Morgan’s face-to-face polling from last weekend, which has been published a day earlier than usual, shows Labor up slightly off a record low the week before, with their primary vote up a point to 30.5%. The Coalition is also up slightly, by half a point to 46%, with the Greens steady on 12%. A narrowing in the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, from 60.5-39.5 to 59-41, is mostly down to a slight increase in the preference flow to Labor. With regard to the ongoing disparity between this result and the two-party figure derived from preference flows at the last election, which is steady at 55.5-44.5, Morgan has taken to adding the following footnote: “An increasing proportion of Greens voters are indicating a preference for the L-NP ahead of the ALP. At the 2010 Federal Election only 20% of Greens voters preferenced the L-NP, but recent Morgan Polls have this figure closer to 40%”.
The latest instalment of Seat of the Week, like the last two, is brought to you by the letter B.
Seat of the week: Bass
Still famous for the by-election that provided a catalyst for the Coalition’s decision to block supply in 1975, Bass has been an arm wrestle between Labor and Liberal ever since, changing hands at five out of the six elections between 1993 and 2007. The electorate has been little changed since it was created with the state’s division into five single-member electorates in 1903, at all times covering Launceston and the state’s north-eastern corner. Launceston accounts for slightly less than three-quarters of its voters, and has been trending to Labor over the past two elections: between 2004 and 2010, Labor’s two-party vote in Launceston progressed from 47.6% to 58.3%, compared with 46.4% to 54.0% in the remainder of the electorate.
Labor first won Bass when it secured its first ever parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, and lost it six years later when its member Jens Jensen followed Billy Hughes into the Nationalist Party. Jensen retained the seat as a Nationalist at the 1917 election, and it remained with the party after he lost its endorsement in 1919. Labor’s next win came with the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, but it was again lost to a party split when Allan Guy followed Joseph Lyons into the United Australia Party in 1931. Guy was re-elected as the UAP candidate at that year’s election, before being unseated by Labor’s Claude Barnard in 1934.
The next change came when Liberal candidate Bruce Kekwick defeated Barnard when the Menzies government came to power in 1949. The seat returned to the Barnard family fold in 1954 when Kekwick was defeated by Claude’s son Lance, who went on to serve as deputy prime minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1974. The famed 1975 by-election followed Barnard’s mid-term resignation, ostensibly on grounds of ill health, but following a year after he lost the deputy leadership to Jim Cairns. A plunge in the Labor primary vote from 54.0% to 36.5% delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Kevin Newman (the late father of Campbell Newman and husband of Howard government minister Senator Jocelyn Newman), encouraging the Coalition to pursue an early election at all costs.
Bass remained in the Liberal fold for 18 years, with Tasmania bucking the national trend during the Hawke years in the wake of the Franklin dam controversy. Kevin Newman was succeeded in 1990 by Warwick Smith, whose promising career progress was twice stymied by the vagaries of electoral fortune. In 1993 he lost to Labor’s Sylvia Smith by just 40 votes, part of a statewide swing that gave the first indication that election night that things were not going according to script. Warwick Smith recovered the seat in 1996 and served as Family Services Minister in the first term of the Howard government, before the 1998 election produced a second GST backlash and another painfully narrow defeat, this time by 78 votes at the hands of Michelle O’Byrne, a 30-year-old official with the Miscellaneous Workers Union.
O’Byrne held the seat until 2004, when Mark Latham’s restrictive policy on old-growth logging provoked the wrath of Tasmanian unions and Labor politicians, and resulted in John Howard receiving a hero’s reception from timber workers in Launceston in the final week of the campaign. Michael Ferguson gained the seat for the Liberals with a 4.5% swing, but he was defeated after a single term by a 3.6% swing in 2007, and has since pursued a career in state politics. The successful Labor candidate, Jodie Campbell, would likewise serve only one term, announcing she would not stand for re-election as reports emerged her preselection was under threat. Campbell was succeeded by Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Right faction Senator Helen Polley and former manager at Launceston General Hospital. Lyons’ endorsement was determined by the intervention of the party’s national executive, an arrangement which had reportedly been smoothed by the Left not contesting the preselection for Denison. He performed strongly at the election, consolidating Labor’s hold on the seat with a 5.7% swing.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Brigadier Andrew Nikolic, whose military service has included postings in Iraq and Afghanistan, and has more recently worked with the Defence Department’s international policy division. Nikolic had been rated a favourite for preselection in 2010, but he withdrew citing work and family reasons. He made the news in May 2012 when he threatened to send “formal letters of complaint” to the employers of those responsible for a satirical blog post about him, and of anyone who had “liked” the post on Facebook.
