Morgan’s face-to-face polling from last weekend, which has been published a day earlier than usual, shows Labor up slightly off a record low the week before, with their primary vote up a point to 30.5%. The Coalition is also up slightly, by half a point to 46%, with the Greens steady on 12%. A narrowing in the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, from 60.5-39.5 to 59-41, is mostly down to a slight increase in the preference flow to Labor. With regard to the ongoing disparity between this result and the two-party figure derived from preference flows at the last election, which is steady at 55.5-44.5, Morgan has taken to adding the following footnote: “An increasing proportion of Greens voters are indicating a preference for the L-NP ahead of the ALP. At the 2010 Federal Election only 20% of Greens voters preferenced the L-NP, but recent Morgan Polls have this figure closer to 40%”.
The latest instalment of Seat of the Week, like the last two, is brought to you by the letter B.
Seat of the week: Bass
Still famous for the by-election that provided a catalyst for the Coalition’s decision to block supply in 1975, Bass has been an arm wrestle between Labor and Liberal ever since, changing hands at five out of the six elections between 1993 and 2007. The electorate has been little changed since it was created with the state’s division into five single-member electorates in 1903, at all times covering Launceston and the state’s north-eastern corner. Launceston accounts for slightly less than three-quarters of its voters, and has been trending to Labor over the past two elections: between 2004 and 2010, Labor’s two-party vote in Launceston progressed from 47.6% to 58.3%, compared with 46.4% to 54.0% in the remainder of the electorate.
Labor first won Bass when it secured its first ever parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, and lost it six years later when its member Jens Jensen followed Billy Hughes into the Nationalist Party. Jensen retained the seat as a Nationalist at the 1917 election, and it remained with the party after he lost its endorsement in 1919. Labor’s next win came with the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, but it was again lost to a party split when Allan Guy followed Joseph Lyons into the United Australia Party in 1931. Guy was re-elected as the UAP candidate at that year’s election, before being unseated by Labor’s Claude Barnard in 1934.
The next change came when Liberal candidate Bruce Kekwick defeated Barnard when the Menzies government came to power in 1949. The seat returned to the Barnard family fold in 1954 when Kekwick was defeated by Claude’s son Lance, who went on to serve as deputy prime minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1974. The famed 1975 by-election followed Barnard’s mid-term resignation, ostensibly on grounds of ill health, but following a year after he lost the deputy leadership to Jim Cairns. A plunge in the Labor primary vote from 54.0% to 36.5% delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Kevin Newman (the late father of Campbell Newman and husband of Howard government minister Senator Jocelyn Newman), encouraging the Coalition to pursue an early election at all costs.
Bass remained in the Liberal fold for 18 years, with Tasmania bucking the national trend during the Hawke years in the wake of the Franklin dam controversy. Kevin Newman was succeeded in 1990 by Warwick Smith, whose promising career progress was twice stymied by the vagaries of electoral fortune. In 1993 he lost to Labor’s Sylvia Smith by just 40 votes, part of a statewide swing that gave the first indication that election night that things were not going according to script. Warwick Smith recovered the seat in 1996 and served as Family Services Minister in the first term of the Howard government, before the 1998 election produced a second GST backlash and another painfully narrow defeat, this time by 78 votes at the hands of Michelle O’Byrne, a 30-year-old official with the Miscellaneous Workers Union.
O’Byrne held the seat until 2004, when Mark Latham’s restrictive policy on old-growth logging provoked the wrath of Tasmanian unions and Labor politicians, and resulted in John Howard receiving a hero’s reception from timber workers in Launceston in the final week of the campaign. Michael Ferguson gained the seat for the Liberals with a 4.5% swing, but he was defeated after a single term by a 3.6% swing in 2007, and has since pursued a career in state politics. The successful Labor candidate, Jodie Campbell, would likewise serve only one term, announcing she would not stand for re-election as reports emerged her preselection was under threat. Campbell was succeeded by Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Right faction Senator Helen Polley and former manager at Launceston General Hospital. Lyons’ endorsement was determined by the intervention of the party’s national executive, an arrangement which had reportedly been smoothed by the Left not contesting the preselection for Denison. He performed strongly at the election, consolidating Labor’s hold on the seat with a 5.7% swing.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Brigadier Andrew Nikolic, whose military service has included postings in Iraq and Afghanistan, and has more recently worked with the Defence Department’s international policy division. Nikolic had been rated a favourite for preselection in 2010, but he withdrew citing work and family reasons. He made the news in May 2012 when he threatened to send “formal letters of complaint” to the employers of those responsible for a satirical blog post about him, and of anyone who had “liked” the post on Facebook.
