The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred, their lead now at 57-43, with both major parties steady on the primary vote (49% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor) and the Greens down one to 10%. The poll also includes Essential’s monthly leader approval ratings, which have Tony Abbott gaining three points on approval to 35% and down one on disapproval to 53%, with Julia Gillard steady on approval at 32% and up two on disapproval to 58%. Abbott has also nudged ahead on preferred prime minister, gaining from 37-37 to 38-37.
Further questions find broad hostility to the Greens, whose “performance in federal parliament” is rated as good by 17% and poor by 47%, with 53% rating their policies “too extreme” and 26% “representing the views of many voters”. There are two questions on Julian Assange which seem to suggest sympathy for him has declined since March: 28% now believe the support he has received from the government has been appropriate, compared with 22% in March, while those who think otherwise (though this could potentially include those who think it has provided too much support) is down from 36% to 33%.
Preselection stuff:
• The WA Liberals have confirmed the preselection of Christian Porter in Pearce, ahead of 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth and local party members Rod Henderson and Bill Crabtree. Gary Adshead of The West Australian reports the winning margin was 39 to 15, which I take to refer to Porter’s and Butterworth’s totals in the first and final round. UPDATE: The Australian reports Porter and Butterworth were the only two candidates, another two who had been mentioned having withdrawn.
• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports a field of nine candidates has nominated for the LNP preselection for Fisher on July 29: “Stephen Ainscough, Mr Brough, Richard Bruinsma, James McGrath, Graeme Mickelberg, Alan Nielsen, Daniel Purdie, Peta Simpson and Andrew Wallace”.
• The Nationals have preselected Matthew Fraser, owner of two Hungry Jacks stores in the Tweed Heads are, as their candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond. Fraser won a preselection vote over Alan Hunter, a Myocum beef farmer and the candidate in 2010, Scott Cooper, a university lecturer, and John McMahon, a Tweed Heads newsagency owner.
• The Cessnock Advertiser reports the Nationals have preselected Michael Johnsen, Scone businessman and former mayor of Upper Hunter, to run against Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter (margin 12.5%). Johnsen also ran in the seat in 1996 and 2010.
• Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports five union leaders have publicly endorsed Stephen Jones, Labor’s member for Throsby, as Right forces led by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay marshall forces for a preselection challenge. The unions concerned include the Right faction Australian Workers Union, together with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, Australian Services Union, Maritime Union of Australia and United Services Union.
@Compact Crack 144/145.
So you play with people’s lives then? You say it’s to the dance of ALP’s tune on policy debate, but then it was also the Coalition party rejected Oakshott’s Bill on AS Policy.
Why won’t any of our informed members of the press gallery ask the LNP spokespeople about the logistics of a DD; that in all likelihood could not happen until at least towards the middle of 2014.
Should the LNP win in 2013 say in Sept or October, there is only likely to be 2 weeks of sittings until Feb/Mar 2014; giving very little time for a bill to be rejected twice by the Senate in a 3 month period. The Senate will be hostile so putting off the first vote until Mar 2014 shouldn’t be too difficult. That leaves the second rejection should things go smoothly for the LNP around June 2014, just before the new Senate takes effect.
So far not one of our esteemed and highly politically aware media seems to have mentioned this. All they do is take the LNP at face value.
@latikambourke: Former Treasury Sec Ken Henry says Australian policymakers are so afraid of creating ‘losers’ when enacting tax reform they overcompensate”
Good point citizen.
Why on Earth would the skip dude’s potential customers ring him for a quote now that the Tele has spilled the beans on his horrific price rises.
They’d call his competition to see if they can get a better deal first, I would have thought.
There’s one businessman who has just shot himself in the foot.
The fool.
@151 – zoidy – what are yo on about? Doyley criticised the Coalition for continuing to put out their messages about the CO2 Tax and Border Protection instead of jumping to engage withthe ALP on IR jsut because the ALP wants to move on to that debate.
As I said – whomade the ALP God? The Coalition are free to put out policy when and if they want – not when and if the ALP want it. What next – the ALP will use media laws to dictate what policy matters are debated when?