Daretotread
It is not mindless to point out facts.
Of course MPs entitlements work differently from those of others – there are few other positions where you can be demoted overnight regardless of the quality of your personal performance .
If an MP’s super was based on their last position, then we would see mass resignations every time government changed.
Instead, we see Ex Ministers stick around for years, and even volunteering (as Faulkner did) to go to the back bench.
As I said, the relevant provisions have been posted here before, so there is no excuse for your ignorance.
Slipper may well have become Speaker for the perks, but that has nothing to do with the point I was making; that his period as Speaker will be factored into his super, regardless of whether he holds that position immediately prior to leaving Parliament.
Where has peak oil got to, lately?
Remember the coaliton could not form a majority government wiht 43% of the primary vote in 2010, they are only 2%-3% of that mark now
if they are around 40-41% at the end of the year
labor is a good chance of retaining government
[They will get exactly what they deserve, but unfortunately, they brought this disaster down on us loyal Labor supporters too.]
On the bright side, the ugly reality of populist LNP State Governments can only benefit federal ALP. Failyou is doing wonders for the ALP vote in Victoria.
@1036 – guytaur
Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 1:13 pm | Permalink
[The biggest mistake Labor did while in power was in not restoring an upper house.
Checks and Balances do work,]
Yes – what was it – 22 years with a small interlude to change that.
Good that they didn’t – upper houses deny the will of the people. What was it PJK called them??
If labor can get to be 34-35% around budget time next year
it would be a brave person to be tipping the coalition to win government
the coalition will be struggling after july 1 to keep their primary vote above 44% til the next election
The excellent Jane Hutcheon is interviewing the not quite so excellent Pat Farmer.
@1102 -Boerwar
Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 2:37 pm | Permalink
[Where has peak oil got to, lately?]
Sunk under the weight of reserves, shale oil, LPG – I’d say reality caught up with it.
[Large format movie film is truly awesome. A variation of it was also used for making IMAX movies!]
Yeah, IMAX is insane, 65mm that runs horizontally. Each frame is 15 perforations wide!
[Good that they didn’t – upper houses deny the will of the people.]
Not necessarily – how many bills are blocked by upper houses – and mechanisms always remain for the resolution of disagreements. It just happens that governments would usually prefer not to face the people over the blocked legislation because they are unpopular.
With an upper house elected by an appropriate method, you can safeguard against the worst abuses of power by governments and attempt to make sure as much information is made public about the secret dealings of governments as possible.
CC
Not to mention tar sands – and I’m sure you will be quite happy with much of the world looking like
&w=580&h=416&ei=ZtS1T6zSJu6TiAe6j6HgCA&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=258&vpy=297&dur=94&hovh=190&hovw=265&tx=99&ty=134&sig=107446580148740963507&page=1&tbnh=132&tbnw=160&start=0&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:6,s:0,i:85″ rel=”nofollow”>this.
The worm may be turning for Uncle Colin over in the wild wild west. Check out the headline for reactions to price increases in the state budget. It was also good to see the woman spoken to in the article was aware of the fact she was to receive carbon pricing compensation and that it would cover the price increase in electricity caused by it.
[War veteran gives up meat as power prices rise
“Mr Barnett has no concern for people who have worked for this state for all of their lives
“I spent two years fighting for this country, and I get treated like a heap of crap.”
……
She would only just break even with a 9 per cent carbon tax price hike still to come in July, and the state government’s extra 3.5 per cent increase would send her back to square one, she said.]
Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/war-veteran-gives-up-meat-as-power-prices-rise-20120517-1yt82.html#ixzz1vC2ibBOy
Ashby said he went to the media as he feared reprisals,does going to the media first change a fear of reprisal?can imagine anyone with a genuine case would fear reprisals ,which is why we have a system for help from many quarters,and the media is not one of them,or will everyone now go to the media and have trial by media before a court submission?the case is an obvious media one and do not think ashby is good enough to think of it on his own,as to his legals hope they do not get paid,and that is probably part of the whole deal,that needs an investigation.
