Essential Research: 57-43 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred, their lead now at 57-43, with both major parties steady on the primary vote (49% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor) and the Greens down one to 10%. The poll also includes Essential’s monthly leader approval ratings, which have Tony Abbott gaining three points on approval to 35% and down one on disapproval to 53%, with Julia Gillard steady on approval at 32% and up two on disapproval to 58%. Abbott has also nudged ahead on preferred prime minister, gaining from 37-37 to 38-37.

Further questions find broad hostility to the Greens, whose “performance in federal parliament” is rated as good by 17% and poor by 47%, with 53% rating their policies “too extreme” and 26% “representing the views of many voters”. There are two questions on Julian Assange which seem to suggest sympathy for him has declined since March: 28% now believe the support he has received from the government has been appropriate, compared with 22% in March, while those who think otherwise (though this could potentially include those who think it has provided too much support) is down from 36% to 33%.

Preselection stuff:

• The WA Liberals have confirmed the preselection of Christian Porter in Pearce, ahead of 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth and local party members Rod Henderson and Bill Crabtree. Gary Adshead of The West Australian reports the winning margin was 39 to 15, which I take to refer to Porter’s and Butterworth’s totals in the first and final round. UPDATE: The Australian reports Porter and Butterworth were the only two candidates, another two who had been mentioned having withdrawn.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports a field of nine candidates has nominated for the LNP preselection for Fisher on July 29: “Stephen Ainscough, Mr Brough, Richard Bruinsma, James McGrath, Graeme Mickelberg, Alan Nielsen, Daniel Purdie, Peta Simpson and Andrew Wallace”.

• The Nationals have preselected Matthew Fraser, owner of two Hungry Jacks stores in the Tweed Heads are, as their candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond. Fraser won a preselection vote over Alan Hunter, a Myocum beef farmer and the candidate in 2010, Scott Cooper, a university lecturer, and John McMahon, a Tweed Heads newsagency owner.

• The Cessnock Advertiser reports the Nationals have preselected Michael Johnsen, Scone businessman and former mayor of Upper Hunter, to run against Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter (margin 12.5%). Johnsen also ran in the seat in 1996 and 2010.

Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports five union leaders have publicly endorsed Stephen Jones, Labor’s member for Throsby, as Right forces led by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay marshall forces for a preselection challenge. The unions concerned include the Right faction Australian Workers Union, together with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, Australian Services Union, Maritime Union of Australia and United Services Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,483 comments on “Essential Research: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. From the previous thread.
    Bronnie Bishop is being thoroughly obnoxious at the current hearing on HSU, etc. There is another word I could use, but it woul offend some female dogs.

  2. From the previous thread

    It’s pretty obvious what happens from here:

    Time goes on, polls remain where they are, MP’s panic, Rudd gets drafted, ALP win

    Rudd’s trust rating will go through the roof the longer Gillard remains PM and Abbott remains opposition leader

  3. Puff, the Magic Dragon + lizzie

    [The losers get the drop! Of course if they don’t let go of the rope, they could pull the winners down with them.]

    Puff: That’s the “cunning plan” lizzie :Current indications are that niether side knows when to let go so complete success is assured 🙂

  4. what im struggling a bit wiht he essentials is

    if the coaliton prim is 49

    labor 31
    greens 10
    others 9

    i cant see the coaliton getting majority of the 9% other percentage so where does the 57% come from

  5. lizzie
    Posted Monday, July 16, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink


    Choosing the right moment to let go is always most important.

  6. Flipper Boy

    I’m still waiting for an answer.

    [Which US president as nominated by the Republicans as their candidate without him nominating or being on the ballot and with him refusing to accept the nomination during the delegate conference?]

  7. MB

    Around 2% of the Greens vote goes to to coalition ahead of the ALP.

    Most of the other % is made up of FF and rural indies.

  8. I have previous said the Refugee Convention is outdated and that we seriously need a regional amendment (just like Africa and South America have developed).

  9. From the previous thread…

    shellbell @ 2138

    Mr Nassios is a lawyer. Makes him immediately credible!

    You left out the irony emoticon.

  10. No worries – Essential just printed the numbers back to front :devil:

    [Bronnie Bishop is being thoroughly obnoxious at the current hearing on HSU, etc. There is another word I could use, but it woul offend some female dogs.]

    BK – the woman is beyond the pale. Bishop was so sickly with Nassios but immediately the AEC (public servants) appear she turns into a harradine. She demands respect for herself and Melham was right to pull her into line. Loved his comment wtte that she shows no respect for others.

    The bee in her bonnet is the money given to Thomson to run his campaign in 2007. I’m sure she wouldn’t like some of the LNP campaigns opened up to real scrutiny.

  11. Mequire they do have , i suppose its the polling company 100 th , i think thats what william posted, but, is that the polling company that sends the email to those enrolled
    Its rather confusing

    But i seem to get it about every three weeks or so, ive worked our its about wed/thurs.
    Been dissapointec a couple of times gone through a whole set of questions
    About retail no politics , lol
    But i still comPleted it, wised up now just delete, i figure my one little answer may be make no difference . 20 min. Of boring retail questions no thanks
    Not my cup of tea at all

    Who knows maquire if there liberals or what , could be swingers lol some labor
    my thoughts are and thats just me wondering
    Not that many labor people, would be that interrested, unless retired and its a hobby.
    We are mainly workers. Who care stuff all about retail , i think
    Could be wrong ,
    But join get polled, done my bit , its very time consuming. , but some may fi d it fun

  12. [George Newhouse ‏@GeorgeNewhouse

    If you know anyone that wants to work for Lt Col Dan Mori as a legal assistant/paralegal/graduate solicitor please see ]

    victoria – what a job! Wld give my eye teeth to work with him.

