UPDATE: Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.
Page covers the north-eastern corner of New South Wales, outside of the northernmost coastal stretch from Byron Bay to the Queensland border which constitutes Richmond. Its main population centres are Ballina on the coast, Lismore and Casino further inland, and Grafton in the south. Labor’s strongest area is Lismore, with the remainder generally leaning slightly to the Nationals. With a median age of 44, the electorate is second only to Lyne as the oldest in Australia, and it ranks in the bottom ten on all measures of income. There are correspondingly low numbers of mortgage payers and high numbers of unemployed, along with the fifth lowest proportion of residents whose main language is other than English.
Page was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, from an area which had historically been divided between Richmond and Cowper. It was won in 1984 by Ian Robinson, who had held Cowper for the National/Country Party since 1963. Like his party leader Charles Blunt in neighbouring Richmond, Robinson was a surprise casualty of the 1990 election, when he was unseated by a 5.2% swing to Labor’s Harry Woods. Woods held on by 193 votes in 1993 before inevitably going out with the tide in 1996. The seat was then held for the Nationals throughout the Howard years by Ian Causley, who had previously been the state member for Clarence – which Harry Woods then proceeded to win at the by-election to fill his vacancy.
Page did not swing greatly on Causley’s watch, but the Nationals benefited from redistributions which added 1.0% to the margin in 2001 and 1.3% in 2007. This did not avail them when Causley retired at the 2007 election, with Labor’s Janelle Saffin picking up a 7.8% swing to defeat Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis (now the member for Clarence after retaining the seat for the Nationals at a November 2011 by-election). In swing terms, Saffin achieved the best result of any Labor member in New South Wales at the 2010 election by picking up a swing of 2.5%, the only other seats in the state to record pro-Labor swings being Robertson (0.9%), Dobell (1.2%) and Eden-Monaro (1.9%).
Saffin was a Lismore-based member of the state upper house from 1995 until the 2003 state election, when she withdrew from preselection after it became apparent she would not retain a winnable position on the ticket. In the period between her two spells in politics, she resumed work as a human rights lawyer and then took up a position in East Timor in 2006 as adviser to Jose Ramos Horta. Saffin publicly supported Kevin Rudd during his leadership challenge in February 2012. The Nationals have again nominated their candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, who won preselection ahead of Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson.
Boerwar
Do the Koalas join the British as things you see no purpose for?
Boerwar
[I see that the Hummer,]
Back in the day before youtube started censoring them the “Iraqi Resistance” published every month compilations of their “Greatest Hits”.Well at least until the US started paying the shedloads to the Sunni “Sons of Iraq” not to attack them Here is some of the “insurgent” war porn youtube still show.
[Iraqi Resistance Against America]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zYmABvzV_0
[IRAQ graveyard american tank under IRAQ ]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTDkVsfa9aM
Boer
a Labor tourism minister once described them as being a brick in a tree.
They’re one of the few mammals whose brains have decreased in size over time – says it all.
As you’d probably remember, Healesville (particularly the Maroondah Dam area, where I grew up) was where the over flow of koalas from French Island were relocated, so I saw plenty of them as a child.
France was (probably still is) the second biggest military supplier to Oz.
spur212:
See CM above.
Exactly why it needs to be done.
[So French help was required?
Nothing wrong with French help at all.]
There is a lot of Aussie ingenuity in their design and manufacture.
z
How about that. Our first place of residence in Australia was Healesville – Goondah Lane. Thereafter we betook ourselves to Toolangi.
confessions
I get it. The problem is that if you have an unpopular leader it comes across like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfNTaRLbl-E
Boerwar
[How about that. Our first place of residence in Australia was Healesville – Goondah Lane. Thereafter we betook ourselves to Toolangi.]
Where did you come from? SA?
Boer
so just up from the school. I used to walk up Goondah every day.
As I see it:
We can look forward to the 2012 rugby league and afl grand finals, 2012 Melbourne Cup, Christmas 2012. New Year 2013, a cricket season, Easter 2013, Anzac Day 2013, the start of the 2013 afl and rugby league seasons, assorted Royal agricultural shows, 2013 afl and rugby league grand finals and perhaps another Melbourne Cup before we have an election.
I don’t think what polling suggests today will be what the electorate think in 2013….or even if the company commissioning it will be in the same form as today.