[Ashby said he went to the media as he feared reprisals]
What a load of crap. If you feared reprisals you would confidentially go to the police.
cc
So, there is not going to be a peak oil?
ShowsOn
[you would confidentially go to the police]
If only Ashby had gone to the police. I would have done anything to be a fly on the wall in order to watch their reaction to the “you look fat in that shirt” complaint.
guytaur says Yes. Pyne Code of silence is a good joke. Sexuality jokes all seem to be demeaning. Just like gender jokes. I agree.
That code of silence must have been around for some time because I’ve never heard any reference to anything humorous about Christopher Pyne’s sexuality. I’ve heard plenty of jokes about him and do find him a figure of fun. Still I guess I can still write satire about him if I steer clear of his sexuality which isn’t very hard. This sort of thing?
Will Prissie Pyne still need to use
‘Time Out’ to find the Members’ loos,
Now Speaker Slipper can’t refuse
To let him rise to make more POOs?
chris murphy @chrismurphys
Stephen Rares J. is hearing the James Ashby case.I know him by reputation.Smart,no nonsense.Justice without fear or favour. #auspol
[Good that they didn’t – upper houses deny the will of the people. What was it PJK called them??]
I’d like to see Queensland introduce an upper house made up of the Mayors. That way the upper house is representing the local interests to balance the state interests and fringe groups like Fred Niles mob are kept out (unless they are voted in as a mayor).
The upper house cannot introduce legislation or vote on money bills.
Actually the joke is…. the pyne [cone] of silence…. that comes from here….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqcSWI6Ppks
I made the joke up, so I should know.
[Ashby said he went to the media as he feared reprisals]
Schnappi – I wonder why Ashby didn’t ask to be moved to another position or can staffers only work for the one politician. If I was worried about the bloke I worked with I would explain why and ask for a transfer. Unfair dismissal laws would have protected him.
I rarely agree with Barnaby Joyce but it has an air of dodginess all round.
[Either he will not want to be in Parliament to face the music or he may well have been emasculated by then.]
BK it wouldn’t be Abbott asking Pyne to step down. He was out defending all of his side this morning. It’s the Labor Govt. which has to step down according to Abbott.
[The upper house cannot introduce legislation]
What a completely bizarre idea.
BH: generally you work for one MP. If you are a member of a Party, you could (provided everyone was amenable to it) shift to another factionally-aligned MP’s office. But generally all positions are already filled, so your timing would have to be very good.
But in Slipper’s case, he is an Independent MP. As such, he technically had no other office to go to, unless the Commonwealth was able to accommodate him by gifting him a position in the Public Service.
As I understood it, Ashby resigned from the LNP to take the job in Slipper’s office, which makes his chumminess with senior LNP figures even more suspicious, from Slipper’s perspective. No wonder he questioned his loyalty the day after the drinkies!
Of course its Bizarre, the idea is meant for Qld 😉
The mayors focus is on review of state bills on behalf of their constituents. They are also expected to still do all the mayorish thing like wear chains and walk behind flabby public servants carrying swords etc (and occasionally run council meetings to pass bylaws etc)
Is the photo in this article from today’s Court appearance – the bloke looks a bit dishevelled.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/slippers-accuser-requests-a-jury-not-a-judge-20120518-1yuhm.html
[Is the photo in this article from today’s Court appearance – the bloke looks a bit dishevelled.]
That’s what comes from putting yourself in the hands of those Coalition types.
Another question on the Ashby case. Is the Michael Lee, QC, a former Labor politician?
Saw that photo before todya
Dany
OK it seems instead Slipper only gets 6.6% per Year of his (additional ?) salary. Now if he stays as speaker for one year and the higher amount is $50,000 then IT IS still AN EXTRA $3300 PER YEAR AND PRESUMABLY IF HE GETS PAST THE ONE YEAR IT IS TWICE????????.
Not being Mr s’s financial planer I guess the time he spent as a Minister/ shadow also will count.
Any way the whole point of my comment was that Slipper is interested in the prestige of being speaker and the dough. Sitting on the cross bench does not achieve these goals
BK – Those Coalition types are a bit busy trying to cover their tracks. They obviously didn’t have time to advise him on sartorial splendour!
