9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.
9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.
9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.
9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.
8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.
8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.
8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.
8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.
8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.
8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.
7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.
7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.
7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.
7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.
7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.
7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.
7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.
7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.
7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.
7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.
7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.
7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.
7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.
7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).
7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.
7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.
7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.
6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.
6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.
6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.
6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.
6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.
6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.
6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.
6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.
6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.
5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.
5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.
4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.
For the people who complaining about Gillard i.e. Rudd, instead how about campaigning him to replace Bligh?
He needs more time at state level anyway.
Let me repeat. What happened in QLD tonight is not good for democracy. Any Govt needs an effective Opposition
middle man,
At least tomorrow will be the same as Can-Do You Over sleeps off his hangover. Every other day will be a question of how fast can he dismantle the state and score an easy billion for his personal coffers.
@Itep 569 – in NSW nothing has changed other than the public service getting screwed to 2.5% pay rises, as well as public servant sackings although O’Farrell is resisting the push from the big end of town to sack more.
Where I am is ok because one of the Ministers used to work there and understands our issues; he’s actually good – he has an incredibly labor approach, all things considered.
Clover Moore our lord mayor who has been brilliant and keeps upstaging the premier because she is so progressive and effective, is getting bashed by him. He’s taken back city transport and planning from her because she’s trying to foster public transport and bike riding. So, developer pork barrelling is on the cards….
[““Spending” it by reducing company tax and increasing superannuation contributions. “]
Business pays superannuation…. NOT the government.
And the company tax was getting cut 1% big whoopsies. Most small businesses don’t even pay company tax but they DO pay Superannuation.
Anyways look at my Alaska link to see the way you are meant to do it….
Puff,
From SA and ACT we can watch from afar.
Spacey: “Queensland, you’re standing in it.”
[There will be no opposition in Qld. There will not be enough opposition members to cover portfolios, to ask questions in QT, to serve on committees, in forums or for anyone to approach with issues about policies or actions of the government. ]
Really? Are the few remaining ALP members just going to sit on their arses for the next 3 years? They may not be able to do everything to the nth degree but they will have to be selective in applying their energies. Melodrama like your statement doesn’t help anyone.
As an example, how many opposition members usually ask questions in question time?
SK
I am very sad for you and quite worried the same thing could happen here. That will be all we need in SA. It is hard enough being at the bottom of the Murray Darling system and regularly dealing with the effects of drought and water shortages without the place being run by a mob of economic neanderthals.
[“Who made that asinine comment? Labor will reinstate the bloke who lost 31 – 71 in caucus? Prats aren’t in it.”]
Last time I checked the punters vote for governments not caucus members…
Ducky,
Queensland, beautiful one day, shit the next.
Here is what howard/ costello’s sharing our mineral wealth with Australians” ACTUALLY looks like –
$230B from Minerals Boom Mk 1 Wasted with *Nothing to Show*
Thats almost *10* NBN’s, countless Kms of life saving improvements on the Pacific Highway and all around Australia, new hospitals, more uni places ,more doctors etc.
But no howard and costello pissed it all up against the wall.
jesus, i thought education was free and compulsory in this country… clearly some in here thought it optional…
Dave but they did pay down Labors massive debt and posted 10 out of 11 budget surpluses.
The mining boom is happening right now under Labor but they can achieve neither of those two benchmarks even with their mining tax
Really? Amazing. And Kevin Newman?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Newman_%28politician%29
He was pretty important too.
the photo on the abc site of can do kissing his wife is horrendous!
The fruit loops up north will wake up pretty quickly after this, do not worry.
Puffy,
This is extreme. AND we are a unicameral govt. So there are no checks and balances. Can-Do You Over will have carte blanche on the Treasury coffers.
Another LIE.
Business pay wages which include Super. IT is part of wages for duties carried out.
Puffy,
I will keep my fingers crossed the same doesn’t happen in your neck of the woods. Certainly not good for democracy.
More nonsense.
They just sold Telstra.
check it out.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
[WA: in opposition but Barnett is doing his best]
He should feel confident in winning an outright majority next year.
Spacey,
You can still go for your swims. The water might even get a bit closer if there is any gold in them thar sands.
middle man,
*vomits*
It’s Time,
You can’t expect five people to be able to ask meaningful questions of all portfolios. there is a big difference to having five members instead of, say, forty,
It is not just the members, as far as I understand it they still only get five members’ worth of staff instead of forty. They can be as selective as they like, but it is the resources that come with having forty members that make the difference.
