Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.

Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.

I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:

• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.

The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.

• Bob Brown’s announcement he will exit parliament at the end of June creates a plum parliamentary vacancy for the robust Tasmanian Greens. Speculation first fell upon the party’s current leader in state parliament, Nick McKim, who if interested could have followed the path from state leadership to the Senate previously trodden by Bob Brown and Christine Milne. He immediately ruled himself out though, which has left Bernard Keane of Crikey, Sid Maher of The Australian and Gemma Daley of the Financial Review identifying Peter Whish-Wilson as the front-runner. Maher’s report describes Whish-Wilson as a “wine-growing, surf-riding economist”, while Daley offers that he “worked in equity capital markets for Merrill Lynch in New York and Melbourne and for Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, Melbourne and Sydney”, before moving to Tasmania in 2004 and making a name for himself as the operator of Three Wishes Winery and a Gunns pulp mill opponent. Daley reports former state leader Peg Putt is “understood to have ruled herself out”, as has former Greenpeace International chief executive Paul Gilding. An ABC report also mentions Hobart deputy lord mayor Helen Burnet as a possible starter, while Sid Maher offers “Wilderness Society campaigner Geoff Law and Geoff Couser, candidate in the federal seat of Denison”.

• A fiercely contested battle over the order of the Victorian Liberal Senate ticket has ended with Scott Ryan taking second place at the expense of Helen Kroger, who is demoted to third, with Mitch Fifield as expected secure in first. Fifield won on the first round with 251 votes to 92 for Ryan and 71 for Kroger, before Ryan achieved a surprisingly strong 276 to 139 victory over Kroger on the second round. VexNews offers a revealing account from a no doubt interested party who says Ryan took advantage of new preselection rules introduced under the “Kemp reforms” to empower the party membership. These provide for one third of the vote to be determined by the members, but the system allocates six delegates to each federal division – rather an odd way of going about it, given that Liberal members appear to number only in the dozens across northern and western Melbourne. Ryan, it is said, has assiduously cultivated support in these “rotten boroughs” to turn the tables on the Kroger camp, which has its power base at higher levels of the party organisation.

Nick Butterly of The West Australian reports some WA Liberals are “frustrated at the calibre of candidates coming forward” to fill its looming federal parliamentary vacancies: retiring Judi Moylan and Mal Washer in Pearce and Moore, and now, sadly, Senator Judith Adams, who succumbed to cancer on March 31. A further addition to the list is Senator Alan Eggleston, who has announced he will not seek re-election next year. The current form guide is evaluated as follows:

Among the most promising candidates being considered for either a Senate or Lower House spot are State Liberal Party treasurer Dean Smith and aerobatic pilot Drew Searle. Wanneroo councillor Ian Goodenough is so far the only declared candidate for Dr Washer’s seat, while Hyden farmer Jane Mouritz and former Liberal staffer Alex Butterworth are also being touted in some corners as options for Senate spots. One Liberal said yesterday they would push for retiring WA Mines Minister Norman Moore to sit in the Senate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,913 comments on “Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 74 of 79
1 73 74 75 79
  1. Abbott says the reform will mean that everybody will now pay more for aged care. Then he quickly switched to – guess what? – Thomson and the scandal.

  2. [Mr Abbott is a joke too, only a bad joke.]

    Abbott is no joke and could very well be your next PM because your current Dear Leader cant sell a glass or water to a man dying of thirst in the desert.

    Im looking forward to the next 17 months and its good to see some policies coming out from Labor.

  3. rummel

    Abbott drowned out again. Labor policy is the agenda. Labor is the government. The media cannot keep ignoring that fact.

  4. r

    [Abbott is no joke and could very well be your next PM…]

    The only people who can get of your very own resident nutter is youse guys.

    So stop whinging about him and get on with it.

  5. But we did not have tosell our parents home, to go to a nursing home,
    The excepted rge weekly rent which was mediumn. We covered the daily fee with mums savings,
    They also took most of tbe pension,.

    So some nursing homes here are happy with that, i venture to say both where church based
    I cannot speak for others only the ones i dealt with

    Both different denominations.

    Interesting.

  6. Aged Care Industry on World at Noon are largely supportive of the policy. Representative for Catholic Care applauding the increase in salary for Aged Care Workers.

  7. [Abbott is no joke and could very well be your next PM]

    Hey “rumball”, as sure as night follows day, Abbott will never be MY PM, even if he is elected.

  8. rummel

    Very poor response. Desperate times over there for supporters of the :monkey: and his fast diminishing support as carbon pricing becomes reality.

  9. [The old and easily-manipulated being a big support bloc of the conservatives, Abbott is likely to spin them into a state of anxiety about something that will actually be of benefit to them. There are few who spin and raise false fear as unconscionably as Abbott and his chorus of media lickers.]

    He’s already started. I watched 3 mins of his response and that was enough to hear what his slogans will be but I reckon he’s a bit worried cos he had to bring up Craig Thomson at the end of his spiel.

  10. Thanks for that CO

    And lizzie – almost a certain boring ritual as far as the media is concerned.

