Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on last week at 55-45, from primary votes of 34% for Labor (unchanged), 47% for the Coalition (down one to a six-month low) and 9% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time. There are also the following findings on the present government’s reforms:

The introduction of a carbon price is the only major Labor reform with net voter opposition, Essential found. Only 28% of voters thought the introduction of a carbon price was good for Australia, with 51% rating it bad — indeed, 35% of voters rated it “very bad”. Otherwise, support for Labor reforms seems to split into three: highly contested reforms that have majority support, such as the mining tax (supported 49-25%); the NBN (43-28%) and the abolition of WorkChoices (42-27%); mid-tier reforms with widespread approval — paid parental leave (52-20%); stimulus spending during the GFC (54-22% – the BER program is supported 53-20%); accepting the recommendations of the Houston panel on asylum seekers (45-15%) and paid parental leave 52-20%.

Then there are the reforms with very high support: lifting the age pension (70-11%); increasing super to 12% (68-9%); lifting the tax-free threshold to $18,200 (75-4%); the NDIS (58-5%); marine reserves (controversial in some areas but with 67-8% support); dental care (77-5%) and the Gonski education reforms (54-8%).

Also canvassed are Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan and the role of unions in the wake of the HSU scandals and the CFMEU/Grocon dispute in Melbourne – matters which were also covered in a Morgan phone poll of 410 voters conducted Wednesday, results of which can be seen here and here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,836 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. I think the real level of support for the ALP is about 46, and has been for a little while. I don’t believe many people change their minds in any given fortnight. All this Abbott stuff just sinks slowly into the subconscious.

    That being said, if the ALP support is 46, a 47 poll is a fair possibility – won’t that be fun for the commentariat!

  2. [poroti

    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    mari +confessions

    It is more a sign of the coming into reality of William Gibson’s vision of the future of information in novels like Neuromancer.]

    I admit I had to google this and came up that it the first cyberpunk novel and it “chilling” Give me nightmares if I read it?

  6. mari

    [I admit I had to google this and came up that it the first cyberpunk novel and it “chilling” Give me nightmares if I read it?]
    No no no not at all. Yes some of his visions of the future in Neuromancrer are a bit scary but it has been amazing to see how many of his visions came true ..
    [Gibson coined the term “cyberspace” in his short story “Burning Chrome” (1982) and later popularized the concept in his debut novel, Neuromancer (1984). In envisaging cyberspace, Gibson created an iconography for the information age before the ubiquity of the Internet in the 1990s.He is also credited with predicting the rise of reality television and with establishing the conceptual foundations for the rapid growth of virtual environments such as video games and the World Wide Web.]

  8. [poroti

    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

    mari

    I admit I had to google this and came up that it the first cyberpunk novel and it “chilling” Give me nightmares if I read it?

    No no no not at all. Yes some of his visions of the future in Neuromancrer are a bit scary but it has been amazing to see how many of his visions came true ..etc]
    Might have a look at it then, cheers Poroti

  9. confessions,

    I would think he would give it a hot go.

    Whether he would win is hard to say. Three years away. One week in Queensland ( as well as Federal ) politics is a long time now a days.

    Anything is possible up here now especially with the LNP/Can do dynamics. Who would have thought 3 years ago labor would end up with 7 seats !

  10. [Prof Clive Palmer @CliveFPalmer 2h
    As one of the major private employers in Qld, I don’t think it’s inappropriate for me to approach government about state significant issues]

    [Prof Clive Palmer @CliveFPalmer 2h
    I won’t be seeking LNP preselection for Fairfax or elsewhere – can’t support coalition policy on refugees and political lobbyists. #auspol]

  11. Gorilla @ 4651

    [I think the real level of support for the ALP is about 46, and has been for a little while. I don’t believe many people change their minds in any given fortnight. All this Abbott stuff just sinks slowly into the subconscious.]

