GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
[Why? Does he like that sort of thing?]
He loves the biffo Leroy. He’s Ron Doig’s great-nephew.
If you’d like a diversion, the “robust” debate in the HoC on the motion censuring Culture Minister Hunt for misleading the House over the BSkyS bid is slowly, noisily nearing its end
To add interest, Leaked Tory Crib Sheet of Planted Hunt Questions (with an end comment: “Watch out for the loyal comrades…”) has given the Opposition advanced knowledge.
Live streaming http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=10883&player=windowsmedia
I can’t believe the ABC, constantly smashing the govt, constantly opining and spinning garbage, when was the last insiders without mercilessly bagging the govt, mostly repeating lib talking points, sometimes even less honest (in the morons chair for example).
I lodged a complaint about 5 months ago about their constant calling of the carbon price a carbon tax, when it clearly wasn’t a tax. I complained that as the national broadcaster they shouldn’t get such a fundamental fact wrong. I said it was more surprising, and more disappointing that this fundamental factual inaccuracy was an ongoing replay of the oppositions lie in this area.
I got a response that conceded it was factually incorrect but that it was ok they were factually incorrect because being factually incorrect was standard in the carbon pricing debate. Needless to say I’ve never bothered wasting my time complaining to the liberal party branch masquerading as the ABC. It is just disgusting.
They are making Murdoch right, when publicly funded broadcasting is this bad it should be defunded so as to let the moronic commercial media alone on the field to do the commercial norm of lying, tapping phones, harassing innocent familes and bullying PM’s. It is disgusting.
[I’d hate to see Julia’s polling in NSW after today’s news about the electricity price hikes.]
I know liberals who hate labor less than you. No vengeance quite like a lover spurned.
TLM the problem is that its going to be government of the day issue regardless if there is Carbon Pricing or not, it’s just an convenient excuse to use, because you know it’s just around the corner.
The Electricity Grid is getting OLD.
The voters are gloomy
_____________
A survey has just shown that the voters are more gloomy about their own finances than at any time since 1990(the recession that saw the end of Hawke and Keating’s rise)
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/sense-of-gloom-worst-since-1990-20120613-20ajv.html
[The Electricity Grid is getting OLD.]
The Electricity Grid was old and at capacity 20 years ago. It has been all liquid nails, cheap wire and chewing gum since. Lots to do with politics nothing at all to do with carbon pricing.
Victoria 2391 re new money flow
__________
The educ allowances will be no suprise to those who have been getting them for some years…except that the method of payment.is new..in a lump sum will be all at once
I know of a family member who has two kids and regards the changes in the educ payment as of little note
I quess for those who have been on the list in the past it may be welcome
As for the Tax compo the same person simply saw that as “mortgaged” already tp meet the power rises
Don’t expect a great surge of gratitude for the Govt
and the critics will have a field day with the rises in power bills which effects everyone
Carbon price will be a non issue in six months. NBN already is, despite what HOJO thinks. Mining tax pretty much a non issue. Next NDIS pokies and Gonski. With any luck they will all be done in 12 months and the coalition will be on BOATS.
If people feel they haven’t been adequately compensated for electricity price rises(and rises in the cost of other amenities after July 1) – bye bye Gillard Government.
Combet was rather arrogant about this on radio earlier.
There will be lower income households who’ll have their power cut off because they can’t pay the bills.
@TLM you been saying that for ages, give up already.
snap,
yep.
Although the more accurate description is them as the pot. They are full of it.
I’d hate to see TLM #2399 using his favourite barbed wire vibrator, for that matter, must be even more painful with a carbon price.
gee deblonay,
How do you operate with that gloomy outlook? Do you look at a rainbow and say, “Damn, someone’s messed up the sky. “
That’s not very nice, MM.
And as for her economic forum – complete waste of time!
@William/2415
Neither is TLM for being continually conductivity negativity.
tlm.
Well at least it was better than the Liberal Party, which is a compete waste of space.
[Newspapers need to produce something that lasts more than a news cycle if they’re going to survive. Because news and information is quicker to access than ever, and you can do it all with a click of the mouse. But people still gravitate to anything that gives them a fresh perspective, or a new avenue of information.]
I think this is such an interesting subject. I have a few propositions to offer. First, I think people usually do not want “information” so much as they want “meaning.” In many ways, despite all the information they harness, organise, store and transmit, the mass media usually do not generate meaning.
