The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
• David Killick of The Mercury reports nine candidates have nominated for the Tasmanian Liberal Party’s preselection, to be determined on June 16. They are incumbents David Bushby and Richard Colbeck, together with “trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler, vineyard owner Sarah Courtney, Launceston Chamber of Commerce staffer Kristen Finnigan, business manager David Fry, Hobart businesswoman Sue Hickey, business development manager Jane Howlett and senior political adviser Don Morris”. Morris is a former chief-of-staff to the state Opposition Leader, Will Hodgman.
• Angus Taylor has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed the retiring Alby Schultz in Hume, winning 26 out of 33 votes in a ballot of delegates from local party branches. Taylor is a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete who had the backing of Schultz and Tony Abbott, and is also said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull. As detailed by the Yass Tribune, other candidates were Ross Hampton, an olive-grower and former adviser to Peter Reith, Ian Campbell and Brendan Nelson; Rick Mandelson, a Mittagong-based chartered accountant; and Ed Storey, a Yass-based grazier.
• Peter Hendy, former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith, has been confirmed as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. Leslie White of the Weekly Times reports that the Nationals have approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them “a point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.
• Amy Kelly of City North News reports that Brian Nally, “local activist and president of the Kalinga Wooloowin Residents Association”, will be a contestant for LNP preselection in Lilley, together with the candidate from 2010, Rod McGarvie, and – possibly – Clive Palmer.
• The Barossa Herald reports Tom Zorich has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for the South Australian seat of Wakefield. Zorich is a local sports store retailer and former Gawler councillor, and a former player and club president of the Central Districts Football Club.
• Richard Willingham of The Age presents a helpful list of Liberal preselection candidates for five Labor-held seats, and places particular emphasis on Jagajaga hopeful Nick McGowan, who is press secretary to state Planning Minister Matthew Guy, served as Ted Baillieu’s media director at the 2006 election campaign, and was a civilian peacekeeper who served in Afghanistan, Liberia and Burundi. Phil Barresi, former Deakin MP and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has decided against nominating again, with John Pesutto, an adviser to Ted Baillieu, widely rated the front-runner. Corangamite: Marcus Dripps, Sarah Henderson, Rod Nockles. Chisholm: Blair Barker, Adrianne Fleming, Mark Lane, John Nguyen, Nicholas Tragas, Theo Zographos. Deakin: Terry Barnes, Michelle Frazer, Phillip Fusco, Andrew Munroe, Simon Olsen, John Pesutto. Jagajaga: Nick McGowan, Mathew Whiffin. La Trobe: Michael Keane, Sue McMillan (Knox councillor and former mayor), Martin Spratt, Jason Wood, Mark Vershuur.
• Online voting has begun for the primary preselection process by which Labor will choose its candidate for the Sydney lord mayoral election, part of a process in which half the vote will be determined by participating voters who declare they are not members of a rival party. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports Chinatown restaurateur Jonathan Yee has reached a preference deal with “legal type Damian Spruce and refugee agitator Linda Scott”. Another candidate, Cassandra Wilkinson, founder of independent radio station FBi and wife of former state minister Paul Macleay, has accused Yee of branch stacking in a bid to strengthen his position in the 50% share of the preselection vote reserved for party members. Wilkinson and Cameron Murphy, NSW Civil Liberties chief, are preferencing each other. How to vote cards are distributed along with candidate statements to the 90,000 Sydney eligible residents.
Good to see movement confirmed. Even at the toxic levels Abbott has brought politics to Labor is making gains.
From other thread.
guytaur
Posted Monday, May 21, 2012 at 2:12 pm | Permalink
Another Parliamentary day. PM Gillard is still there. Abbott has lost again.
Another day. Another Tory loss.
Yes guytuar imagine if there was no side issues
Can someone advise whether the move to censure/suspend Thomson has taken place or whether it is likely to take place?
Looks like the Coalition have lost the :Class Warfare” debate:
[28% agree with the Federal Opposition’s claim that the Government is carrying out “class warfare” and 46% agree with the Government’s position that they are just trying to ensure that all Australians benefit from the mining boom]
From Essential.
Failing desperate Abbott falls back on failing carbon tax attack.