    The combination of Queenslanders being Newmanned, O’Farrell and Baillieu doing whatever it is they do when they’re not pulling the wings off flys, and ‘Punchgate’ may be enough to shake a few jaded voters out of their Abbott-induced torpor, and begin to realise the implications of potential wall to wall Conservative Governments dismantling the nation’s social fabric and replacing it with hard right, dog-eat-dog, sack the bludging public servants Tory policies.

  12. [Doyley

    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    confessions,

    I would think he would give it a hot go.

    Whether he would win is hard to say. Three years away. One week in Queensland ( as well as Federal ) politics is a long time now a days.

    Anything is possible up here now especially with the LNP/Can do dynamics. Who would have thought 3 years ago labor would end up with 7 seats !]

    In 3 years time LNP might be lucky to have 7 seats the way they are going???

  13. [Jane Caro @JaneCaro 2h
    So, who voted Lib in NSW? Thanks 4 buying the bullshit or in other words, thanks 4 nothing. Please don’t do it again. Health, schools, gone.]

  14. Sure Big Ship, I agree, but I believe it’s a gradual process of realisation. Most people aren’t that tuned into politics, unfortunately

  15. mari,

    I think anything is possible in politics now and will continue to be the norm as more and more people seek the “best deal ” for themselves.

    Can do is not popular up here at the moment. Whether it is just him or the LNP as a whole, well I think the jury is still out.

    Whether the anger will wash through over the next three years is a major factor but I think the main issue ( strongly associated with that ) is the internal relationships within the LNP. The party is held together with sticky tape and a large number of the nats in rural and regional seats, as well as some libs, may not be too keen on being one term pollies.

    I doubt the LNP would go to 7 seats or anywhere near that but i also think a very close election in 2015 is possible.

    Labor could win with that X factor involved.

  16. Referencing earlier comments re 4 Corners. I happened across this transcript of abbott’s exchange with the reporter, Sophie Ferguson.

    Tony Abbott: university bigot and bully — and still one today

    independentaustralia.net

    Bullying mysogynist Abbott

    Most disturbing of all, arguably, is the fact that Abbott is bigoted against 50 per cent of the population—women.

    We were reminded of this during an ABC Four Corners programme screened in the aftermath of the Independents decision to side with the Labor Party after this year’s federal flection. 

    In the documentary, after a meeting with the Independents in which Abbott attempted to placate the three over a massive black hole just discovered by Treasury in the Coalition’s election costings, a glowering Abbott emerged. 

    The reporter, Sophie Ferguson, immediately asked Abbott the question that any credible journalist would, or should, ask under these circumstances: was this black-hole the reason the Coalition did not want to give the Independents their costings?

    “That is a very offensive question” he snarled, twice, before looming up to the petite Ferguson, scowling. It was a scene reminiscent of the Mark Latham’s handshake with John Howard at the 2004 Federal election that had so cruelled Latham’s chances. It showed an Abbott that, when under pressure – when the fake charm is wiped away – is something of a bully and a misogynist.

    Abbott has shown this several times before.

    For example, in a public debate with the shadow health minister Julia Roxon during the 2007 election campaign, Abbott was an almost unforgivable half-an-hour late, leaving Roxon to make her address and field questions on her own. 

    Roxon began her address, rather understandably, by referring to Mr Abbott’s absence as a lack of respect for the importance of the debate.

    After the debate was concluded, in comments accidentally picked up by the microphones, Abbott shook Roxon’s hand and moved close to her before whispering that she was speaking “bullshit” and calling her “unpleasant”. 
    The typical actions of a bully.

