Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
• Abbott has also scored his best personal ratings since July last year, his approval up five points on the previous poll to 44% and disapproval down four to 52%.
• Gillard has at least not gone backwards on her own personal ratings, although the starting point was quite dismal enough: 35% approval (down one) and 60% disapproval (up one).
UPDATE: Essential Research is at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, which are little changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Mediawatch getting stuck into the Ulhman and Haydne Cooper immigration beat up.
fess
The cost of staying in might be pretty horrendous. He looks pretty tough but we don’t really know how it is affecting his family etc.
SK
Missed it. I am always curious by the body language. Usualy says a lot more than the words they are saying.
[jenauthor
Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 9:16 pm | Permalink
Modlib completely misunderstood my argument bc he/she/it wants to see it through his/her/its personal prism.
Not going to bother to enlighten him/her/it except to say:
30 out of 40, is %wise more than 30 out of 50.
Modlib is looking at my argument upside/down.]
Nice try Jen!
You refuse to accept your statement that “strongly disapprove will ALWAYS” be higher when I provide a link showing it isnt 50% of the time.
Then you come here saying I completely misunderstand! LOL 🙂
[The amusing thing to me is just how off the planet the Liberal Party are on policy right now.]
According to Andrew Elder, Abbott is now trapped into sticking with his Great Big Direct Tax on Banks:
[If Abbott drops paid parental leave, the whole family-family-family rhetoric which is core to his political persona goes by the board. So Abbott has children, so what? He has that in common with Mark Latham, Simon Crean, Kim Beazley, Alexander Downer, John Hewson, Andrew Peacock and Bill Hayden. You can laugh and shake your head at NSW state politics, but Bob Carr saw off four Liberal leaders who, unlike him, were all married with kids.]
And is wedged on workplace relations by way of his own refusal to want to go there:
[The Coalition needs a workplace relations policy. It has three former ministers on its front bench, plus another one (Peter Reith) who is clearly underemployed. If they have no cogent and coherent policy by this time next year, you’ll know that the Coalition are not serious about winning government.]
While people are obsessing about polls, they are missing the stuff at the periphery.
Would have thunk that. #MediaWatch whacked #ABC730 for sloppy journalism
Dio:
Agreed. He has a young family as well.
Read a great quote from the “Malcolm Tucker character in “In the Thick of It”:
“Who was it that did your media training? Myra Hindley?”
Ha ha. Reminds me of someeone.
Diogenes
Thomson will likely become a stay home dad after the next election
[Craig shags the BISON’s…]
Sheeppen Shaggers yes, BISON Shaggers? NYET…….
[New2This
Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 8:57 pm | Permalink
Is it true… Is Thomson going to walk?]
Stop dribbling Recycled
[Modlib completely misunderstood my argument bc he/she/it wants to see it through his/her/its personal prism.]
Mod Lib has completely misunderstood life, so your argument is the least of her concerns.
[If I could do it anonymously I would consider it.]
confessions – must be a way around it. Can you send clippings of newspaper articles with a note from ‘concerned citizen’ or somesuch.
[Space Kidette
Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 9:23 pm | Permalink
kezza2,
The bit I don’t understand with Abbott’s BS sprays is that I can’t even finish the sentence if I know I telling porkies. If I don’t believe it or feel compromised about something I can’t get through the telling.
Don’t know he stands there and reels off outright lie after outright lie with a straight face.]
He does. Because I reckon Pell’s told him his lies are for the greater good, and that he can always get “forgiven”.
You can see he’s obviously conflicted.
He really doesn’t want to lie.
That’s when he gets into his “errr, eerrrr, hmmm, hmm, err” staccato stuff.
It’s terrible to witness.
Then he gets into his “bugger it” mode and goes hell for leather and does his hatred of women via Gillard shit,
It must kill his conscience.
It’d be like raping his mother.
We’re worried about Craig Thomson surviving the msm onslaught.
I’m sorta worried about Abbott surviving his push to power!
Confessions
Elder is right. Abbott must implement PPL, Direct Action and the uncompetitive company tax or he will be stuffed.
Treasury and Cabinet will fight to the nth degree to stop it though. Will ensure countless leaks and counterleaks of cabinet minutes.
shellbell
[Thomson will likely become a stay home dad after the next election]
What does his wife do?
Diogenes
From Wiki
[Zoe Arnold, a radio newsreader and media advisor]
Introducing Mr Glass Jaw 2012
[Chris Uhlmann @CUhlmann
Some of the argument was incoherent. It seemed to boil down to “Marion Le was upset and we are too”. We stand by every word.]
He completely took Marion Le’s statements out of context. SHe should at the very least get an apology.
