Newspoll: 63-37 to Coalition in NSW

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest bi-monthly Newspoll result for state voting intention in New South Wales shows a continuation of the post-election stasis, with the Coalition leading 63-37 on two-party preferred and 47% to 24% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 12%. This compares with January-February poll results of 64-46, 49%, 25% and 13% (so “others” would appear to be up four points), and results at the election of March 26 last year of 64.2-35.8, 51.1%, 25.6% and 10.3%. Barry O’Farrell is up two on approval to 48% and up one on disapproval to 30%, John Robertson is up two to 28% and up three to 37%, and O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier has swollen from 52-15 to 56-14.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

24 comments on “Newspoll: 63-37 to Coalition in NSW”

  1. Mod Lib: HA HA HA

    Robo is safe, because nobody else wants the job, at least for now.
    If I was NSW Labor, I’d be putting Luke Foley into the lower house at the first available opportunity – he’s the one member of the shadow ministry with any sort of media profile right now.

  2. Regarding the Newspoll

    Nothing new here. No surprise for anyone. All that needs to be seen is why they are like this and what needs to change for Labor to turn them around. Part of this is changing the media narrative so that voters see the truth not the confected government is in crisis being so falsely reported.
    The government is not in crisis. The most the media should be saying is the government has hit rough and stormy seas due to scandals. Crisis no.
    How this change is managed will be interesting to see. We know that leadership change and changing policies is not the way to change that narrative.

  3. Pretty inexplicable, considering the government has done virtually nothing of substance since it got in and the Daily Tele have been sticking the boot into Barry on a regular basis.

  4. Sooner or later, people are going to notice that Barry O’Farrell doesn’t actually do anything. All they are hearing from him now is about the big projects (NW Rail, Pacific Highway etc) that he basically wants the Feds to pay for. The Feds are saying no and this is all people are listening to.
    Once Monkey Boy is in the big chair in Canberra, he will show a similar disinclination to pay for NSW’s freight. Only then will people begin to join the dots.

  5. More proof the Labor brand is toxic in NSW. BOF increases his lead when the Telegraph is running a campaign against him. How dare he not build a new railway line inside of 12 months after all Labor only had 16 years.
    There was no gang or gun crime when the Libs came in right?
    Btw Labor boosters if he is doing nothing that must be perfect for you guys because how could he be offending anyone with his right wing policies when maintaing the status quo.
    I wonder how well Labor is polling right now inside the seat of Dobell?
    Sorry who is listening to the real world not you.

  6. WWP
    [People get the Govt they deserve, clearly on the East Coast you have been very very naughty.]

    Give them time, they will stuff it up, Shooting flying foxes in Qld, open slather for the LNP!.

  7. [Barry O’Farrell doesn’t actually do anything.]

    The LNP never build anything, what did Howard BUILD in eleven years, practically nothing.
    They only SELL assets.

  8. I only understood what happened in NSW after a member from my local ALP branch (in Victoria) said what it was like campaigning for Labor there last year.

    He said that he had never felt so threatened when walking down the street wearing a Labor t-shirt, and that Labor wasn’t only just out of favor, but absolutely hated there. He said that the reasons voters felt that way was because of the large amount of ministers going down for corruption, the power games being played from 2007-11 and a feeling that NSW Labor only cared about themselves and not the voters (a feeling no doubt that the hate media was delighted to worsen).

    I gather that it will take some time for such an attitude to change, and NSW Labor will need to be seen actively addressing why it lost and make amends. Only then will the polls narrow.

  9. [People get the Govt they deserve, clearly on the East Coast you have been very very naughty.]

    The same people had a Labor Govt for many years.

  10. [Rohan
    Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 11:04 am | Permalink
    Pretty inexplicable, considering the government has done virtually nothing of substance since it got in and the Daily Tele have been sticking the boot into Barry on a regular basis.]

    Don’t talk about the media criticising the Liberal government, that kind a talk doesn’t go down well here….remember it is always media bias AGAINST the ALP.

    Please don’t transgress again! 🙂

  11. [People get the Govt they deserve, clearly on the East Coast you have been very very naughty.

    The same people had a Labor Govt for many years.]

    A Labor Govt which yielded three members the subject of ICAC findings of corruption and one outstanding.

    That ICAC was able to find Angela D’Amore acted corruptly was confirmed by the Supreme Court today.

  12. Things are ticking over quietly in NSW pretty much as they have been for many years. Nothing much changed with the change of Government. Trains continue to run more or less on time and mostly stay on the rails and arrive at their destination; facilities at many public schools need to be upgraded to the 21st century; ditto public hospitals, where waiting times in emergency are still way too long; upgrading of major roads continues at a snail’s pace; the usual complaints about speed cameras; shootings in the Western suburbs of Sydney; sentences handed down by the courts still don’t meet the requirements of the shock jocks or the Daily Telegraph; Sydney’s second airport looks unlikely to be built this century. Same old same old, so I suppose not many people have seen a reason to change their vote.

    One thing that is different is that the Daily Telegraph no longer has screaming daily headlines about how bad the state government is, pretty much regardless of what actually happened in the state that day. We still see the occasional article about it being ‘soft on crime’ or generally not right wing enough for their liking, but nothing like the open campaigning for regime change we are seeing now at the Federal level and previously at the state level.

  13. Mod Lib@16

    Most of the regular PBers avoid the State threads, so I knew I wouldn’t attract the kicking you get on a regular basis..

  14. 20

    The specific threads provide a more in depth discussion when they get noticed and there is something interesting to talk about. The get more when they are the top of the main page. Some commenters are more likely to read and and comment on the specific threads.

    There is currently also a Melbourne (state) by-election thread.

  15. Things may look quite different by next NSW election. I’d look for a number of commuter seats to go back to solidly Labor based on today’s farcical announcement of intent to combine intercity rail with country rail services. Countrylink is a NP boondoggle and will bleed the mountains, central coast and hunter services dry.

  16. MM

    Labor will need to find some good candidates. I wonder when they will start looking.

    Need to get Whan and Foley out of the Legislative Council and into the Legislative Assembly somehow too

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