Koalas have STD?
poroti
I see why you call it war porn. It reminded me of why there are so very many vets with ABI. The soldiers are inside those vehicles and get chucked around like rubber balls. Whenever they hit the sides, the brains get traumatised. The ratio of wia to kia is by historical standards is very, very high. It seems to me that the ongoing costs of long term ABI are going to run to many, many billions.
[France was (probably still is) the second biggest military supplier to Oz.]
You don’t have to tell me about Mirage – but what else have they supplied?
Thales came here as part of the FFG/Anzac class and acquired the Bendigo factory as a bonus – think all the expertise is local.
[Koalas have STD?]
Chlamydia
spur212
Well, you and a few others here have held that view for some time.
You may well be right, but I just can see how (or why) such a change can now come about.
This topic has been done to death, raised from the dead, flogged to death and then buried and still raised and done to death all over again. I doubt whether either “side” will change their minds.
I have got passed the point where anything really surprises me in politics as today’s impossibility becomes tomorrow’s possibility.
Who knows? There might well be some nervousness some months down the track on the backbench , but then Labor might have a Tampa-like event working for it at some point. Who can say?
The impression I get at the moment is that the conservatives are very dark indeed. They really did believe they would in power by now and all other things being equal, they still have a long way to go, even to try again.
For them, the Canberra winter this year must seem extra long and cold. So much hope, so little return.
Finns
They do indeed.
swamprat
I was born in the NEI as was. Then to Holland. Then to Australia.
Koalas are the ultimate bludgers. We should honour them.
Boerwar
NEI?
Netherland East Indies?
[The ALP will win similar to the 2007 result if they bring back Rudd but getting that message through to people who have the same reaction to him that swing voters have to Gillard is extremely difficult]
What makes you believe that your opinion is more valid and more informed than the majority here and the very vast majority of the ALP caucus?
Your comment is utterly ABSURD!
Rudd defeated an old government (Howard) that proposed Workchoices.
Rudd had his chance and made many mistakes. Rudd could never win again like he did in 2007, he is now damaged and used goods.
Labor voters do not prefer Rudd to Gillard by an amount that is worth reinstating Rudd as leader.
Rudd is HISTORY.
Rack off Rudd!
George is on the ball
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7821882614/in/photostream
Tricot
I agree that it’s been done to death.
As for the conservatives, their anger is getting them through this period. Once it’s gone, I expect the pyrotechnics will reignite
spur212:
You are still doing insider stuff because you are assuming that the polls we see today will be replicated in an election campaign. They will not.
And please stop linking to failed Brian Loughnane material. Labor is so much better than that.
Ian – said in clever words that which I have been saying for a long time.
There will be a decision time, but it will be when people are actually forced to make one rather than whinge.
Come later next year, a Labor administration will have been in power for approaching 7 years at the Federal level. Already, this current Labor set-up is the third longest lived since Federation I think someone has said.
The greatest enemy to Labor is, in fact, the “time to change” push from the conservatives as it does have some credibility.
The push, of course, from Labor is: “Better the Devil you know” rather than risk all on flakey Abbott.
BW, so the Koalas are sex maniac like the those fornicating Bonobo Monkeys from Africa?
[I was born in the NEI as was]
BW, Surabaya?
swamprat
[Boerwar
NEI?]
The Netherland East Indies. Wot some called the Dutch East Indies. The same people that bumped into Australia centuries before the likes of Captain Cook. See why W.A. should be still called “New Holland”
Anyway, a far more fundamental question is: if one doesn’t have walnuts for a baby spinach, goats cheese and walnut salad, what can be used as a substitute?
[The problem is that you have an unpopular leader]
Of course.
You have an unpopular leader, not the ALP has an unpopular leader or we have an unpopular leader.
You are a Liberal. Another Liberal that is desperate to avoid Julia Gillard at an election.
You see, there are some you can’t fool 😉
The only really interesting question, was it Rudd (opposition leader 1) or was it Abbott (opposition leader 2)?
[
The review found nothing which contradicted the information provided by Ms Gillard at the time in relation to the AWU/Bruce Wilson allegations and which she has stated consistently since the allegations were first raised.
In September 1995 Ms Gillard took a leave of absence from Slater & Gordon in order to campaign for the Senate.
Ms Gillard’s resignation from the firm became effective on 3 May 1996 when, Slater & Gordon understands, she commenced employment with the then Victorian Opposition leader as an advisor.
Slater & Gordon has regularly invited the Prime Minister back to the firm for events and functions.
Like a number of other notable former lawyers a meeting room in the Melbourne office is named in recognition of her achievements.
