GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
• Bob Brown’s announcement he will exit parliament at the end of June creates a plum parliamentary vacancy for the robust Tasmanian Greens. Speculation first fell upon the party’s current leader in state parliament, Nick McKim, who if interested could have followed the path from state leadership to the Senate previously trodden by Bob Brown and Christine Milne. He immediately ruled himself out though, which has left Bernard Keane of Crikey, Sid Maher of The Australian and Gemma Daley of the Financial Review identifying Peter Whish-Wilson as the front-runner. Maher’s report describes Whish-Wilson as a “wine-growing, surf-riding economist”, while Daley offers that he “worked in equity capital markets for Merrill Lynch in New York and Melbourne and for Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, Melbourne and Sydney”, before moving to Tasmania in 2004 and making a name for himself as the operator of Three Wishes Winery and a Gunns pulp mill opponent. Daley reports former state leader Peg Putt is “understood to have ruled herself out”, as has former Greenpeace International chief executive Paul Gilding. An ABC report also mentions Hobart deputy lord mayor Helen Burnet as a possible starter, while Sid Maher offers “Wilderness Society campaigner Geoff Law and Geoff Couser, candidate in the federal seat of Denison”.
• A fiercely contested battle over the order of the Victorian Liberal Senate ticket has ended with Scott Ryan taking second place at the expense of Helen Kroger, who is demoted to third, with Mitch Fifield as expected secure in first. Fifield won on the first round with 251 votes to 92 for Ryan and 71 for Kroger, before Ryan achieved a surprisingly strong 276 to 139 victory over Kroger on the second round. VexNews offers a revealing account from a no doubt interested party who says Ryan took advantage of new preselection rules introduced under the “Kemp reforms” to empower the party membership. These provide for one third of the vote to be determined by the members, but the system allocates six delegates to each federal division – rather an odd way of going about it, given that Liberal members appear to number only in the dozens across northern and western Melbourne. Ryan, it is said, has assiduously cultivated support in these “rotten boroughs” to turn the tables on the Kroger camp, which has its power base at higher levels of the party organisation.
• Nick Butterly of The West Australian reports some WA Liberals are “frustrated at the calibre of candidates coming forward” to fill its looming federal parliamentary vacancies: retiring Judi Moylan and Mal Washer in Pearce and Moore, and now, sadly, Senator Judith Adams, who succumbed to cancer on March 31. A further addition to the list is Senator Alan Eggleston, who has announced he will not seek re-election next year. The current form guide is evaluated as follows:
Among the most promising candidates being considered for either a Senate or Lower House spot are State Liberal Party treasurer Dean Smith and aerobatic pilot Drew Searle. Wanneroo councillor Ian Goodenough is so far the only declared candidate for Dr Washer’s seat, while Hyden farmer Jane Mouritz and former Liberal staffer Alex Butterworth are also being touted in some corners as options for Senate spots. One Liberal said yesterday they would push for retiring WA Mines Minister Norman Moore to sit in the Senate.
next on the agenda
http://www.smh.com.au/business/goverment-to-bankers-tell-us-how-to-regulate-you-20120420-1xbj5.html
Guytaur
[Tony Abbot did not win an election. Tony Abbott lost in negotiation.
Proving he does not have the skills to be Prime Minister.]
Abbott had the heart not to sell out Lib supporting middle australia to the green fruit loops. Julia won this round and signed away Labor to the greens and i am very upset it happend.
I hate one green nation and would prefer Labor govern in its own right, but Gillard knifed Kev and its been down the drain for Labor ever since.
I have been watching the response of the Aged Care Alliance which is made up of Providers, Unions and consumers and they are absolutely effusive about what the Government has delivered.
Looks like a political winner to me!
For instance, my husband’s electric wheelchair cost over $8,000. Furniture and equipment to nurse him at home, over $15,000. Resale value, half that if lucky. (We did get a mobile commode chair for $50 that cost someone $800 new.)
@rummel/3702
Yes by one vote.
