Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.

The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).

Further polling snippets:

• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.

• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.

• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.


• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.

David Killick of The Mercury reports nine candidates have nominated for the Tasmanian Liberal Party’s preselection, to be determined on June 16. They are incumbents David Bushby and Richard Colbeck, together with “trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler, vineyard owner Sarah Courtney, Launceston Chamber of Commerce staffer Kristen Finnigan, business manager David Fry, Hobart businesswoman Sue Hickey, business development manager Jane Howlett and senior political adviser Don Morris”. Morris is a former chief-of-staff to the state Opposition Leader, Will Hodgman.

• Angus Taylor has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed the retiring Alby Schultz in Hume, winning 26 out of 33 votes in a ballot of delegates from local party branches. Taylor is a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete who had the backing of Schultz and Tony Abbott, and is also said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull. As detailed by the Yass Tribune, other candidates were Ross Hampton, an olive-grower and former adviser to Peter Reith, Ian Campbell and Brendan Nelson; Rick Mandelson, a Mittagong-based chartered accountant; and Ed Storey, a Yass-based grazier.

• Peter Hendy, former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith, has been confirmed as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. Leslie White of the Weekly Times reports that the Nationals have approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them “a point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.

Amy Kelly of City North News reports that Brian Nally, “local activist and president of the Kalinga Wooloowin Residents Association”, will be a contestant for LNP preselection in Lilley, together with the candidate from 2010, Rod McGarvie, and – possibly – Clive Palmer.

• The Barossa Herald reports Tom Zorich has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for the South Australian seat of Wakefield. Zorich is a local sports store retailer and former Gawler councillor, and a former player and club president of the Central Districts Football Club.

Richard Willingham of The Age presents a helpful list of Liberal preselection candidates for five Labor-held seats, and places particular emphasis on Jagajaga hopeful Nick McGowan, who is press secretary to state Planning Minister Matthew Guy, served as Ted Baillieu’s media director at the 2006 election campaign, and was a civilian peacekeeper who served in Afghanistan, Liberia and Burundi. Phil Barresi, former Deakin MP and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has decided against nominating again, with John Pesutto, an adviser to Ted Baillieu, widely rated the front-runner. Corangamite: Marcus Dripps, Sarah Henderson, Rod Nockles. Chisholm: Blair Barker, Adrianne Fleming, Mark Lane, John Nguyen, Nicholas Tragas, Theo Zographos. Deakin: Terry Barnes, Michelle Frazer, Phillip Fusco, Andrew Munroe, Simon Olsen, John Pesutto. Jagajaga: Nick McGowan, Mathew Whiffin. La Trobe: Michael Keane, Sue McMillan (Knox councillor and former mayor), Martin Spratt, Jason Wood, Mark Vershuur.

Online voting has begun for the primary preselection process by which Labor will choose its candidate for the Sydney lord mayoral election, part of a process in which half the vote will be determined by participating voters who declare they are not members of a rival party. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports Chinatown restaurateur Jonathan Yee has reached a preference deal with “legal type Damian Spruce and refugee agitator Linda Scott”. Another candidate, Cassandra Wilkinson, founder of independent radio station FBi and wife of former state minister Paul Macleay, has accused Yee of branch stacking in a bid to strengthen his position in the 50% share of the preselection vote reserved for party members. Wilkinson and Cameron Murphy, NSW Civil Liberties chief, are preferencing each other. How to vote cards are distributed along with candidate statements to the 90,000 Sydney eligible residents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,622 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. For the L/NP, anyone who gets in their way, or can be used by them to get or stay in power is nothing more than roadkill.

  2. The Escort Industry must be close to in recession nowadays if this is the type of publicity they get.

    Could you imagine being a visitor to one of these establishments (named in the FWA Report) and wondering who’ll be next to have their private sexual encounters exposed in parliament, the Daily Telegraph, and the egregious ACA… for money? Or worse, just for some short term political end?

    This will be a disaster for the industry.

  3. Interesting. i just watched the Thomson presser. Didn’t seem to me like he was “pleading” with anyone and he seems in pretty good shape. Not really what i would expect from someone quivering in their boots that they are about to be found out as a liar and thief after months of extreme pressure.

    Anyway, sent him an email suggesting that he should hang in, and do himself a favor and make sure he is around to see :monkey: and his rabble lose in late 2013.

  4. [@samanthahawley

    On commercial radio, ACA producer Grant Williams says re interview with former prostitute “i don’t think she’d do it for a cappuccino.”]


    But Grant williams says “at this stage of the game we haven’t paid anyone and haven’t broadcast anything.”]

  5. New post at The Daily Derp

    Debunking The Thomson Allegations
    [As mentioned above, none of these discrepancies is proof positive that Mr Thomson is innocent, however it does cast a serious element of doubt over the allegations. For as long as these elements of doubt exist, Mr Thomson cannot be convicted of anything.

    What would be more helpful than the MSM continually hounding Mr Thomson would be if they bothered to find out exactly why Kathy Jackson’s partner, Michael Lawler is on “long leave” from the FWA.

    The Derp believes that that would shed a lot more light on the story than their current witch hunt will achieve. ]

    (Special thanks to Independent Australia, George Bludger and Space Kidette for their contributions to this article).

