Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.

It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.

Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.

UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,107 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. I wonder what are their views of a Gina Rinehart board of FXJ…
    [“In addition we foreshadow our intention to call an EGM to put forward our concerns about this decision. At that meeting we would move a vote of no confidence in Greg Hywood and the Fairfax board.”]

  5. Well, newspapers have kicked 50% of their audience share in the guts. Now isn’t that a bright business model, telling half your customers to go and get smurfed.

  7. Puff – what a fantastic bargain. Will make it all the better to work in once you installed it.

    Speak of the devil, Greg Hunt is on Lateline. Jones says ‘will you acknowledge that 9% is the proportion for carbon tax in NSW electricity prices’. Hunt says wtte ‘only a Labor Govt. could ask families to celebrate an 18% price rise’.

  9. Worth reading. Pretty sure it will open for everyone, but if not it’s free to register.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/politics-journalism-opinion-polls-newspoll-gillard-pd20120613-V7VFA?OpenDocument=&src=sph

    [Polling the real Julia
    Michael Gawenda
    Published 9:23 AM, 13 Jun 2012 Last update 9:47 AM, 13 Jun 2012

    According to The Australian’s Denis Shanahan, the latest Newspoll published “exclusively” in the paper on Tuesday shows that Julia Gillard’s billions of dollars of “giveaways” to compensate people for the effects on household budgets of the looming carbon tax have failed to put even a small dent in the unpopularity of her government.

    The Labor government, according to Newspoll, would be smashed if an election were held now. That’s despite the fact that Tony Abbott is more unpopular than Gillard who is, of course, the most unpopular prime minister in the history of the universe.

    None of this was really news, was it? It’s a sign of the state of journalism that an opinion poll gets an exclusive tag nowadays, as if the poll has anything to do with good journalism. Indeed there was a time I can dimly remember when opinion polls were never allowed to be the major story on page one basically because they weren’t considered to be journalism.

    So it goes. Now opinion polls are almost exclusively the source for journalists on which they base their view of what’s happening in the country, what Australians are feeling and thinking and each poll is treated as if it’s a revelation. ]
    Lots more, much of it similar to observations made here.

  12. Rossmore

    If I’m channeling anyone’s lines, I’m channelling Possum’s. His analysis of things was part of what pushed me. Things are flat poll wise and they are unlikely to change as the PM has firm beliefs (not perceptions) associated with her by the electorate … Not to mention the firm beliefs associated with Rudd and what happens psychologically when he’s attacked by opponents on all sides

  14. Thanks Rossmore, will read.

    Have actually been reading DeLimiter’s other articles about JoHo’s utterances on the NBN.

    This bloke just does not get it and needs to be kept away from any role in which he could affect national level policy. He is a buffoon and his “rebuttal” stuff is silly.

  15. Interesting week actually. Looks like the LNP are running around like rats now after their little retreat. We’ve got Morrison conflating ABC bias with Boat People, Hockey taking on tech experts, Pyne whining about electricity prices and Hunt doing whatever it is he’s trying to do to the environment. None of them seem to be talking sense, and none of them are adding anything to the paltry selection of Coalition policy either.

    But they’re out there pointing in different directions. I take it this is some effort to monopolise media space lest the good news from the economy takes hold.

  16. Hunt is all talk and jones did not ask about low income and pensioners being refunded,let hunt get away with tax cuts they cannot pay for

  17. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-21/australians-pay-highest-power-prices-says-study/3904024

    March 21 st 2012

    n households are paying among the highest electricity prices in the developed world according to research commissioned by the nation’s top 100 power users.

    A report released by the Energy Users Association of Australia (EUAA) shows average electricity prices have grown by as much as 40 per cent in the past five years.

    It says prices are far above those paid in the United States, Canada, Japan and the European Union, and predicts prices will continue to rise significantly due to the introduction of the carbon tax and ongoing infrastructure costs.

    The Federal Government acknowledges power prices are rising, but says it is helping with cost-of-living pressures.

    Energy suppliers themselves say the drivers of these costs are structural and deregulation, and that greater competition is a crucial part of the answer.

    Top of the list

    The study involved a comparison of 91 countries, states or provinces in the developed world and found that household electricity prices in four Australian states were in the top six.

    “Those four states collectively make up 75 per cent of the Australian population,” said EUAA executive director Roman Domanski.

    Those states in order are South Australia

    Well according to this S A was paying tne most in march

    No carbon price

    Then so pynes has to opologise

  18. [ jillsinger @snooplady 3h
    It really is a bit rich that @JuliaGillard cops it sweet when given a hard time by ABCTV but @ScottMorrisonMP squeals like a stuck piglet]

  19. Greg Hunt is a weasel. Is it too crude to suggest we use his name as rhyming slang?

    Some here still seem to think he has ‘decency’ or is a closet supporter of action on climate change. He isn’t – through correspondence with him I came to realise he is the source of may of Abbott’s lies on this (I though he only defended the lies, but he raised untruthful points that later came out of Abbott’s mouth). He is, like Pyne and Abbott, a former university debating team ‘champion’ and simply does not care about the truth of the proposition he is ‘debating’. Like Pyne and Abbott he makes my skin crawl.

  23. [2331
    BH

    Mr Scott also said he had been surprised “at the speed and intensity of the decline in the newspaper sector here in recent months”.

    “People who work inside and have full insight into the performance of the mastheads speak with a genuine shock and fear about what the numbers are now telling them about the precarious print business model,” Mr Scott said.]

    Newspapers as we know them are basically useless these days. They serve almost no real economic purpose that cannot be better served by other means.

    They are a very expensive way to gather and distribute news and they are far from being the best venues for advertising. They tend to eat value, rather than creating it, from an advertiser’s point of view.