Puff
I hope the reform legislation includes some reform of the way nursing homes and retirement villages administer the capital they take away. It seems there are scams and scandals everywhere and this destroys the peace of mind of many frail aged and their relatives.
I think this is a fantastic package.
Mari
🙂 “Vegemite” oh how i miss kev
It seems that try as they might, the media scrum at the aged care stakeholder presser could educe not a single negative.
David wh i am posting this again for you.
The only reason i am posting, is this is a passion of mine seeing allyour parents inlaws included
Go through this process,
So i posted the be low as well
t famlies re sons and daughters, in my age group and 50 something want a smooth transition Re older care and espe ially their parents home.
From observing my friends who have eldrrly parents, and the 50 sonethings still work, its a nightmare I have a friend that has lost all her long service Leave and holidays, tring to care for her parents in their home, they are in their middle 80 s Refuse to goto a home, yet cannot even cook for t hemselves a meal ‘ the mums heart is so bad, the drs say nothing can be done, he has a touch of demintia and hard to handle. Dont underestimate the 50.s plus being glad to see more home care. I worry about my friend, she may go first, and i do note in familes, there is always one who sacrifices more.
David wh i am posting this again for you.
The only reason i am posting, is this is a passion of mine seeing allyour parents inlaws included
Go through this process,
So i posted the be low as well
t famlies re sons and daughters, in my age group and 50 something want a smooth transition Re older care and espe ially their parents home.
From observing my friends who have eldrrly parents, and the 50 sonethings still work, its a nightmare I have a friend that has lost all her long service Leave and holidays, tring to care for her parents in their home, they are in their middle 80 s Refuse to goto a home, yet cannot even cook for t hemselves a meal ‘ the mums heart is so bad, the drs say nothing can be done, he has a touch of demintia and hard to handle. Dont underestimate the 50.s plus being glad to see more home care. I worry about my friend, she may go first, and i do note in familes, there is always one who sacrifices more.
rummel
Then you never wanted a compromise to respect the vote of the Australian people and you still do not.
What you want is a Coalition led government in its own right.
The Australian people did not vote for that. So get over it.
CTar1
No i wont support it.
rummel,
Abbott offered to sell his arse to become PM according to Tony Windsor. Imagine putting up your most valuable asset as a bribe and having it passed in.
Gillard won the election and the negotiations. That’s why they call her Prime Minister.
Sorryabout double post
Lizzie 3706 I can confirm the scams. I had to pay a private nursing home to provide my dad the respite care he was entitled to because they knew I was desperate. Then they had the hide to offer him full-time care if I was prepared to pay them a large sum of money. Both of these things were contrary to legislation. It was an ugly system when my family went through what we did just over 10 years ago.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Reply
Retweet
Favorite
· Open
Aged care providers happy, elderly advocates happy, unions happy, government happy, experts happy – that manchild Abbott: NOOOOO! ]
Does any one remember the liberal mi ister
2006 may be that wtte we should get over getti g in heritances, re nursing homes.
Puff
[the stress did not come from caring: it was dealing with providers.]
Some medicos are urging me to “get into the system” in case my mother needs more care or respite in the future. Remembering how stressful she found it, dealing with my father’s “carers” and filling in intrusive forms in order to gain a tiny amout of money, I want to stay out of “the system” as long as possible.
What I can never reconcile with the conservatives is their “get the government out of my life” and “let sturdy self-reliance be the order of the day”,or “let the user pay” and “people should stand on their own two feet” and something about filial care (Hockey) with their sudden distaste for cuts to areas of government spending.
Contrast this by asking, “Who are the first to put their hands out for government assistance?”
Firstly, no amount of money is too much to spent in the bush – and the rural socialists – the Nationals – have this down to a fine art. From sealing roads that two people use twice a day to railways that will never earn a cracker – Alice Springs to Darwin. Oh, forgot, this might be for times of war – and of course, one sacrosanct area of conservative government largesse is always defence. Conservatives are happy to spend any amount of money here too.
Secondly, it is any business at all that hits rocky times and those “profits” which came easily in the good times, are suddenly subject to market forces. Option one is for the government to bail me out or “protect” my business. I think Harvey Norman was the latest of the bigger ones to wail and want help. However, to be even handed many of the unions wail “jobs” as well as we have seen with Holden and the car industry in general.