Thanks guys re clarifying that photo of Ashby was an earlier one.
@1149 – have you seen Ashby interviewed on TV?
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 3:45 pm | Permalink
Ashby said he went to the media as he feared reprisals,does going to the media first change a fear of reprisal?
Don’t forget we have Steve Lewis admitting on 2GB, during a gloating interview with Rad Hadley, that he had been in contact with Ashby “for some time”.
Would love to see Lewis called as a witness.
Ashby contacted lots of people beforehand, but none of them in order to seek redress, only to mine them for the best way to go about legal action.
This IS going to get a lot murkier.
2GB this afternoon: no mention of the case, except on the news bulletins.]
Pehaps you can tweet Slipper this and get his QC to grab Lewis?
[ Boerwar
Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 2:24 pm | Permalink
So, Spain, with 24% overall unemployment, 50% youth unemployment and a recruitment surge for the priesthood, still has growing labour costs…
That should fix it.]
Boers, my God man, you’ve got it.
At last, the scales have fallen from my eyes as to the ratinale behind Abbott’s constant criticism of Labor’ stimulus package.
He hates it because he wanted Australia to slide into a European-style recession.
Why?
The answer is staring us in the face man: A recuritment surge for the priesthood.
If the Spanish experience is anything to go by, we could probably look forward to the same thing happening here.
We know Opus Dei is an integral part of the NSW Liberals, including presumably Abbott, so why wouldn’t such an outcome be in their interests?
Tory economic policy as a tool for fillig empty Seminaries.
You know it makes sense.
I wonder if their little game of Sink the Slipper is working out quite as they were hoping.
Someone may have forgotten to bring the Pyne-O-Clean.
Here is that steve lewis interview http://www.2gb.com/index.php?option=com_podcasting&id=29&Itemid=41&task=view&limit=10&limitstart=20
Mon, 23 Apr 2012 15:32:00
Steve Lewis on the Slipper allegations
Chris Smith speaks with Steve Lewis, National Affairs Correspondent at the Daily Telegraph about the Peter Slipper story.
Compact Crank
[@1149 – have you seen Ashby interviewed on TV]
Neither slipper,pyne/or jackson lawler,lawler is on long leave ROFL
[Meguire Bob
Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Permalink
Here is that steve lewis interview http://www.2gb.com/index.php?option=com_podcasting&id=29&Itemid=41&task=view&limit=10&limitstart=20
Mon, 23 Apr 2012 15:32:00
Steve Lewis on the Slipper allegations
Chris Smith speaks with Steve Lewis, National Affairs Correspondent at the Daily Telegraph about the Peter Slipper story.
As I said to BB tweet it to Peter Slipper so Steve Lewis becomes a material witness
[Pehaps you can tweet Slipper this and get his QC to grab Lewis?]
Correction, was it Chris Smith?
Anyway, I doubt whether Slipper would be in any doubt as to the antagonism between he and Lewis. Slipper sounds like he can look after himself pretty well.
This may have been posted on May 16, but for those who missed out on this Stephen Koukoulas post:
[Tomorrow, Julia Gillard will become Australia’s 18th longest serving Prime Minister. She will overtake Harold Holt who was PM for 692 days. Ms Gillard has been in the job longer than McMahon, Cook, Reid, Watson, Fadden, McEwen, Page and Forde.
Australia has hade 27 Prime Ministers and interestingly 14 of those have served for less than 3 years. This means that Ms Gillard will continue to climb the ladder quite quickly in the near term with the next former PMs immediately ahead of her being Scullin, Rudd, Barton and Whitlam. Indeed, on 1 June 2013, Gillard will overtake Gough Whitlam as the 14th longest serving PM and when she does, she will become the 6th longest serving Labor PM (if we exclude Billy Hughes who batted for all sides!).]
http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/blog
PvO bagging the BISONS.
Dickhead!
Think slipper was more victimised than ashby by barnaby joyce,
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2012/s3505755.htm
heres another thing i found , if this article has any legs form the independent Australia is says steve lewis is the liberal party press office
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2011/politics/news-ltd-starts-smear-campaign-against-slipper/
Steve lewis has been making accusations about slipper
Someone should tell Tone. I’m sure he would be most interested.
http://www.afr.com/p/lifestyle/review/gen_and_the_blight_on_the_hill_yb5mf0VeEbHb1jSdU16XEO
Benjamin Law in an excellent article about Labor support among the younger voters.
Too much to post here, but if any of the ALP are looking for hints as to how to woo them, this article may help. Also gives the reasons why GenY is turning to the Greens.
