Seat of the week: Page

UPDATE: Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.

Page covers the north-eastern corner of New South Wales, outside of the northernmost coastal stretch from Byron Bay to the Queensland border which constitutes Richmond. Its main population centres are Ballina on the coast, Lismore and Casino further inland, and Grafton in the south. Labor’s strongest area is Lismore, with the remainder generally leaning slightly to the Nationals. With a median age of 44, the electorate is second only to Lyne as the oldest in Australia, and it ranks in the bottom ten on all measures of income. There are correspondingly low numbers of mortgage payers and high numbers of unemployed, along with the fifth lowest proportion of residents whose main language is other than English.

Page was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, from an area which had historically been divided between Richmond and Cowper. It was won in 1984 by Ian Robinson, who had held Cowper for the National/Country Party since 1963. Like his party leader Charles Blunt in neighbouring Richmond, Robinson was a surprise casualty of the 1990 election, when he was unseated by a 5.2% swing to Labor’s Harry Woods. Woods held on by 193 votes in 1993 before inevitably going out with the tide in 1996. The seat was then held for the Nationals throughout the Howard years by Ian Causley, who had previously been the state member for Clarence – which Harry Woods then proceeded to win at the by-election to fill his vacancy.

Page did not swing greatly on Causley’s watch, but the Nationals benefited from redistributions which added 1.0% to the margin in 2001 and 1.3% in 2007. This did not avail them when Causley retired at the 2007 election, with Labor’s Janelle Saffin picking up a 7.8% swing to defeat Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis (now the member for Clarence after retaining the seat for the Nationals at a November 2011 by-election). In swing terms, Saffin achieved the best result of any Labor member in New South Wales at the 2010 election by picking up a swing of 2.5%, the only other seats in the state to record pro-Labor swings being Robertson (0.9%), Dobell (1.2%) and Eden-Monaro (1.9%).

Saffin was a Lismore-based member of the state upper house from 1995 until the 2003 state election, when she withdrew from preselection after it became apparent she would not retain a winnable position on the ticket. In the period between her two spells in politics, she resumed work as a human rights lawyer and then took up a position in East Timor in 2006 as adviser to Jose Ramos Horta. Saffin publicly supported Kevin Rudd during his leadership challenge in February 2012. The Nationals have again nominated their candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, who won preselection ahead of Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,581 comments on “Seat of the week: Page”

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  2. I looked at the Bisons.

    It would be very good to have a comparison of figures comparing this Governmnet with Howard/Costello’s.

    It would help me in an argument with a rightist who firmly believes that this government is the worst in Australia’s history!!

  3. [Have a squizz at the BISONS]
    I wonder if there is a nascent BISON relating to structural deficits. Remember the shocker bequeathed by Howard and Mr Hammock?

  4. Tricot

    [I just can’t believe the hubris – at this stage – that some in the conservative ranks are spouting.]

    Possibly because some of their senior people like Hockey, Truss and others aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed?

  6. This is cute but I do not think Steve Gibbon goes far enough….

    [Federal Labor backbencher Steve Gibbons has called for fines for journalists who publish misleading or incorrect stories.]

    [Mr Gibbons, the Member for Bendigo, told Parliament that people were losing faith in journalism and voiced concerns about the lack of accountability in the sector.]

    [He said recommendations from the Finkelstein independent review of the media did not go far enough and journalists should be fined for their errors.]

  7. Ru

    [When opinion is hard in Queensland, it’s well and truly hard

    That is why Bligh was ahead a year before the election according to Galaxy?]

    Bligh was behind 55-45 in the Galaxy of March 2011.

  13. [ davidwh
    Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    Can anyone point me to a direct quote from Abbott where he said he was going to cut public school funding? The best I can find so far is that he said public schools already get a better share which is far from saying he would cut funding. ]

    I think you’re right, david. But he did leave himself wide open to misrepresentation when his mouth went too far in claiming that if there was any injustice in the current arrangements, it was to the private schools. Aside from not matching the evidence, it was inviting such a response. Howard was expert at that type of misrepresentation to Labor opposition statements.

    The further motive is that it’s clear from Pyne, Abbott and Murphy statements that the opposition is going to go all out to undermine Gonski in the name of protecting the current privileges enjoyed by the private schools, even though it’s unknown whether they’ll lose anything at the moment.

    It is a pretty good strategy for Gillard to attack from the other angle, exposing Abbott’s lack of sympathy for public school funding.

  14. I never try to guess which way a poll will move but this fortnight would be especially hard.

    Some say the Govt has had a really good fortnight and some say it’s had a really bad fortnight.

  15. Victoria, I have looked at Bisons. They do not specifically compare the two Governments.

    All Dolphins do all day is surf, copulate, surf, eat, surf. I know there are 100’s of the socialist bastards around here. I see them every day!!

