Seat of the week: Lindsay

I’m a day behind schedule with Seat of the Week, owing to the extra work required to give due attention to the seat which matters more than any other. I speak of course of Lindsay, the western Sydney electorate which first emerged as a favoured barometer of national opinion after Labor’s surprise defeat off a double-digit swing in 1996. Its place in electoral folklore was cemented by the 2010 election, when Labor’s apparent obsession with it caused the party’s then national secretary, Karl Bitar, to demand that every proposed policy pass a “Lindsay test”. This was seen to have inspired the shift in prime ministerial rhetoric from Kevin Rudd’s “big Australia” to Julia Gillard’s “sustainable Australia”, and a tougher line on asylum seekers which was signalled in the first days of Gillard’s prime ministership through a photo opportunity with member David Bradbury aboard a warship off Darwin.

Lindsay is based around Penrith 50 kilometres to the west of central Sydney, from which it extends into conservative semi-rural territory to the north (Castlereagh and Llandilo) and south (Mulgoa and Orchard Hills). Labor had a 12.3% notional margin when the seat was created at the 1984 election, and its inaugural member Ross Free held it for margins of around 10% throughout the Hawke-Keating years, having previously been member for Macquarie from 1980. Free was most unpleasantly surprised to find himself turfed out by an 11.9% swing to Liberal candidate Jackie Kelly at the 1996 election, but was able to secure a re-match because Kelly, who had not expected to win, had failed to get her affairs in order before nominating (she was still serving as an RAAF officer, an “office for profit under the Crown”). Voters dragged back to the polls on a technicality rewarded Free with a further 6.8% drop in the primary vote, translating into a further 5.0% swing to the Liberals on two-party preferred.

The combined 16.9% swing to the Liberals meant the electorate’s demographic profile came to be seen as typifying John Howard’s constituency: high numbers of skilled workers on good incomes, low levels of tertiary education and a distinctly less multicultural flavour than suburbs closer to the city. This view was solidified by Kelly’s persistent electoral success despite the area remaining loyal to Labor at state level. The swing to Labor in 1998 was just 0.3% compared with the 1996 election result, producing one of a number of decisive marginal seat outcomes which secured the return of the Howard government from a minority of the two-party vote. This confirmed Kelly’s status as a prime ministerial favourite, helping her win promotion for a time to a junior ministerial position thought by many to have been beyond her competence. Kelly nonetheless continued to perform well electorally, picking up a 2.4% swing in 2001 and nearly holding even in 2004. To John Howard’s dismay, Kelly opted to retire at the 2007 election, at which the seat was further endangered by a redistribution which cut the Liberal margin from 5.3% to 2.9%. Any remaining Liberal hopes, both for Lindsay and the election as a whole, were demolished in the final days of the campaign when the husbands of Kelly and her successor candidate Karen Chijoff were among those caught distributing pamphlets purporting to be from Muslim extremists, in which Labor was praised for its support of the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.

There followed a resounding 9.7% swing to Labor candidate David Bradbury, a Blake Dawson Waldron lawyer and former Penrith mayor who had run unsuccessfully in 2001 and 2004. There were reports in 2009, denied by Bradbury, that he was not of a mind to run in Lindsay for a fourth time, as he was concerned at the impact of the state government’s unpopularity and hopeful the departure of Roger Price might provide a safer berth for him in Chifley. Labor’s concerns were powerfully reinforced by a devastating 25.7% swing in a by-election for the state seat of Penrith on 19 June 2010, which preceded Kevin Rudd’s demise as Prime Minister by five days. The interruption of the by-election resulted in what seemed an inordinately long delay in the Liberals choosing a candidate, before marketing executive Fiona Scott was finally given the nod less than a week before the election date was announced. In the event the Liberals picked up a swing of 5.2% which only slightly exceeded the 4.8% statewide swing, falling 1.1% short of what was required. The post-election review conducted for the Liberal Party by Peter Reith identified the delay as a failing of the party’s campaign, and recommended the party’s federal executive be given a “last resort” power to ensure the selection of candidates for important seats in good time.

David Bradbury has twice won promotion since his re-election, first to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer immediately after the election, and then to Assistant Treasurer and Minister Assisting for Deregulation in March 2012 after Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge. The latter promotion was achieved at the expense of NSW Right colleague Robert McClelland, who was dumped from the ministry after publicly backing Rudd. Bradbury will again be opposed at the next election by Fiona Scott, who won a March 2012 preselection vote against Hills Shire councillor Robyn Preston by 62 votes to 42. It had been reported the previous September that Tony Abbott had approached Jackie Kelly with a view to making a comeback, but she was unequivocal in professing herself uninterested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,296 comments on “Seat of the week: Lindsay”

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  2. And I might add, wouldn’t what I hypothesised an ALP minister using on the LNP pass your test of apparent “real change” and “achieving something” even if that were only to break the deadlock, clear away an obstacle and instantiate their preferred policy on a timeline quicker than is now likely?