More glass jaw
[Chris Uhlmann @CUhlmann
730’s story on visa fraud was much less sloppy that episode of Media Watch… In the words of Jonathan Holmes “I disagree”]
Thank you Stephen Mayne…
Sloane is a royal pain in the neck!
fess,
Such complaints are not restricted by postcode. Anyone can lodge a complain about such actions anywhere in Australia.
http://www.levesoninquiry.org.uk/hearings/
Lord O’Donnell on Leveson is making some interesting comments on media regulation – he would like a fair and independent body set up which ensured separation of “news” (he would like it to be reported factually) and opinion – where a particular newspaper could push its point of view.
He would also like the same code of conduct for all media, ie both broadcasting and print. He is also pushing total transparency in dealings between reporters, lobbyists and politicians et al.
He seems certainly to be impressing Lord Leveson who has just said he is “walking himself into some work”. Sounds like he is trying to pressgang him!
Alastair Campbell is on in the afternoon.
Diogenes
As well Zoe Arnold was former press secretary to Reba Meagher, our one time NSW Health Minister who holds two firsts:
(a) first person eleced in the wake of an assassination of a parliamentarian, John Newman in September 1994;
(b) first member for Cabramatta to live in Coogee.
[What does his wife do?]
Diog, none of your business
I’m looking forward to a right hook from Penny.
Ah, “The Code of Common Sense”. Thanks for that Joe. Most enlightening!
For info, O’Donnell was press secretary to John Major, then went through various civil service positions until he became head of it. He retired late last year and was made a life peer.
This QandA is pathetic.
Blubber blabber.
There is a code of conduct. It’s called the law.
Ulhman is still sulking on twitter. He is seriously soft.
Wouldn’t survive one week in PB-land!
[BK
Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink
This QandA is pathetic.]
I don’t watch and when I saw the line up am glad, how is Penny going?
[Chris Uhlmann @CUhlmann
This was an important story. We will publish stories no matter who they might offend. And will not be bullied off them. Well done Hayden]
What a sook.
[BK
Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink
This QandA is pathetic.]
Yep
Tim Costello believes Craig Thomson is lying.
Uhlmann has now proven beyond all reasonable doubt what a tool he is:
[Chris Uhlmann @CUhlmann
And in the midst of the MW report are interpretations of the story in the Australian and on 2GB… As if 730 has control over commentary. ]
He’s actually using 2GB and The Australian to defend himself. FFS.
[Fit And Proper Dan @Dan_Gulberry
@CUhlmann You mean outlets that mercilessly slag off the ABC? You’re actually using them in your defence? #uhlmannmustgo ]
mari
Penny’s fine – as usual. But she hasn’t had much of a chance so far.
We need a code of conduct for #qanda panel like Tony Jones will #shutup
Yes his wife and kids should be left out of it… They have and will suffer enough.
Q & A
tuned in just now & caught end of Jo(ke) Hockey election now to implement a code of conduct & then the vile sloan pipes up had to switch off after 15 secs.
Mayne: Thomson should resign.
[Tim Costello believes Craig Thomson is lying.]
So does 91% of the SMH pollees
[How do you rate Craig Thomson’s explanation that he was set up?
Very believable
2%
Possible
7%
Don’t believe it
91%
Total votes: 18929.]
Skewed it by only allowing “very believable” and “possibles” for the ayes
Thomson should resign he is destroying Labor, he is destroying the union movement he is trashing the parliament…
Ratsars @ 4000
That was, perhaps, the most brilliant expose of why we SHOULD’NT rush to judgement.
[Reaching conclusions on data that has not been tested is very dangerous. This does not mean that the correct decision will always be reached but until we find a better way we would be fools to behave differently now. We do not know what Thompson’s defense will be but if the parliament or the public or the media reach a conclusion without the benefit of testing the data in a Court then we increase the chances of a miscarriage of justice. If we assume that Thompson is subsequently found to be innocent and if the public and the MSM find him guilty now and a penalty imposed how can reparation be applied/ calculated to Thompson, his family and anyone else who was adversely affected.]
I just hope people read your post and take it in.
Well, from my perspective, and with my ADSL connection, and my crappy computer, it is an absolute pain in the arse, going back in time – just to make sure I can take into account anybody’s refutation of my stance,
However, everyone should take the trip back to your’s.
Well, bluddy done.
Genuinely surprised to see Uhlmann sulking on twitter over his own incompetence.
Not.
1 Thomson 2 Shorten 3 ???????????????
Penny just pointed out that there has been a budget brought down.
Tim Costello speaking some sense now.
Bk
Thats why we sre watching tbe footy
Did tim costello really say that,,
Gee ill be looking the other way , for his charities
Which reminds me, charity, does reslly start t home mr costello
Sookie sookie la la
[Chris Uhlmann @CUhlmann
No Paul she was not taken out of context. We were quite explicit in the story we were investigating. And we had TWO former officials quoted]
Who is Paul?