Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.

It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.

Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.

UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,107 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Poor old Greg Hunt. Shadow Minister for Climate Action, Environment and Heritage in a party that in their hearts don’t believe in Climate Action, wasting time and money on the “Environment.” And what the hell is Heritage? He probably thought he had a career in Federal politics until he was suckered into this job by Turnbull. Much like the government his career ends at the next election. As a Tory I have some (not much) sympathy for him because I have corresponded with him and he is a genuinely nice bloke, but damn did he pick the wrong portfolio.

  2. Watching the Levenish Inquiry I got to wondering there could be a simple way to improve media standards.

    If a newspaper writes a story or the T.V or Radio media report a story they the are required to print or read out a media release from the department or company involved.

  3. I do a lot of lurking here. It is one of the best sites to find tips on what is going on in Aus politics up to the minute. This might sound silly to you, but what is the Bludger obsession with the Levenson thing about?

  4. Mexicanbeer, not as bad suggestion. I don’t believe in any regulation of the media but if it there must be rules then yours is quite a good idea. A story written purely from a press release should have a link or reference to the original press release. I doubt jounos would go for it as it would show many up as just re-writers.

  6. Good morning all.

    Mysay @ 2289,

    [Fiona plesse not spaniels]

    I meant it in the nicest possible way – you know how good spaniels are at doing the “Ohhhh, how could you do this to me” when denied food, put outside, etc?

    Psyclaw @ 2298,

    True, he’d have to practise really really hard to hide it…

    See y’ll sometime this evening.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Christian Porter will rattle more than one cage (see William’s link above).
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/robbs-finance-job-safe-says-abbott-20120612-208ak.html
    It doesn’t look like any paper is reporting how the head honcho of GE Australasia said that since 2004 all GE investment decisions worldwide were required to factor in a carbon price of $30/tonne. How surprising!
    I could use one of these at times.

    Alan Moir on Fatty’s budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Ron Tandberg getting down and dirty.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    . . . because of this inept effort.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/water-billing-scandal-grows-20120613-20am7.html
    Lance Armstrong in the doping frame again.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/lance-armstrong-faces-fresh-doping-charges-from-usada/2012/06/13/gJQAefnPaV_story.html
    Abbott with more disgraceful scaremongering.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/abbott-scare-tactics-in-olympic-dam-claim/story-e6frede3-1226394828410
    David Rowe really sums up Abbott here.
    http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  10. Good morning Bludgers brave and true!

    The sun is up.

    The birds are singing.

    Labor is still in government.

    Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister.

    Wayne Swan is still the WGT.

    Tony Abbott is still the WGD.

    Things are looking up, no doubt about it. Roll on July 1!

  11. Morning All

    The push to cut the company tax rate is a mistake for mine – GST is, for some reason, off the table so paying for it becomes very difficult and the Greens will oppose it anyway – rightly so imo – so why bother???

    Better option would’ve been to put the original 1% cut to the vote and forced the Liberals to vote it down – Labor could then say they genuinely tried.

    Congrats to the Blues on their win last night, second half was an absolute cracker – bring on game 3 and the 7th series win in a row to Queensland 🙂

    Special mention to Robbie Farrah – 64 tackles is an amazing effort, all the best to his mum who’s doing it tough and had to watch from hospital rather than the corporate box that was arranged for her.

  12. You lot are going to dissolve into a frenzy of bile the minute Abbott wins, aren’t you? Hopefully it doesn’t knock over this blog.

  14. The comparison of Australian electricity prices to world electricity prices on a direct dollar per unit basis can be highly misleading with one major factor being the exchange rate used.

    Just recently the oz dollar was at US $1.10, plunged to US$0.96, change of around 13%.

    Depending on when you compared prices and the exchange rates used that translate to a 13% difference in electricity prices between Australia and other countries.

    Historically the Oz dollar has traded at around 60 euro and US .75, recently it has been 78 euro and US1.00, a 30% increase.

    Study electricity prices over the period of the appreciating OZ dollar and allowing for no increase in prices in the countries concerned and you would find that overseas prices had dropped 30% in Oz dollar terms.

    Now that would make a better headline, electricity prices drop by 30% overseas whilst oz prices continue to rise due of course to the baaad carbon tax.

  15. Senor, baa baa black sheep any wool? Moody cut Spain bond from A3 to Baa3. Within 3mths it will be Junk – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9330702/Moodys-says-Spain-faces-being-cut-to-junk-within-three-months-full-statement.html Vs AAA for OZ

    [Moody’s says Spain faces being cut to ‘junk’ within three months: full statement
    Moody’s has warned it could cut Spain to “junk” within three months, as it slashed the country’s credit rating by three notches, citing the increased debt burden linked to its bank bail-out. Here is the rating agency’s statement in full.

    Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded Spain’s government bond rating to Baa3 from A3, and has also placed it on review for possible further downgrade. Moody’s expects to conclude the review within a maximum timeframe of three months.]

  16. You lot are going to dissolve into a frenzy of bile the minute Abbott wins, aren’t you?

    Short answer, no. He’d be treated more or less the way Campbell Newman is treated. Disdain, but there won’t be much of that “waaa waaa it should be us” crap we get from LNP types. And there’ll be particular note taken of the number of programs he won’t be able to unwind even if he really wanted to.

    If it even happens.

  18. [in shaky handwriting.]

    Can you feel the love, such a good dispassionate unbiased article that we do not see much of these days.

  20. The moral of EURO crisis. Any country or politicians that surrender the right of a country to PRINT MONEY or QE should be put away

  21. I don’t know whether Abbott is Randall Flagg or Nosferatu, or even Damien Thorn, but there’s something creepy going on as he goes about the land sowing discord, distrust and despair.

    He’s hardly got a good word to say about anyone, or anything.

    Bernie Banton, within days of death? Drama queen.

    Carbon Tax? Not flawed or misconceived… Abbott uses a death metaphor: “toxic”.

    Nothing the government does cuts it, even when they cut company tax – stated Coalition policy, core business for them – Abbott can find an excuse not to support it. Ditto for off shore processing of boat people.

    The man is so negative, so nasty, so cruel and obsessed with death and destruction of anything that gets in his way. He literally wants Australians to see no hope. His currency is fear and misery.

    How can someone who is like this actually be considered as a potential Prime Minister of the nation when all he’s ever done is try to frighten us all to death?

    I don’t get it.

  24. BK @# 2457

    It doesn’t look like any paper is reporting how the head honcho of GE Australasia said that since 2004 all GE investment decisions worldwide were required to factor in a carbon price of $30/tonne.

    How surprising!

    Do you have a reference for that report please?

  25. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 29m
    Ambassador David Ritchie has been in meetings overnight regarding freeing Melinda Taylor from Libyan detention. No result yet.]

  26. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 27m
    PM Gillard says given the strength of the Australian economy, we can together ‘conquer’ the challenges like introducing the carbon price.]

  29. Found this tweet interesting. Sure BK will be impressed

    [Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 10h
    @gaycarboys @Gwillotine @KasiaCichonska @MWhalan @ScottMorrisonMP You should hear the poison that comes across the chamber from S Mirrabella]

  30. Good Morning, Bludgers.

    [Paul Sheehan piece on Christian Porter, believed to have been submitted to the SMH in shaky handwriting.]

    So shaky, he forgot to mention dad Chilla’s High Jump Silver Medal at the Melbourne Olympics – probably because he and his family still lived in Brisbane.

  31. victoria @ # 2478

    “ratsars

    Here is press release from GE Electrics re carbon price”

    Looks like I am not the only one who has a senior moment :):)

    Thanking you in anticipation.

  32. [
    Danny Lewis

    Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    Ah, shit Finns.

    Apologies for forgetting those magnificent BISONs. ]

    Hi, Danny. Talking of that, could George do up a poster of that? Would be great if a sample was available for the SA Lunch, which I’m looking forward to.

  33. Amazung listening to the whingeing and moaning on ABC radio already over the Marine Parks policy… and it hasn’t even been officially announced yet!

    Fisherman and tourist operators mostly. They all say it’s the end of their lives. They may as well wind up their businesses, and shoot themselves now… get it over and done with.

  34. Thanks Victoria

    Generally not a bad speech but now that Ms Jackson is an historian what mental illness did St Joan of Arc have?

    Before anyone says but she claimed to have heard voices, in a medieval sense I am not sure that we would class that as a mental illness.

  35. [I agree with the disrespectful meme, albeit I don’t think it harmed the PM’s efforts.]

    GD, I think it enhanced the PM’s efforts, especially as she was calmly able to joke about her & Tony Jones’s both being there in 2013, then turn the joke on him by wondering whether he would be. Not used to that treatment, is Tony Jones; even less from a much denigrated female Prime Minister he’d rudely tried to talk down; but the audience liked it.

    Jones’s last comment – that Tony Abbott repeatedly refused to front Q&A (as the PM has done solo at least twice – served to reinforce the difference between PM Julia Gillard’s gutsiness and LOTO Abbott’s utter gutlessness.