  3. REX

    Wish we could find a conversation re maiden , from last week posted here, was it on agenda
    Where she mentioned wtte un likley return of rud, well at this point 🙂 🙂 🙂
    it was a discussion
    With another journalist OF course:-) 🙂 who else.
    May of been coory
    It would be woth finding for a tweet,
    Do agenda keep up their texts from interviews

  5. Weasel words from Carr on Assange. Why?
    Either Australia opposes extradition to countries with the death penalty or it does not.
    No firm statement like it has done in the past.

  7. [ 1. I suspect you are right that there is very little chance in the immediate future of the Greens being able to implement our policies. ]

    I should hope not. The last policy you helped implement just killed 90 innocent people.

  8. Listening to Background Briefing. Someone making sense on boats: no sense in blaming governments for deaths at sea.

  9. Ian

    You are lying. No Australian Party policy is responsible for deaths at sea. BTW the current policy is in place due to the law of the land as determined by the High Court.

  12. Well off now

    Hope tne gentleman in uk

    Is not up for discussion today

    Thousands of children die from hunger in tne world most days.

    Priorities please

  13. [Refugee Action Coalition spokesman Ian Rintoul says demands for an end to offshore processing and people smuggling laws will also be made at the rally.

    “The deaths at sea are a direct result of successive governments – both Labor and Liberal – adhering to policies of deterrence,” Mr Rintoul said in a statement on Saturday.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/14024448/protesters-to-demand-boat-disaster-probe/

    The man sounds unhinged. It’s this kind of hysterical over-reaction that turns people off your arguments.

  14. http://world.time.com/2012/06/23/turkey-vows-action-against-syria-for-downing-jet/

    [Turkey Vows Action Against Syria for Downing Jet
    By Associated Press | June 23, 2012

    (ANKARA, Turkey) — Turkey will take retaliatory steps against Syria for the downing of one of its military jets, President Abdullah Gul said Saturday, even as he suggested that the aircraft may have violated Syrian airspace.

    It was not clear if Gul was suggesting military retaliation, increased sanctions against Syria or other possible steps, including demands for an apology, and his aide would not comment on his words. But Faruk Celik, Turkey’s Labor and Social Security Minister, said Turkey would retaliate “either in the diplomatic field or give other types of response.”]

  15. Morning all

    Have hard copy of the Herald Sun. The Sunday magazine has front page of the PM today.

    Caption says

    Julia Gillard
    THE REAL WOMAN BEHIND THE PRIME MINISTER

    The story inside headed

    BEING JULIA.

    The Right hand page is full length picture of the PM sitting in an elegant chair next to a side table with vase of flowers. Could have been taken in the Lodge.

    Anyhow I will now read what appears to be a profile piece

  16. Fran

    I’m not sure I’m that keen on ethical purity over riding reality if ethical purity means looking on while people die.

    We don”t live in a perfect world, where everything proceeds logically, and reason and ethics eventually wins. Holding out for perfection thus does not mean you”re proved right in the long run (and I personally put a couple of hundred lives before my own gloating rights) – but it certainly guarantees you acheive nothing in the short term.

    Change involves small incremental steps more often than it does cataclysmic shifts.

    Thus – for me, and in the end, joining a particular party is a personal choice – I’d rather be able to point to a few positive changes than achieve nothing.

  22. [I should hope not. The last policy you helped implement just killed 90 innocent people.]

    Calls for facts and models not in evidence; requires unavailable counterfactuals; disregards salient data;

    #fail

  23. RT @MoodyRacing: Absolutely beautiful The Queen & our Queen #BlackCaviar http://pic.twitter.com/LZrehRR8

    I guess Moody will be invited to a few private chats with HM, and no one need ask about what. If BC gets sent to stud, what’s to bet horse-mad, horse-breeding-mad EiiR will be first in line.

  24. confessions

    It is more a personal puff piece re her relationship with Tim, Her extentend family, the demands of being PM Attitude re by those who comment in what she wears etc. Ends with her mantra that she wants to make a positive difference to the future, and not matter would a person was wearing or not.

  26. [Turnbull making clear Samantha Maiden made things up.]
    guytaur – where did he say that? I would have thought it more likely, if its not true, that another Lib MP (for whatever reason) made things up, as the story seamed to rely on Lib contacts. Could be complete rubbish of course, but the other option seems more likely.

  27. Leroy

    Cassidy said he got a tweet from Turnbull that Maiden contacted him and he gave no comment and certainly nothing on the story she wrote.

  29. [I’d rather be able to point to a few positive changes than achieve nothing.]

