Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.

It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.

Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.

UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,107 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. From the ‘isn’t Christian hot?” article:

    [Should he go to Canberra he will bring a quick-witted verve to a Federal Parliament which is lacking in verve of any kind. He also has a beautiful wife, Jennifer.]

    I’m sure she is. And I’m sure she makes an adorable handbag. I’m just not sure why references to her beauty are randomly inserted into the article as a sort of after thought.

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/magnetic-polls-draw-young-star-from-west-20120613-20aiz.html#ixzz1xiRy5IS1

  2. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 12s
    PM won’t accept ‘characterisation’ of report her staffer Nick Reece, who quit overnight, was running a dirt unit from within her office.
    View details · ]

  3. I am very pleased with the Marine Park announcement. I agree wholeheartedly with BB’s comments.
    I noted that on AM there was a story on the Government starting a Dirt File on the Liberals. More evidence the ABC has become a wing of the Liberal party propaganda unit. A case of how outrageous that the Government should get material so they can point out the hypocrisy in the trial by parliament the Coalition is running.

  4. Oh goody! (sarcasm)

    Nick Reece who has just left the PM’s office allegedly ran a dirt unit …

    And yet another distraction from the PM’s economic message.

  5. BB

    Internet News will be co ops as there is not going to be much money in it. It is not going to be text. To get an idea of how things are moving go and look at the Twit Network. A successful business model showing the way of the future IMO.
    http://twit.tv/about

  6. John McTiernen seems to be running the Gillard ship these days – I guess all other staff members in her office are superfluous.

  7. When is providing the public the details of which LNP members are investing in coal companies while their leader is saying coal towns will be wiped off the map dirt?
    When it shows the public the hypocrisy of the Liberals.

  8. I noticed the newsltd story on farirfax

    Will fairfax write stories about news ltd.

    I wondered, who will write the last story.

    May be a blogger. Just projecting my mind some years down the track

    How many, i spoke to a retired employee of a newspaper of 43 years, this person thoight
    3/5 years

    I was at that time very surprised, now i am not.

  9. [I love the smell of a Prime minister dirt unit in the morning. Smells like rank hypocrisy…].

    Wait until it’s revealed who leaked the youtube video of Rudd.
    I suspect that Gillard’s office/dirt unit has been directing their fire against one of their own, not the Liberals.

  10. [I love the smell of a Prime minister dirt unit in the morning. Smells like rank hypocrisy….]

    He was working 80 hour weeks and has a new baby, plus a home in Melbourne.

    I’d quit too.

  11. Damn Labor, now the Germans want our Dollar!

    Bundesbank considers Australian dollar assets

    Published 4:22 AM, 14 Jun 2012 Last update 4:22 AM, 14 Jun 2012

    In a move that would prove a dramatic step in Australia’s emergence as a safe haven for investors rattled by the European debt crisis, Germany’s central bank, Bundesbank, is reportedly considering adding Australian dollar assets such as bonds to its foreign currency holdings, according to The Australian.

    Bundesbank officials have reportedly been holding meetings with major Australian banks and the Reserve Bank of Australia in recent months to discuss the potential change in foreign currency strategy.

    Talks began as far back as 2010, when the RBA prepared a briefing document for the Bundesbank detailing the nature of Australia’s debt markets and the economy, The Australian reported.

    The Bundesbank’s current foreign currency reserves are dominated by US and Japanese government bonds, with 93.1 per cent of its €29.433 billion ($A37 billion) in foreign currency reserves being held in US dollar assets.

    Amid the instability of the European debt crisis, the Australian dollar has proven increasingly attractive for central banks. Russia’s central bank has recently added Australian dollar assets to its portfolio.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Bundesbank-considers-Australian-dollar-assets-pd20120613-V8P4P?OpenDocument&src=hp7

  12. my say

    Fantatastic news. Good to see. Some real value adding coming. I expect a good part of that will be thanks to the NBN abolishing distance concerns.

  13. Rummell all u ever offer is slogans

    , is it time you where offto work

    May we ennquire as to your work place or profesdion

    I am retired ‘ vic works in her busines so does bb
    Most here are retired or justn pop in on theway to work

  14. Victoria

    It just clouds out anything positive the PM has to say. The media will probably find clips of Gillard going off at Howard in 2007 when it was revealed that his office had a dirt file on Rudd’s heart problems and were peddling stuff about Gillard herself.

    Not going to be a good day

  15. TLM

    Dirt unit!!!

    Short memories thy name is hypocrisy. Hypocrisy thy name is liberal.

    Grech, Abetz, Turnbull, Toyota utes, abuse of Senate committees!

  16. Yes guytuar,
    And i truly beleive becauce our brave lady premier did not cut
    One public service job,
    That gives people confidence, and makes otgers happy, as if they have a business
    Near a governmentt building they know people are still there customers

    The city died when half of myer burned down, which is now being rebuilt

    There is another story that woud interest you about public housing,
    Cassy oconnors portfolio , green , we are doing it ourselves
    Not private. Company, hope it works or the libs will have a field day.

  17. Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    Amazung listening to the whingeing and moaning on ABC radio already over the Marine Parks policy… and it hasn’t even been officially announced yet!

    Well it was Joh Bjelke-Petersen who granted oil companies leases to drill for oil on the Great Barrier Reef and Gough who stopped it with the Seas and Submerged Lands Act in 1973.