Thirdly is the daddy of the them all. When Labor does some legitimate trimming of middle class welfare, the conservatives suddenly have a problem with it – the recent cuts to the private health levy whereby the Liberals, without blinking an eyelid, thought is was okay for families with an income of over $150 grand to get some government help – something like 8% of the population I gather.
The conservatives are total frauds.
Why any intelligent, thinking person actually admits to supporting them has always had me puzzled.
[NSW Nurses @nswnurses
Aged care reform: a victory for nurses http://bit.ly/HTQQP1 #agedcare #NSWnurses #ausunions]
lizzie,
The representative of the care Providers said that the current system of remuneration made the beds uneconomical. He expected with the establishment of a process to measure these costs and a system to pay providers the appropriate amount, then Providers could then focus more on providing a quality service rather than constantly worrying about keeping their doors open.
Makes sense to me.
Your comments are great Tricot. :thumbsup:
GG
[Abbott offered to sell his arse to become PM according to Tony Windsor.]
Gillard did sell her arse to the Greens. There is some nice photos of Gillard signing over the deed to Bob Brown and the funny part is now Christine Milne is the property holder 🙂
It’ll be interesting to see how Abbott is going to distort this Aged Care reform. He’s there now saying that “Labor’s announcements are not what they seem” and that “Aged people are going to have to pay more in the future for their care”.
Wall to wall good comments on the aged care announcement. ABC24 went to Abbott but, poor thing, the sound disappeared.
Aged Care package, I think its good. It promises to rein in the excessive rorting of some nursing home operators, bring a semblence of openness and transparency to nursing home operations, allow the elderly to anticipate how much their care will cost – its capped at $60,000 life time co-contributions.
My mother worked in the sector so I have grown up being aware of its structure, opportunities and problems plus we had to find nursing home care for mum for her final years.
At death, its not uncommon for superannuants to have contingency cash reserves of $500,000+ to pay for their aged care needs. After a life time of planning their career they also plan for their dotage and their death through wills, attorneys, living wills etc. This package will appeal to the over 50s and might steal the aged superannuants away from the Liberals
GG
It all certainly needs a shake-up. Seems to me that it was early in the Howard term that things started to go off, with “rationalisation” or some buzz word. But I could be wrong.
[It’ll be interesting to see how Abbott is going to distort this Aged Care reform. He’s there now saying that “Labor’s announcements are not what they seem” and that “Aged people are going to have to pay more in the future for their care”.]
Er, which aged care people in particular, Tone?
This is the first that Daily Terror readers got to see about the Aged Care Announcement.
As if Abbot was Prime Minister seems to be how they treat these things.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/abbott-says-aged-care-will-cost-more/story-e6freuyi-1226334346063
rummel
[No i wont support it.]
The country party has been the tail wagging the dog for very many years.
Have a good day.
😉
rummel,
Your mob lost. Get over it!
Your bleating is pathetic.
bluegreen
I agree with you on Butler. He has the common touch and speaks to the audience rather than talking at them. He is a class act and should go far.
BK
more like ‘media scum’
[Lizzie 3706 I can confirm the scams. I had to pay a private nursing home to provide my dad the respite care he was entitled to because they knew I was desperate. Then they had the hide to offer him full-time care if I was prepared to pay them a large sum of money. Both of these things were contrary to legislation. It was an ugly system when my family went through what we did just over 10 years ago.]
That’s what happens when the lunatics get control of, and remain in charge of the asylum for eleven years.
Now most of them are on the opposition front bench things are getting done to assist the people of Australia, not the rich ones who don’t need it but are still greedy enough to demand it.
[zoidlord
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 12:56 pm | Permalink
@rummel/3702
Yes by one vote.]
Tony Abbott’s vote and remember one MP couldn’t get there because of illness and she was a Turnbull supporter< Mitchen wouldn't allow a proxy!
mari
.
Some choir practise news.
