Seat of the week: La Trobe

This week’s better-late-than-never installment of Seat of the Week brings us to La Trobe, one of two crucial gains for Labor in Victoria at the 2010 election which helped redressed losses in New South Wales and especially Queensland. The defeated Liberal member, Jason Wood, will attempt to recover the seat from Labor’s Laura Smyth at the next election after winning a preselection ballot earlier this week.

La Trobe has covered Melbourne’s eastern fringe since its creation with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, drifting south-eastwards over time from its starting point of Dandenong and Croydon. It now consists of two rapidly growing outer Melbourne areas separated by the Dandenong Ranges – Boronia and Ferntree Gully in the north, and the Berwick area in the south – and extends eastwards through Belgrave to Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook. Labor’s strength around Belgrave is countered by Liberal dominance around Berwick. The redistribution that will take effect at the next election has effected a swap of about 16,000 voters around Bayswater, who have been transferred to Aston, for a similar number in Narre Warren, who were previously in Holt. Another 3000 voters around Pakenham have been transferred to McMillan. Antony Green calculates that the changes have boosted Labor’s margin from 0.9% to 1.7%.

Along with other seats in Melbourne’s outer suburban “sandbelt”, La Trobe played a decisive role in the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, falling to Labor for the first time with a 10.2% swing. It swung almost as heavily the other way when the Liberals recovered it in 1975, but returned to the Labor fold in 1980 when Peter Milton defeated Liberal member Marshall Baillieu (part of the clan that includes the current Premier). An unfavourable redistribution in 1990 combined with the statewide anti-Labor tsunami at that year’s election to deliver a 1.4% victory to Liberal candidate Bob Charles. The seat had a remarkably stable time of it on Charles’s watch, staying with the Liberals by 2.4% in 1993, 1.4% in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 3.7% in 2001.

With Charles’s retirement at the 2004 election, La Trobe emerged as a contest between Liberal candidate Jason Wood, a police officer who had worked in counter-terrorism and organised crime units, and Labor’s Susan Davies, who held the since-abolished state seat of Gippsland West as an independent from 1997 to 2002. The result was an easy win for Wood, who overcame the loss of Charles’s personal vote to pick up a 2.1% swing that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged suburbs nearer the city. Wood had won preselection with the backing of the Kennett faction after cutting his teeth as candidate for Holt in 2001. It was noted at the time he had “been a member of Greenpeace for longer than he has been a member of the Liberal Party”, and he went on to embarrass his party ahead of the 2007 election by issuing a brochure that failed to sing from its song sheet on nuclear power.

Wood went into the 2007 election with a 5.8% margin, of which only 0.5% was left after a swing that was most conspicuous in the areas that had moved to the Liberals in 2004. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for justice and public security when Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership in September 2008, despite the embarrassment he had recently suffered after stammering his way through a parliamentary speech on genetically modified organisms (which repeatedly came out as “orgasms”). The 1.4% swing that unseated him at the 2010 election was fairly typical for Victoria, which collectively swung to Labor by 1.0%. The successful Labor candidate was Laura Smyth, a lawyer for Holding Redlich whom VexNews linked to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”.

VexNews reports that Jason Wood’s victory in this week’s preselection ballot was achieved with 61 votes in the first round out of 140, against 38 for Mark Verschuur, managing director of Fairmont Medical Products (and, apparently, a former ALP member); 17 for “IT uber-nerd” and “chick magnet” Martin Spratt; 14 for local councillor and former mayor Sue McMillan; and 12 for Michael Keane, an anaesthetist and former member of the Liberal Democratic Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,980 comments on “Seat of the week: La Trobe”

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  1. I don’t think any of the named senators would be a great loss to the Australian parliament particularly the NSW one. It is a great pity the rank and file do not get a vote in Senate pre-selections otherwise these senators would not have to worry about who is leading the party.

  2. bemused

    The world keeps changing and smart meters are part of the changes. They are part of changes to make the entire electrical distribution system more efficient. Eventually the system should work like the internet does today. Just as you can send and receive information on the Net, you’ll be able to send and receive electricity, be able to receive it from anywhere in Australia when you need it and send it to anywhere in Australia that needs it when you don’t.

  3. Oakeshott Country

    It is quite possible that if members voting had been in place in the past that the Greens Party would never have risen to the status it now holds.

  4. Bemused, I remembered a interview on TV a while back and went hunting for information. Seems there have been some towers built in Victoria.

