The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
Eden-Monaro was held by conservatives of various stripes for all but one term until 1943, the exception being Labor’s 40-vote win when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. Allan Fraser won the seat for Labor with the 1943 landslide and held it against the tide in 1949 and 1951. He was defeated in 1966 but was back in 1969, finally retiring in 1972. The loss of his personal vote almost saw the seat go against the trend of the 1972 election, with the Country Party overtaking their conservative rivals for the first time to come within 503 votes of victory. The Country Party again finished second in 1974, this time coming within 146 votes of defeating Labor member Bob Whan (whose son Steve unsuccessfully contested the seat in 1998 and 2001, and was later the state member for Monaro). However, 1975 saw the Liberals gain strongly at the expense of the Country Party as well as Labor, and their candidate Murray Sainsbury won the seat with a two-party margin of 5.6%. Sainsbury held the seat until the defeat of the Fraser government in 1983; the same fate befell his Labor successor, Jim Snow, who was swept out by a 9.2% swing when Labor lost office in 1996, and then Gary Nairn, who served as Special Minister of State from January 2006 until the November 2007 election defeat.
Labor’s successful candidate was Lieutenant-Colonel Mike Kelly, a military lawyer who had been credited with efforts to warn the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade about the AWB kickbacks scandal, and the Australian military about possible abuses at Abu Ghraib prison. Kelly was installed as candidate a week after the party’s national conference empowered the state executive to appoint candidates in 25 key seats over the heads of the local party branches. A member of the Right faction, he won immediate promotion to parliamentary secretary for defence support, shifting to the water portfolio in February 2009. After the 2010 election he was shifted to the agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio, which was criticised owing to Kelly’s status as the federal parliament’s only war veteran. He was restored to his earlier role in the December 2011 reshuffle.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Peter Hendy, a former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. The Nationals have reportedly approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them a “point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.
That quip of Albo’s was funny.
When he said he had brought to the House changes to the maritime legislation, including a ships Master’s right to shoot passengers, and that a Master had to be informed when a lunatic was coming onboard, Albo looked at Abbott and wtte said that in his case the last one would be useful.
Now qt commentators giving free advert for a current affair..drips
I briefly switched on the HoR streaming channel (thinking it was still QT) but only got Abbott doing his usual so I switched it off again. I see about 6 members on the Govt side so assume they’ve all gone off to govern the country.
Today I wrote to both Mr Thomson giving him my support and to my local member, Bert van Manen.
In my email to Mr van Manen I was somewhat critical of the tactics of the Opposition and the calibre of their front bench. I suggested he might like to read the BISONs or even the OECD report issued recently.
Needless to say my concerns were politely noted but not answered. He did say “……the opposition front bench, while I must respectfully disagree with your opinion of them…..” but he would say that, of course.
Another weasel non-response, but his Liberal predecessor used to do the same – Margaret May (I think she was). For one shining moment we had a Labor rep but, alas, he was a oncer.
re 151
Those provisions were being taken out of the Maritime legislation. Maybe there should be a special clause for Abbott about a Master being informed of a lunatic coming aboard.
[Rhiannon sorry for attack on own party]
She is head of the NSW Greens, she did not attack her own party?
[Centre for Advanced Journalism invites you to celebrate the publication of Australian Journalism Today to be launched by Mark Scott, Managing Director Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Wednesday 13 June at 6pm]
These events are free for any Bludger that wants to go along and politely ask Mr Scott a question or two about the role of the IPA, sorry, ABC in journalism.
[Tony Abbott: “At a human level I have a great deal of sympathy for member of Dobell” – How can this man face his God everyday]
Is Abbott really a Christian man? I know he is one of many faces whereas the PM seems to be a constant. She doesn’t change her story from one audience to audience and if she was really a liar she would be defending herself more. JG must really irritate Abbott who obviously realises he himself is everything he accuses her to be.
[Maybe there should be a special clause for Abbott about a Master being informed of a lunatic coming aboard.]
Would definitely be appropriate for the LNP end of year river cruise. But the list would be a long one.
:monkey:
Heffernan
Bernardii
Barnaby
BH
He is about as Christian as Vlad the Impaler.
