Seat of the week: Lindsay

I’m a day behind schedule with Seat of the Week, owing to the extra work required to give due attention to the seat which matters more than any other. I speak of course of Lindsay, the western Sydney electorate which first emerged as a favoured barometer of national opinion after Labor’s surprise defeat off a double-digit swing in 1996. Its place in electoral folklore was cemented by the 2010 election, when Labor’s apparent obsession with it caused the party’s then national secretary, Karl Bitar, to demand that every proposed policy pass a “Lindsay test”. This was seen to have inspired the shift in prime ministerial rhetoric from Kevin Rudd’s “big Australia” to Julia Gillard’s “sustainable Australia”, and a tougher line on asylum seekers which was signalled in the first days of Gillard’s prime ministership through a photo opportunity with member David Bradbury aboard a warship off Darwin.

Lindsay is based around Penrith 50 kilometres to the west of central Sydney, from which it extends into conservative semi-rural territory to the north (Castlereagh and Llandilo) and south (Mulgoa and Orchard Hills). Labor had a 12.3% notional margin when the seat was created at the 1984 election, and its inaugural member Ross Free held it for margins of around 10% throughout the Hawke-Keating years, having previously been member for Macquarie from 1980. Free was most unpleasantly surprised to find himself turfed out by an 11.9% swing to Liberal candidate Jackie Kelly at the 1996 election, but was able to secure a re-match because Kelly, who had not expected to win, had failed to get her affairs in order before nominating (she was still serving as an RAAF officer, an “office for profit under the Crown”). Voters dragged back to the polls on a technicality rewarded Free with a further 6.8% drop in the primary vote, translating into a further 5.0% swing to the Liberals on two-party preferred.

The combined 16.9% swing to the Liberals meant the electorate’s demographic profile came to be seen as typifying John Howard’s constituency: high numbers of skilled workers on good incomes, low levels of tertiary education and a distinctly less multicultural flavour than suburbs closer to the city. This view was solidified by Kelly’s persistent electoral success despite the area remaining loyal to Labor at state level. The swing to Labor in 1998 was just 0.3% compared with the 1996 election result, producing one of a number of decisive marginal seat outcomes which secured the return of the Howard government from a minority of the two-party vote. This confirmed Kelly’s status as a prime ministerial favourite, helping her win promotion for a time to a junior ministerial position thought by many to have been beyond her competence. Kelly nonetheless continued to perform well electorally, picking up a 2.4% swing in 2001 and nearly holding even in 2004. To John Howard’s dismay, Kelly opted to retire at the 2007 election, at which the seat was further endangered by a redistribution which cut the Liberal margin from 5.3% to 2.9%. Any remaining Liberal hopes, both for Lindsay and the election as a whole, were demolished in the final days of the campaign when the husbands of Kelly and her successor candidate Karen Chijoff were among those caught distributing pamphlets purporting to be from Muslim extremists, in which Labor was praised for its support of the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.

There followed a resounding 9.7% swing to Labor candidate David Bradbury, a Blake Dawson Waldron lawyer and former Penrith mayor who had run unsuccessfully in 2001 and 2004. There were reports in 2009, denied by Bradbury, that he was not of a mind to run in Lindsay for a fourth time, as he was concerned at the impact of the state government’s unpopularity and hopeful the departure of Roger Price might provide a safer berth for him in Chifley. Labor’s concerns were powerfully reinforced by a devastating 25.7% swing in a by-election for the state seat of Penrith on 19 June 2010, which preceded Kevin Rudd’s demise as Prime Minister by five days. The interruption of the by-election resulted in what seemed an inordinately long delay in the Liberals choosing a candidate, before marketing executive Fiona Scott was finally given the nod less than a week before the election date was announced. In the event the Liberals picked up a swing of 5.2% which only slightly exceeded the 4.8% statewide swing, falling 1.1% short of what was required. The post-election review conducted for the Liberal Party by Peter Reith identified the delay as a failing of the party’s campaign, and recommended the party’s federal executive be given a “last resort” power to ensure the selection of candidates for important seats in good time.