    Of course, they have long ago surrendered any pretense of being impartial, balanced, honest recorders of events. Instead, they have become producers of empty dramas of all kinds, created for the sole purpose of driving sales and swelling egos.

    Hopefully these relics will go the way of hieroglyphics and the illuminated tome before too long.

    There is another dimension to all this as well, which is that we live in an increasingly post-literary culture – a culture where visual and aural media are becoming pervasive. So if people aren’t reading or writing, or if they are, they are reading or entering tweets, texts, blogs and pics – what is the point of a mostly written, mostly tedious, mostly expensive and mostly a-social medium like a newspaper? Reading a paper is like visiting a museum. Curious, but dead.

  26. http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/power-prices-to-be-highest-in-the-world/story-e6frea83-1226305741810

    this is the basis of Pyne-O’s story. the table seem to leave out Tonga at 57c pkwh – but hey.

    and this is statistic is from the Barnaby Joyce school of economics, where you look for the big numbers an quote them verbatim.

    a better comparison would be as a % of average income or average wealth. eg, how many hours does the avarage South Australian have to work to pay the electricity bill, compared with hours worked elsewhere.

  29. Re news papers
    Soon we want even wtch tv

    A link was put here
    Showing there is shows and movies being made for tablets , ipads

    I looked at oh and said you will have to have one of these too

    Cannot you all see us sitying in our rocking chairs, 🙂 with hand held device and earphones

    People on the beach no magazine just there little computer i hand.

    Facinating

    In 10 years time or less people will say news paper tv what was that.

  33. It smacks of desperation by the fibs.

    To me it smacks of what they always do. It’s worked for them before.

    Simple formula: Get out there and tell everyone that everything’s going to be awful; journalists nod heads sagely; news services report uncritically; people get gloomy.

    It’s a set-and-forget strategy for them from here. They need to do more than that, but they won’t, because they don’t know how to any more. What’s forgotten in all this is that they’re not smart operators, they’re not flexible in their thinking and there’s no way possible for them to outflank the ALP policy-wise.

    What they are is brazen, totally brazen. They’ll pull the most outrageous stunts in parliament, and try to disrupt it in any way possible, and then stand there with a straight face and say that parliament is not functioning. They’ll doom-and-gloom their way through every photo-op and presser, and then say that confidence is down and it’s all the government’s fault. They’ll chase Thomson to the ends of the earth and then openly court Kathy Jackson, a woman with far more questions marks hanging over her. And there are dozens more examples where they came from.

    So this week is just more of the same MO. They’re not panicking yet. They might be eyeing the polls a bit nervously, but I think they still have confidence that they’ve hit on the right path.

  35. BH 2299…
    Re cook books
    +____________
    If you have any really old and in some way unique cook books there is a bookshop in Fitzroy(Melb) called “Books for Cooks” who may offer to buy interesting ones
    My wife has been a collector for many years and has found some old treasures in op shops etc
    Some pre -war and older.with interresting illustrations…and some foreign ones too
    I have yet to get her to part with the many hundreds which now tower over me …but
    Your may find a buyer at Books for Cooks

  37. Power price rises
    _____________
    I suspect that the huha today on the talkbacks is a forerunner of a concerted LOTO campaign to link the power rises with the Carbon Tax on July I
    You heard it here first on PB !!

    Could be very bad for the Govt as the bills roll in

  39. It’s been five years since howard was turfed. Five smurfin’ years of whinging, whining, moaning and groaning from the coalition. Never has so little been achieved by so many for so much effort, outside of the Seti project.
    ‘

  40. Briefly:

    Newspapers as we know them are basically useless these days. They serve almost no real economic purpose that cannot be better served by other means.

    They are a very expensive way to gather and distribute news and they are far from being the best venues for advertising. They tend to eat value, rather than creating it, from an advertiser’s point of view.

    I’ve been thinking about newspapers and their usefulness lately. You’re right about them. I can only think of two things they can provide that can’t be obtained anywhere else:

    1. Quality Opinion.
    2. Fast and Accurate Assimilation of Information.

    If they could have the news stream digested and interpreted overnight, with informed comment, there may be a reason to buy them. The raw information can be gathered by anyone with an interest and access to a computer (and the ability to do that will only increase for the average person over time). And more importantly, bias or attempts to misinform are rooted out pretty quickly.

    Newspapers need to produce something that lasts more than a news cycle if they’re going to survive. Because news and information is quicker to access than ever, and you can do it all with a click of the mouse. But people still gravitate to anything that gives them a fresh perspective, or a new avenue of information.

    What they’ve done is hunker down and protect what they have. What they ought to be doing is reaching out and grabbing the smartest and clearest-thinking of the bloggers out there and putting them all in one place. Wouldn’t you buy a paper that gave you a Pollytics and a Grog column every day? Those two are more than capable of providing daily columns.

  41. deblonay

    People have received compo already, and families will be receiving education bonus money this week too. Minimum of $420 for primary student snd $820 for secondary student.

  44. in W.A residential electricity prices:

    11.32c off peak
    42.15c peak

    and 21.87c std rate if your not on the peak/offpeak billing.

    and prices go up 8% July 1.

  45. Excellent Point ,and think others should start saying it.

    Gordon Graham‏@GordonGraham

    why should the ALP respect a mandate to repeal the carbon price when the Coalition rejected a mandate to establish one in 2009? #Lateline

  47. Never has so little been achieved by so many for so much effort, outside of the Seti project.

    Yup, but the small chance that SETI has of finding anything was offset by the major positive significance of the event if/when it does succeed.

    If the Coalition succeed it is an unmitigated disaster.

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