UPDATE: Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.
Page covers the north-eastern corner of New South Wales, outside of the northernmost coastal stretch from Byron Bay to the Queensland border which constitutes Richmond. Its main population centres are Ballina on the coast, Lismore and Casino further inland, and Grafton in the south. Labor’s strongest area is Lismore, with the remainder generally leaning slightly to the Nationals. With a median age of 44, the electorate is second only to Lyne as the oldest in Australia, and it ranks in the bottom ten on all measures of income. There are correspondingly low numbers of mortgage payers and high numbers of unemployed, along with the fifth lowest proportion of residents whose main language is other than English.
Page was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, from an area which had historically been divided between Richmond and Cowper. It was won in 1984 by Ian Robinson, who had held Cowper for the National/Country Party since 1963. Like his party leader Charles Blunt in neighbouring Richmond, Robinson was a surprise casualty of the 1990 election, when he was unseated by a 5.2% swing to Labor’s Harry Woods. Woods held on by 193 votes in 1993 before inevitably going out with the tide in 1996. The seat was then held for the Nationals throughout the Howard years by Ian Causley, who had previously been the state member for Clarence – which Harry Woods then proceeded to win at the by-election to fill his vacancy.
Page did not swing greatly on Causley’s watch, but the Nationals benefited from redistributions which added 1.0% to the margin in 2001 and 1.3% in 2007. This did not avail them when Causley retired at the 2007 election, with Labor’s Janelle Saffin picking up a 7.8% swing to defeat Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis (now the member for Clarence after retaining the seat for the Nationals at a November 2011 by-election). In swing terms, Saffin achieved the best result of any Labor member in New South Wales at the 2010 election by picking up a swing of 2.5%, the only other seats in the state to record pro-Labor swings being Robertson (0.9%), Dobell (1.2%) and Eden-Monaro (1.9%).
Saffin was a Lismore-based member of the state upper house from 1995 until the 2003 state election, when she withdrew from preselection after it became apparent she would not retain a winnable position on the ticket. In the period between her two spells in politics, she resumed work as a human rights lawyer and then took up a position in East Timor in 2006 as adviser to Jose Ramos Horta. Saffin publicly supported Kevin Rudd during his leadership challenge in February 2012. The Nationals have again nominated their candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, who won preselection ahead of Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson.
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Is “macnuts” a naughty word?!
[victoria
Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 9:23 pm | Permalink
fredn
Vic Opp Leader in 1996 was John Brumby]
Who set up the question on sunday is the question I would like answered. Abbott (opposition leader 2) or Rudd (opposition leader 1).
The Finnigans
[Poroti, Chinamen, 1421]
Nah. The Macassans would have been way ahead.Them and the Melanesians and the Polynesians. Especially the Polynesians as Straya be hard to miss by ocean going peeps.
[‘Tjimahi’ on my birth certificate – subsequently changed to ‘Chimahi’. It was a colonial military establishment not far from Bandoeng as was, Bandung as is.]
BW, about 20Kms up the hill north of Bandung. A nice cool place. There was a famous Holland School there.
fredn
Oops my bad. Misunderstood your question.
The name to look out for in the US, ML, in the future is likely to be Lopez.
Also, there will be a redistribution of land from California, Arizona and Texas to the US of Mexico!
Failing this, regardless, Hispanics will be the largest group and, for the most part are Democrats – at present.
I think this is called democracy. However, with the return of some of the land to Mexico (not serious of course) maybe just a bit of revenge.
[All Dolphins do all day is surf, copulate, surf, eat, surf. I know there are 100′s of the socialist bastards around here. I see them every day!!]
sw, i aint got STD
[R U going to post the bit about the Missouri Republican Senate candidate claiming “legitimate” (whatever that means) rape victims don’t get pregnant?
Where do they get these Republicans?]
Seriously, the Republicans are great at pushing the line so hard. To the point where you don’t even really react to it anymore. This is probably one of the major reasons why US politics has gotten to where it is; we’re becoming desensitised to Republican bile.