David Bradbury has twice won promotion since his re-election, first to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer immediately after the election, and then to Assistant Treasurer and Minister Assisting for Deregulation in March 2012 after Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge. The latter promotion was achieved at the expense of NSW Right colleague Robert McClelland, who was dumped from the ministry after publicly backing Rudd. Bradbury will again be opposed at the next election by Fiona Scott, who won a March 2012 preselection vote against Hills Shire councillor Robyn Preston by 62 votes to 42. It had been reported the previous September that Tony Abbott had approached Jackie Kelly with a view to making a comeback, but she was unequivocal in professing herself uninterested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,296 comments on “Seat of the week: Lindsay”

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  1. Leroy

    Thanks. Interesting to see it in today’s paper considering it is the anniversary of the assassination. 😀

  2. Ian

    You pay for the flights direct from refugee camps around the world that would be required to Stop the Boats. This is the Howard lie. You have fallen for it. Australia is not responsible for people wanting to come here. Some blame can go to Indonesia over safety standards.
    No blame for Australia that does it’s utmost to rescue people even when it could be argued that Indonesia should be doing it.
    No party policy of Australia is causing deaths at sea. That is the truth.

  3. Rex Douglas @ 43

    and like clockwork on Newspoll weekend the Rudd/Maiden forces are at work again – FFS!

    treasonous and despicable

    William used a very good term that describes your posts to a tee.
    “A one note piano.”

  4. victoria

    Yes that is exactly what Henderson is trying to do. Along the lines as the Franklin article of this is normal practice etc.

  5. [Interesting to see it in today’s paper considering it is the anniversary of the assassination.]

    That reminds me: aren’t you supposed to be cleaning your bathroom with a toothbrush? 😀

  6. Turnbull didn’t deny what has been said. He simply said that Samantha Maiden didn’t put her story to him.

    He’s done this sort of thing a lot whenever he’s done things that could be construed as undermining Abbott

  7. victoria – no one sounds like a good option.

    Best guess, Malcolm expressed reservations amongst the Libs, and some of Sam’s contacts putting too much emphasis on it. Like all these reports of rumours of talks, there’s no way for us to tell.

  8. guytaur

    Wonder what Henderson will say when more is revealed. I expect he will be blocking his ears and eyes and shouting la la la la la la la……

  9. s212

    That says any comments Maiden makes in her article about Turnbull are made up because he has not confirmed it on the record. Unnamed sources just does not cut it,

  10. [He’s done this sort of thing a lot whenever he’s done things that could be construed as undermining Abbott]

    I wish he’d just flat out start white-anting.

    It’s about time Abbott had some of his own medicine.

  11. guytaur@92,

    Get it through your head. Boats are at sea because Australia is a pull factor. We are a rich democracy. Until that changes boats will come.

    And The Greens will continue to wash their hands of any deaths at sea. Reprehensibly.

  12. [The 90+ bloated corpses on Christmas Island would agree…..if they were still alive.]

    If the 90 people or so who died had wanted to, they might have refrained from getting onto that boat. While nearly everyone who gambles and loses wishes they hadn’t gambled, that’s how gambles work. You want to change the rules to make this gamble less attractive but if your rule changes work all that can happen is that they accept the costs and risks they hitherto saw as worse than prospective death at sea. It’s hard to imagine that they would have wished to be deterred from making that trade, though one can believe that they would have preferred better options. You are simply offering them worse options.

  13. confessions

    Yes indeed. There is a lot to do this morning, but all three kids are still snoozing. Cant make too much noise, otherwise I will wake the precious petals.
    Dont expect son to get up anytime soon considerng he only got home a few hours ago!

  14. I love the fact that hopping on the boats is their choice and they are asking to die but it is not ok to send them to Malaysia because they will be treated badly.

    Pullease.

