Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on last week at 55-45, from primary votes of 34% for Labor (unchanged), 47% for the Coalition (down one to a six-month low) and 9% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time. There are also the following findings on the present government’s reforms:

The introduction of a carbon price is the only major Labor reform with net voter opposition, Essential found. Only 28% of voters thought the introduction of a carbon price was good for Australia, with 51% rating it bad — indeed, 35% of voters rated it “very bad”. Otherwise, support for Labor reforms seems to split into three: highly contested reforms that have majority support, such as the mining tax (supported 49-25%); the NBN (43-28%) and the abolition of WorkChoices (42-27%); mid-tier reforms with widespread approval — paid parental leave (52-20%); stimulus spending during the GFC (54-22% – the BER program is supported 53-20%); accepting the recommendations of the Houston panel on asylum seekers (45-15%) and paid parental leave 52-20%.

Then there are the reforms with very high support: lifting the age pension (70-11%); increasing super to 12% (68-9%); lifting the tax-free threshold to $18,200 (75-4%); the NDIS (58-5%); marine reserves (controversial in some areas but with 67-8% support); dental care (77-5%) and the Gonski education reforms (54-8%).

Also canvassed are Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan and the role of unions in the wake of the HSU scandals and the CFMEU/Grocon dispute in Melbourne – matters which were also covered in a Morgan phone poll of 410 voters conducted Wednesday, results of which can be seen here and here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,836 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [It is widely accepted that Hockey is one of Parliament’s most effortless performers. He possesses a Clintonesque capacity to connect with the community.]

    I think every one accepts that Australian politics would be better off if Abbott was gone. It isn’t going to happen if every time the press suggest someone else, people fall on the floor and start laughing.

    For the sake of the country please try and pretend there is an option.

  2. The MemberForForrestThing issued an interesting press release on broadband recently:

    [The South West will receive better broadband sooner under a future Coalition government.

    This was the clear message from Shadow Minister for Communications and Broadband Malcolm Turnbull during his two days in the region.

    Broadband blackspots would be targeted and mobile phone communications would also receive a significant boost.

    “I genuinely believe the approach we are taking will be better for regional Australia,” Mr Turnbull told a packed house of almost 100 people at the Bunbury Chamber of Commerce and Industries on Tuesday.]

    Wireless trumps FTH? Ms Marino doesn’t appear to understand her constituency if she thinks that increasing wireless users in her community will improve services.
    http://nolamarino.com.au/better-broadband-sooner-for-the-south-west-under-the-coalition/

  3. Think all you young ones could get this, beyond me.

    Craig Emerson MP‏@CraigEmersonMP

    Hint for #Emmoquiz Look at their first songs

    In both cases their first hits were cover versions ?

  4. [Schnappi

    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

    mari

    Schnappi Still like this answer the best

    24m Bridget O’Flynn‏@BridgetOFlynn

    @CraigEmersonMP They all escaped being punched by @TonyAbbottMHR ?

    So has our PM, although in his SSO looks like he would like too.]
    PM Gillard is also lucky

  5. [mari
    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

    Did the ABC News say anything detrimental to Tony Abbott when that happens we know it is “game, set and match” all over for TA]

    Based on that criteria, he is toast.

  6. ruawake

    I believe it may have been Gaffhook who made the comment last week as to Springborg being the plan for the LNP.

    I will see if i can locate it

  7. [fredn

    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    mari
    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

    Did the ABC News say anything detrimental to Tony Abbott when that happens we know it is “game, set and match” all over for TA

    Based on that criteria, he is toast.]
    So they wern’t their usual fawning selves about TA, they actually said something not complimentary about him?

  8. [So they wern’t their usual fawning selves about TA, they actually said something not complimentary about him?]

    We where informed that the women in question is not part of a labor dirt unit, and the incident definitely happened.

  9. [fredn

    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 7:50 pm | Permalink

    So they wern’t their usual fawning selves about TA, they actually said something not complimentary about him?

    We where informed that the women in question is not part of a labor dirt unit, and the incident definitely happened.]

    TA is indeed in trouble, can’t wait to see what Michelle G writes in har article tomorrow then

  10. [4600
    mari

    Seasprite

    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

    interesting poll on ninemsn http://news.ninemsn.com.au/

    Does Abbott’s alleged punch incident matter to you?

    I waited a few minutes and refreshed after I voted and the votes for NO are going up very quickly, Abbott must have staffers banging away on the site deleting cookies then voting again.

    YES 18,777 NO 66,898

    YES 18,875 NO 67,231
    ——— ——-
    98 —— 333

    Yep Staffers no way would it be skewed so quickly, can’t understand why they make it look so obvious]

    They must have cranked up the No-Bot.

  11. fredn @ 4601.
    That’s the funniest thing I’ve read in a while. Had me laughing out loud and HI indoors as well. Well done.

  12. 4588
    The Big Ship

    Well said.

    I am not happy either with the get-out-of-jail-free cards so easily being handed to Abbott.

    His behaviour then is at least partly relevant to the man he is today. Especially as he doesn’t seem to have changed so much over the intervening 35 years.

  13. Re: Joe Hockey’s Clintonesque capacities.

    Sounds accurate to me. Especially after I looked it up in an online dictionary.

    Clintonesque:
    1. Shaded by deceit.
    2. In matters of speech, to parse the English language so painfully at a direct question as to avoid responsibility for your own actions.
    3. In matters of conduct, to be more interested in #1, instead of the greater good.

    Shaded by deceit is particularly clever. There must be some pretty big deceit standing in front of Joe to shade him.