@preciouspress: In the Australian editorial & articles aplenty to inveigh against media regulation whilst on its every page you can see the case for.
Hugh, they don’t ask because they probably don’t understand the logistics of a DD themselves.
Most of them are thick. Jus look at El Slacko’s efforts.
compact crank
White hot because shocker jockers, the LOTO et al have been promising armageddon should we have a price on carbon. Maintaining the rage is a little hard to keep up if nothing happens. See GST rage 😉
CC @145,
Yes I do.
It is just the coalition do not have a real workable policy on either of them.
They refuse to talk about or debate their sham CC policy and they refuse to really debate their AS policy.
No one supports their CC policy, not one economist, not one recognized scientific organization.
Their AS policy has been refuted by Immigration, Defence and Foreign Affairs.
Perhaps they do have a real IR policy ? Abbott reckons he is ready to govern. Bring out the real coalition IR policy for debate.
Tick, tick, tick.
[They’d call his competition to see if they can get a better deal first, I would have thought.]
smithe – that’s a good point. Somebody should ring the Skip bloke and let him know that the Daily Terror hasn’t done him a favour. His competitors will be longing to undercut him.
@152 – hugh – Parliamentary sittings can be changed – why would Abbott allow himslef to be locked into the current progrma if it didn’t suit him? Recall Parliament as soon as possible and kick of th the DD coutn down ASAP if required – that’s of the ALP are dumb enough to oppose it.
Computers to take over from reporters ?
Murdoch would love it –
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/reporter-call-him-al-algorithm-190751150.html
hugh moran
Think it would be more like 2015 for DD, something about when half senate election senators in 2013 take their seats.
Why the hell is Stephen Jones facing a pre-selection challenge? He is one of the stand out back bench Labor MPs of the current parliament!!!!
@CC/155
And so should you, this is no time to playing goody too shoes and liking that Coalition are the good guys.
And yes, Doyley right in that regard, The Coalition continued to play the political game.
They are not god, but they are in a minority government.
So I don’t know where you been getting this information about ALP being GOD.
@JuliaGillard: If you could Hang Out with the PM what would you ask her? http://t.co/lbF5rNrU #PMHangOut TeamJG
@159 – you keep on believing that – see you the day after the next election. I suspect I know who will be happier.
@Balwyn_Battler: @latikambourke my FIL fled Russia during WW2 via several countries. No direct boat to Aus. @ScottMorrisonMP rewriting history.
@162 – you misrepresent – computers aren’t taking over – a human element is still required – no different to most other industries these days.
You wouldn’t expect us to still be handwriting letters and posting them to each other by snail mail, would you?
Compact mate, you can’t keep hiding your policies and plans forever.
Sooner or later you’re going to have to tell the people all about your IR plans if you want to claim any sort of mandate for implementing them, should your lot win Government.
Failing to do so just blows any claimed mandate out of the water and gives Labor and the Greens all the justification they need to block you in the Senate.
So lets have no more of this ‘who made the ALP God’ guff.
[I think the moral of the story is that a political inclination need not necessarily disqualify one from being professional and objective.]
Agreed in the context of the earlier coment regarding Essential being “left” biased.
[guytaur
Posted Monday, July 16, 2012 at 4:08 pm | Permalink
@JuliaGillard: If you could Hang Out with the PM what would you ask her? http://t.co/lbF5rNrU #PMHangOut TeamJG]
Who writes your speeches and why are they so terrible?
One of the heart kids babies born around the same time as our grandson
is very very ill. Our daughter has become close to the family
Nothing in life matters really other than ones loved o es.
Any chritians reading this may say a prayer, for him and his family
Our grandson has a different heart problem all babies are special
Sigh
At the HSU hearing today Bronnie Bishop showcased Liberal womanhood at its finest!
There is a sure and steady growing perception in Qld that the LNP’s ideological agenda will harm the well being of many people in this state.
I predict a swing back to ALP here in the early part of next year.
Each cut to jobs and services (eg, health, infrastructure, indigenous) affects real people. Each person knows 5 others, who know 10 others etc etc.