  15. From the humourous fake Godwin account on twitter…

    [Godwin Grech ‏@godwingrech
    Alan Kohler interviewed Alan Kohler very capably on his recent sale of business to News Corporation #hardhitting #insidebusiness
    10:02 AM – 24 Jun 12]

  16. Surely Insiders could ask Henderson what he contributes to their program?

    No matter what is brought up, if it’s against the Coalition, ‘it’s not important’ is his only answer.

    We deserve better analysis than that shallow nonsense.

  17. catmomma

    FM Bob Carr ran into a problem when Henderson started arguing what are you going to do with Asylum Seeker number 801 and so on.
    The Malaysia Solution will not stop the flow. No solution proposed by Australian Government will stop the flow. It is just a reality.
    While Australia is a Rich Democracy people will come on boats.

  18. victoria@98,
    Gerard Henderson was trying to run the Coalition line up the flagpole which essentially excuses the members of the Coalition from their conspiratorial actions with James Ashby. Putting the shoe on an ALP foot would of course see Gerard in high dudgeon.

  19. victoria:

    It only feels like a few years ago it was me coming home at dawn on Sunday. Nowadays I can barely make it past midnight!

  20. [We deserve better analysis than that shallow nonsense.]

    I listened to Background Briefing on RN. Much more interesting and informative.

  21. c@tmomma

    if the evidence comes out that the LNP colluded with Ashby to unseat the speaker in its attempts to bring down the govt. Henderson will not be able to do a thing about it

  22. S.K

    I love the fact that hopping on the boats is their choice and they are asking to die but it is not ok to send them to Malaysia because they will be treated badly.

    Pullease.

    The idea that we hear from some that its better to die at sea rather than to be “treated badly” in Malaysia is downright offensive.
    There is no excuse for allowing people to die at sea, or die at all for that matter.

  23. confessions

    It has been a lot longer for me. Problem is I cant sleep properly, when the petals are out. I am always listening out for their arrival home. Thank goodness older daughter is not going out much these days, as she is saving for her trip she has booked to the US in January.

  24. Seat of the week: Lindsay

    I hardly need the flimsiest of pretexts to reprise this, but it seemed appropriate to yet again listen to this Uhlmann interview with Jackie Kelly a few days before the 2007 election. I still remember walking to work after listening to this, in the ful happy knowledge that Howard was gorrrrrrrn
    [JACKIE KELLY: Well, I’ve read the alleged pamphlet…

    an ALP goon squad, which I understand was is led by some unionists, have chased down and hunted down and tried to intimidate

    JACKIE KELLY: Where is this conversation going?]
    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2007/s2097573.htm

    GOLD!!

  25. guytaur@119,
    And The Greens will continue to wash their hands of any responsibility for the drownings of Asylum Seekers at sea because they are unwilling to trial a Regional Solution that is an attempt by the Gillard government and the UNHCR to disrupt the People Smuggling trade, as reprehensible as it undoubtedly is.

    No amount of the ‘Cést la vie’ attitude emanating from Greens apologists can disguise the fact they remain as unwilling as the Coalition to join hands across the table to work on the Regional Solution outlined in the Bali Process.

    That is a reality also.

    And if asylum seekers continue to cynically come in boats after the Regional Solution is put in place I predict they will get pretty short shrift. Except from those with an unrealistic perspective, and a politically-opportunistic perspective, on this issue.

    Let’s process Asylum Seekers when they get off the plane in Malaysia and Indonesia.

    Take our fair share of refugees from the camps scattered all around the world.

    Let’s make the process orderly and excise People Smugglers from Australia.

    And send the ones back who try and game the system and risk queue-jumping journeys on unsafe boats. Whether it goes against the UN Charter on Refugees or not because times have changed since the Charter was drawn up, and it also is being gamed by the callous and cynical people movers in it for the $.

    There. It can’t be too hard to do that surely?