  6. How many people Thomson’s $6000 has killed. I bet Howard AWB’s $290M bribe to Saddam Hussein killed ten of 1000s, including Australians

  7. [I just would wish Morgan would give the game away and confuse us all less. The 58-42 was when respondents allocated their own preference, the 55-45 when the preference flow from the last election was used. Your methodology was quite correct.]

    Voters still have not received their money in their BANK accounts yet!, the old back pocket syndrome will change their minds.

  8. I’ve started a long overdue project, transcribing my grandmother’s recipes from tatty, aged exercise books (the present one is dated “Port Fairy, 1936”) onto computer.

    As the Methodist Minister’s wife, across several parishes over thirty years plus, she had to serve morning and afternoon teas every day of her life, so she collected recipes avidly.

    I’ve just written out one for “Mrs Price’s Kisses” – I love the names. She’s very careful to attribute recipes to “Mrs Bracks” “Mrs Smith” “Mrs Crothers” etc.

    There is, of course, “Depression Cake”. There’s “Savoury Balls”. Recipes for furnishing polish.

    And, stuck between the pages, invitations to parish events – a talk about Mr D. Hall’s trip to India (with slides, of course); a ticket to “The Gondoliers” at Prahran City Hall (1961)…

  9. Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition at their grubby work.

    [Mike Kelly MP ‏@MikeKellyMP

    Was going 2 go on Sky’s “The Nation” program 2 talk about Afghanistan etc but Coalition wouldn’t agree 2 a pair 4 15mins. Sorry to Sky team]

  10. Puff

    If Slipper is cleared re cabcharges, he needs to get back in the chair. The rabble need to be put back in line

  11. zoomster,
    That is lovely, what a wonderful collection of memories. You should just scan it all in, and offer copies for sale as an online book.

  12. Does any one remember when q t was as boring as ironing, i do it was sort of in the background

    Noise, when folding 6 doz nappies and iron 21 shirts, school and work.

    I wish for those days again,
    I will be telling my grandchildren never to vote liberal

    In fact the 6 year old has been told already,

    This acccount of our history i have written on my diary, for them to read


  13. Burn the Blacks Chant

    Israeli racists gangs in Tel Aviv call for special internment camps for blacks in Israel and the crowds chant” burn the blacks”

    Organised by a neo-fascists party..The National Union..gangs ran amok in Tel Aviv attacking blacks and calling for them to”burn ” see pic

    And this from :Mondoweiss” a daily blog from a brilliant young NY Jewish writer
    shades of the Third Reich in Tel Aviv !!

  14. Ootz said:

    [So Fran, are you saying the punters existential angst is based on ‘she lied’ rather than ‘it will hurt’?]

    Of course not. Existential angst is based on fears that one’s identity, or that of ‘the nation’ will change in some way that is profoundly unacceptable. The claims around the carbon “tax” by the Liberals centre of suggestions that towns and industries will be “wiped off the map”; that a “greedy/lying/profligate and “green left” government of “watermelons in league with the UN/world government” will use the “tax” to do “income redistribution” and fund the 3rd world & etc …

    As bizarre as these claims are, the claim that “it’s a tax” (and therefore) “she lied” is the connection between these RW populist dystopian fantasies and the parts of reality that the rst of us see.

    It’s a tax/carbon tax and she lied are memes that acquire life as a consequence of their confection by parties seeking to trade on fears in the populace about the persistence of the world as they accept it.

    The idea that there is someone called “Juliar” who is untrustworthy and shifty is located in this alleged repudiated claim and for the angst-ridden, this in turn defines all else associated with her regime. Thus, whatever people feel about Rudd, this act seems to be a crime against honour, evidence of her willingness to bend her knee before illegitimate and/or unknowable entities, in the former case, “faceless men” and in the latter case, Bob Brown (“the Real Prime Minister”) and “watermelons”.

    This tea-party-style meme is entirely derivative — a staple of US politics mapped to Australian circumstances, but the beauty of it from a reactionary perspective is that one need not be a Larouchite or sign up to the more Moncktonesque elements to utter the slogans and vote against one’s interests.

    [I always assumed ‘she lied’ is a vacuous political slogan.]

    It is, but vacuous slogans acquire currency when they are located in real and substantive angst within a given community. “Stop the boats” reflects angst over Australia being taken over by “queue-jumping” refugees who “are coming here to go on the dole” and “take our jobs” and “turn Australia into a Muslim country”. Most people realise that these claims make them seem r@cist but the slogan can be presented as reflecting concerns over “people smuggling” and “kids drowning at sea”, and so the vacuous and disingenuous slogan acquires a life of its own in politics.

    The failure of the ALP to spike these slogans (and others like pink batts and BER fiasco) — to delegitimise them expressly and therewith those most closely associated with asserting them — does lie at the heart of their inability to tell any other story about themselves in the parts of public discourse where they are hurting worst.

    In the aftermath of the achievement of minority government, legitimacy was always going to be a key benchmark, and the first duty of the regime was to tell a story about its rule located in the supremacy of the parliamentary consensus and the service of the consensus inter alia within the public on the need to price carbon emissions.

    For Gillard to say that she was “happy to call it a tax” was a terrible mistake. It’s cited by defenders of Juliar everytime someone like me objects. It’s cited when I contact the ABC to complain about them verballing the regime. That she thought this might be the lesser evil compared with setting the record straight is simply unfathomable.

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