BH
[Another question on the Ashby case. Is the Michael Lee, QC, a former Labor politician?]
I don’t think so. I was speaking to Michael Lee (former Minister in Hawke Govt, I think) in Brisbane last night.
The timing seems right for some coruscating mashup viral videos from the likes of Red Symons or Charles Firth, featuring Abbott’s dumbstruck nodding, “they just are” and the rich fields of palaver surrounding the fibs as a result of Ashby and Jackson/Lawler.
Who is leading who,news or abbott
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/business/media-2/tony-abbott-and-rupert-murdoch/
@1112 fiona
Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 2:49 pm | Permalink
[Not to mention tar sands – and I’m sure you will be quite happy with much of the world looking like this.]
Define “much” – what percentage of the earth’s surface? – even the eartth’s land surface? and that is of course assuming zero remediation.
You wouldnt’ be an exponent of alarmist catrastrophism would you? A bit of hyperbowl as the PM would have it?
[Ashby said he went to the media as he feared reprisals,does going to the media first change a fear of reprisal?]
Don’t forget we have Steve Lewis admitting on 2GB, during a gloating interview with Rad Hadley, that he had been in contact with Ashby “for some time”.
Would love to see Lewis called as a witness.
Ashby contacted lots of people beforehand, but none of them in order to seek redress, only to mine them for the best way to go about legal action.
This IS going to get a lot murkier.
2GB this afternoon: no mention of the case, except on the news bulletins.
DannyL – thanks for that explanation of staff. I thought they were employed by Parliament House itself and then allocated where wanted or needed.
BH
[Is the photo in this article from today’s Court appearance}
No that’s a file photo.
Ashby has been such a ghost recently that it’s possible he no longer reflects visible light. 😀
Whatever Slipper may want or may not want, one thing is clear – He was one of the better Speakers that we had. No nonsense to both sides and the behaviour all round improved. I can easily live with Slipper in the Chair.
@1116 – Peak Oil catastrophism has been with us for over a century now. Whether or not there will be Peak Oil very much depends on how you define Peak Oil – peak production, peak proven reserves, peak hydrocarbons, peak crude oil, peak green catastrophist alarmism.
Boerwar@732
Thanks for the heads up
good summary here http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120517111431.htm
the paper is submitted to but for me it’s behind a firewall http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00649.1
but Google got me a HTML version of above as well as what looks to be the paper at http://static.stuff.co.nz/files/melbourne.pdf
also 2 other summaries at
http://theconversation.edu.au/post-1950s-warming-in-region-unmatched-in-1-000-years-7081
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/post-1950s-warming-in-australasian-region-unmatched-in-1000-years-99380
but as you say, MSM and ABC seem to be waiting for the IPA to provide their response.
[ I can easily live with Slipper in the Chair.]
Me too.
@1139 – strange that he was accussed of running a massive media campaign and yet hasn’t appeared in the media once.
[About three minutes into the Swan interview, there was an almost unprecedented turn-off.]
Gary I just read that, thanks. I usually turn Sky off when Abetz, Brandis, Cormann, etc. come on and turn it back later to hear Laborites. I am so pleased that Sky can tell when people switch off.
It’s still appalling that commercial current affairs programs don’t have the PM on. Perhaps it’s the way they, and others they have on, denigrate her between appearances that makes people turn off. I’m so sorry the Govt. gave them money to save their hides.
[ I can easily live with Slipper in the Chair.
Me too.]
All depends on whether you’re a twink or a bear, I suppose.
It’s taking a lot of reading to catch up today but some good snippets abound
Alan Jones has been a busy boy helping Kathy Jackson out with $40,000 legal fees and acting as character reference for Joe Hockey’s former staffer.
[Alan Jones has been a busy boy helping Kathy Jackson out with $40,000 legal fees and acting as character reference for Joe Hockey’s former staffer.]
Says more about Jones that it does them.
[strange that he was accussed of running a massive media campaign and yet hasn’t appeared in the media once.]
What planet are you on?
BH
Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 3:49 pm | Permalink
[It’s still appalling that commercial current affairs programs don’t have the PM on. ]
Don’t worry – she is continually turning down their invitations