The end:
[Anyone with keen investment instincts would know that’s a great time to buy stock. If you’re young and still believe in the party that gave us solid IR laws, allowed women control over their reproductive rights and gave indigenous people native title and an apology, now is the time to sign up. God knows, they need new blood and fresh eyes. For all we know, after a hopefully brief Abbott administration, you could very well be our next prime minister.]
GD
[Hey MTBW,
I assume Dave Oliver, the new ACTU secretary is a descendant of old Charlie, former AWU and NSW Labor boss in days past. Can you confirm?]
No I can’t confirm that I just don’t know but he is a member of the AMWU which is far more to the left than Charlie’s AWU.
Boinzo @ 1034
Thank you for that!
[have you seen Ashby interviewed on TV?]
No, I don’t watch much TV. But I do read the papers and look online. It has been headline news for about 2 weeks.
[PvO bagging the BISONS.
Dickhead!]
BK, i saw that. He was too chicken to mention BISONs by name. I had a spat with him via DM & He has blocked & unfollowed me.
daretotread
Thanks for clearing up the “formal submission” thing. Glad there were a large number in attendance and that it went well.
[PvO bagging the BISONS.
Dickhead!]
What’s wrong with them? Happening under a Labor government? 😉
Ex-ALP MP Michael Lee is far too busy doing ads for Flight Centre to be concerned with the lawyerin caper
Tomorrow, and each day thereafter, Tony Abbott will become Australia’s longest serving dickhead.
[Any way the whole point of my comment was that Slipper is interested in the prestige of being speaker and the dough.]
Not doubting that at all.
However, I would also add, “and to stick it up the Liberals” 😉
[About three minutes into the Swan interview, there was an almost unprecedented turn-off.]
What a load of crap. If Richo wants me to believe that Sky News/Foxtel/Austar has some arcane way of assessing who is watching what and when they turn off then I’m sure he’ll be able to tell me exactly how many times in the last three months I’ve said wtte ‘Get bleeped Richo’ and turned off after less than 3 minutes of his show. I look forward to his reply.
Tomorrow, and each day thereafter, Tony Abbott will become Australia’s longest serving dickhead.
And I was chastised for using the term fishwife…
This little black duck
[Tomorrow, Julia Gillard will become Australia’s 18th longest serving Prime Minister
Someone should tell Tone. I’m sure he would be most interested.]
Making sure of course to also inform him of his improving position on the longest serving opposition leader ladder 😆
“1141 Compact Crank
Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 3:46 pm | Permalink
@1116 – Peak Oil catastrophism has been with us for over a century now. Whether or not there will be Peak Oil very much depends on how you define Peak Oil – peak production, peak proven reserves, peak hydrocarbons, peak crude oil, peak green catastrophist alarmism.
”
Compact Crank, with the marvellous thing in front of you, called the internet, you could have made some very simple checks on Peak Oil.
It was raised by Hubbert, in 1956, and relates to crude oil production. So, it’s much younger than a century, is only about crude oil, and has a very strong basis in the physical parameters of oil fields.
What we have done is started to substitute other substances for some of the distillates of crude oil. However, these are more expensive to produce.
The ‘catastrophe’ of peak oil is that energy becomes too expensive for economies to grow properly. So the EROI (Energy return on investment) of these energy sources is too low.
It’s a large reason for the current unrest in a lot of Arab countries. Yemen is passing through peak oil for the country and as a result is collapsing.
High oil prices in Egypt and Tunisia also led to the unravelling of their economies
Amongst sundry bills, I received my voting ballot today for the ALP community pre-selection for Labor candidate for the City of Sydney Mayor. Postal vote envelope has a little box to tick: “I am not a member of another political party”….
I don’t mean to digress…
To “ShowsOn” if you’re not a serious photographer why would you be teaching DSLR – I don’t mean to be picky but there’s an awful lot of unnecessary digital noise in your images considering the sun is only just setting – can I see the EXIF data just out of curiosity – maybe I can help you out with settings and filters?
[And I was chastised for using the term fishwife…]
…and your point is?
Some good poll news from over the Tasman…………….bad for Tories though 🙂 . National = Liberals
[National was 44.5 per cent, down 2.5 points from the previous poll.
Gary Morgan of Roy Morgan NZ said the continuing scandals involving Act leader John Banks appeared to be rubbing off on Mr Key’s Government.
Support for Labour was 1.5 points higher at 30 per cent, the Greens were unchanged at 15 per cent and Winston Peter’s NZ First was up half a point to 5.5 per cent. Together they had 50.5 per cent]
[Tomorrow, and each day thereafter, Tony Abbott will become Australia’s longest serving dickhead.]
