Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.

The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).

Further polling snippets:

• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.

• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.

• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.

Preselection:

• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.

David Killick of The Mercury reports nine candidates have nominated for the Tasmanian Liberal Party’s preselection, to be determined on June 16. They are incumbents David Bushby and Richard Colbeck, together with “trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler, vineyard owner Sarah Courtney, Launceston Chamber of Commerce staffer Kristen Finnigan, business manager David Fry, Hobart businesswoman Sue Hickey, business development manager Jane Howlett and senior political adviser Don Morris”. Morris is a former chief-of-staff to the state Opposition Leader, Will Hodgman.

• Angus Taylor has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed the retiring Alby Schultz in Hume, winning 26 out of 33 votes in a ballot of delegates from local party branches. Taylor is a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete who had the backing of Schultz and Tony Abbott, and is also said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull. As detailed by the Yass Tribune, other candidates were Ross Hampton, an olive-grower and former adviser to Peter Reith, Ian Campbell and Brendan Nelson; Rick Mandelson, a Mittagong-based chartered accountant; and Ed Storey, a Yass-based grazier.

• Peter Hendy, former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith, has been confirmed as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. Leslie White of the Weekly Times reports that the Nationals have approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them “a point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.

Amy Kelly of City North News reports that Brian Nally, “local activist and president of the Kalinga Wooloowin Residents Association”, will be a contestant for LNP preselection in Lilley, together with the candidate from 2010, Rod McGarvie, and – possibly – Clive Palmer.

• The Barossa Herald reports Tom Zorich has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for the South Australian seat of Wakefield. Zorich is a local sports store retailer and former Gawler councillor, and a former player and club president of the Central Districts Football Club.

Richard Willingham of The Age presents a helpful list of Liberal preselection candidates for five Labor-held seats, and places particular emphasis on Jagajaga hopeful Nick McGowan, who is press secretary to state Planning Minister Matthew Guy, served as Ted Baillieu’s media director at the 2006 election campaign, and was a civilian peacekeeper who served in Afghanistan, Liberia and Burundi. Phil Barresi, former Deakin MP and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has decided against nominating again, with John Pesutto, an adviser to Ted Baillieu, widely rated the front-runner. Corangamite: Marcus Dripps, Sarah Henderson, Rod Nockles. Chisholm: Blair Barker, Adrianne Fleming, Mark Lane, John Nguyen, Nicholas Tragas, Theo Zographos. Deakin: Terry Barnes, Michelle Frazer, Phillip Fusco, Andrew Munroe, Simon Olsen, John Pesutto. Jagajaga: Nick McGowan, Mathew Whiffin. La Trobe: Michael Keane, Sue McMillan (Knox councillor and former mayor), Martin Spratt, Jason Wood, Mark Vershuur.

Online voting has begun for the primary preselection process by which Labor will choose its candidate for the Sydney lord mayoral election, part of a process in which half the vote will be determined by participating voters who declare they are not members of a rival party. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports Chinatown restaurateur Jonathan Yee has reached a preference deal with “legal type Damian Spruce and refugee agitator Linda Scott”. Another candidate, Cassandra Wilkinson, founder of independent radio station FBi and wife of former state minister Paul Macleay, has accused Yee of branch stacking in a bid to strengthen his position in the 50% share of the preselection vote reserved for party members. Wilkinson and Cameron Murphy, NSW Civil Liberties chief, are preferencing each other. How to vote cards are distributed along with candidate statements to the 90,000 Sydney eligible residents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,622 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. victoria, I think those concerns will only encourage Abbott. He’ll be thinking that a bit more of this and we’ll get a byelection and maybe government. 4545

    But if he is loosing his grip o n people being on side with him, after all he wants to be pm
    First and foremost.’

    Its about time ust,’took to the streets and started”protesting,

  2. Okay, so on calculations based on preferences from previous elections, that Morgan F2F poll is about 54.5 (-1) / 45.5 (+1).

    Slowly getting there.

  3. [Fit & Proper SpaceK ‏@SpaceKidette

    I’ll believe the press gallery have rediscovered their hearts when they walk away from the next Thomson rant by Abbott. #auspol]

  4. Silent protesti g with banners, are often seen by people who also appreciate

    Calmness and commonsence

    Its about time ust,’took to the streets and started”protesting,, in a quite, passive way, just standing
    With posters

  5. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 13s
    Further, Ch 9 rejects charge of ‘grubby journalism’ saying that would have been not letting Craig #Thomson examine the new claims.]
    View details ·
    [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
    Channel 9 says ‘no one has received any payment from A Current Affair.’ #thomson]
    View details ·

  6. [that Morgan F2F poll is about 54.5 (-1) / 45.5 (+1).]

    Von Kirsdarke, the headline figure given was 55/45. Be mindful that the Morgan F2F do slightly inflate the Labor vote so the 55 / 45 would be about 57/ 43 in the other polls.

  7. BB
    Abbott wants Thomson out of his seat, if it is in a pine box, who cares? Abbott would see it as Thomson’s own fault for not resigning.

    The MSM would be glad of the drama, sells more papers.