In important ways, it is arguable the mass media really just tends to destroy “meaning”. In fact, it is arguable that “meaninglessness” is an inevitable consequence of news-market saturation. The mechanics of this process could take up several volumes, but is best illustrated by considering the mass media’s own self-description: they see themselves as a system for the production, delivery and sale of “content”. Almost by definition, “content” is interchangeable. It is therefore not created with the intention of expressing “meaning”. It is just abstracted information that fills up space and is to be produced, replicated and discarded at the lowest possible cost. It is a system based on cloning. I think the media companies know this, and try to engineer their products so that they can be mistaken for “meaning” – say, for example, by appealing to and exploiting audience prejudices.
By turning news into a usually undifferentiated 24/7 stream-of-content, news itself has almost disappeared. There is no longer a sense of “events being made”, merely an awareness of one of set of sensations replacing the last. In a really vital sense, this means the mass media no longer generate social meaning: they only depict transient phenomena all of which has a roughly equal valency or potency.
At the same time, the public (who are just as curious, intelligent, creative and responsive as ever) and who are now better educated, better connected, more mobile and better tooled-up than ever can, will and do look elsewhere for “meaning” – that is, they look for individually-relevant experiences and exchanges that satisfy our continuing need to sense, reflect on, learn from and act in the world in which we live.
The gadgets that are now ubiquitous in our culture enable people to do this almost without any interaction with mass media. This means the mass media has ceased to be a primary source of meaning and, for most people, has become nothing but wallpaper.
Greg Hunt did an entire interview on LL, presumably as opposition spokesperson on the environment, climate change and water, without talking about any of these things.
What a joke.
Apparently he is now minister for keeping electricity cheap. And Tony Jones didn’t question him about this apparent contradiction at all.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-13/brooks-faces-court-over-hacking-scandal/4069376
[Rebekah Brooks, the former top aide to Rupert Murdoch and friend of British premier David Cameron, appeared in court for the first time on Wednesday to face charges relating to the phone-hacking scandal.
]
Yes, the ALP should respect any mandate at the next election if they lose because the LNP has been so good about respecting since they lost office. Oh wait.
Puff 2414
Re Gloom… Puff
_________
You must have misread that article
I didn’t write it you know !
The survey was from a bank and seems authentic
I’m not given to gloom…but I am a realist…which makes me one of a minority here on PB
Some of the rosy expectations expressed here are far from the reality driven
Whether right or wrong…there is a general mood of gloom …probably fostered by the endless media coverage of European events,notably in Greece and Spain
Many Australians seem to have a rather vague idea of where we are located
The endless gloom from Europe seems infectious..after all our Head of State is a Pommy Grandma !! so how close to Europe are we ?
Why didn’t Tony Jones read Antony Green’s blog and nail Hunt on the fact that he cannot get a double dissolution election to happen before mid 2015?
Yeah I love that bit about mandate.
The ALP will go to the election stating very clearly they promise to block the Liberals on the Carbon pricing scheme and the Mining tax.
So what if the Liberal’s win? The ALP get a choice between “going against the will of the people” or “keeping their promise”.. lol
There really should be more talk in the media about the Liberal’s being ineffectual and bogged down in a new Parliament post the 2013 election.
Its the Carbon price
Its the Mining tax
Its the NBN..
How many other things would be blocked?
I guess if the people are stupid enough to vote for Tony then at least I’ll have the enjoyment of watching the Liberals get bogged down with a hostile Senate. And the months go by without any real legislation getting through.. joy!
[Why didn’t Tony Jones read Antony Green’s blog and nail Hunt on the fact that he cannot get a double dissolution election to happen before mid 2015?]
Because that might be ‘offensive’ to the Liberal party
[ Dario
Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 12:43 am | Permalink
Why didn’t Tony Jones read Antony Green’s blog and nail Hunt on the fact that he cannot get a double dissolution election to happen before mid 2015?
Because that might be ‘offensive’ to the Liberal party]
And two apologies in one dy will send them into melt-down.
I missed it. what was the other apology substantively about?
Prof Stiglitz Nobel Prize winner
Sees the USA as being on the brink !
_______________
He sees economic inequality as a major course of the crisis and a possible cause of a major social collapse….
