Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
• Abbott has also scored his best personal ratings since July last year, his approval up five points on the previous poll to 44% and disapproval down four to 52%.
• Gillard has at least not gone backwards on her own personal ratings, although the starting point was quite dismal enough: 35% approval (down one) and 60% disapproval (up one).
UPDATE: Essential Research is at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, which are little changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
(n the other side of the family, I have a great grandfather who was a catholic priest. Left the priesthood and married the mother of his two year old daughter.
Now you might understand why I chose athiesm. lol)
I know all about these sort of things sk
But the nuns thats taught me where wonderful, there is no way i could for get their courage
My family , are irish catholic, church of england, methodist,my scotch grandmother i adored and when visiting would go to her church with her
I chose not to deny my background and my faith, which is richer than ever
Ichose to just stop going to church,
[Hobart is amazing. A Capital City that can be a small village. I think only Darwin and Canberra have similar types of contact.]
The collective intelligence of Poll Bludger discovered during the last Tasmanian election that the chief economic activity of Tasmania is vote counting.
[Why hasn’t this point been made by the govt? If it has I haven’t heard it.]
banks have margins they work to and returns to shareholders, increase tax and you decrease those returns unless you increase your margins.
The 1% tax cut would also have meant less pressure on margins, worth about 20 basis points, but Abbott refused it.
Is it true… Is Thomson going to walk?
confessions
I mentioned today that The msm and coalition are being relentless, and the strategy may be to push Thomson to resign from parliament.
Although, the msm and coalition have been harrassing Thomson for years now, why should he give them the satisfaction
And, if Tony Abbott was being true to his Catholic roots,
he should take himself out the back
and horse-whip himself with his racing bike.
And pigs might fly.
What a bluddy hypocrite he is.
See you bludgers a bit later. Going to prepare myself for QandA. Got to tolerate Sloane enough so I do not kick tv in (yes will be using mute judiciously). All so I can see Senator Wong do her thing.
[Is the money due to go into your account this Wednesday then?]
Better try and arrange a baby sitter, then. Might be a big night at the services club.
Now ill be in troible
I read only last week. That athiesim, is an in thing, at the moment.
A trendy thing,
It wa a story, about christian art and paintings, and an exhibition of same travelling to art galleries
[Is it true… Is Thomson going to walk?]
Why would he? This bloke is in fighting mode. The indies have said they want justice to take its course. He has no reason to get out, not yet anyway.
http://janeelix.wordpress.com/2012/05/07/christine-milne/
castle:
The coalition hysteria on the carbon price and MRRT putting upward pressure on interest rates is very neatly countered by referencing Tony Abbott’s Great Big DIrect Tax on Banks.
Did Mike Smith send a shiver up his spine this afternoon…
After several nuisance calls last Saturday, got one from Newspoll which I thoughtlessly eschewed. One vote less for Labor.
Thomson cant quit. He will need the money if:
(a) FWA kick off in the Federal Court; and
(b) He is going to fight it.
You know the issue is at the end of it’s tether when the cry is “Well… the rumours are that Thomson’s gonna walk!”
victoria
So either Pyne is making a big man of himself when he’s done very little, or he’s so sure that the scam will work that he wants to take all the credit and sees no harm in that.
[He is giving the impression that rates will have to rise, that the cost impact to the council will be significant, thereby running a quasi campaign against the federal govt.]
confessions – ring ACCC and complain. Get them to check the Council bloke out for giving incorrect info re CT.
my say
Thanks 😀
victoria:
Agreed. Thomson has had shit flung at him by the Liberals for how long now? Why would he resign from parliament and effectively cede govt to them?
I hope Penny Wong gives that tiresome woman Judith Sloane a real toasting tonight on QandA.
I heard on #SBSNews tonite Indo FM Marty Natralegawa has criticised Abbott’s Turn The Boat Policy again but cant find anymore @bobjcarr ?
[clements steve
Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 8:35 pm | Permalink
Danny @ 3884. Briiliant.
You and BB just may have hit upon the strategy to turn things around. Please tweet the MPs.]
And welcome again to you
On balance – doesn’t QandA work on a proportional audience according to the latest polls? Maybe they’re starting to do the same with their panel. Going to get very heavy and boring if that is so.
[So either Pyne is making a big man of himself when he’s done very little]
Might be MOAR…………………..
BH:
If I could do it anonymously I would consider it.
Finns
I’ve never heard a dolphin ROAR as loud as you do 🙂
confessions
There are many councils now picking up the narrative “rates up because of carbon tax”. Stephen Mayne tweeted that his council has done that ~a week ago. CH7 have proudly run several Melb councils spruiking it, too.
