Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on last week at 55-45, from primary votes of 34% for Labor (unchanged), 47% for the Coalition (down one to a six-month low) and 9% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time. There are also the following findings on the present government’s reforms:

The introduction of a carbon price is the only major Labor reform with net voter opposition, Essential found. Only 28% of voters thought the introduction of a carbon price was good for Australia, with 51% rating it bad — indeed, 35% of voters rated it “very bad”. Otherwise, support for Labor reforms seems to split into three: highly contested reforms that have majority support, such as the mining tax (supported 49-25%); the NBN (43-28%) and the abolition of WorkChoices (42-27%); mid-tier reforms with widespread approval — paid parental leave (52-20%); stimulus spending during the GFC (54-22% – the BER program is supported 53-20%); accepting the recommendations of the Houston panel on asylum seekers (45-15%) and paid parental leave 52-20%.

Then there are the reforms with very high support: lifting the age pension (70-11%); increasing super to 12% (68-9%); lifting the tax-free threshold to $18,200 (75-4%); the NDIS (58-5%); marine reserves (controversial in some areas but with 67-8% support); dental care (77-5%) and the Gonski education reforms (54-8%).

Also canvassed are Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan and the role of unions in the wake of the HSU scandals and the CFMEU/Grocon dispute in Melbourne – matters which were also covered in a Morgan phone poll of 410 voters conducted Wednesday, results of which can be seen here and here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,836 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 95 of 97
1 … 94 95 96 97

  2. 7news on the footy had shortnitem on Basher denying the allegation.

    I predict his disapproval rating will hit a record low in Newspoll, and well bloody deserved…

  5. Mr Abbott on Friday implied a federal government dirt unit was behind the story.
    “There is a Labor dirt unit and it’s feeding information to people left, right and centre,” he told reporters in Canberra.

    That’s the way it rolls with Abbott. Once he’s tried denying, then lying, his next step is to talk about a Labor Dirt Unit. All he has left after this is, “All right, yes, so what?”

  6. After consulting with her electorate, Anna Burke has just declared her stance on same sex marriage via an email sent to her constituents who contacted her on this issue.
    [I think the community is changing constantly and that sometime in the future we will be in a position where we aren’t debating this issue anymore, that the definition of marriage will be broadened to include same sex couples. I just don’t think we are there yet.

    Most people that have contacted me had the same view as me, that they want all forms of discrimination ended for homosexuals but think the word marriage should remain defined as a union between a man and a woman. I have formed the view that at this present time my community of Chisholm believes that marriage is defined as a union between a man and a woman and is asking me to cast a vote for no change.

    I am replying to your many letters and emails now as I do not know whether I will have the opportunity to vote as I may be in the Speaker’s Chair and do not have a deliberative vote in that position. I wanted to let you know what I would be doing if I was voting, to be very clear about this issue.]

  8. Thanks, fess and Rossmore, I’m relieved about TLBD. One of my favourite species on PB. Don’t have the chance to keep up with everything that happens here, as the laughingly described territory of mental health just keeps getting worse and worse.
    Dawkins knows how the hell people are going to cope in Q’l’d and N.S.W. with the savage cuts. Everyone I know, and O.K. we’re biased, just shakes their heads in total disbelief at what’s happening.

  9. Newman is sinking to new lows. Cutting $350k from St Vinnies is as low as it gets. Heartless, cruel and vindictive … And he seems to enjoy doing it. This is what you get with this particular brand of the LNP.

  11. [International Relations should be interesting…..the journalism too, though it could be irritating as well I imagine.]

    The journalist:news ratio is too disproportionate in this country. And with newspapers dying, it’s frustrating.

    IR is definitely my calling and I have focused on that (and it will be my academic focus) – I try my hardest to bite my lip when people make very amateur and baseless IR declarations on the internets (including on here)

  12. GG,

    Suffice to say I disagree with her but appreciate that she consulted widely in the electorate and communicated her decision to her constituents.

  16. [Most people that have contacted me…..want all forms of discrimination ended for homosexuals]

    This being the case, why does she not support amending the law to remove discrimination? I just cannot see why an MP – among all of us – does not feel they cannot act according to their conscience.

  17. BW @ 4353,

    [It is good that Fiona isn’t around or she would start chatting about v***** dentata.]

    You are safe – for the moment – I’m still back at page 88 catching up after three approx 18 hour days.

    However, it’s an interesting conversation, so clench your knees, m’dear 😀

  19. CM

    I would prefer to know where she stands on SSM and appreciate her honesty, doubly so given she could have avoided conveying her stance with the excuse of being “in the chair”.