  14. 4623

    [confessions

    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 8:13 pm | Permalink

    poroti:

    I continue to be in awe of your youtube searching skills!
    ]
    You and me too, Poroti is amazing

  15. This would be really sick if true, but nothing about the phone hacking surprises me. (The Hillsborough campaigners were the relatives of the 96 people killed in the Hillsborough disaster in 1989, who fought for an inquiry for 20 years. The report of the inquiry was released this week with damning findings. )

    David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen

    Did one of the Hillsborough campaigners have their phone/pc hacked? Worrying tweet: http://bit.ly/RQxGbq #Leveson #JFT96
    Retweeted by Sarah Joseph

  16. rummel,

    [ David Marr is practically a card carrying Labor member. Its like claiming Andrew Bolt is in the centre of the politicly spectrum and bias free. ]

    Geezus Rummel! That Fun run has destroyed more of your brain cells than I thought it might doing it fully suited up and all.

    Marr did more than the combined might of the Liberal/National Party/Labor Right, to destroy Rudd & his future PM ambitions and open up an easy run for Abbott and the Coalition leading in to the next election.

    Credit where credit is due my lad. Not a great pile of bullskit that nobody, even the most rusted on Lib can believe,.

  17. The Rudd fanbois on PVO’s Sky show both think the Ramjan allegations are false, apparently because they were brought to life by David Marr.

    Echoes Rudd fanboys who have posted on PB today.

  18. mari +confessions

    It is more a sign of the coming into reality of William Gibson’s vision of the future of information in novels like Neuromancer.

  19. Schnappi

    [Dog Forbid, but would abbott be referred to as abbottthing or PMthing]
    Nah, he’d be the Abbottabully or Abbottathug or even the Abbottathugabully 🙂

  20. confessions,

    [ The Rudd fanbois on PVO’s Sky show both think the Ramjan allegations are false, apparently because they were brought to life by David Marr.

    Echoes Rudd fanboys who have posted on PB today. ]

    Careful how you go here fess. Marr did one of the best demolition jobs on your pal Rudd of anyone in the media so far.

    Make sure you don’t undermine that by doing a job on Marr! 😉

  21. [The Rudd fanbois on PVO’s Sky show both think the Ramjan allegations are false]

    Fess, from Fanbois No: 1 With Love

    [Kevin Rudd ‏@KRuddMP
    @theqldpremier Happy to have a chat about it over a cup of tea at the caravan park with the 150 people you are evicting. KRudd]

  22. Finns:

    If Rudd wanted to run for state parliament (and eventually Qld ALP leader) where he could take Newman head on on his apparent preferred issues of choice, I’d be his number 1 cheersquad.

    He could announce his retirement from federal parliament at the next election tomorrow and go for it.

  23. The ABC does seem to have gone off message about ‘Punchgate’ today, and I’m sure that the Murdoch media, from which the ABC drones usually recycle 90% of their news content, must be very unhappy about their lapdogs going rogue about this issue on a Newspoll weekend. The supine national broadcaster can usually be relied on to toe the News Ltd line, chapter and verse, especially when there are opinion polls to be influenced.

    The Fairfax media have also been on the job today, keeping the story bubbling away, and ensuring that Abbott is going to have an uncomfortable wait until Monday evening.

    If the results are bad for the Coalition (and I mean that in relative terms) perhaps Dennis Shanahan may rouse himself from his geriatric somnolence and have his poison pen dripping with anti-Gillard vitriol on Sunday night?

    What odds on a narrowing to something like 53 to 47 TPP to the Coalition, from 55 to 45 two weeks ago?

  24. @confessions/4639

    I agree with you, and that’s what I’ve been going for for how long now?

    He could have entire QLD to himself for all that matter – no need for tactics like he was displaying.

  25. The problem Abbott now has is that his “identity-halo” has acquired a very troubling new dimension. The image of Abbott raising and smashing his clenched fist is very easy to conjure up. This is particularly the case because Abbott has made a lot of use of visual, physical messaging since he became LOTO.

    In general, I would venture to say the Abbott is remembered much less for what he says – for the content of his ideas – than for how he looks and how he sounds. How he dresses, how his facial expressions are formed, how he walks and leans, and his use of physically overt, sport-connected activities have been woven together to define his political persona.

    He has tried to convey an image of himself as a physical dynamo. And this is all of a piece with his tense, angry, combative political style. I reckon every time he tries to get “on the front foot”, to summon a verbal assault, people are going to see a violent loser – all a-glare, menacing, fist-raised, ready to lash out.

    He is now a self-acknowledged angry child. This is not the look of a PM, let alone a LOTO.

  26. Barney pretends that Abbotts recent visit to China where he lectured them on democracy, warned them Japan and USA were our allies not China and told them investment by Chinese businesses with a any hint of state ownership was not welcome has nothing to do with the current climate.

    No it is all due to an ex pm from 3 years ago.

    [Mr Barnett said Australia was still recovering from a series of bad decisions in 2009 – during Kevin Rudd’s term as prime minister – that saw Australian-Chinese relations hit a new low.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/wa-premier-slams-relationship-with-china-20120914-25xvt.html#ixzz26RLF2VsX

    but Packer like Stokes is more realistic

    [James Packer has agreed that comments from maverick senator Barnaby Joyce, regarding the federal government’s decision to sell a Queensland cotton farm to Chinese investors, were “xenophobic claptrap” and bad for Australia’s national interest.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/packer-backs-joyces-comments-20120914-25xvs.html#ixzz26RMEmcdm

    Tones behaviour as a guest in China was cringe worthy, the full Les Paterson mode and then he follows it up by failing to do anything about Joyces comments reinforcing the perceptions of his China visit.

  27. Graeme Innes, Australia’s Disability Discrimination Commissioner, discusses the potential of the NBN to change lives.

    @GraemeInnes discusses how broadband will transform ageing & #disability featuring @ai_live http://ow.ly/dHRW4

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