Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on last week at 55-45, from primary votes of 34% for Labor (unchanged), 47% for the Coalition (down one to a six-month low) and 9% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time. There are also the following findings on the present government’s reforms:

The introduction of a carbon price is the only major Labor reform with net voter opposition, Essential found. Only 28% of voters thought the introduction of a carbon price was good for Australia, with 51% rating it bad — indeed, 35% of voters rated it “very bad”. Otherwise, support for Labor reforms seems to split into three: highly contested reforms that have majority support, such as the mining tax (supported 49-25%); the NBN (43-28%) and the abolition of WorkChoices (42-27%); mid-tier reforms with widespread approval — paid parental leave (52-20%); stimulus spending during the GFC (54-22% – the BER program is supported 53-20%); accepting the recommendations of the Houston panel on asylum seekers (45-15%) and paid parental leave 52-20%.

Then there are the reforms with very high support: lifting the age pension (70-11%); increasing super to 12% (68-9%); lifting the tax-free threshold to $18,200 (75-4%); the NDIS (58-5%); marine reserves (controversial in some areas but with 67-8% support); dental care (77-5%) and the Gonski education reforms (54-8%).

Also canvassed are Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan and the role of unions in the wake of the HSU scandals and the CFMEU/Grocon dispute in Melbourne – matters which were also covered in a Morgan phone poll of 410 voters conducted Wednesday, results of which can be seen here and here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,836 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. My point from earlier on today stands: If Abbott is so destructive to the cause of the Coalition attaining government, surely it’s in Labor’s best interests for him to stay as Opposition Leader until the next election.

  2. GG # 4803, there are some nice private dining rooms in various very reasonably priced sydney pub restaurantss, as it happens . Up to you whether your name is on the door for inclusion or exclusion, really.

    I’d buy TLM a drink as penance for intemperate previous remarks of mine but that hardly means we’re exchanging other fluids.

  3. Amazingly Oakes says this:

    [Yesterday, after virtually hiding from the media since the matter erupted a week ago, he came to his senses and met the issue head-on in a tough television interview on Nine’s Today show, and later at a news conference.]

    1. Karl does not do tough.
    2. He walked away from his news conference once it started to actually become tough.

    But on the whole I’m pleased that Oakes hasn’t slid into the PvO line of stating this is a beat up. Abbott ensured the issue had salience with his response to the allegations.

  4. [If Abbott is so destructive to the cause of the Coalition attaining government, surely it’s in Labor’s best interests for him to stay as Opposition Leader until the next election.]

    There is no other coalition MP behind which the Liberals would unite in the way they have behind Abbott.

    Keep dreaming of Turnbull to keep your hated Gillard from re-election, but he would lead a divided partyroom, just as he did before. Fantastic for Labor and for Julia Gillard.

  5. MM,

    You’re telling the story. But, could they spell Marrickville?

    As a rule, I have no comment about treacherous try hards that have erroneously convinced themselves they have a political intelligence. About, TLM I have absolutely no comment.

    Guytaur will have something to say when he grows up.

  6. [4800
    Marrickville Mauler

    Were the High Court asked, it may well find that the Marriage Act as it is now framed is invalid to the extent that it denies equality of treatment on the basis of sexuality.

    briefly #4797 , nice try, nice thought, but I’m sorry you dont appear to know much australian constitutional law? where exactly in the Australian constitution is there an equal protection clause? thats right, nowhere.]

    I think it is possible. There is no express right of free speech either, but the High Court has construed the (albeit limited) existence of such a right. Courts find and define rights that attach to and may be asserted by individuals, especially where their legal standing is concerned. They are very good at it. There is certainly a deep-seated assumption that individuals are to be treated equally under the law. The entire concept of due process is based on the presumption that there is some minimum standard that will apply to all. Courts have consistently found ways to both protect due process and to ensure their own role cannot be diminished by any Parliament. Every marriage is, in fact, the result of a legal process and gives rise to various legal rights and duties. So it is open to courts to look at issues of access to marriage and of restrictions on eligibility for marriage.

    These ideas are embedded in the whole set of doctrines and practices that comprise our legal tradition. The converse of this is to accept that Parliaments might freely legislate to permit or even enforce the unequal treatment of individuals or classes of individuals with respect to their legal standing in any number of ways. This sits very uncomfortably with contemporary social expectations.

