Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.

The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).

Further polling snippets:

• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.

• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.

• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.

Preselection:

• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.

• David Killick of The Mercury reports nine candidates have nominated for the Tasmanian Liberal Party’s preselection, to be determined on June 16. They are incumbents David Bushby and Richard Colbeck, together with “trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler, vineyard owner Sarah Courtney, Launceston Chamber of Commerce staffer Kristen Finnigan, business manager David Fry, Hobart businesswoman Sue Hickey, business development manager Jane Howlett and senior political adviser Don Morris”. Morris is a former chief-of-staff to the state Opposition Leader, Will Hodgman.

• Angus Taylor has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed the retiring Alby Schultz in Hume, winning 26 out of 33 votes in a ballot of delegates from local party branches. Taylor is a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete who had the backing of Schultz and Tony Abbott, and is also said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull. As detailed by the Yass Tribune, other candidates were Ross Hampton, an olive-grower and former adviser to Peter Reith, Ian Campbell and Brendan Nelson; Rick Mandelson, a Mittagong-based chartered accountant; and Ed Storey, a Yass-based grazier.

• Peter Hendy, former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith, has been confirmed as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. Leslie White of the Weekly Times reports that the Nationals have approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them “a point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.

• Amy Kelly of City North News reports that Brian Nally, “local activist and president of the Kalinga Wooloowin Residents Association”, will be a contestant for LNP preselection in Lilley, together with the candidate from 2010, Rod McGarvie, and – possibly – Clive Palmer.

• The Barossa Herald reports Tom Zorich has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for the South Australian seat of Wakefield. Zorich is a local sports store retailer and former Gawler councillor, and a former player and club president of the Central Districts Football Club.

• Richard Willingham of The Age presents a helpful list of Liberal preselection candidates for five Labor-held seats, and places particular emphasis on Jagajaga hopeful Nick McGowan, who is press secretary to state Planning Minister Matthew Guy, served as Ted Baillieu’s media director at the 2006 election campaign, and was a civilian peacekeeper who served in Afghanistan, Liberia and Burundi. Phil Barresi, former Deakin MP and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has decided against nominating again, with John Pesutto, an adviser to Ted Baillieu, widely rated the front-runner. Corangamite: Marcus Dripps, Sarah Henderson, Rod Nockles. Chisholm: Blair Barker, Adrianne Fleming, Mark Lane, John Nguyen, Nicholas Tragas, Theo Zographos. Deakin: Terry Barnes, Michelle Frazer, Phillip Fusco, Andrew Munroe, Simon Olsen, John Pesutto. Jagajaga: Nick McGowan, Mathew Whiffin. La Trobe: Michael Keane, Sue McMillan (Knox councillor and former mayor), Martin Spratt, Jason Wood, Mark Vershuur.

• Online voting has begun for the primary preselection process by which Labor will choose its candidate for the Sydney lord mayoral election, part of a process in which half the vote will be determined by participating voters who declare they are not members of a rival party. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports Chinatown restaurateur Jonathan Yee has reached a preference deal with “legal type Damian Spruce and refugee agitator Linda Scott”. Another candidate, Cassandra Wilkinson, founder of independent radio station FBi and wife of former state minister Paul Macleay, has accused Yee of branch stacking in a bid to strengthen his position in the 50% share of the preselection vote reserved for party members. Wilkinson and Cameron Murphy, NSW Civil Liberties chief, are preferencing each other. How to vote cards are distributed along with candidate statements to the 90,000 Sydney eligible residents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,622 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. kezza2,

    No. He looked ok. Told them that if they had any information to add to the matter to send it to any one of nine enquiries.

    But how he is fronting up to media and what he is like behind the scenes ar two different things.

  2. [May be all tweeters tweet 9 and indicate not watching.]

    In my own ineffectual way I have set up an #aca_no_way hashtag to try to do just this.

  3. bg, or impose a fine. They can also just agree to a motion acknowledging a person has committed a contempt.

    As to whether Grattan will be called before the committee, I find that unlikely. Most likely the chair will make inquiries and the committee will remind members of the importance of keeping the internal deliberations of private committee meetings private.

  4. bb

    Careful what you post. Jonathan Holmes will start following just to see how many followers there are and their comments.

  5. Whomever did the leaking to Old Coke Bottles would probably be better off making a full confession and making the appropriate apologies for having a big mouth. Better than being found out and suffering the stiff penalties that could be brought to bear for such an offence.