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/12/1099366/-Stiglitz-Economic-Inequality-Is-Leading-Our-Nation-To-The
2424
The no-election before late 2014 is based on the assumption that a DD cannot be called when there are Senators-elect yet to take there seats after a half-Senate election. As the constitution does not specify this, but does specify that a DD cannot occur within the 6 months before the expiry of the HoR by the effluxion of time, this is a debatable point. If the GG (if the barrier exists it is most likely in reserve powers territory) were to allow it, and this may depend on the half-Senate result, then a Senator-elect could challenge the dissolution of the Senate and it would be up to the High Court.
Dee @ 1495
[ Did anyone watch Business last night after Lateline?
I thought Ticky Fullerton’s bias ‘slip’ was in full flight last night, so very unprofessional. ]
When at home I record this most nights. I know it is a big call but I believe Ms Fullerton is the most biased presenter on the ABC.
fairly said, Bilbo #2415. I withdraw the barbed wire, unconditionally.
debonlay
true
the whole country deserves a good kick up the non sun-shiny orifice.
mm
OOOUUUUCH.
[I’d hate to see TLM #2399 using his favourite barbed wire vibrator, for that matter, must be even more painful with a carbon price.]
I gather the gillardistas have a communal one.
[When at home I record this most nights. I know it is a big call but I believe Ms Fullerton is the most biased presenter on the ABC.]
Biased against the Liberals of course. Just ask them.
Not sure if the non shiny is abbotts ahem or mouth,but both seem to drop the same substance,have actually read the mouth has more germs than the ahem.
dARIO,
You know the born-to-rules. Anything less than forelock-tugging by the peasants is a deadly insult.
snap
I have heard that a human bite is the most dangerous re germs.
The public are used to having a pretty ‘easy’ time of it over the past decade or so, they I believe take the good economy for granted and I don’t think give governments too much credit for it.
The mining boom mantra has probably brainwashed the public to thinking that this is why things have been rosy, and not good govt policy.
On the flip side however if the economy takes a bit of a hit then the govt can get the blame, regardless.
The risks for Labor are if things do turn sour (and for those living with their head in the sand there are in fact very big things going on that can easily affect us within the next 12 months, and probably will. And if credit markets freeze at any time then we will learn very quickly.). The public and Opposition can easily turn to the Carbon Tax and the Surplus target as things that may haves added to any down turn and pain.
TP
And spiders to you to.
(health warning: do not click on link if arachnophobic)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-13/eunuch-spiders-fight-off-competition/4067866?WT.svl=news3
Wonder if someday this will be likend to a liberal dirty tricks department,over slipper/ashby and thomson/jackson/lawler and even abbott.
[The arrest of the Watergate burglars set in motion Nixon’s fourth war, against the American system of justice. It was a war of lies and hush money, a conspiracy that became necessary to conceal the roles of top officials and to hide the President’s campaign of illegal espionage and political sabotage, including the covert operations that Mitchell described as “the White House horrors” during the Watergate hearings: the Huston Plan, the Plumbers, the Ellsberg break-in, Liddy’s Gemstone plan and the proposed break-in at Brookings]
Intresting article from IA
David Donovan@davrosz
What we all need … an Abbott free sense: http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/an-abbott-free-sense/
Re Lateline: Did I correctly hear Greg Hunt describe a carbon price of $350 per ton in 2050 some 27years after trading has commenced? Seriously?
Yes.
Keep in mind that there are serious aspirational targets for 2050 – 60-80% reductions from business-as-usual. So yes, it’s easy to imagine these sorts of prices by that time.
However, this totally ignores the fact that the whole point of the exercise is to push the economy to restructure away from carbon based energy, and if that restructuring actually occurs, carbon pricing becomes largely irrelevant to most of the economy.
[Keep in mind that there are serious aspirational targets for 2050 – 60-80% reductions from business-as-usual. So yes, it’s easy to imagine these sorts of prices by that time]
On a world trading scenario?
Jackol
He also said that removal of the MRRT would directly reduce costs of generation. Is this logical given the MRRT is a profit based tax?
Gecko – do you think I’m defending Greg Hunt’s points in general?
I think his LL performance and points were dismal. As the environment/climate change spokesperson he didn’t reference the environment or climate change at all. His only talking point appeared to be “keep electricity prices low” which is just a nonsense.
As for the MRRT and electricity prices – there may be some mild connection, but I agree it would seem to be a bit tenuous.
[Gecko – do you think I’m defending Greg Hunt’s points in general?]
Hell no… I just needed to be calmed. It isn’t easy listening to nonsense when it goes unchallenged… it was either you or alcohol. 🙂