There have to better uses for Dorothy’s than sending them Macklin’s way.
lynchpin
Has not happened. Think it is not going to happen as it looks like the cross benches are not having a bar of it.
Thank You to Gary for these excellent posts:
[Finns, you mean these posts?
Thomas Paine
Posted Wednesday, June 23, 2010 at 9:58 pm | Permalink
It would be grossly unfair if Rudd got dumped. Then again I don’t think politics is anything to do with fair. No room for sentiment, just win and lose.
Thomas Paine
Posted Wednesday, June 23, 2010 at 10:05 pm | Permalink
Gillard would suffer very little backlash from the electorate for replacing Rudd. Remember the media has been running a long campaign about how bad Rudd is. People will just shrug and see it as a natural event.
Thomas Paine
Posted Wednesday, June 23, 2010 at 11:00 pm | Permalink
I imagine people already have a strong impression of who Gillard is as a person (as they did with Rudd through his tv appearances before the last eletion) so it will be quite difficult to damage that. I am sure they will find / attempt numerous things to attack Gillard, as they would Rudd.
Thomas Paine
Posted Wednesday, June 23, 2010 at 11:46 pm | Permalink
Rudd really needs to now look at the bigger picture.
should not forget that Rudd got rid of Beazley as Keating got rid of Hawke as well, it happens, it is often unfair
Thomas Paine
Posted Thursday, June 24, 2010 at 12:41 am | Permalink
The party is greater than one person. I am quite fond of Rudd and believe he has done a solid job and would do an even better job in further term. But events are as they are, that is politics. I assume there is a real good reason for this move.
Anyhow, Gillard has my 100% support as well as would whoever replaced her if they were of sufficient quality.
Rudd has to come out in enthusiastic support of Gillard for the party and the greater cause .]
So who is the one that has no principles? A dolphin or doggy? Urhhh, the pain that i am feeeling, unberable.
The class warfare is a great wedge for the govt to drive back supporters. 20% of the coalition voters agree with the proposition.
[Q. The Federal Opposition has accused the Government of “class warfare” for criticising and increasing taxes for Australia’s richest people and companies. The Government says they are just trying to ensure that all Australians benefit from the mining boom and other wealth derived from Australia’s resources and economic development. Which position do you most agree with?
28% agree with the Federal Opposition’s claim that the Government is carrying out “class warfare” and 46% agree with the Government’s position that they are just trying to ensure that all Australians benefit from the mining boom.
Those on higher incomes were only a little more likely to agree with the Opposition. For those earning less than $600pw, 53% agree with the Government and 23% agree with the Opposition. For those on incomes over $1,600pw, 45% agree with the Government and 31% with the Opposition.]
If only they could use it a little less clumsily.
[If only they could use it a little less clumsily.]
They really can’t win can they?
Anyone want to believe pyne
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1652095/Email-contact-with-Ashby-part-of-job-Pyne
So obviously Newspoll wasn’t an outlier
Wilkie asking GST question. Basically a Dorothy Dixer. Think Toxic Tony has scared the cross benches.
[Good to see movement confirmed]
Wait just a little longer, when the voters get the payments in their bank accounts, it will show just how fickle the public are when it comes to their back pockets.
Well, today’s speech by Thomson seems to have put the usual media suspects on the back foot. Sure it’s on the front page, but police sieges, rapper girlfriend problems, Robin Gibb, Qantas sackings and NSW Premiers whingeing about their entitlements seem to have regained the top spots.
Even Lawler’s “Long Leave” got a gig on the front page of the Tele.
BH
Fritz and tomato sauce sandwiches toasted fritz sandwhich, fritz fried in Mum’s batter!!!!
[Good to see movement confirmed. Even at the toxic levels Abbott has brought politics to Labor is making gains.]
WTF? Labor would be lucky to win 30 seats on these numbers.
Did someone put mogadon in the Libs water today? They all seem asleep or looking at funny bits of paper.
Pyne may have said the email to Ashby was “innocuous”, but he didn’t explain what it meant, either.
Showson
I would narrow it up a little at election time, but it still would be no more than about 47 seats.
Here we go… Prissy takes offence.