  20. CM, does the IR have a regional focus? I have an interest in the nature and course of interactions among our neighbours….think it is the stage on which our future will be determined

  24. Fiona # 4717 – perhaps its already been said, but another reason why Putin should have treated Pussy Riot with more respect?

  25. [4718
    Doyley
    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    briefly @4716,

    Perhaps in all conscience she does not believe she can vote against the wishes of her community.]

    Sure, but the cognitive dissonance is too much for me…..how is it possible to believe one thing (that discrimination should be removed) and yet choose an argument that justifies not ending discrimination. It is a “Yes, but….” position. I think it is incomprehensible.

  30. FB,

    [I’ve never heard a woman called a c**t. I’ve heard women called lots of other things, but never that.]

    Still on page 88 (me, that is).

    Oh dear, Fran, are you serious?

    I’ve heard women called c**nts in many settings, from so-called elite legal bodies to those redneck hoi polloi the miners out in remote Oz.

    IFF this conversation is continuing tomorrow – and iff I manage to catch up with what has been said – I may have some more to say about the sexist abuse(s) of language, but now I’m fading fast and am in desperate need of sleep.

    g’night all.

  33. GG, I know you have a contrary position. I am not going to try to persuade you to change you mind. But for mine, it makes no sense – when you are in a position that requires you to form and express a view – that you would hold one view according to your conscience, values and beliefs, and yet vote for an opposing position. I think it is very sad, to say the least.

  34. Adelaide finished in the top 4 of the regular season and has made it to the prelims. That’s what I had hoped for at the beginning of the season.

    Anything that may happen at this point is just gravy.

  37. briefly @4726,

    Fair enough and I respect your position.

    To me, the concept of conscience is a very complicated area of discussion with no set right or wrong.

    Living by your conscience means many different things to many many people and invokes many different emotions.

    Cheers.

  38. briefly,

    [you appear to have been fully occupied with your marking….]

    The week has been approx 50 hours’ marking, 14 hours’ teaching, I’m not sure how much of emails reassuring (or otherwise) students…

    Plus dealing with some borderline plagiarism attempts, and failure to understand why plagiarism is not a good thing, plus students who want to know how to get really good grades so that they can get into the honours program even though they have no idea how to construct an argument – despite lots of coaching, plus …

    But I do have something to celebrate: I’ve finished two-thirds of my teaching commitments, and one-third of my marking commitments, for this semester!!!

    (and all this done as a 0.2 lecturer 😀 – but what more could a 0.2 lecturer want?)

    Personal whinge now finished: catch y’all tomorrow, though I shall be starting from page 88, out of sheer cussedness.

  39. guytaur,

    I didn’t change nothing. You raised the topic of discrimination. Don’t cry when your rhetorical bulldust gets returned with interest.

  41. GG

    Then you did not read Anna Burkes comment and Briefly’s reply to it.
    You would do well to try and have a civil discussion instead of jumping into invective.

  42. fiona, I don’t envy you. The plagiarism issue is a big deal, for sure. Lecturing is demanding, as far as I can see…good luck with the next spell…. 🙂

  43. guytaur,

    If you think that’s invective, you ought to get out more.

    I’ve been lectured to by more consistent cicadas than you.

  44. GG

    I will also say this. Do you think it is discrimination to deny a black man the right to marry a black woman? If the answer is yes then you admit there was good reason to change things in the US (do not know that it was illegal here for mixed race marriage).
    Thus you can then understand that for the same reason denying gay people the word marriage and the equality that represents is the right thing to do.
    Until then you and I will disagree on a fundamental principle.
    True equality.

  47. [Carey Moore
    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink
    Adelaide finished in the top 4 of the regular season and has made it to the prelims. That’s what I had hoped for at the beginning of the season.

    Anything that may happen at this point is just gravy.]

    Yes they have done well Carey. But there’ll be no gravy next week against Hawthorn . I’m predicting a father of a hiding – something in excess of ten goals.

  48. [Yes they have done well Carey. But there’ll be no gravy next week against Hawthorn . I’m predicting a father of a hiding – something in excess of ten goals.]

    To be honest, if I were a betting man, I would bet on that too. Hawthorn are definitely the favourite of the season and Adelaide are not Grand Final-worthy… yet…

  49. guytaur,

    Given that marriage is defined as a civil union between a man and a woman then the answer is pretty clear.

    Gay is another perfectly legitimate word that has been comandeered by the Homosexual Lobby for their propaganda purposes.

  50. You’d concede that John McTiernan is orchestrating a lot of this campaign against Abbott.
    Not saying for a minute that Abbott is innocent, but to deny that Labor isn’t running a dirt unit of sorts shows some naivety.

Comments Page 95 of 97
1 … 94 95 96 97

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *