Essential Research: 57-43 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred, their lead now at 57-43, with both major parties steady on the primary vote (49% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor) and the Greens down one to 10%. The poll also includes Essential’s monthly leader approval ratings, which have Tony Abbott gaining three points on approval to 35% and down one on disapproval to 53%, with Julia Gillard steady on approval at 32% and up two on disapproval to 58%. Abbott has also nudged ahead on preferred prime minister, gaining from 37-37 to 38-37.

Further questions find broad hostility to the Greens, whose “performance in federal parliament” is rated as good by 17% and poor by 47%, with 53% rating their policies “too extreme” and 26% “representing the views of many voters”. There are two questions on Julian Assange which seem to suggest sympathy for him has declined since March: 28% now believe the support he has received from the government has been appropriate, compared with 22% in March, while those who think otherwise (though this could potentially include those who think it has provided too much support) is down from 36% to 33%.

Preselection stuff:

• The WA Liberals have confirmed the preselection of Christian Porter in Pearce, ahead of 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth and local party members Rod Henderson and Bill Crabtree. Gary Adshead of The West Australian reports the winning margin was 39 to 15, which I take to refer to Porter’s and Butterworth’s totals in the first and final round. UPDATE: The Australian reports Porter and Butterworth were the only two candidates, another two who had been mentioned having withdrawn.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports a field of nine candidates has nominated for the LNP preselection for Fisher on July 29: “Stephen Ainscough, Mr Brough, Richard Bruinsma, James McGrath, Graeme Mickelberg, Alan Nielsen, Daniel Purdie, Peta Simpson and Andrew Wallace”.

• The Nationals have preselected Matthew Fraser, owner of two Hungry Jacks stores in the Tweed Heads are, as their candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond. Fraser won a preselection vote over Alan Hunter, a Myocum beef farmer and the candidate in 2010, Scott Cooper, a university lecturer, and John McMahon, a Tweed Heads newsagency owner.

• The Cessnock Advertiser reports the Nationals have preselected Michael Johnsen, Scone businessman and former mayor of Upper Hunter, to run against Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter (margin 12.5%). Johnsen also ran in the seat in 1996 and 2010.

• Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports five union leaders have publicly endorsed Stephen Jones, Labor’s member for Throsby, as Right forces led by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay marshall forces for a preselection challenge. The unions concerned include the Right faction Australian Workers Union, together with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, Australian Services Union, Maritime Union of Australia and United Services Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,483 comments on “Essential Research: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 110
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  2. Regarding the convention, Morrison is only voicing what is happening in reality. Malaysia is a variation of the convention agreed to by the UNHCR because of the realities being dealt with at present. How can people criticise Morrison and yet agree to the Malaysia solution?

  4. [And the beauty of the Essential Poll is that it is self-selectingly biased towards the ALP.]

    So why do you think its results have been consistently a few points worse for Labor than Newspoll’s lately?

  6. So the Coalition have come up with a new tactic:

    – get Abbott out of the country
    – have Morrsion question the refugee convention
    – have Hockey say that Sri Lanka are succefully turning back boats, so why cant we?

    Boats with No Abbott – very clever COS is Peta Credlin

  7. guytaur – Crikey media ratings show that our Swannies were a bit hit on telly yesterday – deservedly so, I say 🙂

    [Around 1.1 million watched the Sydney versus West Coast AFL game on Seven and Pay TV: 532,000 watched on Seven’s main channels (211,000 in Melbourne and 184,000 in Perth) and just 102,000 watched on 7mate (48,000 in Sydney). 350,000 watched the game on Fox Footy on Pay TV.]

  8. sprocket_

    [Boats with No Abbott – very clever COS is Peta Credlin]
    Does Pyne today promising a double dissolution fit into the game plan ?

  9. @77 – david – given Security and Border Protection ain’t their strong point I can’t see even a Tampa/11Sep01 event helping them – they’d balls that up like everything elese so far.

  10. [Heffron (NSW) by-election on 25 August.