[WTF? Labor would be lucky to win 30 seats on these numbers.]
The trend.
BH
Fritz and tomato sauce sandwiches, toasted fritz sandswich, fritz fried in Mum’s batter!!!!
ShowsON
[WTF? Labor would be lucky to win 30 seats on these numbers.]
It’s the trend, the trend that counts this far out!
Extrapolating these polls to polls 16 months down the track is such a waste of time.
Gary
As they say…*snap*!
Well there you go – 55-45 from Golden Newspoll, and 56-44 from non-friendly Essential.
Hardly break out the champagne time, and it does look as though the polls are stuck here at the moment. But, not, not, slit the wrist time – by any means.
Labor needs that AWOL 8% PV back – some residing with Abbott, some with Greens and some with Other.
This, mind you, when the Conservatives and their media jackals have thrown everything into it.
Despite the best hopes of the conservative doomsayers who come here – they know that this is not an irretrievable position for Labor at all. Hence their continued agony.
Since Abbott lost the big one with the Indies in 2010 it has all been for nothing.
The biggest loss in his political career.
He just couldn’t convince 2 conservatives from the country to join him.
And………..the PM isn’t even in the country!
Robb rises from the grave… sinks back down…. something about “the nation’s credit card limit”… snooze…
bb
[Prissy takes offence.]
If the cap fits him…
good answer by Swannie to Robb. Short, pertinent and emphatic. More please, Swannie
Interesting how the Tasmanian Liberals released their full list of preselection candidates for the Senate, but when the Greens were selecting a replacement for Bob Brown they refused to do the same thing, and it is still unknown whether there were any other candidates beyond the two who went public (Whish-Wilson and Burnet).
[It’s the trend, the trend that counts this far out!]
The trend is that the Coalition has been stuck with about a 55/45 lead since about last November.
BH
Less is more with Swanny.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 34s
7 disputes Craig #Thomson’s claims that their journalists hovered underneath Thomson’s b/room window while his pregnant wife was showering.]
[Fritz and tomato sauce sandwiches toasted fritz sandwhich, fritz fried in Mum’s batter!!!!]
Wow, Puff. Will be in SA later this year but fritz in batter is just too wicked for me in my dotage. The kids would have loved it. Farmers Union used to be the best.
Will Channel 7 show up in tonight’s media watch?
[7 disputes Craig #Thomson’s claims that their journalists hovered underneath Thomson’s b/room window while his pregnant wife was showering.]
They were not actually hovering. Just lurking?
Pyne no longer knows what a question is,even a DD
[Showson
I would narrow it up a little at election time, but it still would be no more than about 47 seats.]
It doesn’t have to narrow up at election time. Look at NSW and QLD!
Hmm, polls moving back towards Labor, albeit slowly. Perhaps not everybody has “stopped listening” after all.
[The trend is that the Coalition has been stuck with about a 55/45 lead since about last November.]
Not quite. It blew out in the last 3 or 4 months but appears now to be trending back to the Govt. Agreed, it is still dreadful polling for the Govt, but there is a long way to go in this race.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 34s
7 disputes Craig #Thomson’s claims that their journalists hovered underneath Thomson’s b/room window while his pregnant wife was showering.]
Good fodder for Media Watch about a long history of TV news and current affairs lies and distortions.
BOATS 🙂
ruawake
[They were not actually hovering. Just lurking?]
True the paparazzi were not humming birds,but phew they do hum
Its old faithful time. ITs stop the Boats again.
Don Morris also was a chief adviser to former Senate President Paul Calvert and was preselected for the 3rd spot on the ticket in 2007.
member for indi booted
[Pyne may have said the email to Ashby was “innocuous”, but he didn’t explain what it meant, either.]
Nor why he lied about it’s existence in the first place.
[member for indi booted]
did she slither out hissing at the Speaker?
[Not quite. It blew out in the last 3 or 4 months but appears now to be trending back to the Govt. Agreed, it is still dreadful polling for the Govt, but there is a long way to go in this race.]
Oh OK, so the trend over the last 3 or 4 months is even WORSE than the long term trend going back to November.
The “dreadful polling” over the last few weeks is actually BETTER than what has gone before and the only solution to the government’s problems is wishful thinking.