The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred, their lead now at 57-43, with both major parties steady on the primary vote (49% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor) and the Greens down one to 10%. The poll also includes Essential’s monthly leader approval ratings, which have Tony Abbott gaining three points on approval to 35% and down one on disapproval to 53%, with Julia Gillard steady on approval at 32% and up two on disapproval to 58%. Abbott has also nudged ahead on preferred prime minister, gaining from 37-37 to 38-37.
Further questions find broad hostility to the Greens, whose “performance in federal parliament” is rated as good by 17% and poor by 47%, with 53% rating their policies “too extreme” and 26% “representing the views of many voters”. There are two questions on Julian Assange which seem to suggest sympathy for him has declined since March: 28% now believe the support he has received from the government has been appropriate, compared with 22% in March, while those who think otherwise (though this could potentially include those who think it has provided too much support) is down from 36% to 33%.
Preselection stuff:
• The WA Liberals have confirmed the preselection of Christian Porter in Pearce, ahead of 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth and local party members Rod Henderson and Bill Crabtree. Gary Adshead of The West Australian reports the winning margin was 39 to 15, which I take to refer to Porter’s and Butterworth’s totals in the first and final round. UPDATE: The Australian reports Porter and Butterworth were the only two candidates, another two who had been mentioned having withdrawn.
• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports a field of nine candidates has nominated for the LNP preselection for Fisher on July 29: “Stephen Ainscough, Mr Brough, Richard Bruinsma, James McGrath, Graeme Mickelberg, Alan Nielsen, Daniel Purdie, Peta Simpson and Andrew Wallace”.
• The Nationals have preselected Matthew Fraser, owner of two Hungry Jacks stores in the Tweed Heads are, as their candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond. Fraser won a preselection vote over Alan Hunter, a Myocum beef farmer and the candidate in 2010, Scott Cooper, a university lecturer, and John McMahon, a Tweed Heads newsagency owner.
• The Cessnock Advertiser reports the Nationals have preselected Michael Johnsen, Scone businessman and former mayor of Upper Hunter, to run against Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter (margin 12.5%). Johnsen also ran in the seat in 1996 and 2010.
• Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports five union leaders have publicly endorsed Stephen Jones, Labor’s member for Throsby, as Right forces led by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay marshall forces for a preselection challenge. The unions concerned include the Right faction Australian Workers Union, together with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, Australian Services Union, Maritime Union of Australia and United Services Union.
According to Essential..
Here’s my cherry picked data 😉
[Do you think the performance of the Greens in Federal Parliament has been good or poor?]
Of Labor voters, 21% – total good ; 35% – neither good nor poor.
[Do you think the performance of the Greens in Federal Parliament has been good or poor?]
Among respondents aged under 35, 24% – good/very good; 29% poor/very poor leaving 47% in the neither good nor poor, and don’t know categories.
50% of Labor voters do not think the Greens policies are too extreme.
Demographics of voters in the too extreme category: men (61%), aged 55+ (77%) and Libs/Nat voters (70%)
my say @ 45
It is not a matter of hunting around for the poll that best suits your position.
Polls are a serious attempt to measure the sentiment of the electorate and they do this more accurately than many here give them credit.
Currently, all the polls are broadly in agreement on the standing of the parties and leaders federally.
It is fine to say “well that is how they are now and there are 15 or 16 months to go until the election”, but if you think they are going to change then you need to have a reason for believing that. If you think they will just magically change either for no reason, or under the influence of the calendar, then you are dreaming.
You have plenty of company on this site in having such beliefs.
For those that missed the presser. PM response to Morrison
@latikambourke: PM Gillard ‘Mr Abbott’s excuse for not working with the Govt has been pointing to the Refugee Convention’ but then says it’s outdated.
@43 – well I would disagree – I think both Gray and Smith are in for it because the MRRT is still a big issue here in WA, and both their electorates are becoming bluer due to both redistributions and changing demographics.
Gray has also already been targeted by the Unions here in WA as an Enemy of the Unions. He is so right royally rogered he’ll wish he never left Woodside. I bet he is already shopping his CV.