    HUGE smart-meter towers being built in parts of Melbourne are distressing residents and councils powerless to stop them.

    Electricity company SP AusNet, which insists radio frequencies emitted from the structures are safe, has constructed eight “monopoles” 30-40m high. More sites are being assessed.

    Knox City Council’s Angelo Kourambas said riled residents living nearby were mainly concerned about the “visual blight” of the towers.

    “They stick out like the proverbial,” Mr Kourambas said.

    h­ttp://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/smart-towers-are-ugly-sticks/story-fn7x8me2-1226299792572

  5. ruawake:

    I cannot believe the Massola and Franklin reaction to Emmo. Duh if you want to talk policy rack off we are not interested.

    I just had a read-through of Massola’s twitter feed. It’s very enlightening. His argument seems to be more along the lines of ‘Emerson ought to expect these sorts of questions’, which misses the point entirely. Emerson did expect those questions, he anticipated them. Emerson just believes that addressing what are, in effect, side issues takes up far too much time and acts to prevent discussion of policies. Which Massola seems to agree with.

    He also mentioned that the ‘talking points’ approach to interviewing started with Howard and continued through the Rudd era to now. Of course, with Howard it was more a pretext for him to do a bit of dog-whistling or pandering to attitudes. The ‘talking points’ weren’t attack points in his day.

    Massola thinks that MPs want to weigh in on the ‘yarn of the day’. I can only assume he’s talking about LNP MPs there.

    He’s been very conciliatory toward Emerson in his tweets with him.

    BTW, Matthew Franklin did confirm that Newspoll are out in the field this weekend, for those still wondering.

  6. ruawake
    Posted Saturday, June 9, 2012 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    Nobody seemed to care when Vestey owned most of the NT, nobody winced when Tate and Lyle bought the sugar industry, Parmalat owned milk – who cares. The Europeans were one of us.

    Japanese money helped open up our resources projects in WA since the 1970’s – very quietly via joint ventures so as to not spook the horses or inflame the likes of the RSL etc.

    Basically the Government is taking the same sort of approach with China on resource projects. I think it is a maximum of 20% Chinese ownership on existing established projects and up to 50% on new projects.

    The Chinese just went far too aggressive when they sought to buy into RIO when they got into trouble during the GFC, eg bragging how they were going to screw the Iron Ore market and also trying on to get Chinses law to apply to apply to business purchased by Chinese Government entities in Australia.

    No Australian Government was ever going to let them get anywhere near getting a dominate hold on our iron ore assets through RIO or any other way.

  7. Agreed. The party in NSW at least has been in the thrall of a small, unrepresentative and largely unelectable faction for some years. I would trace a lot of its problems to that.

  8. Who are the three named Senators?

    Good question even if we knew their names. Bishop, Furner and Stevens are leather polishers.

  9. I can’t find the source but the AFR is reporting that Bishop apparently came out of the blue and said their seats are at risk if JG leads the party but will be saved if KR comes back. Personally I can’t belueve a caucus member would say such a thing – I suspect it is a beat up.

  10. peppy7 @ 103

    bemused

    The world keeps changing and smart meters are part of the changes. They are part of changes to make the entire electrical distribution system more efficient. Eventually the system should work like the internet does today. Just as you can send and receive information on the Net, you’ll be able to send and receive electricity, be able to receive it from anywhere in Australia when you need it and send it to anywhere in Australia that needs it when you don’t.

    I think you overstate the case there.
    Qld, NSW, Vic, SA & Tas are linked but not WA and NT.
    So transmission along the east coast and SA is feasible within the capacity of the links.
    But you also need to be cognisant of transmission losses which become significant over long distances.

  11. back from surf club
    overcast some showers ruawake in case you wish to continue your unfounded lying allegations;
    Ta is losing a lot of gloss atm.

  12. the spectator
    Posted Saturday, June 9, 2012 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    *great article* and *Shaun Carney* shouldn’t be used in the same sentence as far as I’m concerned.

    The day Labor take any advice from carney is the day they should pack up shop.

    The way Carney’s employer, Fairfax are traveling it may well be a penny dreadful stock or taken over by the time the next Federal election is held.

    It is also noteworthy that two businesses Fairfax sold, Seek the online job outfit and an online used car sale website are trading on the stockmarket each at 5 times plus the price of Fairfax.

    dave all very interesting points but I take it you have no problem with an organisation which has a representation of 18% of the workforce (ie not society) controlling a 50% voting stake in one of our major parties? Please explain your logic because it does not stack up to me. infact this sort of voting arrangement is akin to how Rupert has rigged the voting at newscorp. It needs to change and change now.

