This week’s better-late-than-never installment of Seat of the Week brings us to La Trobe, one of two crucial gains for Labor in Victoria at the 2010 election which helped redressed losses in New South Wales and especially Queensland. The defeated Liberal member, Jason Wood, will attempt to recover the seat from Labor’s Laura Smyth at the next election after winning a preselection ballot earlier this week.
La Trobe has covered Melbourne’s eastern fringe since its creation with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, drifting south-eastwards over time from its starting point of Dandenong and Croydon. It now consists of two rapidly growing outer Melbourne areas separated by the Dandenong Ranges – Boronia and Ferntree Gully in the north, and the Berwick area in the south – and extends eastwards through Belgrave to Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook. Labor’s strength around Belgrave is countered by Liberal dominance around Berwick. The redistribution that will take effect at the next election has effected a swap of about 16,000 voters around Bayswater, who have been transferred to Aston, for a similar number in Narre Warren, who were previously in Holt. Another 3000 voters around Pakenham have been transferred to McMillan. Antony Green calculates that the changes have boosted Labor’s margin from 0.9% to 1.7%.
Along with other seats in Melbourne’s outer suburban “sandbelt”, La Trobe played a decisive role in the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, falling to Labor for the first time with a 10.2% swing. It swung almost as heavily the other way when the Liberals recovered it in 1975, but returned to the Labor fold in 1980 when Peter Milton defeated Liberal member Marshall Baillieu (part of the clan that includes the current Premier). An unfavourable redistribution in 1990 combined with the statewide anti-Labor tsunami at that year’s election to deliver a 1.4% victory to Liberal candidate Bob Charles. The seat had a remarkably stable time of it on Charles’s watch, staying with the Liberals by 2.4% in 1993, 1.4% in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 3.7% in 2001.
With Charles’s retirement at the 2004 election, La Trobe emerged as a contest between Liberal candidate Jason Wood, a police officer who had worked in counter-terrorism and organised crime units, and Labor’s Susan Davies, who held the since-abolished state seat of Gippsland West as an independent from 1997 to 2002. The result was an easy win for Wood, who overcame the loss of Charles’s personal vote to pick up a 2.1% swing that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged suburbs nearer the city. Wood had won preselection with the backing of the Kennett faction after cutting his teeth as candidate for Holt in 2001. It was noted at the time he had “been a member of Greenpeace for longer than he has been a member of the Liberal Party”, and he went on to embarrass his party ahead of the 2007 election by issuing a brochure that failed to sing from its song sheet on nuclear power.
Wood went into the 2007 election with a 5.8% margin, of which only 0.5% was left after a swing that was most conspicuous in the areas that had moved to the Liberals in 2004. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for justice and public security when Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership in September 2008, despite the embarrassment he had recently suffered after stammering his way through a parliamentary speech on genetically modified organisms (which repeatedly came out as “orgasms”). The 1.4% swing that unseated him at the 2010 election was fairly typical for Victoria, which collectively swung to Labor by 1.0%. The successful Labor candidate was Laura Smyth, a lawyer for Holding Redlich whom VexNews linked to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”.
VexNews reports that Jason Wood’s victory in this week’s preselection ballot was achieved with 61 votes in the first round out of 140, against 38 for Mark Verschuur, managing director of Fairmont Medical Products (and, apparently, a former ALP member); 17 for “IT uber-nerd” and “chick magnet” Martin Spratt; 14 for local councillor and former mayor Sue McMillan; and 12 for Michael Keane, an anaesthetist and former member of the Liberal Democratic Party.
The thing about the ALP Conference is that it really has no control over Federal Policy especially in Government.
If this is a good or bad thing I am yet to decide.
So should all ministers now, say similar to,
Craig emmerson when ask about gossip.
I think so , if reporters only want to know views on gossipp and not policy , to bad.
OC
I agree with you on Carr. He did break the mould and we are the better for it.
my say
Its a Newspoll weekend. No gloom and doom as normal for such a weekend.
Probably means higher poll on monday for Labor. Emerson interview will have helped.
C@tmomma As it is now illegal for unions to give donations to ALP campaigns in NSW does that mean that the unions will no longer have representation at conference?
William
On a technical point, there are sandy soils in the Clyde area, in the far south-western corner of Latrobe but that would be about it, IMHO.
The hills, of which most of the seat is comprised, have a variety of soils. The old outer ‘sandbelt’, which used to grow a lot of Melbourne’s vegetables, is by now pretty well covered by golf courses and suburbs. I suppose, geographically, you could call Latrobe the mixed hilll soils and flat heavy clay belt outer seat.
Very rapid urbanisation is occuring along the railway line axis out towards, and well beyond, Pakenham, basically along the break of slope between the hills and the Kooweerup swamp flatlands. Every time I go along there, there seem to be whole new suburbs springing up.