I do hope that they have Smith on the ABC Election Panel on the 2013 Election night so I can see his reaction as he loses his seat.
[Hewson thought he was home and hosed too.]
He had a terrible speechwiter – can’t quite recall his name.
👿
Lik the only way you can start to treat these opinion polls with any respect
if they polled on the coalition policies which they wont
so the opinion polls arent near reality
@48 – anyone asked Gillard how much a Birthday cake will cost?
I doubt she’d even go in a Cake shop in order to avoid the cream pies in the face.
why the opinion polls recorded is very poor , when an government only has been in office for 2 terms
The opinion polls predict a government will be wiped out, but on election day the government is retain
[AUSTRALIAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GAINS A WEEK AFTER CARBON TAX INTRODUCED
Roy morgan]
And 48 hours after Abbott leaves the country.
Federal Poll: L-NP Primary Virtually Unchanged,ALPSupport FallsAsGST Arrives. 18 Jul 2000
Finding No. 3314 Federal Poll: L-NP Support Falls To Lowest Level Since Founding Of Liberal Party During Second World War.
Polls by Category and Period: Find a Poll:
Select a Country: Australian
Select a Category: Federal Polls Enter a Finding No. or an Article No.:
Select a Period: Jul 2000 show find
July 2000
Finding No. 3316 Federal Poll: L-NP Primary Virtually Unchanged,ALPSupport FallsAsGST Arrives. 18 Jul 2000
Finding No. 3314 Federal Poll: L-NP Support Falls To Lowest Level Since Founding Of Liberal Party During Second World War. 04 Jul 2000
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THIS WAS WHEN TNE GST CAME IN
The opinion polls being correct after predicting a change of government (when the government only been in office for 2 terms) is lower then 5% in the last 30years of state and federal politics
July 2000
Finding No. 3314 Federal Poll: L-NP Support Falls To Lowest Level Since Founding Of Liberal Party
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/federal-polls.cfm
Any one can do the research
So i can see why the coalition supporters are doubtful , the coalition under abbott can win
the trend is not on their side , the opinion polls are just a fairytale for them
If Newman keeps sticking it to the Ambos and Nurses in QLD, you just might see a bit of a bounce in QLD too, my say.
He seems to have wasted little time in getting on with a Union bashing agenda and given that many of these poor benighted souls must have voted for him in order for the LNP to have won such a thumping majority, he seems rather cavalier about casting that support aside.
Vote for the bastard and this is the thanks you get, many wil be starting to think.
Still, in many ways they have no-one but themselves to blame.
I sure hope wielding those baseball bats felt good, because they’ve got another four years of this to endure now.
Off topic
@wolfcat: I hate people that get shots like this…Aurora Australis from Tinderbox, Tasmania http://t.co/dmRD9Bzt
CC
According to the quarterly newspoll aggregation by states, there has actually been a small swing to the ALP since the 2010 election in WA.
This is from the earlier presser Mr Swan did. I agree with this comment wholeheartedly
@latikambourke: Treasurer Wayne Swan says the Liberal Party in Australia has gone to the ‘loopy right’ and copying the Tea Party model.
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Select a Country: Australian
Select a Category: Federal Polls Enter a Finding No. or an Article No.:
Select a Period: Jul 2001 show find
July 2001
Finding No. 3413 Federal Poll: Liberal-National Party Gains But ALP Would Still Win Federal Election
03 Jul 2001
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BUT WE DID NOT ,
Apologies if already posted. Not sure if Tones will appreciate Pyne making this declaration.
[The Coalition will call a double dissolution election if it wins government
Mr Pyne told Sky News today that the Coalition will use a double dissolution election to abolish the Labor measure, if necessary.
“If the Senate is still controlled by the Labor-Green alliance (after the next election), and they refuse to roll back the carbon tax, then we will have another election,” Mr Pyne told Sky News]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/carbon-tax-pledge-stands-says-pyne-20120716-225ia.html#ixzz20l3wgWtx
Nurses cop it a lot more than doctors.