  8. Many many years ago my then occupation caused me to visit several Sydney brothels to assist in interviews with prostitutes. At one establishment the girls and counter staff wereall agog at thefact that one of Australias then best known personalities had been a visitor the previous night. What was interesting to me was that there had been several media reports including TV coverage of the fact that that person was in the US, had been for several days and would be for several more days.
    Take the latest allegations with a large grain of salt!

  9. [Further, Ch 9 rejects charge of ‘grubby journalism’ ]

    One for the “they would say that wouldn’t they” category.

    Frankly, I am surprised that ACA or Today Tonight had not dug up a so called ‘escort’ earlier. Unless, they had her on ice waiting for some opportune time.

  10. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
    Exact words from 9 ‘no-on has received any payment from A Current Affair.’
    View details]

  11. Son of foro,
    The Liberals rooted out any of their members with a conscience ages ago. What do you think the pock-marked wall in the courtyard is for?

  12. Who- says bbp

    William does it the same as von

    So bbp

    You are still a happy clapper for abbnot and is merry men itake it,

    u

    Not joi ig twitter then to let aca know what a lot of us feel.

  13. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
    Exact words from 9 ‘no-on has received any payment from A Current Affair.’
    View details]
    Latika
    Is that with a silent ‘yet’?

  14. MC

    [Many many years ago my then occupation caused me to visit several Sydney brothels to assist in interviews with prostitutes.]

    ‘Interviews’ eh? Nice work if you can get it.

  15. The MSM would be glad of the drama, sells more papers. Puff sia,

    But in the long run wil l it only to the rusted ons,

    I get the feeling its in the i am over it basket,

    Except for abbnot and loberal supporters,

    There is close to 50 percent decent people out there,

    Thank god most of us here can hold our heads high.’

  16. I suppose the national interest will be expanded to questions about whether Mr Thomson dresses to the right or to the left and was the sex industry worker concerned able to describe in detail the tattoo of Mr Abbott that Mr Thomson has on his bum?

  17. The sad part about Abbott creating chaos is that Labor is doing good stuff this morning. ED Husic is fielding an IT thing and others are out and about working on good stuff but all lost because the media focus is drawn only to where the Oppn wants it.

  18. [Who- says bbp

    William does it the same as von]

    My Say – Nothing to do with any political bias – the headline number of 55 either came from William or Morgan themselves. VK is effectively right in his calculations also. It is just that Morgan’s face to face polls have a long record of inflating the ALP vote – it is a built in bias. For example when the ALP were leading 58-42 on Newspoll, Neilsen, etc during the Rudd years – Morgan were showing 61 and 62. The bias is well known and long standing – Newspoll, Essential and Neilsen are more reliable.

  19. Exact words from 9 ‘no-on has received any payment from A Current Affair.’

    Yet, Thomson says ACA told him they had paid for the interview with the prostitute. He also said that ACA had offered a substantial sum to his wife for an interview.

  20. @blackburnpseph

    Where does it say 55-45? I thought the headline said 58-42.

    The primary votes from that are 45.5 LNP 32.0 ALP 10.5 GRN and 12.0 IND, so I gathered that about 80% of Greens votes and about 40% of Independent votes would go to Labor from there.

    I wish Morgan would be less confusing.

  21. If the DT is the source for the $60,000, ’nuff said. It is like their writing on AGW.

    It could mean something, any thing, or nothing.

  22. Von Kirsdarke

    I just would wish Morgan would give the game away and confuse us all less. The 58-42 was when respondents allocated their own preference, the 55-45 when the preference flow from the last election was used. Your methodology was quite correct.

  23. I’d presume DT just made up the $60K. Unlikely ACA would’ve told how much they were paying the escort to either Thomson or external media organisations.

    The ACA press release is spin of the the worst type. Stop giving PR people so much work!

  24. [I’m starting to smell a rat on the $60k story.]
    I’m smelling a rat that a hooker would go on TV with her story for nothing.

  25. News 24 Just confirmed the ACA denial. Their statement was that ACA says it has paid no one.
    So the whole rumour about a paid prostitute could be false.

  26. ACA’s “fresh claim”. WTF? To say the allegation that Thomson with a hooker is “fresh” is like claiming the fish fingers are “fresh”

  27. Gary I think we just have to accept that we can’t take anything at face value and assume basically everyone is telling porkies at some level.

  28. [I’m smelling a rat that a hooker would go on TV with her story for nothing.]

    Prostitute is a verb as well as a noun …..

  29. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 11m
    ‘Received’ is not ‘offered.’]

    [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 7m
    True also. RT @demonspofforth: @latikambourke and “a current affair” is not the same as “Channel 9”]
    View details ·
    [ John Psaltis @JohnPsaltis 9m
    @latikambourke And not received ‘yet’ is also not received
    Retweeted by latikambourke]
    View details ·

  30. Can we get the UN Security Council & The International Court of Justice at The Hague to investigate #Thomson as well. Why not.

  31. Jancice2
    HIS WIFE!
    ACA offered money for an i/v with THOMSON’S WIFE???
    As if the poor woman has not been through enough!

    VULTURE SCUMBAG BAHSTARDS.

  32. [Can we get the UN Security Council & The International Court of Justice at The Hague to investigate #Thomson as well. Why not.]

    A fact finding mission by Kofi Annan to the streets of Wyong …

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