[Space Kidette
Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 8:45 pm | Permalink
Kezza & Lynchpin,
On the maltese side of my family I have many, nuns and priests amongst my ancestors. Currently from the same side I have an uncle who is a Knight of the Church … he also owns a brothel.
On the other side of the family, I have a great grandfather who was a catholic priest. Left the priesthood and married the mother of his two year old daughter.
Now you might understand why I chose athiesm. lol]
Me too.
Sounds like your ancestors bit the bullet, though.
Good on them!
And good on the story being out in the open.
Abbott’s wouldn’t, in a fit.
And Abbott is the worst of the worst.
Couldn’t lie straight in bed.
Couldn’t tell the truth if he tried.
I couldn’t care less about his obsessions
but I do care about truth.
Sometimes I think his reticence – silences, whatever – are when he’s tossing up whether to tell the truth or not.
But he just can’t do it.
I don’t hate him for that.
I hate Catholicism for that.
It’s a religion that has allowed lies to be forgiven.
Tony Abbott doesn’t need to wrestle with his conscience
(although I can see the struggle)
he knows he will be forgiven
even though his conscience will never forgive him.
I’d hate to be Tony Abbott.
Finns
Do you know much about David Donovan?
[David Donovan @davrosz 10h
@visivoz Fm reliable source: at function 2 nts ago Pyne gloated about being involved in Slipper incident and inferred he was a major player.]
Modlib completely misunderstood my argument bc he/she/it wants to see it through his/her/its personal prism.
Not going to bother to enlighten him/her/it except to say:
30 out of 40, is %wise more than 30 out of 50.
Modlib is looking at my argument upside/down.
lizzie:
I can understand large councils in capital cities doing that, esp those which were named in that report which was released last week showing the ‘hardest hit’ organisations/businesses/councils.
But as I said, our council is so small, offers no service delivery other than rates, rubbish, roads, has solar panels on the roof of the shire offices, yet the mayor is rabbiting on in the recent paper about electricity prices.
It’s hard to reconcile his rhetoric with the actual reality of council outgoings.
Have tweeted BB’s strategy and Danny’s thoughts (3884).
Many positive comments 🙂
Gary
[Why would he? This bloke is in fighting mode. The indies have said they want justice to take its course. He has no reason to get out, not yet anyway.]
I’d be seriously considering quitting if I was Thomson (irrespective of whether he’s done something or not).
He won’t get preselection and his political career is over. He’s under more public pressure that anyone in Australia and it must take a toll. His life would be an awful lot better if he quit, although I accept money might be a problem.
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/05/14/is-abbott-consciously-lying-on-nbn-costs/
Mari @ 3973, thanks.
Many bright minds on this site, and it IS being watched. Can see how both ‘sides’ are capable of discussing maturely.
Diog
If he quits, there’s the book, then the documentary, then the sponsorships and speeches… 😉
Europe not so good
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9263419/Debt-crisis-live.html
Check out the simplified figs on USA debt at 11.54
Lizze,
The BISONs ROAR …. The Dolphin just flips flips flips
confessions
[But as I said, our council is so small, offers no service delivery other than rates, rubbish, roads, has solar panels on the roof of the shire offices, yet the mayor is rabbiting on in the recent paper about electricity prices.]
Are you in Victoria?
kezza2,
The bit I don’t understand with Abbott’s BS sprays is that I can’t even finish the sentence if I know I telling porkies. If I don’t believe it or feel compromised about something I can’t get through the telling.
Don’t know he stands there and reels off outright lie after outright lie with a straight face.
The amusing thing to me is just how off the planet the Liberal Party are on policy right now.
The Asian Language policy announcement last week tells me that the Coalition are in complete policy disarray and have lost a sense of narrative outside of what isn’t the ALP (and that Asian Language policy is something the ALP would strongly approve of).
If the ALP managed to get out of this sideshow of Slipper and Thomson, they’d be absolutely walloping the Coalition on policy. The problem is they’ve had zero luck and now have resorted to a strategy of trying to win back the base
Dio:
The difficulty for him is that if he walks he effectively cedes govt to the coalition as Labor would need Katter now that Crook is in the LNP fold, and Slipper is sidelined from the Speakership.
Given the vitriol levelled at him by the coalition, I can just imagine him wanting to stick it out, to deny them what they see is so close, yet so far.
It’s what I’d do anyways.
fiona:
No, sorry, I don’t live in Victoria.
Amanda Vanstone seems to think she has some economic credentials. Her article is trying to make out that labour will leave an economic mess for the libs to clean up.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/forget-the-farcical-surplus-its-debt-we-have-to-worry-about-20120513-1ykq6.html?rand=1336915042055
I remember her blowing up thousands of tax payer dollars on her language classes.
Spur
I posted a copy of a speech that Pyne had made where he made a song and dance about how the current curiculum has far too much focus on Asia.