    I do not join the conspiracy theorists about media bias all the time, but the big shift has been moving what is essentially “news” to commentary and entertainment.

    The media quickly glosses over most of the factual stuff to find potential areas of conflict and highlights this as it makes for much more “interesting” news.

    Currently the government cops this sort of stuff, but Howard did too as would Abbott should he ever survive long enough.

    It’s really too bad but it is one more nail in the coffin of orthodox media.

  11. Abbott now railing against User Pays.

    Interesting position for a conservative leader. No wonder there are leadership rumblings

  12. The hacking enquiry is, I hope, about to become very interesting as next week the old Galah SeweRoo, and the young galah Jimmy, are being called to give evidence to the Leveson enquiry. This time apparently they won’t be sitting side by side but will be appearing separately on different nights.
    Mr Jay will no doubt be at his very best in squeezing information from them both.
    If you don’t want to sit it out live you can watch video replay at your leisure in the next couple of days after they have been questioned on the Leveson enquiry website.

    Pass the popcorn as Kirri used to say.

    [LONDON – Britain’s media ethics inquiry said Thursday it will hear testimony from News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch and his son James next week, as officers arrested three people in the investigation of corrupt ties between the British police and the press.

    The Murdochs have been at the hub of the long-running phone hacking scandal, which has badly tarnished the reputation of the British press.

    The Leveson Inquiry said Thursday that Rupert Murdoch will appear on Wednesday and possibly Thursday. His son, James — who resigned as executive chairman of News Corp.’s U.K. newspaper subsidiary in February — will appear on Tuesday, the inquiry said on its website.]

    http://www.startribune.com/business/148094505.html

    Leveson enquiry website is here.

    http://www.levesoninquiry.org.uk/

  13. davidWH (I like the caps 🙂 )
    I try to understand the immediate spin against any reform (from either side), that’s all. Then I wait to see what effect it will have on my family.
    Reminds me of the frequent “new cure for cancer” which is always 10 years away. The sensible thing is to doubt every announcement.
    But I sincerely hope that Labor has it right, because it will have a big effect on my future comfort (if I live that long).

  14. http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/australian-embarrasses-itself-again

    [The Australian embarrasses itself – again
    Published 11:58 AM, 20 Apr 2012
    Updated 12:02 PM, 20 Apr 2012
    Tristan Edis

    In yesterday’s Australian newspaper the editorial team yet again embarrassed themselves with their piece: Taxpayers should not gamble on renewables. In the article they closed off a diatribe against renewable energy with this sentence:

    “It is no accident that separate reports recently revealed South Australia had the highest proportion of electricity generated by wind turbines and the most expensive power in the nation.”

    The funny thing is that neither of these reports (which I would think are by Bruce Mountain of Carbon Market Economics and the Australian Energy Market Commission) mention anything about wind power being the cause of these high prices. And that’s because, in fact, the opposite is the case. The high prevalence of wind power in South Australia’s electricity mix is actually depressing electricity prices in the state.]

  15. The PM said that Tone had committed to supporting the findings from the Productivity Commission. Since the government is implementing them, the PM expects him to give support in Parliament.

    We shall see.

  16. Rummel why do you have to post all your comments twice, we all sometimes have a second one posted but not all the time, what is the matter??

  17. [Peter Martin ‏ @1petermartin

    Hockeynomics lasted one day. @BernardKeane: Abbott: “some will pay more” for aged care. That’s the point.

    Space Kidette Space Kidette ‏ @SpaceKidette

    @1petermartin @BernardKeane Lasted? Did it ever really exist?]

  18. [Julia has really upset you today. Did she release a landmark policy or something?]

    No Puff, she has not upset me. I hope her announcement today works as my family will shortly need these services. Good work Gillard.

    Will this be a game changer?. No
    Will this change a vote?. No

    Its a nice policy and i hope it works, now back to HSU and Labor Government putting a Human rights lawyer on a travel black list ( think of the screaming if it was the JWH Government)

  19. Abbott & Hunt reacting to the Govt talking to business associations – their ‘one stop shop’.

    ‘They’ve talked to Liberal State Premiers’ but can give no details. 🙂

    Liberal state premiers also understand that frustrated big business joining with the Federal Govt is bad, very bad, for them.

    How surprising!

  20. My Say will probably not believe what I am about to write but much of the problems with aged-care are not about selling the family home but about getting access to support when it is needed to enable an aged person to remain in their home as long as possible but then have access to low or high level full-time care elsewhere when the point has been reached when staying in the home is no longer an option. Some examples:

    Home help so the partner doing all the care can get a regular break of a couple of hours.

    Access to short-term and longer-term respite care once again to give some quality of life back to the caring partner.

    Much shoter waiting times when the times comes that a person needs aged-care.

    Often the lack of these supports ruins the health of family members left to carry the load with limited outside support.

    I don’t swear often but our current system is crap.

  21. [Cuppa this is an area I am very passionate about and care nothing of the politics and everything of the reality.]