  26. victoria,
    I can remember when I used to come home on a Saturday morning, have a shower, get changed into my work clothes and get the bus to work in a shop. 😀

  27. [The man sounds unhinged. It’s this kind of hysterical over-reaction that turns people off your arguments.]

    Ian Rintoul is IMO a professional bellyacher whose advocacy must turn off more people than it gets onside.

    What’s worse from my personal stance, I believe we should follow more than two centuries of Aussie practice and welcome anyone so determined to pay so much to take the risks of a long, dangerous and uncomfortable sea voyage to reach this country and build a better life for themselves and their children. And dangerous it was, until the Suez Canal and fast steam-driven ironclads reduced the horror death toll – as those who’ve visited Victoria’s Shipwreck Coast are well aware.

    All my Aussie ancestors came here on old (some very old) sailing ships, almost all on the 9 month voyages or the “Great Circle” (Polar) route. There are really only two differences between those who came on the RN’s crap leaky boats on the 9 month voyages and those who come on crap leaking fishing boats today – ethnicity and (for most) religion – the death-rate is probably about the same.

    What an unmitigated hypocrite I’d be if I denied today’s intrepid boat-people the welcome this country gave my intrepid boat-people ancestors – after all, if we’re not Indigenous, we all invaded another people’s land!

    If only we could stop that great curse of all who boarded crappy boats, sleek clippers and great ironclads – the deaths at sea – and that even greater curse of those who accepted Australia’s open-armed welcoming generosity, but refuse – on racist/ sectarian/ politial grounds (and they are the only true reasons behind Howard’s & Abbott’s reprehensible policy; the rest are windoe-dressing) – to continue the practice.

  28. Good morning Bludgers.

    [123
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink
    c@tmomma

    if the evidence comes out that the LNP colluded with Ashby to unseat the speaker in its attempts to bring down the govt. Henderson will not be able to do a thing about it]

    Well, he will probably try and explain it all away should the facts come out. The stink will be too much for anything of that sort to work, but he’ll no doubt try like a good Tory in any event.

  29. Has anyone heard further on this?

    [Racing Post @Racing_Post 9h
    “Black Caviar was not 100 per cent in the race. We’ll look at her when we get home and she might be retired,” trainer Peter Moody.]

  30. Let me see if I have got the Greens position on the drowned refugees right:
    1. If they arrived in Australia – process in community
    2. If they drown – not our problem but maybe Indonesia should be blamed
    3. When they are in Indonesia – this is where there is conflict between:
    a. Do nothing but make pious comments about the inhumanity of it all
    b. give free visas and flights to all refugees
    c. Double or triple the refugee intake and leave it to the UN to sort out.

    Is this correct?

  31. OPT

    The difference today and two hundred years ago, is that death was treated with the shrug of shoulders, now our Maritime personnel have a duty of care to carry out. Should our policies allow this practice to go unimpeded?

  32. [Julia Gillard ‏@JuliaGillard

    Congratulations, @KKeneally. Wishing you all the best as CEO of Basketball Australia. JG]

  33. Ian@135

    Prove your claim. Prove where Greens are responsible for Indonesian Boat standards and Indonesian policies that let boats come. That is just as valid as saying the Greens standard of treat them humanely when they arrive causes deaths at sea.

    Both are stupid statements to make. Until you can prove without doubt and not assert a policy might work at stopping boats you are lying.

  34. Turnball would be lucky to get half a dozen votes in the Coalition Party Room – as long as the Coalition stay 10 or more points ahead, Abbott’s safe.

  35. victoria

    My brother in law mapped out BC’s likely career over a year ago. So far he’s been right all down the line.

    If BC competed in a handicapped race, she would be weighted down so much she could hardly move.

    This means that there are a decreasing number of races in Australia she can compete in.

    He correctly predicted that she would be retired after a certain race last year (can’t remember which one, I’m not a racing fan and am just repeating what I remember) because there weren’t any ‘weight for age’ races for the rest of the season, and I’m fairly sure he said that one os race was probably it.

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