@165 – Zoidy
[The Coalition continued to play the political game]
WTF – They are a political party – everything is political. Getting out of bed or not inthe morning is a political act. Not “playing politics” by having both sides of th House at Military Funerals is political.
The Coaltion are the good guys – they are the ones who want all Australians to be wealthy, they support freedom everywhere – unliekthe ALP and Greens who are class war warriors who think freedom is not a high priority.
PM Calls libs scammers.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/14245334/oppn-boat-policy-exposed-as-a-sham-pm/
@168 – and I bet that person’s FIL from Russia came on a ship from a DP camp somewhere in Europe with identity papers and permission from the Australian Government.
[@152 – hugh – Parliamentary sittings can be changed – why would Abbott allow himslef to be locked into the current progrma if it didn’t suit him? Recall Parliament as soon as possible and kick of th the DD coutn down ASAP if required – that’s of the ALP are dumb enough to oppose it.]
The real problem is that the Senate is sure to send any bill to shut down the ETS to all manner of committees. A legislative change of that magnitude raises a heap of economic, environmental, budgetary and even constitutional questions, which means the Senate will most likely send the bill to every committee you care to name. It may also set up a special committee, or even a joint committee to deal with all the issues.
It would be very fun to hear testimony day after day from all these committees all saying that repealing the ETS will be economically stupid and environmentally reckless.
I think it would take until late 2014 for any repeal bill to be rejected twice. And just think about that.
I think the Government could box Abbott into a corner even more NOW if it passes legislation to shift to an market price ETS by July 1, 2014, because that would just be even harder to unwind.
And think about it, if the government passes that policy, then it doesn’t change any budget numbers for the next financial year, it will only effect budget numbers for the financial year after that.
[poroti
Posted Monday, July 16, 2012 at 4:05 pm | Permalink
compact crank
White hot because shocker jockers, the LOTO et al have been promising armageddon should we have a price on carbon. Maintaining the rage is a little hard to keep up if nothing happens. See GST rag]
Yes, I’ve been wondering if right now Peta’s thinking of a new way of saying “Roll Back the Carbon Tax.” Worked a treat for Beazer and Crean at the time with the GST.
@168 – Mrs Crank’s Poppy escaped from a Concentration Camp in Occupied Czekolslovakia in WWII – got to England – joined the Free Czek Airforce – and then came to Australia after the War – so effing what?
BW
[In all your reading about the American Civil War, what is the thing that most surprised you when you read it?]
Either the role that luck played in Lincoln being the best president ever or how the North and South fought for so long with so many dead over slavery, when so many Northerners weren’t anti-slavery and so many Southerners weren’t pro-slavery.
There is a great story about a Confederate soldier who was captured early in the war. He wore a ragged homemade uniform, and like most other Southerners he didn’t own any slaves. When his Union captors asked him why he was fighting for the Confederacy, he replied, “I’m fighting because you’re down here” .
PS My 10 yo son just got home. He told me he got an early minute because he was the only one in the class who knew what a “psycho” was.
A chip off the old block. 👿
CC
BS. This is shown by the lack of free vote on Marriage Equality.
spur212 and shows on going to resume their debate on the polling ?
@170 Smithe – all in good time. Gillard has promised to run full term and beleiving the Dependents not to be suicidal maniacs I take her at her word on that point. There is plenty of time to put policies out to the public before the election.
Ashley Gillon actually trying hard to nail Keenan on some policy detail.
The Rabble have forgotten that the Senators elected at the 2013 election have to take their seats in the Senate before any DD trigger exists. This means the starting gun gets fired, 1st July 2014.
Senate Committee for a few months then voted down, wait another 3 months, its now 2015 before a DD can be called. Will a hypothetical Abbott govt pull the trigger with only a year to go before and election is due? I doubt it.
[spur212 and shows on going to resume their debate on the polling ?]
Was this a meta post?
The coalition are the good guys……
Maybe from where you stand CC…….not from where I do. For my money, they’re a rabble of ranting ratbags who have thrown their lot in behind a refugee from the National Civic Council for a shot at Government, one Tony Abbott.