I agree my say. Let the inner Emmo run free on all Ministers. Hey News person I am the story not you.
[uawake
Posted Saturday, June 9, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink
The thing about the ALP Conference is that it really has no control over Federal Policy especially in Government.
If this is a good or bad thing I am yet to decide.]
That is because you have no idea and are too gutless to admit when you are wrong
Scringler,
re solar panel.
I know absolutely nothing about the ‘how to’ but I do know someone who lives on a property near Goulburn who found the cost of getting electricity to the home he built on his block prohibitive. He started off with a couple of solar panels and batteries that ran his lights and a fridge. As he could afford it, he added to his system and now runs his whole home on solar power. Therefore, I think it must be possible for you to run a heater from a solar panel plus a battery.
Back when I was just a bit of a brat, we upgraded from the hurricane lanterns and coolgardie safe to windpower (what was called a ‘freelight’ wind turbine. The energy it produced was stored in a bank of batteries and gave us 12v power (I think). When the wind stopped, a diesel generator took over.
Maybe there will be no Newspoll due to the Public Holiday and thus it is a normal weekend?
guytaur – I’m watching on FoxFooty (not FTAS here) and haven’t seen team yet. Is Goodsie playing tonight?
ru
matt said it was a newspoll weekend
BH
When did he get his one week suspension?
Vic Liberal state MP Shaw is giving Ballieu a big fat headache
[Shaw has his supporters. The federal MP for Dunkley, Bruce Billson, applauds Shaw’s work in winning funding for local hospitals and schools. ”His work is well regarded locally. He has some allegations against him. Now that they are being investigated I am hopeful that takes its course and Geoff is given the opportunity to give his account of those things]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/a-shaw-thing-from-obscurity-to-notoriety-20120608-201ag.html
Which is not to say that Senator Ursula Stephens is not a nice person, she is. Also she has involved herself in many worthwhile initiatives to do with rural communities and also Thorium Nuclear Power generation, as an alternative to Uranium/Plutonium.
So I was probably a a bit harsh to say she was a waste of Senate space.
C@tmomma
[hence Rudd supporter.]
Are you sure about that? To the best of my knowledge she is a member of the Right and if she is supported by the Shoppies she would have voted with them.
For those of you weren’t around before:
http://www.change.org/petitions/australian-house-of-representatives-alter-standing-order-to-ban-suspensions-during-question-time?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=share_petition
The Petition is aimed at preventing Abbott from using QT as his evening news TV spot
Scringler – ask around your area and you may find someone who is really into solar as Janice said. We have a few in this area who have built their own systems and help others.
Our neighbour bought the materials and made his own and it works well.
wonder where this is being reported?
[Maybe @Maybeee2011 9m
Is this big, Ive lost track? RT @newsfeedAU Former HSU Ruth Kerry accuses Jackson destroying docs &laundering $ through colleagues bank acct]
Have done it for you Jen and received an email acknowledgment
vic
Been catching up on the backlog of posts since I posted about racism at the Euro2012 contest.
Your post about the d!ckhead Collingwood supporter being turfed out of the club was good news.
All sports should have zero tolerance for anything that even vaguely looks like racism.
C@tmomma @ 145
You are doing a good job at starting to define the problem. That is always a first step to solving the problem.
I think the experience of the NDP in Canada is worth examining from the little I have read about it.
I support both unions and the ALP, but I just wonder if the present relationship between them isn’t like a bad marriage. It needs to be replaced with a good marriage on a new basis.
Some things that should happen IMHO:
1. Unions elect their delegates by a democratic process.
2. Union members be encouraged to join the ALP in their local electorate.
3. ALP membership fees be reduced to encourage a mass membership. Revenue loss to be made up by fundraising drives.
4. Structures other than the traditional branch be experimented with and adopted if successful. e.g. online ‘branches’.
5. Policy committees need reform but I can’t yet see what the answer is. Currently there are too many factional hacks elected that do no work, never turn up and are only there in case an issue near and dear to their faction (or a union in it) arises and they want to vote on it.
6. Branches need to be out and ‘in the face’ of their local community. Advertise meetings, invite prospective members, get involved in community activities, get stuff in the local paper, use social media.
I am sure others have heaps more to suggest.
Your points are very good. The small contractor needs industrial representation as much as the wage and salary earner, possibly even more.
Tanks gus 🙂
If I may be permitted my share of doomism and gloomism, if the Newspoll is rogue low, then expect Shanahan to write that the public doesn’t care about low inflation, low interest rates, low unemployment and high GDP growth.
All they care about is Craig Thomson and that hooker.
Take it from me.
jen
I’ll be retweeting that every day from now on to drum up more sig’s.
