9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.
9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.
9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.
9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.
8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.
8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.
8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.
8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.
8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.
8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.
7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.
7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.
7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.
7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.
7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.
7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.
7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.
7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.
7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.
7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.
7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.
7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.
7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.
7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).
7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.
7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.
7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.
6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.
6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.
6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.
6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.
6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.
6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.
6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.
6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.
6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.
5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.
5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.
4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.
Obviously Labor stuffed up somewhere to lose like this. I have not been following the state issues so I can’t say what contributed. I am just saddened that a beautiful state is going to be right royally screwed again by the white-shoe brigade who will use the LNP gov’t as a personal harem.
[“Huge message to federal labor. Get rid of Julia Gillard and put Kevin Rudd back in or else. I’m a labor voter btw and I think this result is a huge kick in the nuts. This is an awesomely bad result.”]
Federal Labor has stopped listening to the public…. they only listen to Bob Brown and focus groups.
Their turn is coming…
Wow…. And I thought NSW was a wipe out. Team Labor are stuffed like a turkey.
i find it a stretch to link this lose to federal labor. both nsw and qld elections were the results of the LNP/Libs taking so long to put up a credible leader that the governments stayed in power much longer that the electorate wanted them there. this has resulted in the losses being compounded.
Bob Katter looks better with his hat on.
There are going to be a lot of voters who looked at Queensland who went ‘bang’ take that Labor tonight.
Then they will look at the nation as whole and not feel so passionate.
The NBN would be good where I am. 12% super while getting a bit from the mining company that has been screwing my son would be good..
The Libs are already failing in NSW and VIC, the same will happen with the dumb brightly dressed of the canadian hordes.
It is a matter of time.
Hibisucus dress patterns will not hide the dearth of policy credentials.
Conservative governements in both NSW and Qland will bot live and die by the light of commodity prices.
Not just energy.
It will be commodities.
[zoidlord
Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink
@Mod Lib,
Thats because the longer in gov the longer you make mistakes – it’s politics 101.]
Message heard loud and clear: the ALP doesn’t have anything to learn, you were just in government too long.
Eight seats.
16% swing in Qld.
16% swing in NSW.
OK.
Silver medal.
Mod lib
State vic were in power for 11 years. In nov 2010 the coalition won 45 to 43 seats. Vic Labor were a good govt.,but they still got the boot.
confessions. spot on 😉 worse is that he’s my member…
[Thats because the longer in gov the longer you make mistakes – it’s politics 101.]
So this would predict a progressively decreasing 2PP vote for the governing party at each election. Care to show some examples of this?
[“So much for the huge powerful Katter machine.
So much for 5 seats.”]
He got his 2(hoping 3) seats in a state where preferences are optional. Not a bad effort if you ask me. How many seats have the Greens won without preferences? Whats that? None?
You can shrug it off and say what a loser, or you can see this from a federal perspective where there ARE preferences and see that he may win a majority of North Queensland seats(Warren Etsch is probably safe though)
[rummel
Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink
Wow…. And I thought NSW was a wipe out. Team Labor are stuffed like a turkey
]
Exactly what a lot of people were saying about the Victorian Labour Party 8 years ago..
@Mod lib,
Stop reading and then writing you’re own crap.
Never once i said they don’t learn or do learn from their mistakes, it’s about time you forget school boy tactics of entrapment.
Labor = Liberal.
tres crisis!
[Never once i said they don’t learn or do learn from their mistakes, it’s about time you forget school boy tactics of entrapment.]
So what were the lessons I missed?
Sky News Exit Poll disagreed with that
46% were concerned about the Carbon Tax, 36% the Mining Tax which are direct fed issue and 65% “cost of living” which treads on ClubFed
[“12% super while getting a bit from the mining company that has been screwing my son would be good..”]
Okay I have to ask about this one.
How is the mining company “screwing” your son? Did he not get that pay rise he was after to lift him from $110K a year to $120K a year?