THe guy has BA Santamaria as his inspirational guru FFS.
That will go down real well with the Big End of town.
Here is another Greens Party measure lifted straight from their policy document. I think it came under the heading of improvements to productivity… uh, no…wait it was under the IR heading.
[legislate for a mandatory minimum of five weeks paid annual leave for all employees.]
Hip Hip Hooray!!! But, wait, how much will this measure cost and who will pay?
I am sure that labor economists could do a better job. But let’s have a crack at a back of the envelope calculation.
There are around 11.5 million employees. One week each = a total of 11,500,000 weeks.
Divided by 52 weeks gives 221,000 annual fte equivalent.
Cost of 221,000 fte times average wage of $60,000, gives a total cost to the economy of around $13,000,000,000 per annum.
Over the forward estimates this would be about $52,000,000,000.
Who will pay? Well the taxpayer will pay for the share of all three tiers of government employees.
Small businesses, large businesses and farmers can simply add around 2% to their wages bill. These costs will be passed on where possible. Consumers will pay by way of COL increases.
Investors will note that this measure, along with dozens of others of Milne government measures, will increase their costs and risks and head o/s with their capital, if they can.
Happy to have labour market policy wonks have a go at the real costings…
CC @167,
I state again,
Not one respected economist or recognized scientific body supports the coalition CC policy.
Their AS policy has been refuted by Immigration,Defence and Foreign Affairs .
Abbott refuses to release any part of the coalition IR policy.
He states he is ready to govern, he bags the governments position on each of these issues yet backs away from any scrutiny of his policies.
Abbott states he is ready to govern at any time. Why be afraid to debate his policy then ?
Perhaps because in reality he has no real workable policy on any of those issues .
Asa lib supporter are you not interested in the policy of the party you support ?
BTW,
I asked a question of you earlier.
You now say that the AS policy of the coalition has the Australian Navy intercepting a AS boat, calling the Indonesian Navy and waiting with the AS boat until the Indonesian navy comes to collect them for return to Indonesia.
Can you refer me to where this is mentioned in coalition AS “policy”?
Cheers.
So, the LNP up in Banjoland are doing a fine One Nation imitation by wanting Abstudy trashed – very sad development
@183 – guytaur – you misrepresent freedom – unlike the ALP – any member of the Coalition can cross the floor at anytime – they don’t need a Conscience vote to avoid being thrown out of the party.
With Freedom comes responsibility and acceptance of consequences for ones actions or lack of action.
Dio
Ah. I suggest that decades of preparation by way of careless talk and lies predisposed people to war as a solution and that the trigger was partly ideological but party just an emotional need for a mass release by way of blood letting.
Have your read Confederates in the Attic? That book is the most suprising thing I have read about the Civil War. It also prepped me for genesis the Tea Party.
@delimiterau: Nationals Leader grossly inaccurate on NBN: http://t.co/LmSz8Wji
BW
While I don’t disagree with your comment, technically the wages bill will be the same but you’ll get 2% less work done for it each year. Some employees get 5 weeks already. I’m pretty sure shift workers like nurses do.
Does this look like a dork or what?
[So, the LNP up in Banjoland are doing a fine One Nation imitation by wanting Abstudy trashed – very sad development]
Aye, but increasingly, many in SE Qld don’t like the sound of banjos.
Has anyone pointed out that Sri Lanka is towing back boats from its own waters to its own ports?
I’d have thought that was an important point.
[all in good time]
Ah yes, the standard mealy-mouthed Tory response to a question on policy.
Tell me CC, are your lot hoping to get Hogwarts or similar to “audit” your costings again like last time?
As I recall, that didn’t work out so well for you or the firm concerned. Two of their principals were done over for professional conduct breaches as a result of that little fiasco. I guess it will turn on whether Robb and Hockey have learned what an “audit” is yet. And on whether you can find a firm of suckers willing to throw themselves on a professional conduct sword just to boost your Party’s prospects.
Good lick with the mate.