    Not the most important by-election in Oz electoral history]

    Means I’ve got to get off my clacker and vote. I’ll give Mayor Adam West lookalike and mayor for life Ron Hoenig a go. Good to see Fat Bazza has squibbed it. You’d think with his record majority and cutting the fragrant KKK’s majority down to a reachable target, and with the media still solidly in his corner, he’d have a go. Not made of very stern stuff, our Baz…

  11. [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke
    Shadow Customs Minister Michael Keenan says there’s no reason why the Australian Navy can’t resume turning boats back, cites Sri Lanka
    ]

    Seems pretty coordinated. Morrsion, Hockey and Keenan all out on the Stop the Boats roadshow.

  12. @81 – and of course the Lay Party can make whatever motions it wants – it is not the Parliamentary Party which makes policy and takes it to the election – same as the ALP.

  14. [have Hockey say that Sri Lanka are succefully turning back boats, so why cant we?]

    Sprocket_ no only Hockey but also Michael Keegan so the comment must be on the Lib Cheat Sheet for today.

  15. I’m impressed that poll shows the electorate has enough nous to realise Abbott won’t be able to dump the carbon tax.

    But it begs the question of why they would then vote for him, based on the carbon tax issue? If they don’t see him removing it then it largely neutralises it as a serious issue, and other factors become more important in determining votes. Like IR.

    Has Abbott effectively scored an own goal on this issue?

  18. Interesting comparison to Sri Lanka re ‘turning the boats back. ”

    Sri Lanka is stopping the boats leaving Sri Lanka not turning boats back to another country.

    Ah well, I am sure the MSM will pick that up !

  19. [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke
    Shadow Customs Minister Michael Keenan says there’s no reason why the Australian Navy can’t resume turning boats back, cites Sri Lanka ]
    From these two clips I expect the Sri Lankan navy treats the fleeing Tamils with the utmost respect when turning back the boats 🙁

    [Wednesday, June 20, 2012 Nagapattinam: Nine fishermen of a fishing hamlet in this district have reportedly been abducted by Sri Lankan Navy off Kodiakarai coast in Indian waters. ]
    [April 30, 2012
    ….the Centre to file a case against Sri Lankan government in the International Criminal Court of Justice to get compensation for families of Tamil Nadu fishermen killed and injured allegedly by the island nation’s navy.

    Speaking to reporters here, Party President Dr MH Jawahirullah, said more than 500 fishermen from the state had been killed and more than 3000 injured in attacks over a period of time. ]

  20. Just thinking about how quiet Abbott has been over weekend.

    Is he by any chance in Afghanistan on his way o/s or hasn’t he left Oz as yet?

  21. compact crank

    shows the coalition supporters are worried with abbott

    they need to keep believing the fairytale polls

  22. @104 – Yes, William – I am bemused by that.

    I think what I said was poorly worded.

    The Essential Research organisation is clearly of a leftist bent – although their polling methodology is very good and now appears perhaps slightly biased to the Coalition in recent times.

    I may be wrong but there was a period from inception that I recall it appeared to favour the ALP by a point or so – maybe they’ve over corrected.

  24. @108 – Abbott has already said that if the Senate blocks moves against the CO2 Tax then a DD was the only option – Pyne is only restating what has already been said.

    I bet the ALP wishes Rudd had the balls to do that on the ETS way back when.

  25. Dio
    In all your reading about the American Civil War, what is the thing that most surprised you when you read it?

  26. Its good to remind william whts happe i g in the uk

    And all here

    Just me

    , hope so, not to many balls left in the paddock to kick
    Next one media rules

  28. @118 – maybe that’s because it aint that different to a RAN vessel piquetting a SIEV until an Indon Navy/Police boat arrives to escort it back to Indonesia.

  30. Compact Crank

    [– Pyne is only restating what has already been said.]
    Yes but that was before it was introduced when he was in full scare mode . Now that it is introduced and it is more and more obvious zero of his dire predictions will come true the promise of a DD does not look so compelling. Indeed it could become a negative with the electorate. All that money and blech of another election over something people don’t notice/care about any more. Pyne’s little announcement makes it harder for the let it fade away and forget it option to be left open.

  31. @115 – given the political dissconnection of most voters, I am unsuprised that they yet are aware of Abbott’s commitment to scrap the tax even using a DD if necessary. However, I have no doubt that come Election’13 most will know.