  13. NRL player charged with murder

    I can see the AFL ads in Western Sydney now.

    [Your son can safely play AFL and not end up a murderer]

  14. MB it’s in the rounding. But basically the Coalition is given 60% of the Others and 20% of the Greens but in 2PP fractions get added together.

    In real terms there is virtually no difference from last week other than rounding changing the 2PP by 1%.

    We seem to be pretty well locked in with Labor around 30/31%, Coalition 47/49% and 2PP 56/44 or thereabouts.

    When it’s this dire a few fractions either way aren’t that critical.

  15. davidwh @ 21
    Am I wrong or are your comments becoming more sympathetic to Labor?

    Is CanJoh getting through to you?

    Or has your good mum disciplined you?

  16. I think poor old Bob Ellis ran against Bronnie once didn’t he?

    He lost, of course, but reckons it was worth the candle just to annoy her. He also coined some rather colourful descriptions of Our Bronnie. Unfortunately most of them are not repeatable here.

  17. smithe @ 23

    I think poor old Bob Ellis ran against Bronnie once didn’t he?

    He lost, of course, but reckons it was worth the candle just to annoy her. He also coined some rather colourful descriptions of Our Bronnie. Unfortunately most of them are not repeatable here.

    He did indeed. How could anyone ever forget.
    What really sticks in my mind is his description of her as “Force without intellect”. 😀

  18. adam abdool @ 24

    The behaviour of BB is absoluety shocking and appaling.

    What’s Bushfire Bill been up to now? Not too scandalous I hope. 😛

  19. bemused I haven’t lost faith in QLD yet but I am concerned federally with Abbott about to become our next PM and Labor basically thinks things are going to magically change somehow. Perhaps they have Mandrake on their re-elelection team.

    Regarding my mum she always tries and despite my failings seems to still love me.

  20. Uniform swing and these seats are history

    [1. Corangamite (VIC) ALP 0.3%
    2. Deakin (VIC) ALP 0.6%
    3. Greenway (NSW) ALP 0.9%
    4. Robertson (NSW) ALP 1.0%
    5. Lindsay (NSW) ALP 1.1%
    6. Moreton (QLD) ALP 1.1%
    7. Banks (NSW) ALP 1.5%
    8. La Trobe (VIC) ALP 1.7%
    9. Petrie (QLD) ALP 2.5%
    10. Reid (NSW) ALP 2.7%
    11. Lilley (QLD) ALP 3.2%
    12. Brand (WA) ALP 3.3%
    13. Capricornia (QLD) ALP 3.7%
    14. Lingiari (NT) ALP 3.7%
    15. Page (NSW) ALP 4.2%
    16. Eden-Monaro (NSW) ALP 4.2%
    17. Blair (QLD) ALP 4.2%
    18. Parramatta (NSW) ALP 4.4%
    19. Dobell (NSW) ALP 5.1%
    20. Kingsford Smith (NSW) ALP 5.2%
    21. Rankin (QLD) ALP 5.4%
    22. Fremantle (WA) ALP 5.7%
    23. Chisholm (VIC) ALP 5.8%
    24. Oxley (QLD) ALP 5.8%
    25. Perth (WA) ALP 5.9% ]

    you can probably drop the two WA ones off the list and add two or three SA, Tas or NSW seats.

  21. Terrible Essential. The polls seem stubbornly locked on the wrong side of 55/45 at ther moment. Flatlining or trending away.

    Not good.

  22. This was last week but i love the wording


  23. [What really sticks in my mind is his description of her as “Force without intellect]

    bemused – hasn’t been any change from what I can see. I remember that Ellis really did get up her nose and it was fun at the time.

  24. [And the beauty of the Essential Poll is that it is self-selectingly biased towards the ALP.]

    CC, how so? I have not heard that put before. I am interested to know why you think that.

  25. And abbott, lijens us to nz

  26. Maybe Labor should jump on Morrision’s comments today and agree the convention is out of date and should therefore not apply – in it’s place they should use a more recent agreement such as say The Bali Protocol 🙂

    Not that I think they should do either but just saying

  27. Whereas Whiney Piney spends his time in QT yapping away at the Government, Bronnie is the ‘expert’ (such as they have one) on Parliamentary practise and procedure and always drags herself up to the dispatch box, clutching her well-worn copy of Standing Orders whenever Piney or someone is carded.

    It’s as reliable as the tides.

    She usually gets about three words out before being told to siddown and shaddup by the Speaker. This is also about as reliable and regular as the tides, but enormously entertaining nevertheless.

    The look of miffed disappointment is priceless.

    I’ve never seen her take a trick.

  28. CC

    Becuase the 2010 election was held during peak mining tax angst. If anything the further swing away is much more muted there (as also evidenced by closer state polling)

    Yes crank tne trend is your friend
    If you read morgan

  30. @35 – Essential Media Communications is biased towards the left of politics – it includes on its’ home page the statement “We are committed to securing social and environmental change that makes Australia a better place. ”

    They are campaign orientated. They are not just a polling company.

  31. Well, that is yet another bad poll for the cente left and a good poll for the reactionaries.

    Greens Party delenda est.

  32. I see the usual suspects have arrived for a bit of a gloat.

    Enjoy it while you can fellas.

    Hewson thought he was home and hosed too.

  33. Its the bits and pieces above that interest me , also wa , that has increased re labor,

    Gary is here now and then hes a great leveler,
    Miss his daily wise words

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