  7. BH @4453 It was me! With your permission I’ll keep your comment stored on my site with the pome and post I wrote about this. It seems as simple a way as any of starting a list. It was actually joe2 who made the first move, and I followed up, so I’m not sure how he feels about at least making our comments more than a gesture if someone or something much bigger than us doesn’t step in, and real need arises.

    http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/2012/05/23/yes-i-do-believe-him-but-have-doubts-about-her/

  8. Krzza not rattled at all , just very sad,

    Not any of the below

    thrown into a state of agitated confusion; (`rattled’ is an informal term) flustered, hot and bothered, perturbed colloquialism – a colloquial expression; characteristic of spoken or written communication that seeks to imitate informal speech discomposed – having your composure disturbed; “looked about with a wandering and discomposed air”

  9. Janice I think there are many people out there who have no worries about which party governs providing they govern in what they believe to be in the best interests of the country and of course themselves. I think many are frustrated by this minority government and negative opposition and won’t change until they get a chance to end it one way or the other. Sadly I think the country will tread water at best until at least the next election.

  11. Prof Helen Partridge at Queensland Universtity want regular twitter users to do a study about the told of twitter in our lives.

  12. davidwh

    You must have missed the meme. This country is not treading water. The OECD gives us tick of being best in world

  13. Maybe the lady saw CT’s “Wog” turn to “Woollongong”.

    If we are talking a high class lady, she would be earning $thousands per week.

    $60,000 represents only a fraction of her year’s income and her reputation trashed. She would have to go onto hiding.

    ACA have bought the TV story of the century far too cheap.

    Indicates lady concerned is from the other side of the business.

  15. [Bushfire ‏@BushfireBill

    Are you watching the destruction of Thomson @jonaholmesmw ? Or are you waiting for someone ELSE to do something too? #aca_no_way #mediawatch]

  17. Thanks SK

    His voice sounded fine. Not wobbly – like you expect to hear from someone “clearly rattled”

    The ABC can’t even read a newspaper article properly. They just reported that the details of the leak from the PC was that Kathy Jackson and Marco Bolano may be asked to front the committee. I mean, this is just BS.

    Jackson and Bolano have publicly ASKED to appear before the committee.

    The detail leaked was this:
    [The committee met last night and resolved to write to manager of opposition business Christopher Pyne asking him to specify where Mr Thomson had allegedly deliberately misled. Labor members would not agree to a Coalition push for the committee to advertise immediately for witnesses and submissions.

    The committee agreed to ask Mr Thomson and a Liberal, Craig Kelly, to respond to allegations they failed to comply with the requirements of the members’ interests register.]

    Not one mention of this by the ABC, even though they could have revealed it by the usual means. i.e. “it is reported that . . .”

    I’m absolutely sick to death of msm incompetence.

  18. [BC reporting that he was clearly rattled.]

    I missed the first sentence but I was surprised at the rest of it. I would not have had the courage to front that screaming pack of donkeys and speak clearly and emphatically but somehow he did. He did the right thing by walking away while they were all still squealing and braying.

  19. Synchronisation of stories meeting completed….back to you rogering

    [Mark Scott ‏@abcmarkscott
    Just had a long chat with @chriskkenny explaining the ABC’s approach to editorial decision-making around contentious issues. Saturday’s Oz.]

  20. [I missed the first sentence but I was surprised at the rest of it. I would not have had the courage to front that screaming pack of donkeys and speak clearly and emphatically but somehow he did. He did the right thing by walking away while they were all still squealing and braying.]

    Hit them where it hurts. Twitterers out there: Join the hashtag #aca_no_way

  22. Has the ATO (tax office) been notified of the $60,000 payment.

    Does the lady have an ABN?

    Has ACA reported the payment to the ATO?

    When/where was the payment made?

    Was it in a brown paper bag?

  24. There was a young whore of St Kilda
    TV gave her much money, which thrilled her
    She said “my this is nice”
    And for that kind of price
    She’d say Jesus himself had once filled her.

  25. BH,

    The media rat pack haven’t got it into their thick skulls that by doing live crosses we see everything they see and can form our own opinions both on the intereviewee’s statements and on the subsequent commentary they provide.

    And the noise is gathering that we don’t like the fact that they are skewing the news to suit theirs (or someone elses) opinion. We know we are being screwed and we are vocal about not liking it.

    Their arrogance has them stand there with their arrogance and insist we know nothing about journalism. The point is we don’t need to know about journalism but we do know that what they’re dishing up is pure bullshit.

