stoush after the Commonwealth left this afternoon and found, well, not much. Except this –
    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3604093.htm

    Yesterday Ashby’s lawyer told us that this was not about money, oh no, never, not at all. It was all about Ashby’s tender concern for other public servants who might soon be monstered by Mr Slipper, and all about stopping that from happening. Tomorrow it will be all about how much money Ashby thinks he can screw out of Slipper. Who would have thought!

  50. [ I expect a very close election next year and thats good for Australia and the Liberals who might be forced to realise Abbott is not PM material. None of this is news for you or Team Labor.]

    I was going to say I feel all distraught now, at calling you a twerp, Rummel.

    But you are a twerp, really.

    You can obviously be sensible and reasonably rational, but you choose not to be most of the time.

    That’s “twerp” country to me.

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