  36. Me to fiona, lol

    Just worried i woud think of him every time i look at my darling spaniel

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 but no ,lol
    Had to laugh ar your comments about 6 year olds grand son is now 6 wouod love to know more about the data collection

    Re o they al never stop talking and ask a million questions, but actually think they know everything,

  37. no one likes their lifestyle to be diminished BB – be that through a new marine park or improved public transport

    agree with your last point though – “get it over and done with”

  38. [Before anyone says but she claimed to have heard voices, in a medieval sense I am not sure that we would class that as a mental illness.]

    In a mediaeval sense, it meant she was a Witch and the voices the Devil’s – hence her being burned at the stake as a witch!

  39. TickyFullerton:

    [Fight, flight or fright for Qantas?
    Alan Joyce reckons Qantas’s value based on assets is $2.40 a share, that’s $5.4 billion dollars. Theoretically, private equity could buy the company, sell everything and double their money. John Singleton, (part of the old APA bid) in the SMH today agrees: “Qantas, if you bought all its shares for $1 billion tomorrow, you’d have $3 billion in cash in that company. Cash. It costs you $1 billion to buy $3 billion – is that a good deal or not?”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-13/fullerton-flight-or-fright-for-qantas/4068968 ]

    Hard to think of a better time for a Federal government buy-back.

  40. mexicanbeemer

    If KJackson is eventually found to have ripped off the membership of the HSU, her speech will be regarded as a pathetic hypocrtical display

  41. [no one likes their lifestyle to be diminished BB – be that through a new marine park or improved public transport ]

    But there’s little indication that entire industries would die overnight. This is Abbott fear and smear stuff.

  42. [ABC Radio Brisbane @612brisbane 7m
    The PM @JuliaGillard in studio at 8.30 with Steve Austin.
    Retweeted by latikambourke
    View details]

  43. Apologies if already posted

    [Would Nixon get away with it in the Google age? A web of ‘citizen journalists’ cannot replace newspapers.
    FORTY years ago, five men in business suits were arrested burgling the Watergate building in Washington DC, the site of the Democratic National Committee’s headquarters. What was initially dismissed as a “third-rate burglary” by the White House press secretary would provide the thread for exposing a thoroughly criminalised White House, led by the paranoid delusions of its very strange 37th president, Richard Nixon.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/democracy-running-low-on-ink-20120613-20af8.html

  45. [Hey Danny, what happened to them BISONs?

    They are still roaming wild & free]

    And multiplying; but the week if not by the day!

    Onya, Finns!

  47. Bb the fisherman , can move out to sea further
    The tasmanin foresters cannot, move,

    They are being very well compensated, so will be any fisherman
    Isaw a story a few years ago think it wad on s a saying to many fisherman , and a lot got out.

  48. I was very surprised the quest liberal last night
    Ask why we are interested in leversen
    I thought that was very obvious.

    S liberals dont get it, ?
    Thats rather a worry

  50. An interesting column from the SMH on “What will replace newspapers?”

    [A web of ‘citizen journalists’ cannot replace newspapers.
    The battle goes like this: independent writers charge that Canberra’s press gallery has squandered their readers’ goodwill with a mindless focus on trivia. With some, you detect a gleeful anticipation of the collapse of mainstream newspapers. The other side derides the bloggers’ smug detachment from journalistic and political realities, arguing they know nothing of “shoe-leather endeavour”.

    The truth is, both have points. Many independent writers and bloggers provide commentary rather than reporting, depending on mainstream journalists’ facts for their analysis. Much of it is very good, but I doubt that the less glamorous aspects of our civic life will be covered by a well-intentioned brigade of bloggers.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/democracy-running-low-on-ink-20120613-20af8.html#ixzz1xiQhbczx ]

    I have a couple of ideas.

    1. A cross-company internet bureau, run co-operatively, consisting of the major players now, but also including publications like IA and other internet “newspapers” that charges a nominal fee (5 cents?) for every article read. To access any newspaper you have to pay, but only a very small amount.

    Any extra money made from advertising would be each individual organization’s side benefit to keep.

    Everyone would have to be in it, though, so perhaps it wouldneed to be administered by an independent government body?

    2. Let the papers die, and re-fund the ABC, with a top to bottom re-structure that weeds out the spruikers and lurk merchants (youse know who they are). This would ensure basic data gathering, and then commentators could feed off that (as well as what they feed off now). But this might not be economically sustainable.

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