[James Murdoch ‘could face U.S. lawsuit over claims of a cover-up at hacking paper’
Mr Lewis revealed for the first time that he has been contacted by people who accused Fox News and The New York Post, which are both owned by News Corp, of engaging in criminal behaviour
American lawyers working for him would be the ones to speak to James Murdoch about the £700,000 ($1.1million) payment he authorised in 2008 to Gordon Taylor, the head of the Professional Footballers’ Association.
The settlement has proved controversial as critics claimed it was an attempt to hush the affair up.]
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2132407/James-Murdoch-face-U-S-lawsuit-claims-cover-hacking-paper.html#ixzz1sXxI5niS
(superannuants to have contingency cash reserves of $500,000+ to pay for their aged care needs. After a life time of planning their career they also plan for their)
I would find this very very uncommon, indeed.’
I actually ask our money adviser big company, did he have many peop,e on his books
Who had reserves of a million, that he was advising, as i wondered whether our modest amount was below par, , he said no we where average, and those with a million in cash to spare he said not many
GG
[Your mob lost. Get over it!
Your bleating is pathetic.]
Im over it dont you worry and now am enjoying this stint out of government. It was tough under Keven Rudd as he was popular but life under Gillard as PM is great and enjoyable. In the end im happy Gillard is PM and looking forward to the next election in 17 months time.
Though on days like today i do have to nod my head in agreement with a Labor Policy.
lizzie,
The Presser I mentioned earlier made the point that up until 2009, the various components of the Industry were divided and self interested. But, since then, they’d got together to come up with an industry blueprint of what they needed to do.
Today’s package is the outcome of the process and they were genuinely chuffed.
Hopefully the issues you raised plus many others have been addressed. The Government has put in $500mill of new money in to this package. But, going on what the representatives were saying, the more efficient allocation of resources is going to deliver much better Aged Care Services for Australians.
It’s probably a good model for Government to address structural reforms.
My Say 3711 fully understand and agree with your sentiments.
I think you have to personally experience the system to really understand how bad it is.
Once again, it takes Labor Govt to do another major reform, this time Aged Care. Well done PM @JuliaGillard – http://www.health.gov.au/internet/publications/publishing.nsf/Content/ageing-aged-care-reform-measures-toc
rummel,
I can imagine you as one of those nodding dolls people have in their cars.
GG
Sounds good. And there are bouquets going around for the amount of consultation, too.
Davidwh,
I was keeping my husband at home, which I did.
There will be more BISONs coming out of the major Aged Care in 30 years by PM Gillard. Watch this space
Another three arrested for bribery and it is good that Bloomberg is reporting it. The US officials should be taking a keen interest in the bribery charges areas as that will assist them with FCPA charges against SeweRoo and Jimmy.
They should be able to establish that they are not fit and proper persons to own media in the US which should then snowball on to OZ.
[News Corp. (NWSA) (NWSA)’s U.K. bribery scandal led to three more arrests today, including a royal editor at its Sun tabloid and an ex-member of the armed forces, as prosecutors consider the first criminal charges in the case.
The arrests were made during early morning raids on two homes in Kent and Lancashire, both in England, according to a statement from the Metropolitan Police Service in London. The three people, whom the police didn’t identify, are still in custody and their homes are being searched.]
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-19/u-dot-k-dot-police-arrest-three-in-news-corp-dot-bribery-probe
[rummel,
I can imagine you as one of those nodding dolls people have in their cars.]
GG, in India, they stick pins into the doll
[rummel,
I can imagine you as one of those nodding dolls people have in their cars.]
Maybe not. Their heads are not hollow.
davidwh,
After Puff had outlined her issues with getting care, I became concerned, especially as my mum and dad, both independant now, in their own home, but both have health issues and they have repeatedly said that they will die in their own home and we are not to consider putting them into a home under any circumstances.
They realise their current health will not hold out for too much longer and have made a point of trying to discuss it with me. Selfishly it’s a conversation I haven’t wanted to have (not because I don’t want to help but it has been too painful to even contemplate).
I guess I will do my homework on the new package and take up that discussion.