    I think most people feel this way. There’s a very small minority of people who love to feel all smug and superior while effectively being redundant. In the end these people don’t matter.

  31. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/sunday-magazine/being-julia-gillard-the-prime-minister-opens-up/story-e6frf039-1226406138677

    [Being Julia Gillard: The Prime Minister opens up
    Katherine Chatfield
    The Sunday Telegraph
    June 24, 2012 12:00AM

    THE lounge room at Kirribilli House is exactly as you might expect; plush armchairs, thick carpet, hues of cream and beige. But although the rooms appear formal at first glance, there are some distinct clues that the woman who lives here has her own way of doing things. ]
    It’s in the DT as well, although I don’t know if it’s just the digital copy. Probably is the hard copy though, as journo is a DT one https://twitter.com/KatChatfield

  33. Also in hard copy of the Herald Sun is double page on peope smugglers

    Heading

    MONEYBACK OFFERS BY DEALERS IN DEATH

    Article focusses in people smuggling.

    Bottom of article on right hand Page is heading

    BIPARTISAN SOLUTION URGED BUT ABBOTT DEFIANT

    Have to say that today’s Herald Sun is not at all anti govt. I am shocked I tell you

  35. victoria

    Fairfax reporters have to start being independent or they lost their charter of journalistic independence. That might have something to do with it.

  38. Guytaur

    Get it through your head. That boat would not have been at sea if there was no passengers. If there was no chance of them getting to Australia. If they hadn’t paid the people smugglers. If there was every chance the passengers would end up in Malaysia and have to wait their turn. There would be no reason to hire the boat. In short, if the Greens had supported the Govt. this would not have happened.

    The hard, harsh reality is that by avoiding difficult decisions, decisions that need to be based on the pragmatic realities of the world, in order to appease the fools and dilletantes in your membership, 90+ people are dead.

    This would not have happened if there was no incentive to hire the boat. The Greens, in concert with the LNP, ensured there was reason to.

    Brown, Milne, the truly repellant Hanson-Young, Barlow and yourself really need to understand this…..the road to hell is paved with good intensions.

    The 90+ bloated corpses on Christmas Island would agree…..if they were still alive.

  39. [Malcolm Turnbull ‏@TurnbullMalcolm
    #insiders Sam Maiden called me yday. Asked what I wd say in shadcab. I said I wd not discuss shadcab. She did not even put to me her “story”
    9:19 AM – 24 Jun 12

    36s samanthamaiden samanthamaiden ‏@samanthamaiden
    @TurnbullMalcolm So the Lib MPs who say you told them you are concerned and will raise with executive on Monday – did they imagine that?
    9:47 AM – 24 Jun 12]

  41. guytaur

    The Herald Sun is News Ltd. and the biggest selling paper in Melbourne. The Age does not even come close.

  42. Ian

    Get it through your head. Boats are at sea because Australia is a pull factor. We are a rich democracy. Until that changes boats will come.

  43. Leroy

    It is in the Herald Sun’s Sunday Magazine, which is a glossy lift out. Do you know if it is in the general part of the DT or do they have a Sunday magazine as well?

  44. What a mealy-mouthed apologist for sleazy Coalition practices to bring down Peter Slipper and the Gillard government Gerard Henderson is.

  45. Why is Sam Maiden verballing MT?

    [@TurnbullMalcolm So the Lib MPs who say you told them you are concerned and will raise with executive on Monday – did they imagine that?]

    What does this refer to?

  47. [Holding out for perfection thus does not mean you”re proved right in the long run]

    Overworked strawman. I’m not “holding out for perfection”. Perfection is unattainable, and approaching it is a task that requires patience and system and of course, something much less than perfection for most of the time. In this case, I’m holding out for an improvement, concretised in the abatement of human suffering that is driving people to get onto unseaworthy craft, whereas the mainstream parties are proposing an increase in suffering of those who survive getting onto unseaworthy craft in order to persaude those who have not yet done so to accept their longterm suffering and chances of return to the places from which they fled.

    [(and I personally put a couple of hundred lives before my own gloating rights) – but it certainly guarantees you acheive nothing in the short term.]

    Again, a strawman. This is not about “gloating rights” but about how you go about building a consensus around a rational, humane and maintainable policy.

    It accepts that one can only do what one has the resources to do. We are not the majority. The socially conservative parties are the majority. Until that changes there will continue to be a political standoff between two parties pushing variants of the same punitive, futile and ethically indefensible policy.

    You should bear in mind that people drowning in a desperate bid to improve their circumstances is not the only tragedy — just merely the tragedy that is most visible. The loss of life chances occurring every day in some squalid camp between the refugee source country and Australia is a tragedy on a much larger scale — and the one that informs the loss of life on the high seas.

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