    I think there is an arguable case there somewhere.

  7. TLM, why do you constantly find the need to find an angle in anything that you can use to throw back on labor ?
    You go out of your way to do this, how can you claim to be a ‘Labor’ voter ?

  8. could be a hoax, but scary for those on campus.

    UT campus under evacuation order

    By AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF | Friday, September 14, 2012, 09:55 AM

    UPDATE, 10 a.m.: University of Texas officials said in a statement:

    At 8:35 a.m. the university received a call from a male with a middle eastern accent claiming to have placed bombs all over campus. He said he was with Al Qaeda and these bombs would go off in 90 minutes. President Powers was notified and it was decided to evacuate all of the buildings out of an abundance of caution.


  9. Good morning, Bludgers. Good morning, Dawn Patrollers.

    Good morning, lyne lady. A start the day with a (cynical) smile especially for you: Nationals target key seats with highway pledge (though I’d avoid looking at the Trusssshhh pic!).

    [The National Party will back a failed Labor plan for the full duplication of the Pacific Highway in New South Wales under a key strategy to claw back country voters at the next federal election.]

  10. thanks oz…
    nats and libs will be throwing everything at lyne… rob will be standing on his record which is excellent… we’ll see…..

  11. [oh dear…. Abbott got angry 35 years ago]

    I love it when you start to panic and get all desperate. You are such a funny fellow who wants to be taken seriously.

  12. [nats and libs will be throwing everything at lyne]

    And the more newman trashed the Liberal-National brand in Qld, the more desperate they’ll get.

    It’s unsettling to think that, if Keating had won in 1996, or Howard kept his campaign promises, those N-NSW Pacific Highway killing stretches would have been duplicated by the end of the last century. So many lives lost; so much injury & trauma avoided; all because Liberals refuse to build/ help build that road.

  13. [all because Liberals refuse to build/ help build that road.]

    It’s the same as ‘Clive wants a train line’ – they want someone else to pay for it.

  14. @KJBar: NASA’s Opportunity rover has found a new Martian discovery: an outcrop of tiny spheres nicknamed “blueberries”. They are 3mms in diameter.

  15. [rummel, your two posts conflict with each other, one saying he didnt, and one saying he got angry 35 years ago.]

    So Abbott, his media & social media cheer squad are finally confronted by the truth about the lying, loud-mouthed, gutless thug from waaay back, who’s been dealing vile, lying abuse out in spades to PM Julia Gillard, but turns shifty, mendacious, gutless wonder when the truth is dealt out to him! It’s not as if his type haven’t been recognised in literature, religious and secular, over millennia. How well these words fit Abbott as retribution catches up with him!

    [for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword (Matthew 26:52;King James Version)]

    [Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves. Ye shall know them by their fruits (Mathew 7:20)]

    [If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well
    It were done quickly. If the assassination
    Could trammel up the consequence, and catch
    With his surcease success … But in these cases
    We still have judgment here, that we but teach
    Bloody instructions, which, being taught, return
    To plague th’ inventor: this even-handed justice
    Commends the ingredients of our poisoned chalice
    To our own lips.

    (Shakespeare: Macbeth I vii)
    My emphasis]

    I hope Abbott is made pay for every word of the lying, calumination he hurled at Prime Minister Gillard during his despicable campaign to seize her Office for himself.

  16. rummel
    Posted Saturday, September 15, 2012 at 7:35 am | Permalink
    JULIA Gillard was deeply involved in a well-planned operation to remove Kevin Rudd from the leadership in 2010, according to a forthcoming book by former Labor MP Maxine McKew.

    Go to be a good read and the events did not happen 35 years ago.]

    Ruddsteration is old news. Rudd and a few Liberal dreaming of other detractions still haven’t worked it out, but no matter. It is hard to see how the Liberals are going to recover from the sinking of Abbott. Turnbull might be able to do it, but the rest of the rabble, no hope.

    Rudd’s problem is he has to face up to the fact that Julia is a better politician. Part of the job is leadership, keeping you team working for the common goals is part of the job description. Rudd is good with the media, but he failed as a leader, failed to keep the numbers. The issue is not how the vacuum was filled, the issue is one existed.

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