I’m nicking that for tomorrow morning 😆
A fairly obvious prediction:
Costello will be parachuted via some convenient by-election into a safe seat held by a retiring oldie. Abbott will make him shadow treasurer, and the forces of evil will run as an Abbott and Costello comedy team at the election.
Not a ludicrous idea, but for us a very dangerous one.
Costello’s agenda, and Abbott’s risk, is that the smirker will shaft BatMan at a later date. The other would-be if he could-be in all of this, the wide-jawed member for top hats, is in declining fortune, for he is loved by nought outside a declining cabal of small-L liberals, and they are too far away in the fairy land of self-denial to be of any value except as occasional subjects of minor comment by the press lizards on a quiet news day.
poroti,
Tone also holds the enviable record of the Longest Dummy Spit in Australian politics. His talents are unfathomable.
Hello again!
Could one of the lawyerly types please tell me if Peter Slipper is a Defendant in his own right to the Ashby case, or as Speaker of the Parliament does he have to let the Commonwealth run the Defense on his behalf?
Also, if he is able to defend himself, as it has been said he is a Barrister, then will he be able to call witnesses such as Christopher Pyne, Julie Bishop, Mal Brough, Clive Palmer and Tony Abbott? Or, because it is Ashby’s case, is he the only one who is able to call witnesses?
Thank you in advance. 🙂
dedalus – exactly how do you come to that conclusion. Are you taking a negative evidence approach? After the Kroger outburst, Costello has ruled out any retunr to Parliament – therefore it will happen?
Well, if you go by the ALP playbook that is probably fair enough – the PM is meant to be Full FOrawrd for the Bulldogs by now, wasn’t she? Or was she being deceptive?
If the AFP clears Slipper re cabcharges can he return to his speaker duties? Considering that now the civil case is returning for further directions on the 15th June
Finns
[I had a spat with him via DM & He has blocked & unfollowed me.]
There is just no accounting for taste, is there? 😉
[Could one of the lawyerly types please tell me if Peter Slipper is a Defendant in his own right to the Ashby case, or as Speaker of the Parliament does he have to let the Commonwealth run the Defense on his behalf?]
“Second Respondent” as himself, Peter Slipper.
“First Respondent” is the Commonwealth,as the responsible employer.
C@tmomma, Mr Slipper is there in his own right as a respondent alongside the Commonwealth.
He is represented by counsel rather than representing himself, clearly aware of the age old maxim that a lawyer who represents himself has a fool for a client …
Diogs,
As you said yesteday, Doctors are very poor at Politics.
Shorter PvO
The BISONS mean stuff all because of Thomson, Slipper, Rudd executions and noone listens to Julia.
Brilliant work Peter,
[I’m nicking that for tomorrow morning]
No problem Danny; but only on condition you chastise me as well. (See #1176).
C@tmomma, my understanding (and others are more qualified than me!) would be that Slipper would be appearing as a respondent (defendant is the term you’d used for a criminal matter) to Ashby’s application in his capacity as Ashby’s employer. He isn’t representing himself and his legal representation can call witnesses in relation to his defence against the allegations. Whether there’d be anything gained for his defence by calling your list of witnesses is questionable. I suppose it could go to Mr Ashby’s credibility.
Bob Ellis will refund HSU members if they write to him
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/bob-ellis-offers-to-repay-hsu-members-500k-allegedly-misused-by-independent-mp-craig-thomson/story-e6frf7l6-1226360457172
Can any lawyers here explain the upshot of this?
[In the Adelaide Magistrates Court today, prosecutors dropped allegations the MP had been in possession of child pornography – including images of children under the age of 14.
Through his lawyer, the MP pleaded not guilty to seven allegations he took steps to obtain access to child pornography via the internet.
Because those offences are considered minor, the MP will stand trial in the Magistrates Court, not the District Court.
“These minor indictable matters will be defended,” he said.
“We will need that pre-trial date and, no doubt, a trial date after that.”]
GG
[As you said yesteday, Doctors are very poor at Politics.]
Yes, I said they make poor politicians. We are trained to dismiss BS. Once you take the BS out, there’s not a lot left in politics. Apart from endless amusement.
Actually, on second thought maybe not his employer (that being the Commonwealth), but as the person who has had the allegations made against him.
Diogs,
Sort of contradicts your lament the other day that much of medicine is built on superstition and misinformation.
You seem very selective in your dismissal of BS.
GG
[Sort of contradicts your lament the other day that much of medicine is built on superstition and misinformation.]
I was referring to medieval medicine. We have moved on from the wandering womb theory of disease.