    Yet again the Labor Party standing up for Australians and their future.

  18. “A distraction a day keeps keeps the truth at bay.”

    Yesterday, electricity prices.
    Today “dirt unit”
    Tomorrow, (Peta’s still working on it)

  19. Maybe the Porter move is the result of casting around for a new Federal LEADER.

    Abbott: unelectable.

    Turnbull: electable, but hated in the party.

    Bishop: well, they’ve seen what Gillard cops. All other women can be ruled out, too.

    Hockey: too stupid; too prone to bouts of politically-inconvenient honesty.

    Morrison: Mr Glass Jaw just blew his chances (if he ever had any)

    Pyne: Hahahahahahaha!

    The only option is to bring in a clean-skin. Someone interstate voters don’t really know, but the Libs are hoping they will warm to.

    As long as he can smile nicely for the cameras, not be a total Dr No, keep his testosterone in check and maintain his (apparently) attractive wife & pop out some kids (v. important to remind voters that a certain Ms Gillard is unmarried and deliberately barren) then he might be the best chance they have to prevent Labor from doing a Steve Bradbury next year.

    The stakes just got raised in the Libs and I, for one, will be watching on with great interest 🙂

  20. @ABCNews24: Environment Minister @Tony_Burke will be making a major announcement on marine parks at Sydney Aquarium this morning. Live from 9.30 AEST.

  21. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 19s
    Labor Figure told me the other day they’d told PM Gillard she needed to ‘clean out’ her office.]

  22. Spurr this like the last stand for, them

    No policies,

    Yes may be a annoying self pitying day for the poor darlings,

    Just get a twitter accout use your knowledge, and say it lie it is,

    Twtter may not get news to ordinary folk yet
    But my goodnesx seems to anoy the helk out of
    The junos and others,
    When people laugh at them they get irritated
    The radio and tele never goes on here till evening ,
    Unless oh has a break and watches old british comedies

    Try it

  23. TLM
    The JG cheer squad unfortunately has to work copious amounts of overtime to rectify compulsive Lieberals machinations.

  24. Bourke @latikambourke 19s Labor Figure told me the other day they’d told PM Gillard she needed to ‘clean out’ her office.

    Poor latika, may be the cleaner was ill

    🙂 🙂 🙂 ,

    Well there you go another no name , person just a labor figure

    Lets imagine a stick man drawing

  25. Whoever told the PM to clear out her office (by which I assume they mean her advisers) is 100% correct.

    Honestly, she does a better job saying what she feels is right then whatever advice they’re giving her

  26. The Finnigans

    BISON birth alert !!

    Oh for a journo to ask Tones + Hockey to explain why the Bundesbank have got it so wRONg. 🙂

    [GERMANY’S Bundesbank, one of the world’s most powerful central banks, is considering adding Australian dollar assets such as bonds to its foreign currency holdings in a historic move that would reaffirm Australia’s emerging status as a safe haven for investors amid growing disquiet in Europe.
    In a dramatic sign of Australia’s rising position as a financial powerhouse, …]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/bundesbank-eyes-a-assets/story-e6frg8zx-1226394901194

  27. This is an amazing display of arrogance:

    [Water billing scandal grows

    THE Melbourne Water scandal could be set to intensify, with the authority now admitting it will continue to overcharge millions of consumers for their water until at least early next year.

    Amid an outcry over the discovery that households have been mistakenly billed for a desalination plant that is not yet operating, Melbourne Water confirmed last night it intended to keep charging people for the plant anyway.]

    [Opposition water spokesman John Lenders blamed the government for Melbourne Water’s refusal to refund customers now, saying the government had milked the authority of cash.

    Water Minister Peter Walsh denied the government was treating Melbourne Water like a ”cash cow”. He said excess charges would be returned to customers ”with interest”.]

    They want to consult with customers about the best way to return money that they illegally took from the customers and will continue to take until next year?

    [Melbourne Water said it would consult with people on the best way to repay the overcharged funds. ”We want to reassure customers that they have a voice in how the over-recovery of funds is managed going forward through our draft Water Plan consultation process,” it said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/water-billing-scandal-grows-20120613-20am7.html

  28. Shock horror “dirt unit” in PM Office. “digging up LOTO KRudd’s medical records, that he had a heart procedure 14y ago http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/accusations-fly-about-dirt-unit/2007/09/23/1190486116109.html

    [Accusations fly about ‘dirt unit’, September 23, 2007 – 10:56AM – Veteran political journalist Laurie Oakes says the Liberal Party is behind a “fact sheet” about a Howard Government minister who visits gay bathhouses and harasses other men.

    A report in News Ltd papers today says the fact sheet claims the unnamed minister, who is married with children, sexually harasses other males in political circles and is rumoured to be sleeping with one of his staff members in Canberra.

    It follows accusations last week that government operatives were digging up Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd’s medical records, after confirmation Mr Rudd had a heart procedure 14 years ago.

    News Ltd journalist Glenn Milne’s report on the gay accusations today says the fact sheet on the minister was not being circulated by the Labor Party.

    While interviewing deputy Labor leader Julia Gillard today about the personal smears tarnishing federal politics, Mr Oakes revealed he, too, had been fed the material about the minister.

    And he pointed the finger at the Liberal Party.]

    hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

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