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 9:01 pm | Permalink
z
How about that. Our first place of residence in Australia was Healesville – Goondah Lane. Thereafter we betook ourselves to Toolangi.]
BW
What years did you live at Healesville?
s
[Boerwar
Do the Koalas join the British as things you see no purpose for?]
I hate to shock you, but I am quite an anglophile. Given the choice of English, French, Latin or Dutch literature in the original I would gladly choose English literature any time. My bookshelves are choc-a-bloc the best of English lit.
I much prefer British humour.
I loved London and the way in which the historic fabric of the city is loved and honoured. I appreciate the British attitude to wildlife. I believe we Australians owe a huge debt to Britain for many of the finer things in our governance arrangements.
That said, I see no particular reason to allow the British to get away with the murder of history – particularly where it affects Australia, and particularly where the murder of history is done to gloss over evil.
Given the choice between a Brit and a koala, give me a Brit any time.
I suspect he is going to lose Missouri (those kind of comments don’t go down well with 50% of the electorate!!!!!), which the Republicans were very likely to win.
That seat could very well be the difference between Republican and Democrat Senate control.
Darn
Around 1951.
[Tricot
Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 9:29 pm | Permalink
The name to look out for in the US, ML, in the future is likely to be Lopez.]
Yep.
The Democrats are solidifying the black and hispanic vote, bodes very well for the future.
I reckon Texas, Georgia and Arizona could be close in the next decade, for one or other of those reasons…
[Failing this, regardless, Hispanics will be the largest group and, for the most part are Democrats – at present.]
A growing demographic who, much to the annoyance of the GOP, are collected around the southwest and Texas and the Democrats realise the long term benefits of this and are happily embracing them. Just look who the planned keynote speaker of the upcoming Democratic National Convention is: Mayor Julian Castro of San Antonio, Texas.
[victoria
Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 9:29 pm | Permalink
fredn
Oops my bad. Misunderstood your question.]
NP.
Psephos clearly blamed Rudd. That in itelf is interesting, Rudd has no hope of returning if the hacks are so fast to blame him. I would love to know if he is tright.
Labor can’t win nationally unless it picks up seats in Queensland. And it can’t do that -indeed it will lose its last seats there – if Rudd is not the leader. But it can’t switch to Rudd because the Indies will pull the plug on the government. So nothing’s going to happen. Not this year anyway.
We’ve been through this many times before. Nothing changes. Certainly not the polls.
Just saw on abc richo being made up, wonder if they do embalming
Finns
‘…a nice cool place…’
You have the advantage of me.
I have no memory of it – just some rather aged photographs of a colonial military culture which, thankfully, has been history for a long time.
My God Carey, we did it again (Texas!!!!)
The Floridan Hispanics (ex-Cuba) can be very, very right wing.
[I suspect he is going to lose Missouri (those kind of comments don’t go down well with 50% of the electorate!!!!!), which the Republicans were very likely to win.]
Missouri is a very conservative state though. They only won that seat in 2006, on the back of a landslide. I think it will come down to the strength of the parties at large. If Obama is romping it home in the general election, the coattails should drag some of these close races over to the Dems. However, if it’s close or a Romney win, then I expect Missouri to be a GOP pickup.
jeez assange , just threw popcorn
So a Newspoll is released tonight?
I wonder who would be feeling the most pressure?
I say Tony Abbott
fredn
You may find the answer in the PM’s response to Kelly. Would she be more animated if it was a question from Abbott or Rudd?
C
I wonder just when the political parties get the Newspoll results?
Mr Cameron just did a bit of a stab at Ms Gillard. Labor blokes cannot help themselves. No discipline.
BW
Yes, the ex-Cuban group in Florida are not quite the same group as other Hispanics – especially Mexicans. However, it is probably the older generation which is more to the right and helps explain Florida’s key role for the Republicans.