I know a doctor in ED who spat at and sworn at by a patient getting out of their restraints. He grabbed her forcefully and was sacked by the Health Department. Needless to say, he won his case for wrongful dismissal.
[NURSES feel they must accept violence as part of their job, new research shows.
A study into violence at the Lyell McEwin Hospital found nurses do not always report incidents because they feel nothing will be done, or they would be victimised by managers.
They also feel ill-equipped and untrained to deal with the ongoing violence.
Clinical nurse and University of Adelaide masters student April Stanley-Banks conducted the study after being exposed to violence during a decade in the LMH emergency department.
There was a culture that violence is part of the job, she said.]
today’s essential poll proves my point about Abbott.
As soon as he leave the country, his approval rating goes up. By next week, his approval will be into the 40s.
Out of sight, off our screens, and people think more kindly of him. Can he go through an election campaign in hiding?
This is one of Greens Party policy measures on the arts.
[prioritise and safeguard public funding for our national artistic and cultural institutions.]
What does ‘prioritise’ mean here? Give this measure priority over other measures? If so, and given the sheer number of policy measures that the Greens Party will ‘prioritise’, is a Milne government going to give everything the highest priority? Doesn’t that mean there will actually be no priorities?
Or does ‘prioritise’ here mean that a Milne government will make a queue out of national artistic and cultural institutions and give priority to some over others?
What does ‘safeguard’ mean here? If the Milne Government is going to fund the institutions, does a Milne government intend to safeguard the institution’s funding from themselves?
Naturally, there are the usual questions about Greens Party policies. How much funding will a Milne government give to the institutions before it safeguards them?
The interesting thing is that we are being asked to believe that the intellectual driving force in centre left has left Labor, and gone to the Greens.
Even a cursory examination of the Greens Party policy measures demonstrates that they are a magic pudding wish list devoid of policy integrity.
This does not mean that the measures are no good. It does mean that they need a lot of work before they are credible measures to take to an electorate with a view to competing for government.
Voting patterns do not seem to have changed with the introduction of the carbon price and the accompanying compensation package.
Some bloggers say stick with Julia. Others want to go back to Kevin. A third group favours some other person.
All three groups present respectable arguments.
I don’t know who, if anyone, will prove to be right.
Good night, and good luck.
“who was spat at ….”
poroti
I’m impressed that poll shows the electorate has enough nous to realise Abbott won’t be able to dump the carbon tax.
If Essential moves 1 point in favor of Coalition after Abbott is out of the country for 3 days, I’m predicting 59-41 2PP for next weeks poll.
BEMUSED 52
I actually never had u in mind myself . Or anything ,
If mawuire or some o ne else ‘posted these , u say nothing,
,
But well it dkesnt suit YOur position u mean
Im just interested how the gst , effected polling
U really are a mysterious person,
Let’s hope we don’t have another 9/11 to save Labor in 2013.
Diogenes
[I’m impressed that poll shows the electorate has enough nous to realise Abbott won’t be able to dump the carbon tax.]
Join the club.That point obviously struck a chord in the electorate.
[@wolfcat: I hate people that get shots like this…Aurora Australis from Tinderbox, Tasmania http://t.co/dmRD9Bzt%5D
Sigh………………..
Very Noice!
I woudnt expect ess o move they do rolling fortnights so william ssys
Dont think about polls .
Pye in tne sky, thats why i posted the old ones, its great reading
Bit like reading my stars
Took long enough to get this out.
@brisbanetimes: LNP move to abolish Abstudy is “nonsensical”, says federal opposition Indigenous Affairs spokesman. http://t.co/bSQpyljh
when the carbon price hasnt damage the prices in another month or so , the coalition supporters will get more nervous
my say
I always like Pie in the Sky tv series. Two of my faces. Crime and Food. 🙂
faces=faves
[Meguire Bob
Posted Monday, July 16, 2012 at 3:02 pm | Permalink
when the carbon price hasnt damage the prices in another month or so , the coalition supporters will get more nervous]
I thought everything would change on the 1st of July?
Pegasus
Most people responding to that poll would not have the slightest idea that Greens Party policies are uncosted.