[When did he get his one week suspension?]
guytaur – During preseason matches. He’s been out for 3 weeks with a bad injury and I thought out for another 3 or 4 weeks. Match just started on FoxFooty. Very disappointing to have to watch it that way but reception is a big problem here.
[support both unions and the ALP, but I just wonder if the present relationship between them isn’t like a bad marriage. It needs to be replaced with a good marriage on a new basis.
I’ve only met Stephens once she was charming and helped me with a project but she is very much instructed by the right. I think she was a teacher.
[All they care about is Craig Thomson and that hooker. ]
In which case there isn’t nay hope for this country. It really doesn’t deserve to have anyone trying to get its people a fair go.
I’m starting to sense a bit of a turn around though. From here on I think things are going to get bit closer to around 50/50 before the next election. Even if the LNP win from there (say 51/49 TPP), it will make it harder for them to ram through any of their more extreme agendas.
Only time will tell though.
That is, totally the opposite he extensively opined about in the runup to the 2007 election – where he repeated over and over that howard would not lose while the economy was going well.
oops, that should be any hope, not nay hope.
OC@155,
It is certainly causing a lot of head-scratching at the moment in NSW. I was told recently that it may well bring about the diminution of Union financial influence over the ALP that I wanted! 😀
Though not in an immediate sense. Which also applies to the Delegate situation at the Conferences, State and National. For that to come about would require a vote at, guess where?
Bh
Commentators just said another week or two due to injury.
Heres hoping end of night Swans on top of ladder.
Commentators just pegged Jetta right Sensational. 😀
C@tmomma and OC
What is your opinion of the NSW Branch settling with Fairfax re Thompson. I found it interesting that they weren’t going to make the settlement public until Faulkner insisted that the members should know.
MTBW@166,
The last leadership vote was one in which some MPs who had had the support of the Shoppies, eg my own local Member, Deb O’Neill, voted for Julia Gillard, yet others did not.
As you remember the vote was held in secret and I think there was a degree of flexibility allowed as a result. The Left Faction certainly didn’t vote as one!
I’ve been hearing a lot of tall tales about Unions that is most likely Liberal propaganda, but may be enough to prevent people viewing them in a positive light.
Stories like one member did something that displeased his union, and so some thugs came around and threatened to throw him off the West Gate bridge.
I think that effort should be put into removing this mindset that Unions in Australia are run like Mafias.
For crying out loud, Unions contributed so much to our quality of life. Sick leave, 8 hour days, long service leave and penalty rates come to mind from the top of my head.
But not surprising. The events around the HSU isn’t exactly benefitting the union movement lately.
So if the NSW unions are not allowed to donate to the NSW ALP what is to stop them from donating to an ALP fund in Victoria to pay for things like election advertising in NSW?
[But not surprising. The events around the HSU isn’t exactly benefitting the union movement lately.]
How so?
BH
Jetta sensational again
[with a host of technical challenges. Yeah, I guess I am one of them.]
And that’s not all ….
The Unions are mafia theme comes from US GOP referring to Teamsters Union and Jimmy Hoffa
C@tmomma
My rep who is of the left was one of those who voted for JG.
[ Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno 5m
Get tough on boat people ! But refuse to support the Malaysian deal. I don’t get it.]
C@tmomma – I’ve never been in a Union and had nothing to do with them except for YRAW when we helped out up here but I don’t want a split. I think they were formed together and should find a way to stay together amicably.
How else can Labor stand against the conservatives and their big business backers.
@gusface
I’ve been overhearing some conversations about what people think of how the HSU is run, and how Thomson revealed in parliament the sort of threats he got from other officials for being difficult, including being set up with a hooker.
I imagine that it’s making people think that all unions are run this way.
Emmo is communicating with a large audience via his tweets, and the retweets.
It is an entirely new form of communication,requiring the message to be conveyed in less than 140 characters. The skill required in this is no different from a 3,000 word pamphlet or opinion ion piece in the Age or SMH. The line between making an arse of oneself and deep foresight is very narrow.
Emmo is a classic early adopter and streets ahead of other politicians. Good luck to him
Von
I would stay away frrom young lib meetings in future
👿
guytaur – if you are on twitter check #afldonsswans
All hard won. Employers fought hammer and tong not to allow any of these conditions.
All now taken for granted, an attitude of so what.
But employers still want unions gone and do everything to achieve such an outcome.
Unions obviously have their faults, but people turn to them in times of difficulty and shun them in good times.
BB:
You’ll be pleased to know that Matthew Franklin has a lot of faith in Shanahan. According to him:
He had lots more nice things to say about Shana, including that he was right about “Rudd ascendancy” and “Gillard coup”.
I didn’t think Shanahan was right about either of those, but maybe I’m mistaken…