From Alan Ramsey’s book The Way They Were: The View from the Hill of the 25 Years that Remade Australia:
[…here are the remarks for which the six MPs were each penalised an hour’s suspension this week {back in 2000}.
…
4) Abbott got his marching orders after moving in a threatening manner towards the Opposition benches just after labor’s Graham Edwards, a legless Vietnam veteran, had interjected: ‘You’re a disgrace.’]
I missed the beginning of Albo’s response. Judging from tweets and posts, it appears Abbott did not like the statement re Abbott’s conduct towards the vietnam vet.
Also is this correct?
[Latika Bourke @LatikaQT 4m
Noes 72 Ayes 62. Govt wins. #qt ENDS
View details · ]
Hunt you idoit why do you think the company that owns the aluminium smelter is Norsk Hydro.
Hydro – get it shorty? Hydro-electricity? Gettin a clue? Aluminium = solidifed electricity that nobody wants to buy.
So go back to sleep and write another thesis you will disown.
vic
Question put, 3:20:23 PM.
[Div No. 304], 3:20:30 PM to 3:28:35 PM, Ayes 69, Noes 72
Puff
I know what you mean, and I agree, but officially at least, Vlad was a Christian!
[Vlad Dracul was also a knight in the Order of the Dragon, a secret fraternity created in 1387 by the Emperor, sworn to uphold Christianity and defend the empire against the Islamic Turks]
http://www.vladtheimpaler.com/vlad_the_impaler_bio_001.htm
Victoria:
[Also is this correct?]
Yes, thank dog.
Thanks ru
I thought so. It seemed strange for it to be 72/62
Abbott must be getting some damning feedback re the tactics of the coalition towards Mr Thomson.
Sky can go on all they like. No body watches it.
I would say people have seen what is happening and are not happy. Locked in at the moment I would say.
Abbott is in it up to his armpits. PM above it all. That is why they are trying to drag her in.
I wonder if AA realises that most great leaders had a touch of megalomania in them.
Doyley
Agree re Sky news. Not sure how many people watch, but it is a very low figure.
It sounded to me as if she said Ayes 60-no, Noes 72. Which I thought was appropriate.
davidwh
Like Hitler and Pol Pot?
[Sky can go on all they like.]
Paul Murray hasn’t been holding back. Was scathing that Wilkie changed his mind on supporting Oakeshott’s censure motion, even though it was for a good, legal reason (it is not an indication of guilt not to talk to police).
davidwh
[I wonder if AA realises that most great leaders had a touch of megalomania in them.]
That’s possibly so but I doubt if Abbott will ever be a leader, great or otherwise.
And now we hear the Shadow Minister for Climate Action, Environment and Heritage arguing against pretty much all three.
[davidwh
Posted Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 3:37 pm | Permalink
I wonder if AA realises that most great leaders had a touch of megalomania in them.]
And they are??
Victoria yes them as well.
The Sunshine Coast Regional council will not be paying a cent of carbon tax for their waste disposal. Why?
They spend a mere $660,000 to capture it and use it as a power source. Why don’t other councils do the same?
Good Afternoon Bludgers!
Aside from the obvious, that the Opposition has more grubs in it than a weevil-filled Wheat Silo, can I just ask a question about the Privileges Committee?
The Privileges Committee has decided to conduct an investigation into the leak overnight of the proceedings of the Committee. Is it able to compel journalists to appear before it so that they may be told who has leaked the confidential information to them?
I am asking this as I am not sure whether the journalists can refuse to divulge their sources when it involves behaviour within the walls of parliament about a parliamentary committee?
Thank you in advance. 🙂
Maybe, but I don’t think “we care about him and that’s why we want him booted out of parliament” is going to work.
[victoria
Posted Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink
davidwh
Like Hitler and Pol Pot?]
[davidwh
Posted Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 3:41 pm | Permalink
Victoria yes them as well.]
So, you are saying that “great leaders” include Hitler and Pol Pot?
Or perhaps your definition of “great” is different to mine.
I suspect you are correct Allan even if he does manage to be PM one day I doubt he will be a great leader.