A case of not over-generalising here.
Boerwar
I really think at the same time as everyone else?
Tricot
Agreed.
C
I don’t know. I raised it in relation to a comment about Mr Abbott being assumed to be under pressure and assumed that the commentator was implying that the polls were turning bad for Mr Abbott.
I had an aunty who was Dutch. They came to Australia from the Dutch East Indies sometime in the mid-30’s.
She had an elder brother Dudley (known as ‘Dud’).
In 1940 when Dud found out my father and his brother where going to enlist in the AIF he went off with them to enlist as well. When he was giving his personal details progress came to a halt when he gave his birth place. An Officer was called and a suggestion made to Dud that there were Dutch liaison people at Vic Barracks and he should talk to them.
Dud’s reaction to this was ‘I don’t want to join the bloody Dutch Army, I want to join the AIF’.
Officer’s response was ‘Tomorrow I won’t be here – have a better birthplace when you come back’.
[My God Carey, we did it again (Texas!!!!)]
Greater minds! 😉
There is also a “pinkening” (or purpleing?) of the South that appears to be occuring. It seems that, as whites in the South are becoming more Republican, non-whites are becoming more Democratic. While the whites certainly still outnumber the non-whites and you can still call them safe Republican, the maps may appear misleading, as it may same like the weak GOP support suggests they are losing their grip on those states, when they are actually solid, just polarised. However, in states like Texas, with a rapidly growing Latino population, this can have long term positive effects for the Democrats.
CTar1 @ 3481
What a great story.
[Rudd has no hope of returning if the hacks are so fast to blame him.]
The rabid right will blame anything and everything on Rudd in a concerted effort to continue their smear campaign.
Their hatred must be reaching astronomical proportions given that all their smearing so far has left Rudd the most preferred person in the country to be PM. How that must hurt them and fuel their hatred.
But in the end the mafia wanker-right will not be able to control a bunch of MPs about to lose their seats 5 minutes before an election just because the factions want to protect their power against Rudd.
BW
Just as a matter of interest, did you ever travel on the Healesville railway line?
I’m very interested in the history of the Healesville and Warburton lines.
Boerwar
[Given the choice between a Brit and a koala, give me a Brit any time.]
Very funny, in a Dutch sort of way.
But seriously, it is not rational to “hate” a non-human animal.
Darn
Not that I can recall.
Boer
I’m sure most people in both parties are interested in the polls and are likely to be aware when they are released.
I’d say the monkey feels the most pressure for this one 😎
Jaeger:
Went with pine nuts, offset with some balsamic vinegar.
Yum.
Mind you, why wouldn’t Abbott be feeling pressure on the polls, they’re the only things keeping him in the job!
Oh the tedious yank obsessed are here.. so relevant to absolutely bloody nothing…
night all!
swamprat
[But seriously, it is not rational to “hate” a non-human animal.]
I don’t hate koalas. I just think the koala fuss and kerfuffle is disproportionate.
We have whole ecoystems disappearing. We have dozens of endangered species that number in hundreds or, maybe, thousands. OTOH, there are hundreds of thousands of koals.
Thanks BW
Just thought I’d ask.
Who is this blonde (unfunny) clown of a lady on QandA?
If Texas joins the other mega states (California and New York) in the Democrat column, we are looking at around 370 ECVs at Presidential elections (nearly 70% to 30%).
It may not be rational, but I seriously hate ticks despite my Dad’s best efforts to convince me of their importance in the circle of life. I still don’t buy it.
Where is James J?
Darn
I am seeing Dad in a week’s time. He may have travelled on the line. Do you have any particular enquiries that you would like me to follow?
[If Texas joins the other mega states (California and New York) in the Democrat column, we are looking at around 370 ECVs at Presidential elections (nearly 70% to 30%).]
It would force the GOP to realign themselves to be more electable in those states or, at least, other blue states.
John Michael Howson suspended for four weeks for abusing Assanges mum.