    Then don’t expect much joy from your party of choice. As the Prime Minister said, the Liberals are all politics, no policy.

    [“The Coalition are about fear not facts, slogans not substance.” ~Prime Minister, Question Time, House of Representatives, 13 September 2011]

  22. [Rummel why do you have to post all your comments twice, we all sometimes have a second one posted but not all the time, what is the matter??]

    Dont know, i hit the post button once and i get two posts. My theory is that the PB computer thinks there so good it posts them twice 🙂

  23. CO @ 3641

    [Telstra of course would love to keep control of that last section into everyones’ home so they can continue to screw the rest of the industry and the public.]

    Bingo! and exactly why Conroy was wise to ditch the original FTTN plan and go for FTTH. You’d have to have the memory of a gnat to forget Sol and the 3 Amigos at Telstra and the lengths they were going to to ensure they were able to maintain their monopoly gouge due to their ownership of the CAN (Customer Access Network).

    It was only when Conroy called their bluff and said ‘we don’t need your steenking copper’ that the Sol, the Amigos and McGauchie were quietly moved along and a more amenable Telstra under Thodey and Livingstone started to play nice. (Conroy going for the ‘grab em by the balls and their hearts and minds will follow approach).

    It’s no surprise at all that Telstra would be fine with talking to any future government stupid enough to roll back the NBN to FTTN. They’ve already got the $11b payment for leasing the ducts, and some incompetent buffoon wants to give them back their ‘last mile’ monopoly! Happy Days! You could imagine the executives doing jigs whilst calculating the performance bonuses all day.

  24. For the Welsh amongst us this bizarre coincidence.

    [An urban legend that says a pope dies whenever Wales wins Europe’s rugby crown

    “This year saw the death of the Coptic pope, Shenouda III, on the very day that Wales won the grand slam,”.He was pope for 41 years and succeeded Cyril VI, who died in 1971, in the same month that Wales won the Grand Slam again.”

    …….discovered that of eight Roman Catholic pontiffs who had died since 1883, five expired in a year when Wales won the Grand Slam.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-news/welsh-rugbys-papal-curse-backed-by-facts-20120420-1xb20.html#ixzz1sXpqhzQo

  25. http://tinyurl.com/83owdhp (click google link)

    [Easing aged care fears at heart of reform
    BY: ANALYSIS DAVID CROWE From: The Australian April 20, 2012 12:00PM

    THE key message from Mark Butler’s aged care reforms is that older Australians will be able to stay in their own homes longer without the fear of a new hit to their biggest asset.

    The Aged Care Minister wants to make it as easy as possible for people to live at home for years after their retirement, knowing this is far more cost effective than subsidising their move to residential care or a nursing home.]

  26. I hear that the house doesn’t have to go to get a nursing home place. That is the biggy. My friend had to sell off her mother’s home at the almost first offer to pay the nursing home when her Mum’s dementia got worse.

    I would rather take the high jump than let my only asset be transferred to an aged care provider rather than be available to make sure none of my kids has to be homeless if things go to crap in their lives. I want my home to be the fallback for my family, not wealth-creation for a private aged care provider.

  27. lynchpin

    [Hey “rumball”, as sure as night follows day, Abbott will never be MY PM, even if he is elected.]

    The feeling is mutual. However, if Abbott becomes PM its only because he won an election, thats more then Gillards currently has.

  28. [The feeling is mutual. However, if Abbott becomes PM its only because he won an election, thats more then Gillards currently has.]

    This comment displays your complete ignorance of our parliamentary process.

  29. rummel

    Tony Abbot did not win an election. Tony Abbott lost in negotiation.
    Proving he does not have the skills to be Prime Minister.

  30. [THE key message from Mark Butler’s aged care reforms is that older Australians will be able to stay in their own homes longer without the fear of a new hit to their biggest asset.

    The Aged Care Minister wants to make it as easy as possible for people to live at home for years after their retirement, knowing this is far more cost effective than subsidising their move to residential care or a nursing home.
    ]

    Excellent messaging. Butler is bright.

  31. rummel – So if the Liberals have to form govt some time by making agreements with independants/other parties you won’t support them?

  32. davidwh
    You are totally correct. It happened to me. My husband (older than I) went through all these stages. I lost my career, my skills, my health, spent all our money, and the stress did not come from caring: it was dealing with providers.

  33. Some details here

    [However, care costs will be capped at $25,000 per year and no more than $60,000 over a lifetime for those in residential care and nursing homes.

    For those receiving home care, the costs are capped at $5000 per year for pensioners and $10,000 – worked out on a sliding scale – for those with an income of more than $43,000]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillards-37-billion-agedcare-reform-20120420-1xb9j.html#ixzz1sXsHz0Pm

  34. [guytaur
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 12:40 pm | Permalink
    mari

    I think rummel is using the Coaliton Broadband so thinks he has not posted due to his slow connection.]

    Rummel 3685 I think Guytaur has sloved your problem, get off the Coalition supposed broadband and come over to the speed of ALP Broadband and you will be a happy little “vegemite”

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 74 of 79
1 73 74 75 79