The one good thing you could say about mining companies is they pay their employee’s extremely well compared to national average
Mod Lib, obviously Labor have image and policy problems at both the state and federal level at the moment. That’s clear for all to see. What is also clear is that the Liberal/National parties have very little to offer other than not being Labor. There’s hardly been a revolution policy-wise in either Victoria or New South Wales. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in Queensland.
[So what were the lessons I missed?]
That the quality of your contributions to this blog would improve if you didn’t wank yourself using a dictionary and a thesaurus.
This is a bad result for Labor but a tragedy for Qld. With Victoria, NSW and Qld in the vandals’ hands the Eastern section of this country is going to be a mess. In six years these clowns can and will do a lot of damage. It is not going to be pretty.
sky news… that bastion of the fair and balanced… please…
As the black knight in that Monty Python sketch famously said: “It’s only a flesh wound” 😆
Itep
Victoria has regressed under Faillieu. Jobs down. Investment down and the state debt up.
[“Message heard loud and clear: the ALP doesn’t have anything to learn, you were just in government too long.”]
Gillard will put her head in the sand and say everythings going fantastic and it will be business as usual come Monday.
The worst aspect of the Federal Labor Government is that they absolutely REFUSE to listen to the public… they are too busy navel gazing and playing footsies with the Greens to care about those silly voters out in voter land….
agree PTMD. time heals all wounds and QLD’ers have forgotten how corrupt the Nats are up here.
Earlier tonight Michael Kroger was screaming at Bruce Hawker over his role in Bligh/Labor negative campaign targetting of Newman personally.
Aside from the usual hysterics from Kroger, and the massive hypocrisy of today’s Liberals accusing Labor of negative attacks on their opponents, I do think he had a point.
If Hawker had any dealings in the Newman targetting, then by all accounts it represents yet another fail on his campaign watch to go with his utter failure of the Ruddstoration challenge recently – completely botched from the get-go.
It goes to my assessment of Bruce Hawker as nothing more than a Kroger-like spiv and spin merchant who perhaps needs to hang up his boots, as he has clearly out-served his usefulness to the greater good for which he supposedly serves. It gave me a small amount of satisfaction to see Hawker looking clearly embarrassed when Kroger decided to unhinge at him over the Newman stuff.
[“This is a bad result for Labor but a tragedy for Qld. With Victoria, NSW and Qld in the vandals’ hands the Eastern section of this country is going to be a mess.”]
What exactly is going to happen and please… be specific…
i love how they keep going on about how it all starts tomorrow. you’re going to see it from tomorrow… blah blah … whatever …
oh except i guess they could announce tomorrow that civil unions for all people are now off. and the could can the Wild Rivers tomorrow. and they could remove any current curbs on CSG… yes they could do alot tomorrow.
One lesson that Labor needs to learn is that voters have a highly developed sense of entitlement after the Howard years. They believe that they are doing it hard.
When Labor gives the voters extra money in their pockets to compensate for the carbon price and fund extra superannuation from the MRRT then they have got to sell these benefits long and loud. Now higher electricity charges can be blamed on the State governments because there aren’t any Labor State governments left to worry about. Sell the MRRT as clawing back the excessive profits from the greedy miners and sharing it out to the wider community. How hard is that to sell? But it has to be sold otherwise people just won’t think of it themselves.
there will be a few farmers dusting off the chains and connecting them up between their two dozers….
[i find it a stretch to link this lose to federal labor. both nsw and qld elections were the results of the LNP/Libs taking so long to put up a credible leader that the governments stayed in power much longer that the electorate wanted them there. this has resulted in the losses being compounded.]
A huge factor. NSW voters were saying they wanted a change in 2007 but wouldn’t vote for the Libs because they were a rabble led by a leader who was also a bit of a rabble. In 2011 those 4 years had been a bridge too far and that was it. Of course for those 4 years the media ranted about NSW Labor because they were dudded of a change in 2007.