  20. [Trollin’ Dan ‏@Dan_Gulberry
    Roger Waters has asked @TonyAbbottMHR to appear live with him when he performs The Wall. #auspol ]

    [Trollin’ Dan ‏@Dan_Gulberry
    “All in all, he’s just another prick who hit the wall” – @TonyAbbottMHR #auspol ]

  21. More sad news out of Queensland from Professor Quiggin:

    JohnQuiggin ‏@JohnQuiggin

    Very sad story on Qld 730 about scrapping of school for travelling show children in Newmans budget cuts. Worst Premier ever. #qldpol

    This is what happens when you get sold the pup that ‘Debt is bad’ & ‘Taxes are bad’.

  25. Dan #4670

    Tony and the goon squad would fit in perfectly for the scene where Pink turns nasty:

    Are there any queers in the theater tonight?
    Get them up against the wall!
    There’s one in the spotlight, he don’t look right to me,
    Get him up against the wall!
    That one looks Jewish!
    And that one’s a coon!
    Who let all of this riff-raff into the room?
    There’s one smoking a joint,
    And another with spots!
    If I had my way,
    I’d have all of you shot!

  27. swamprat,

    “Who cares?” gave us Cando.

    “Party for the Animals won 2 seats .. they must be good surely”

    So another couple of talking asses make it to Parliament.

  29. Don’t know about rootin’ for the ol’ U.S of A.

    But those NRL pink fool referees must be rootin’ for Manly tonight.

    I know fo-sure they just rooted up a final.

    Bastards.

  30. jeffemu

    Rugby League is a funny game, not heard of in US of A but it so models itself on the ole US of A with their “cheer girls” or are they “dancing girls”? Their Broncos and Cowboys etc etc

  32. PTMD@4672,

    Speaking of Ducktape,

    Where is Duckie?

    I’d been wondering that llately. It seems that his blowup with ‘Harry Snapper Organs’ made him go dark on the Poll Bludger page.

    R U OK, This Little Black Duck?

    I, for one, miss your mordant humour.

  33. guytaur,
    The doctors in Germany have been working with ‘The Berlin Patient’ for a while now to see what it is that helped him get over HIV.

  34. [4676
    Carey Moore

    How are we all on this Friday eve?]

    I’ve had a very long and busy week and wish it was not yet Friday, CM. I have too much to do, obviously. But I’m doing my bit to improve the balance of trade, so that’s a plus. Otherwise, I’m taking my annual passing interest in the footy, hoping for a West Coast/Dockers Grand Final…how is it with you?

  41. C@tmomma, I’ve been worried about the Duck as well. It wasn’t so much a blow up, as I recall, as he seemed to get somewhat nonplussed that I was saying I was feeling a bit upbeat. I think he was used to me being just as mordant as he.
    I’ve tried contacting him via the email addy William sent me, but it seems it’s a not a proper email addy. So don’t know what to do. Other than to say, if you’re lurking, Duck, please come back and talk to us.

  42. [How are we all on this Friday eve?]

    Marvellous. I cooked tacos for dinner, first time in god knows how long I’ve had them, and they were brilliant.

  45. [well, the alcohol sounds good, but I have settled for yoghurt and raspberries, CM. Do you study or lecture?]

    Study at this point, but I will probably be on the other side of the glass within a few years 😉

  46. Abbott has lost the plot.

    [Mr Abbott on Friday implied a federal government dirt unit was behind the story.
    “There is a Labor dirt unit and it’s feeding information to people left, right and centre,” he told reporters in Canberra.
    But Marr says that’s not how he got his story, and it’s understood Mr Abbott’s not questioning his research.
    “They were not fed to me by a Labor dirt unit,” he told AAP.
    “I found the story independently through contacts in the Sydney legal world.”
    Quarterly Essay editor Chris Feik said Mr Abbott was trying to “shoot the messenger” and defended Marr.
    “The idea that he is connected with any Labor dirt unit is completely implausible,” Mr Feik said in a statement]

  50. [Marvellous. I cooked tacos for dinner, first time in god knows how long I’ve had them, and they were brilliant.]

    Yummo! I have some hotdogs I plan to cook later (if that’s not too American) – assuming I don’t get too blasted.

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