  26. By definition parliament should not be able to imprison anyone for 12 months or more. Otherwise the less reputable parliamentary parties (eg the LNP) could stack the privileges committee when in government and effectively get people kicked out on the basis of the constitution.

  29. [ All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

    – Edmund Burke. ]

    And women. However, it’s time to speak up in support of Mr Thomson and condemn the filthy tactics used by the Opposition.

    I say to him: Hang in there, comrade. Chin up. And sue the bastards ’til their eyes pop!

  31. [Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM 2m
    Do you reckon @TonyAbbottMHR and @JoeHockey will acknowledge this big endorsement of the Australian economy? #goodnewshaters]

  32. Our daughter just sent this through about MSM and how differently they can be seen

    http://instagr.am/p/K_famgwJPd/

    BB – I’ll find your hashtag, thanks.

    SK – Middleton, from her tweets this morning, seems to be feeling troubled by the scrum so let’s hope she can use some influence. Her report on SBS last night didn’t mention Thomson and I think that was deliberate on her part. They did a short piece later in the bulletin but not by her.

  33. If i lived on the mainland i would be letting 9 know with a phone call what i think.

    But it the cost of a local call for u all

  34. BB – I’m still learning twitter thing. I’ve got the #aca_no_way but how do I respond to it. Do I do it on my page under @BushfireBill or on the hashtag somehow. Taa in advance

  35. Scringler Posted Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

    – Edmund Burke.

    And women. However, it’s time to speak up in support of Mr Thomson and condemn the filthy tactics used by the Opposition.

    I say to him: Hang in there, comrade. Chin up. And sue the bastards ’til their eyes pop!

    Well then in this case is any o e ringing his electorate office in support

  36. [Fake Chris Pyne @FakeChrisPyne 2h
    ACA paying prostitute $60K to say she slept with Thomson? Well for $60K, I’d sleep with our whole front bench! Except Sophie Mirabella.. #Ew]

  37. [Concera Vota ‏@conceravota

    Interesting opps will likely ‘believe’ a 7yo identification when Pyne’s memory on Ashby doesn’t even extend week. Alzheimer’s Pyne]

    Love this one. A question for QT today?

  38. For those who missed it this was posted earlier.

    [In the latest Morgan Poll L-NP support is 58% (down 1% since last week’s face-to-face Morgan Poll) compared to the ALP’s 42% (up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend, May 19/20, 2012.

    Today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows the L-NP primary vote is 45.5% (down 0.5%) still well ahead of the ALP 32% (up 1.5%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 10.5% (down 1.5%) and Independents/ Others 12% (up 0.5%).]

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4781/

  39. [Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut

    lulz RT @ShockJockCoach: Ray is not a fan of cheque book journalism… But in these circumstances #surprise]

  41. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
    ‘Concern for Thomson’s wellbeing is becoming widespread around the building, from people on all sides’ latika.me/KfYRfg
    View details ·]

  43. [‘Concern for Thomson’s wellbeing is becoming widespread around the building, from people on all sides’ latika.me/KfYRfg]

    How touching…wonder why they didn’t think of it while they were throwing the stones?

  44. DWH

    The Government is getting on swimmingly with the business of government and their numbers are very, very good.

    It is even getting us out of yet another of our Coalition war-messes.

    OTOH, the Opposition is not treading water. It is wallowing in dung.

  45. victoria, I think those concerns will only encourage Abbott. He’ll be thinking that a bit more of this and we’ll get a byelection and maybe government.

  47. [BB – I’m still learning twitter thing. I’ve got the #aca_no_way but how do I respond to it. Do I do it on my page under @BushfireBill or on the hashtag somehow. Taa in advance]

    You just write the hashtag (in this case #aca_no_way) anywhere in any tweets you send. Just make sure it’s exactly the same (including punctuation). That’s it! You’ve joined a hashtag campaign!

    The hashag makes sure they all end up in the same place. IF you get enough people writing the hashtag, it starts trending.

  48. BB – I managed it. Just followed how other’s had done it. Hooray, I’m starting to get it and realise that no spaces needed between tweet names.

    We all remember how the Oppn and journos told us to lay off Godwin Grech because of his mental state. After weeks of media torture for Thomson the MSM is now ‘concerned’ for his wellbeing – hit me with a hot iron, somebody. I’m so numb with disbelief about them that I don’t think I’d even feel the pain!

    [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke

    ‘Concern for Thomson’s wellbeing is becoming widespread around the building, from people on all sides’]

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