    You think a Dolphin could produce a handy table 😉

  16. What would be fascinating to Mr Bramston?

    A significant increase in Labor’s 2PP and Primary polling combined with Ms Gillard’s numbers languishing in the doldrums.

  17. I see that the Hummer, surely the vehicular symbol of the overwheening arrogance of the neocons, libertarians and AGW denialists, has claimed the lives of three New Zealanders.

    The only other sad feature of note was that a woman soldier demonstrated that she was just as capable of being blown to pieces by an IED as her male colleagues.

    What a waste.

  18. If you want to predict what the poll will tell you tonight just look at how MSM has been reporting. I don’t blame the public. Where else are they to get their information?
    Are we forgetting the radio report of Martians landing?

  19. I see that 4cnrs is doing Koalas. There are hundreds of thousands of koalas.

    It is a pity 4cnrs did not ‘do’ some of the less charismatic species which really are endangered.

  23. Boerwar

    [I see that the Hummer, surely the vehicular symbol of the overwheening arrogance of the neocons, libertarians and AGW denialists, has claimed the lives of three New Zealanders.]

    They probably would have been safer in Aussie Bushmasters. I am surprised the Kiwis do not have them. They are proven better/safer.

  24. Regardless of what the poll comes up with, within a day, week etc it will be history.

    No point living on the edge.

    I will be surprised if there is any big shift to Labor just yet. A movement the other way would be perplexing but then the poll that counts is still one budget, one election campaign and possibly 14 months away.

    Even if the polls were as they are now, coming into the election I would still not give it away.

    The Ch 7 stuff about Gillard being replaced “within a week” or what ever, must be about the 50th of such predictions made by somebody.

    Why do they bother? Of all the times the PM has looked most at home, it is right now.

    Mind you, politics is such a strange business who can tell?

    If Gillard is destroyed before the election by the opposition, but more likely by her own side – if it were to happen at all – Labor has absolutely no chance of winning. Why vote for any party which changes leaders mid-stream on what seems like whims.

    Even the conservatives are not that stupid.

  27. swamprat

    There is absolutely no doubt about it at all. The Bushmasters are far safer than Hummers.
    The ‘reason’ given in the press for the three travelling in a Hummer was that it was only Hummers that could cover that particular terrain.

    In oiklanguage, that did seem to me to be arse-covering shite.

  28. The “Hummer” is of course the absolutely best symbol of the USA. Looks Hollywood tough but a very poor design with no redeeming features except the numbers produced.

  32. I am no expert at all but the Bushmaster seems a pretty good vehicle. I understand the Brits use it too now. They were jealous of the Aussies.

  35. Abbott’s a big government conservative ala Howard. Newman’s the “neoliberal.” One believes in cutting, the other believes in spending.

    The problem with linking Abbott to Newman is that Abbott is promising Queensland “Howard without WorkChoices” whereas Newman is what Queensland has never really seen before. If you attack it or try and link the two, it looks too manufactured

  36. Wikipedia

    [The Bushmaster is currently in service with the Australian Army, Royal Australian Air Force, Royal Netherlands Army and British Army.]

  39. [It would help me in an argument with a rightist ]

    Never argue with idiots.
    (they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience etc etc.)

  40. I think the idea of linking Abbott and Newman is not to say their policies will be identical but to demonstrate the kind of arrogance you get when you hand them the keys to power, with no real oversight (in Abbott’s case, he could well win a friendly senate)

  41. I am having difficulty thinking of redeeming features of koalas.

    Because eucalypt leaves have so very little nutrition in them, koalas spend most of their lives eating, digesting, shitting and sleeping. Very occasionally they have a shag and give each other deadly chlamydia. They are extremely attractive to the kook end of the conservation movement.

    They look cute but, as many a human has discovered, their claws are horrendous and horrendously powerful.

    I have yet to meet anyone who has had a go at eating them. They look and smell like they would taste horrible.

    Their fur is excellent for coats, so that is a positive.

  44. spur

    [Abbott’s a big government conservative ala Howard. Newman’s the “neoliberal.” One believes in cutting, the other believes in spending.]

    [The problem with linking Abbott to Newman is that Abbott is promising Queensland “Howard without WorkChoices” whereas Newman is what Queensland has never really seen before. If you attack it or try and link the two, it looks too manufactured]

    Maybe.. certainly Abbott is massive tax cuts with massive spending … obviously economic vandal.

    But people know meanness when they see it.

  48. Boerwar

    I have heard it said that koalas are the wombats of the trees. Which, no doubt, does not endear them to you.

    But I am not happy as I watch 4C. Koalas v. buildings/dogs/developers is no contest.

  49. spur212:

    You’re doing insider stuff.

    The reason you link Abbott with Newman is because it conveys a sense of heightened risk and insecurity about a potential Abbott PMship.

  50. Tricot

    The ALP will win similar to the 2007 result if they bring back Rudd but getting that message through to people who have the same reaction to him that swing voters have to Gillard is extremely difficult

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