So a new policy about Asian Languages is completely disagreemnt with Pyne’s education policy.
And no journos picked it up and asked either Pyne or Abbott about it.
Did anyone see JG’s interview today from QLD. She looked very calm and relaxed.
I wondered if she knew something we don’t. 😆
[You can eat my soup chilled with Sour Cream too.
Or yoghurt, if one is being health-conscious ]
nup, would spoil the mud crab. 😀
Craig shags the BISON’s…
Just a comment on those who seem to be arguing that Thompson is guilty because of the report of FWA.
To my mind this reports seems a little on the amateurish side at least in some areas. The auditing may be correct but the assumptions reached in respect of the auditing seem at least in part to be falling short of the competence required. Comments like “the signature on the credit card docket “seems” to be like Thompson’s” does not fill me with any degree of confidence that the author of this report know what they are talking about. In view of what is riding on this surely a statement from an expert in the area would be the least needed to reach this conclusion. “Seemed” is not good enough. Either it is Thompson’s signature or it is not. To my mind it is imperative that all dockets under review should be examined by an expert to determine their status and if that has not been done why not? What other arguments that Thompson may have put up in his defense have been ignored. If they were found not to be supportive of Thompson this should be stated and reasons given why these decision were accepted or rejected. Without this approach the report is not worth a ton of guano.
It is also unsatisfactory that this “findings” have been released without the benefit of being tested in a court. Jumping to conclusions is a very dangerous thing.
I am reminded of a story from the motor industry where it became “evident” that a family’s new car “came to the opinion” that it liked vanilla ice cream and not ice cream of other flavors.
It was a family’s habit that after their evening meal on a Sunday the father would drive to the local store and purchase ice cream which was then consumed by the family.
The family purchased a new car and of cause the family habit in respect of ice cream on a Sunday continues.
However, the new car then started to cause problems in that when the father purchased vanilla Ice cream there was no problems but when any other flavored ice cream was purchased it would refuse to start at the shop after the ice cream was purchased.
The family of cause refereed the problem to the car retailer. The retailer over a number of months examined the car a number of times but was unable to find any problem. By this time the family has the “tom tits” with the car and refers the matter to the manufacture that of cause dismiss the complaint as we all know that car cannot have an opinion on ice cream but never the less it seemed that this one did. The family, not to be put off, continued its “harassment” of the manufacture until the manufacture decided that to get rid of these idiot pests they would have a look at the car.
So back to the manufacture the cars goes and of cause they can’t find anything wrong with the car nor does this fault arise in their testing.
So the car comes back to the family with a “nice” note telling them there was nothing wrong with the car.
However, the very next Sunday “Dad” goes down to the store and buys ice cream that is not vanilla and low and behold the car will not start. Well the family is really starting to get annoyed now and commences a campaign to get the matter fixed or a new car. After months of campaigning the manufacture sends out someone to see this cars reaction to non-vanilla ice cream. So on Sunday “Dad’ and the guy from the manufacture hops in the car and drives down to the store. Dad goes in and buys the ice cream (non-vanilla) and gets in the car and low and behold it won’t start.
Of cause the guy from the manufacture has at least seen the “problem” occurring so now the argument that the car only likes vanilla ice cream has some weight.
So they take the car back to the manufacture’s workshop and they commence a detailed examination of the car. After many hours of work they discover the problem.
Vanilla ice cream is by far the most popular out selling all other flavones by a large margin. Shops in order to take advantage of this placed vanilla ice cream at the back of the shop to get people to pass many other items and therefore encourage an impulsive purchased or two. However, other flavored ices cream are place at the front of the shop to encourage purchases because of the greater mark up on non-vanilla flavored ice creams.
It turned out that the short trip to the store raised the temperature of the engine to the exact point that when the engine was turned off this caused a vapor lock to occur. However, when the owner went to the back of the shop to get the vanilla ice cream this gave enough time for the vapor lock to release. However, when the owner of the car purchased non-vanilla ice cream the vapor lock was not cleared when he got back to the car and the subsequent attempts to start the car made things worse.
Reaching conclusions on data that has not been tested is very dangerous. This does not mean that the correct decision will always be reached but until we find a better way we would be fools to behave differently now. We do not know what Thompson’s defense will be but if the parliament or the public or the media reach a conclusion without the benefit of testing the data in a Court then we increase the chances of a miscarriage of justice. If we assume that Thompson is subsequently found to be innocent and if the public and the MSM find him guilty now and a penalty imposed how can reparation be applied/ calculated to Thompson, his family and anyone else who was adversely affected.
In the case of the car it is clear than neither party had all the details until they did there was no hope of solving the problem. This is the same with Thompson. We will not know his innocence of guilt till all the facts have been examined.