  32. Hoenig could be a fun addition judging on this from Botany Bay Council website.

    [Mayor’s Blog

    Cr Hoenig will always have something to say and his comments can often be seen on his blog at http://www.ronhoenig.net, or on Facebook or Twitter @Ron_Hoenig.]

    Blog link is busted, however.

  33. I would suggest that the statement by Pyne today re a DD has more to do with concern within the libs that no one believes Abbott when he cries out from the mountain top that he will repeal the legislation.

    Add the DD call from Pyne to the ” boats , boats boats ” again today from the libs. Can’t be having any focus on real policy issues like IR can we ?

  34. William

    Given that so many people are upset with the polls as they currently stand or question the accuracy of the polls or question the meaningfullness of the polls or get upset at the discussion about the polls and their ramifications, will you not consider banning discussions of polls on this poll-discussion website?

  35. Essential indeed skewed to Labor in its early days, which appeared to be due to methodological issues which they ironed out after gaining a bit of experience (for one thing, I recall Possum rumbled them for underweighting the top age cohort). I think the moral of the story is that a political inclination need not necessarily disqualify one from being professional and objective.

  39. CC @128,

    So what you are saying is lib policy is for a Australian patrol boat to stop the boat, call Indonesia and wait with the boat until Indonesia comes to get it ?

    How does that fit in with Abbott saying the boats will be turned back only “when safe ” and fuel will be drained from the AS boats leaving them just enough to return to Indonesia ?

    I have yet to see any mention in lib policy of waiting with a boat until the Indo navy arrives.

    Plase point me to the relevant policy statement if you don’t mind. I must have missed it.

    Cheers.

  40. @130 – poroti – you underestimate the white hot anger in the community over the broken promise and the fatc that the CO2 Tax is economically, environemtnally and politically ineffective on both a national and global scale.

    Once the ALP is reduced to a flayed rump in the HOR, I doubt that they will have the courage of their convictions (as suggested by Combet) to oppose the scrapping of the tax as they would see jsut how damaging it would be to them to lose more seats in the Senate in a DD election than they already will have lost. I give the ALP some credit for not being that stupid.

  41. People get sort of resigned to things after a while. The same will apply to pricing carbon. But not before they belt the PM for implementing it. That’s the price of being progressive.

  42. The owner of Sydney Skip Bins might be angry at The Daily Telegraph and Steve Lewis for telling his customers that his prices have risen a lot.

    [Larger bins, holding five cubic metres, have risen from $530 to hire to as much as $730.]

    From http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/dumped-with-big-carbon-tax-hike/story-e6freuy9-1226426663448

    The Sydney Skip Bins website this afternoon quotes prices for five cubic metre bins:

    [5 MTR3
    $549 GENERAL
    MIXED WASTE

    $579 BUILDERS
    MIXED WASTE LIGHT

    $654 BUILDERS
    MIXED WASTE
    HEAVY

    $499 CONCRETE
    & BRICKS
    RECYCLE

    $499 CLEAN
    SOIL
    RECYCLE]

    http://sydneyskipbins.com.au/

    The prices on the website are nowhere near the $730 quoted in the article. How many customers has the Telegraph article cost him? Rubbish removal is a competitive business (check the yellow pages).

    The skip bin owner might be regretting going near a Murdoch publication and may now be feeling that he has been “used”. Brumby’s Bakery comes to mind.

  43. The skewing of polls is coming from media coverage influencing people’s outlook and the fact that a lot of people are just not polled. This is due to the fact that there are more and more households not showing up on Landline directories. Essential is one group aware of this and has tried to adjust its polling methods to suit. However as my say has pointed out this has its problems too. So if we look at a poll of poll approach over a few months then we start to get an idea of how the electorate is thinking when not engaged with politics. The electorate will not change its views dramatically unless something dramatic happens until close to the election. We have seen this before and it would be a surprise if this pattern was to change.

  46. Compact Creek

    The anger has nothing to do with the policy (the reaction to the carbon price is more confusion and uncertainty, not anger). The anger is squarely directed at the PM

  48. @136 – that is a stupid commentof the weapons grade level given this is a psephologically focussed site called Poll Bludger.

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