    Puuleeezzz.

    The ALP is the political arm of the Union movement and voters decide who they vote for or don’t vote for. Its up to them.

    The libs are backed in ever sense of the word by the big end of town and history shows the libs return the favour in spades. Likewise the Nats with cockies.

    Using your own argument, what proportion of the big end of town plus the cockies is represented by the workforce – far far less than 18%.

    Membership of both the main political parties are falling historically (while conceding the libs believing the are going to win next year are getting some new members ).

    Probably the greens are the only party increasing membership at a steady clip ?

  13. MsAdventure @ 105

    I was unaware of that, but then it was in the herald-sun so is it true? 😉

    It is certainly not the general case.

    There are all sorts of poles and towers all over the place anyway. I recall a fuss about a tower for the train radio system being build in the Jordanville area. Damn nimbys.

  14. [ Sorry, scringler, that sounds a bit more accusatory that I meant it to! ]

    zoomster,

    That’s OK. During summer, it’s fine. Have a cold-only conditioner for extremes.

    I just fancy the idea of running a small heating unit, overnight, for free!

  15. lizzie @ 112

    Preppy7

    So does that mean I’m getting variable elec prices per hour yet? Or is it still on the old system?

    Impossible. Unless of course you have a man standing there 24 hours a day taking readings. 😛

  16. OC

    Thanks! Very interesting!

    Feeney is one of Don Farrell’s SDA numbers. I am sure that Psephos who used to post here still works for him. Don’t know much about Furner and as you say Ursula Stephens’ one of those who waited in line for her turn to come around.

  17. On the same lines, anyone know how much power a computer uses compared with any other household appliance? Mine is on all day.

  18. I understand PC moniters use the lions share of power associated with computers so have a screen save running plus turn off the screen completely if not in use for long periods.

    Overnight switch off of course.

  19. lizzie

    You are still on the old system. It will take time for things to change including political will to move to a more efficient system. The Electricity industry is still highly regulated and it will be while before the rules are re-written.

    bemused

    Yes I admit that WA and NT are a stretch using current technology so maybe I’m speaking too soon. But we’re talking about what we are hoping to do in the future and most of the power is needed on the East Coast anyway.

    MsAdventure
    I don’t live in SP Ausnet’s area or deal with them at work so I wasn’t aware they’d decided to use towers so I guess I mis-spoke. However most of the distributors aren’t using the towers and in any case even in SP Ausnet’s area they are fairly small in number. Nothing like the numbers needed for mobile phones, etc.

  20. Mtbw feeney is a Vic and strong supporter of JG. This is Furner. I can understand the confusion I had never heard of him before either.

  21. MsAdventure @ 122

    Bemused, up here we say – “Is it really true, or did you read it in the Courier Mail”? 👿

    Yeah, same is said here about the Herald-Sun and there were bumper stickers available a few years ago.

    I used to reckon it was so bad I wouldn’t wrap my garbage in it. It would taint the garbage. 😉

  22. It’s amazing how quickly things change, four years ago (actually three years and ten months ago) I was an early adopter of an Apple iPhone 3g. (First and last apple device I’ve ever owned, Android is the way to go now).
    If, 5 years ago, anyone said that Microsoft would loose the dominance in the operating system space and Nokia in the Mobile phone space any time soon I’d have called them stupid but neither Microsoft nor Nokia saw the changes coming in the near future and paid no attention to the technology undercurrents. 5 years later Microsoft and Nokia are also rans in the smartphone market, by all accounts smart, integrated devices will (and are) causing the decline in the PC market.
    Interesting stats and facts here
    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-mobile-deck-2012-3#-15
    So whats this got to with politics, probably nothing but if things can turn around so dramatically for Microsoft and Nokia there is no reason to think that Abbott might find himself on the wrong side of the polls within 12 months.

  23. Thanks Peppy7 (126). The last thing we need is widespread uglyfication. Tends to turn people off accepting the changes in technology.

  24. OC – Senator Mark Bishop has been a Rudd bloke since the year dot. It is said that he and Alan Griffith from Vic have been the stirrers and leakers to the meedja of the Rudd challenge and the continual push.