This is a nightmare for democracy in QLD.
business doesn’t pay my wage or my super. I EARN my wage and super.
GeeWizz,
You owning up?
got the same taste in my mouth too.
[“Another LIE.
Business pay wages which include Super. IT is part of wages for duties carried out.”]
Well you just agreed with me, so how could it be a lie?
Business pays superannuation, not government. They might as well announce that super is rising to 20% it’s not going to cost the government a cent, it will just hit businesses
Ducky,
I have heard that Can-Do You Over is going to *reform* water so he might just put a tax on it.
The voters of QLD might be feeling pretty please with themselves for bashing up ALP. But they will find they have bashed good governance.
mm
Vomit inducing indeed. Interesting thst cando’s partner has a similiar look to Abbott’s wife.
Business does not pay super. Business deposits the super that empoyees earn into a super fund. The employees pay the super.
one of his slogans is ‘more accountability in government’…. this from Joh’s party…. seriously??
and on John Connelly, william i can confirm that wallabies fans do not look on his time as national coach fondly. However QLDers do hold “Knuckles” time as QLD coach in very high regard.
I agree with whatever Mr Puffer writes.
Try running a business without paying wages and other stuff which includes super.
BTW can I say Labor have done the most to attack the super of low-paid Australians by attacking the co-contributions scheme.
Low income workers used to be able to put in $1 of their own money into super and get paid $1.50 co-contribution by the government up to $1500 total government contribution. Labor CUT the amount to $1000. They then locked the phase-out wage at a set level which was previous under Howard increasing with inflation. That means as wages increase less and less people can get any benefit from the scheme at all.
Don’t tell me Labor care about superannuation… they have shown their true colours by gutting a once successful scheme for low income workers to increase their super.
exactly PTMD, I pay super out of my wage.
[I nearly forgot, Federally:in minority government but running one back and one out.]
A little bit of harness racing parlance there if I’m not mistaken ducky.
geewizz. i work in the industry. next to no one really took advantage of it. very very low take up.
I’m announcing tonight that I am a candidate for Queensland Premier at the 2015 election.
I consider the fact I live outside of Queensland my most important quality for the job because it means I only very occasionally have to associate myself with Queenslanders.
[Business does not pay super. Business deposits the super that empoyees earn into a super fund. The employees pay the super.]
Not only that. Business often dont deposit the Super in time.
Sometimes, they hold the Super for months and months before depositing, earning interests.
@GeeWizz,
You can’t even troll properly Fed issues are Fed issues.
[I’m announcing tonight that I am a candidate for Queensland Premier at the 2015 election.]
Showy, you cant, you have been disqualified by the publication of your photo on ABC. 😛
The Finns, or they hold onto until they declare bankruptcy and the empoyees never see it.
Don’t tell me the Tory’s care about superannuation…they are determined to stop it being increased to 12% so their mates in business make more money.
MM, yes. I have seen that happened many times.
Outlook after tonight:
NT: Henderson loses government to CLP, no idea how badly.
ACT: some seats may shift around but there should still be ample seats between the ALP and Greens for the ALP to retain govt.
WA: Barnett re-elected, should get majority in own right.
Fed: Coalition likely to win, even with Abbott as leader.
Tas
[“geewizz. i work in the industry. next to no one really took advantage of it. very very low take up.”]
BS… I took advantage of it many moons ago when I was younger and made less money than I do now.
Putting in $1000 and knowing the government would put in $1500 was a great motivator to increase my super. In the 2007 budget porkathon Howard did a bonus payment of ANOTHER $1500 for the 2006-2007 Financial year. That means my super had $3000 put in for my $1000 for that financial year.
Unfortunately Labor don’t seem to like young, low paid workers putting in their own money into super and have now gutted the scheme. Within a few years incomes will be so high you’d have to be on the dole to get any government super contributions at all. What a disgrace.
[Don’t tell me Labor care about superannuation…]
Truthie, read and weep from the BISONs:
[Aust & Holland have the best pension systems in the world followed by Sweden, Swiss, Canada, UK ]
READ MORE: http://www.businessinsider.com/best-national-pension-systems-2010-10
And that is largely due to PJK.