That’s not to say that NSW Labor didn’t need kicking out but it would have been less painful if they had lost in 2007. Same with Qld – it seems, after 14 years, that people just wanted a change but the last couple of weeks, due to bad campaigning, Qld Labor were flogged instead of being tapped.
Ciobo and Mason were making a lot of noise about the ‘cost of living’ being a big reason (and the carbon tax) and Ciobo said this will also be a big issue for Federal Labor. Kevin made a big thing of that against Howard in 2007 so I hope Labor has an answer for that one in 2013.
[GeeWizz
Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink
“12% super while getting a bit from the mining company that has been screwing my son would be good..”
Okay I have to ask about this one.
How is the mining company “screwing” your son? Did he not get that pay rise he was after to lift him from $110K a year to $120K a year?
The one good thing you could say about mining companies is they pay their employee’s extremely well compared to national average
]
When I refer to screwing I refer to input versus output.
The company that increases their input without sharing it with those who help to produce the outut.
It becomes obvious quite quickly when this happens.
Defend the indefensible if you must.
And Hawker’s steerage of Labor’s Qld election campaign must surely bring into question suggestions that he’s an excellent marginal seat sandbagger….
Score for Labor atm:
NT: rules precariously
ACT: rules in minority comfortably – the Greens will have no truck with Zed Seselja
Tasmania: rules a little more precariously – the Greens seem a little prone to the vapours
SA: in majority and scoring runs
WA: in opposition but Barnett is doing his best
Victoria: in opposition but Bailleu is doing his best
NSW: in opposition and BOF, try as he might, will probably not lose the next election
Queensland: who?
I nearly forgot, Federally:in minority government but running one back and one out.
[“Sell the MRRT as clawing back the excessive profits from the greedy miners and sharing it out to the wider community.”]
Why don’t they shut up about “sharing the mining wealth with Australians” and send us a Cheque like they do in Alaska with Oil profits?
Instead Labor are going to be spending everyones share and we are meant to be happy.
Katter wasn’t, isn’t *huge* or *powerful*
He is a goose.
And despite all his boasting and postering, came a gutser.
He now needs to refund taxpayers for his serial none presentation in Canberra to discharge the duties for which he is very generously *compensated* for.
Enough Katter – pay back the money!
[Huge message to federal labor. Get rid of Julia Gillard and put Kevin Rudd back in or else]
No. Get stuffed.
It’s the Commonwealth of Australia, not the Commonwealth of Queensland.
Queenslanders don’t like the fact that one of their own isn’t PM? Diddums! Try being South Australian!
My view has always been – 2 terms for a PM & no more than 10 years for a Party – To Everything, Turn, Turn, Turn
Victoria,
There will be no opposition in Qld. There will not be enough opposition members to cover portfolios, to ask questions in QT, to serve on committees, in forums or for anyone to approach with issues about policies or actions of the government.
It will be open season for duck-hunting and Qld is the sitting duck. (BTW I expect a change in gun laws to be slipped through quite soon in Qld. It is a standing order for reactionary-conservative governments).
Here Labor this is what “Sharing our mineral wealth with Australians” ACTUALLY looks like:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Permanent_Fund
Puffy,
I’m sad. 😥
Puff
As i said earlier, i wish Qlders the best of luck, they are going to need it
[Instead Labor are going to be spending everyones share and we are meant to be happy.]
“Spending” it by reducing company tax and increasing superannuation contributions. Idiot.
Now for QLD to set fixed election dates…
space kidette… it takes me back to my teens before we got to vote out Joh. horrible.
At least the Vic by election went the right way for many of us and the Swannies won! Night all
Who made that asinine comment? Labor will reinstate the bloke who lost 31 – 71 in caucus? Prats aren’t in it.
I am sitting here in Brisbane tonight. Yeah, its bad. But Queenslanders like the underdog and hate smartarses. There is still hope!
Time to active if you are in the ALP.