    Puffy – I will play my cards just right – Dragons are such fantasmogorical and powerful creatures 😉

  25. run away ruawake?
    Pretty gutless when you can.t do anything about it , and called out to prove it.
    Stay with frank and circle jerk. Any time you wanna meet at coolum to prove it be my guest

  26. Thanks for the elec info, everyone. I shall turn off my screen when I leave it in future. (Obviously all off overnight).

    Not sure any of this will lower my elec bill, as my mother has an oil-filled heater going constantly, summer and winter. She needs it, at 93. 🙂

  27. Seems outrageous
    Abc saying refugee re think wtte 7 pm news

    All playing thd part for abnott

    As though abbott is the government

  28. lizzie @ 124

    On the same lines, anyone know how much power a computer uses compared with any other household appliance? Mine is on all day.

    Depends on the computer. At a guess between 50Watts (small notebook) – 2-300 watts (Desktop with the lot).

  29. I wonder how the classified the wars as ‘religious’? Do both sides have to think they are religious?

    For example, were Afghanistan and the two Iraq wars included? They would have been regarded as religous wars by those trying to get rid of the infidels.

    Buddhist monks immolating themselves with fire, and christians v the communists, were all significant elements of the Vietnam War.

  30. guytaur

    Now what did you want to go and give me that link, for? You’re trying to make me feel guilty for using a polluting, power hungry pc, aren’t you? Grrrrowwl.

  31. On a point of interest. Someone complained to me about NSW ALP putting Carr into the Senate. My reply was that he was a very emminent Australian and a far cry from the usual party officers/ union officials and ministerial assistants the party usually put in. I then had a look at all the NSW ALP senators since the Senate appointments referendum in 1977. Before Carr only 2 senators did not fiit into those criteria; Tom Wheelwright who replaced Loosley for 1 year in 1995 and, of course, Belinda Neil.
    The creme de la creme certainly finds its way into the Senate

  32. You may be interested to know that I’ve had the argument about declining Union representation in society versus 50% Union power in the ALP with a State President of one of the Unions.

    He said it’s fine with him if the ALP decide to reduce the level of representation and number of delegates of Unions at National Conferences and the like. However with that will go the level of financial contributions that Unions make to the ALP. Which is the nub of the problem for the ALP.

    Yes, we are a party built upon the foundations of Unionism, proud of our Union heritage. However we must also move with the times and acknowledge that the nature of the workforce and society in general has changed and it behoves the party, in my opinion, to change with it and seek to reflect it.

    I have long advocated both publically and privately that the ALP should be embracing those workers, such as sub-contractors, who once would have been part of a collective workforce employed by a major employer but who are now on their own as individual entities. Tradies also come to mind. Small Business as well because they are subject to the exigencies exerted upon them in the marketplace by their large, generally duopolistic competitors, and so conform in an almost traditional sense to the ‘little guy’ persona. So, you would think, natural congeners with the party of the little guy against the Big End of Town, the Labor Party.

    However, how to get there from where we are now with the Unions contributing the bulk of the funds to keep the ALP going. Also realising that many of the above-mentioned types who seemingly are a natural fit with the Labor Party, are instead staunch individualists and capitalists and identify instead with the Liberal Party, at one and the same time as this may be to their own ultimate detriment.

    Anyway, if anyone is able to build a bridge between the chasm I have identified, which will also see the survival of Australia’s only political party which will always stand up for the little guy, social equity and sensible Progressive policies, and Unionism without having to be beholden to the Unions, then drop me a line here. 🙂

  33. [ruawake
    Posted Saturday, June 9, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink
    Abbott’s rethink on refugees will backfire on him. He is pushing the refugee lobby into the hands of the ALP.]
    liar prove you are sick. Your isp, is from redfern

  34. lizzie

    You can use that to get tips on what to turn off on your computer.
    Do make good use of the Screen saver function. As others have said that is the power guzzler.

  35. “On the same lines, anyone know how much power a computer uses compared with any other household appliance? Mine is on all day.”

    Depends on the type and age of the computer, how much you are paying per kilowatt for power, etc. But on average most computers would probably cost between 2 cents and 5 cents to run per hour. The screen is the thing that uses most of the power. A lot of the newer computers use very little power.

    This web site has a calculator that may help:

    http://michaelbluejay.com/electricity/howmuch.html

  36. Senator Ursula Stephens from NSW is indeed a waste of parliamentary oxygen. However, she is the only Labor Senator that comes from the country, Goulburn to be precise, and her area of influence is Country Labor. She is supported by the Shoppies and is a devout Christian, hence Rudd supporter.

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