Gawd. Pyne looks like a mad attack dog
[So, are there still enough members in the house to actually pass an SSO?? It takes 76 doesn’t it?]
Yes. It’s all about the Opposition getting into Hansard its lies and abuse under Parliamentary Privilege.
Chances are that, if the government is still there in 12.5 sitting days’ time, it will still be there when the next election’s called; so all these rants, and pathetic questions, will be there in perpetuity, as will the video record – especially for biographers, historians, film marker, students of politics and history etc who read/ view them.
I’m glad Abbo get “megalomaniac” and those last sentences into Hansard for perpetuity.
No I don’t consider either Hitler or Pol Pot to be great leaders however that doesn’t disqualify them from expressing megalomaniac tendencies.
[Dopey media believe his “sympathy”…qt commentary so gullible…]
joe2 – they don’t really believe but that is the way they want to portray him. The agenda is that Labor cannot win the next election. They want the Libs in so he will be protected.
c@tmomma
I dont know if a journalist can be compelled to reveal its sources in this instance
The journalists may choose to not answer the privliges committee’s questions but they would then be in contempt of parliament. The committee may recommend that the journalists be gaoled and the house would vote on this. It is 60 years since the HoR gaoled a journalist and at the time it was thiught to be such a disgrace that it would never again be attempted.
Dreyfus taking man-boy Hunt apart piece by piece. Hardly a contest.
[Is Abbott really a Christian man? I know he is one of many faces whereas the PM seems to be a constant. ]
If you look at the ‘actual’ history of Christianity, you’ll see Abbott is made of the exact stock they have always shown. The true history is quite appalling, filled with violence against all foes, filled with misleading propaganda.
Not attacking church members on this blog, but for those who have a penchant for facts, you’d be quite surprised how brutal the christians (and formerly their Jewish predecessors) were through history.
is this correct?
Latika Bourke @LatikaQT 4m Noes 72 Ayes 62. Govt wins. #qt ENDS View details ·
Was that a bigger win than normal , if so why was that
[Re Eden-Monaro: Don’t think Bob Whan is still the member for Monaro.]
No, he’s not. A leftover reference from my 2010 entry, now corrected.
The commmittee could probably try and compel a journalist to divulge their source, but they’d be unlikely to because it’d be a really bad look. The recently passed journalists’ shield laws don’t apply to parliamentary committees and the House could choose to punish any witness who refuses to appear before a committee or answer questions if it wished to.
Most likely the Chair will just end up reminding members of the importance of keeping committee meetings confidential.
It is so sad to see Australia’s image overseas being trashed by the opposition and the mainstream media.
When most “news” comprises the sordid happenings at the moment, how can an observer in another country appreciate all the good that Australia has to offer?
Where are the good news stories about our successes, our triumphs?
Where are the stories about the countless “local heroes” who do good in so many ways? In unpaid service to others? In creating successful businesses that employ others? In going about their everyday employment and in the process contributing to society?
Where are the stories about legislation enacted by the parliament that will improve our lives for years to come?
The list of good things is endless.
At the moment it seems that the morons, self-seekers and those who want to dictate the lives of others are in control.
It is time for those people of integrity in the opposition and the mainstream media to make their voices heard.
Regardless of the results of the next election, Australia cannot continue on this self-destructive path for much longer without serious damage occurring to the fabric of Australian society.
May be in a past life abnott was in the cruisades,
Yes but also good christians where thrown to the lions, for sport.
Stand by for an intelligent and erudite response from the slug like Baldwin.
a good reply to costello from rob o
Robert Oakeshott MP @OakeyMP
Response to Mr Costello here; http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-murky-legacy-of-past-parliaments-20120524-1z6xh.html
tom_watson@tom_watson
Willful blindness: when a leader turns a blind eye. http://www.iveybusinessjournal.com/topics/leadership/willful-blindness-when-a-leader-turns-a-blind-eye my must read of the day.
my say @ 189
it was noes 72 ayes 69
[Yes but also good christians where thrown to the lions, for sport.]
Actually. MySay, they weren’t.
Gawd, my member now talking and I’m counting his fibs to see if they equal the number in his weekly spot in the local paper.