They will not know that no-one in the Greens Party has the faintest idea about whether they will be able to afford all or some of their measures.
Nor will they know how the measures will be applied, nor their impact, because the Greens Party doesn’t know itself.
Tinderbox sits just at the point towards storm bay
http://www.google.com/#sclient=tablet-gws&hl=en&tbo=d&q=photos++of++view++drom+tinderbox++tasmania&oq=photos++of++view++drom+tinderbox++tasmania&gs_l=tablet-gws.3…10216.13978.1.14586.10.10.0.0.0.0.0.0..0.0…0.0…1ac.cAX2ozdQ9aA&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=6f1fec75510ec9f1&biw=1280&bih=800
bluegreeen
it has ,the longer abbott’s propaganda is exposed the worse it gets for them
Interesting to see Morrision out questioning the UN Refugee Convention today – saying it doesn’t work, out of date etc.
Despite the obvious hypocrisy it shows, is he paving the way the an Opposition backflip?
Longer the coalition keeps Abbott and his carbon price propaganda lies, they are with no hope when the its time for people to face reality election time
Nice to see Richard Farmer backing up our William in Crikey newsletter today –
[Our Crikey election specialist, the Poll Bludger, gives a sensibly reasoned case why not too much significance should be attached to a Greens victory in the coming weekend Melbourne state byelection. The byelection campaign having been sucked into the vortex of national politics, he writes, Canberra press gallery journalists have been having their overheated way with its federal implications. The suggestion that a Labor loss “should in and of itself cause ‘shock waves’ is pure hyperbole.”
The operative word in his analysis is “should” because rational analysis does not have much to do with Labor Party thinking at the moment. My guess is that defeat “would” cause plenty of “shock waves” – waves that for no good reason would wash over Prime Minister Julia Gillard.]
bluegreen
[I thought everything would change on the 1st of July?]
Australians are apparently slow on the UPTAKE!.
Well bemused thinks i posted the old polls becauce of kevin , last person on my mind
Iwanted to show crank , how it was thought becauce of the gst we where home and hosed
It did not happen that was 2000
Again in 2001! We didnt win
So thats why polling this far ou t should just given a passing glance or thought
Not an obbsession
bg
Abbott’s standing and his party are going to lose ground. One of their strengths is being undermined today. Morrison talking about scrapping human rights and protecting people from fleeing. Gillard pointing out that was their excuse to vote no to Government legislation.
So now the electorate knows it was Abbott voting no that scuttled the Government backed Oakeshott bill. Abbot wil be seen as Mr Scrap Human Rights and a hypocrite voting no just to get into power out there in voter land,
Morrison moving the coalition into position to run on leaving the UN Convention on refugees. They will campaign on the fact that Greens in control of the Senate will mean any move on asylum seekers being blocked and urge a people not to vote Green in the upper house. Long game for the coalition here.
thought everything would change on the 1st of July?
Sarcasim is the lowest of wits
U knos that was just a date discussed.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke
Scott Morrison says the Menzies Govt signed the Refugee Conv. in 1954 but it was in a context of people directly fleeing persecution
Scott Morrison says Refugee Convention has been ‘abused’ over time – doc itself doesn’t need much change but legal interpretations need do.
]
WTF is Morrisson on about? The last sitting’s Hansard is full of L-NP speeches lauding the merits of this convention, and why it just has to be included in the Migration Act.
Maybe someone n the MSM will notice the gross hypocrisy?
g
[So now the electorate knows it was Abbott voting no that scuttled the Government backed Oakeshott bill.]
That is odd. Hansard shows that both the Coalition and the Greens Party voted against the Bill in the Senate.
I suppose Mr Abbott ‘scuttled’ the bill but the Greens did not ‘scuttle’ the bill because they had their fingers crossed behind their backs while they were voting.
Great fun while abnott is away,
Lets keep a list of all the stuff they say,
Opp to abnott or , even more right than abbott, i will be i teresting to listen to.
While the the rabbitts away
All the boys and girls come out to play
my say @ 93
Absolute rubbish (as usual).
I posted to try to help you better understand what polls do.