]
Confessions
we always use Maccadamias here 🙂
[The same people that bumped into Australia centuries before the likes of Captain Cook. See why W.A. should be still called “New Holland”]
Poroti, Chinamen, 1421
confessions,
Would use pecans, but could use most nuts
z
Dad’s first job in Australia was handyman at a nunnery. He slept on rags in the boiler room and they did not really think it was all that important to pay him. In other words, the good sisters were abusing a migrant as slave labour.
His second job was as a billy boy at the timber mill. He was 32. When one of the sawyers fell on the counter-rotating double saw, then being still somewhat under the influence of the demon rum, a staff re-organisation abruptly became necessary and Dad was promoted to tally man.
Timber getter huts were then built on log skids and the mill manager towed one of these onto the block on Goondah lane. Home sweet home. At night, and on weekends, Dad and one of my uncles knocked up a house, which, I understand, still stands. Neither of them were chippies and you get the feeling that government was rather less than omnipresent in those days.
On saturday afternoons the aussi neighbours would bring over tea and scones and everyone would have afternoon tea, a kindness for which Dad is still grateful. He certainly did not experience, ‘Fuck off, we’re full.’ But then Australians had been rather scared witless during WW2 and ‘populate or perish’ was still rather popular.
Mum and myself had, meanwhile, travelled from the NEI back to Holland for the birth of the first of my sisters. The birth done, and the house built, Mum, sister and myself made our way to Healesville. I had no idea who Dad was. The house we moved to in Toolangi had three walls and the first task was to build the fourth wall. This was not, alas, completed before the first snows of winter.
Confessions
What you’re suggesting sounds like Loughnane Evil Bunny stuff.
As for the polls, public opinion on Gillard in Queensland will barely shift between now and the next election. The baseball bats are ready
also meant to say a walnut nut is not a true nut, just like a koala is not a bear
So electoral-vote.com made an interesting point today that the WASPs (White Anglo-Saxon Protestants) are losing their power in the US. Once upon a time, just about every position of power featured a WASP. Now, they have a President is isn’t white (although is protestant) and a Vice President who is a Catholic. The GOP ticket this year will feature a Mormon and a Catholic. The Supreme Court is composed of six Catholics and three Jews. In Congress, the Speaker is a Catholic, as is the Minority Leader. In the Senate, the Majority Leader is a Mormon. The only one who bucks this trend is the Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell, who is a WASP.
swamprat:
Am thinking pine nuts. Hadn’t thought of macadamias.
Finns
‘Tjimahi’ on my birth certificate – subsequently changed to ‘Chimahi’. It was a colonial military establishment not far from Bandoeng as was, Bandung as is.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Interesting factoid: the end of WASP rule in the USA.
There is no white anglo-saxon protestants in contention for top jobs”
POTUS: black
VPOTUS: catholic
ROMNEY: mormon
RYAN: catholic
Speaker: catholic
Senate leader: mormon
Supreme court: 6 catholics and 3 jews
[spur212
Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 9:20 pm | Permalink
Confessions
What you’re suggesting sounds like Loughnane Evil Bunny stuff.
As for the polls, public opinion on Gillard in Queensland will barely shift between now and the next election. The baseball bats are ready]
I thought Newman would have taught you all lesson, oh well isn’t Queensland (and for that matter WA) lucky that the rest of the country isn’t that stupid.
Hehe carey, you and I are so often on the same page!
You sure you don’t want to vote Liberal?
Pecans?
Interesting.
Finnigans
I confess to this at 3365
[Victoria, I have looked at Bisons. They do not specifically compare the two Governments.
All Dolphins do all day is surf, copulate, surf, eat, surf. I know there are 100′s of the socialist bastards around here. I see them every day!!
You think a Dolphin could produce a handy table ]
fredn
Vic Opp Leader in 1996 was John Brumby
Mod Lib, that’s freaky!
confessions @ 3429:
[Anyway, a far more fundamental question is: if one doesn’t have walnuts for a baby spinach, goats cheese and walnut salad, what can be used as a substitute?]
Pecans are probably the closest, but as swampy suggests “macnuts” or almonds would give you the crunch – just not the bitterness. (Hmm, maybe a dash of Angostura?)
Koalas get a different type of chlamydia to humans and theirs isn’t an STD. The eye problems chlamydia causes in humans aren’t STDs either (which is just as well)
R U going to post the bit about the Missouri Republican Senate candidate claiming “legitimate” (whatever that means) rape victims don’t get pregnant?
Where do they get these Republicans?