Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.

A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9,410 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 189
1 2 3 4 … 189

  1. Dio – that comment about left wing parties being affected by employment rates is interesting.

    Previously I have made the point about the current economic conditions here in Victoria only to have Frank and WeWantPaul and others suggest that I am being a sucker for the media spin but the truth is that here in Victoria we have seen all the key economic data and feedback from across government, finance and real estate have pointed to the business environment becoming sluggish and many employers laying staff or considering it.

    Maybe now we can end the silly debate about tents and leadership and instead focus on the issues facing the community.

  2. Confessions 80 re women in politics_________
    _________________________
    Obviously you haven’t grasped
    what I have been saying..and it’s not THAT hard !
    I am NOT a conservative voter.
    ..never
    I have voted Labor all my life until recent time when in disgust over some aspects of the ALP in Victoria I have voted green at recent election…and will do so in future

    However what I have said again and again here … is that the facts…the history of Oz politics shows that women leaders don’t win
    Lawrence/Kirner/ Kennelly and others have all been swept out
    Redmond in SA looked a certainty for the Libs there last time but tired old Rann managed to win again

    OK It would be nice if they did win… but they DON’T
    I don’t like that fact …but facts are stubbon things and we must act on them or suffer the consequences
    Blight will go down in Q’Land
    …a good leader and a hard worker…In Tasmania ..Giddings who seems OK to me…there will both also be swept out. …and I don’t thing Gillard can be saved
    a Labor MAN might just struggle back..the voters don’t really like Abbott…but a woman PM won’t win…
    Sorry about that ….there’s a glass ceiling and I suspect there always will be in this country

  3. Quick look at some paper sites, 4 Corners doesn’t seem to be that big on them, it was late in the night. It may or may not have made the paper copies of some of them. Online stories are fairly brief. 24 news cycle being what it is, it may play more in the TV & radio. In truth though when you cut it down to a bulletin there’s not that much to tell.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/julia-gillard-jumped-the-gun/story-fn7x8me2-1226270184895

    Herald Sun’s story

    [Julia Gillard jumped the gun before kevin Rudd was knifed
    by: Phillip Hudson From: Herald Sun February 14, 2012 12:00AM

    JULIA Gillard’s staff were working on a “victory speech” two weeks before she toppled Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister.

    But Ms Gillard insists she did not ask for the speech to be written and did not make the decision to challenge her leader until the day it happened.]

  4. Spoke too soon, the SMH has more than one

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-staff-planned-for-coup-20120213-1t2c1.html

    [Gillard staff planned for coup
    February 14, 2012
    Phillip Coorey

    JULIA GILLARD insists she decided to challenge Kevin Rudd only on the day she confronted him, after fresh allegations last night that her staff began preparing her acceptance speech two weeks before she rolled Mr Rudd for the leadership.

    …………..

    A source close to the Prime Minister told the Herald that a speech was prepared a few days before the coup but Ms Gillard was not told about it.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-abandons-pm-to-sweat-under-the-spotlight-20120213-1t27b.html

    [Rudd abandons PM to sweat under the spotlight
    February 14, 2012
    Phillip Coorey
    COMMENT]

  6. Same weekend: #Essential PM Gillard 41 (+2) Abbott 34 (-2) #Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 37 (-3) Abbott 40 (+3) #auspol choose your poison & i smell fish

  8. Team labor should apologise to Rudd for destabilising the government. Gillard has made self flagellation an art form and I am enjoying the show very much.

  9. morning. finns,

    essential marketing.
    i have. been. polled by them occasionally,

    in my labor state. I have never,
    repeat never been polled by. any one else o mogan two face to face,
    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    how ‘many years have they been going, don’t know
    but over as many years we have won, many small prizes-, in the
    lottery, so is my chance of being polled, less than winning the lottery.

    in that case im will keep buying lottery’tickets.
    perhaps mr bowie being an expert on all things political. can explain
    that.
    don’t fall into any conversation traps do what imam doing spending the gardening

    another day another poll from. them,

    ps but of course’most will stay. here getting stressed its just not worth your. health

    finns i. still’l have my china doll circa 1949

  12. Santorum for Repug candidate? The man is obviously suffering from a psychological disorder. The perfect candidate for many of the support bases of the GOP.
    http://www.americablog.com/2012/02/ppp-santorum-surges-15-points-ahead-of.html
    This is potentially delicious – legal action against Rupert in the US.
    http://www.americablog.com/2012/02/legal-action-against-murdoch-in-us.html
    This is a moving, sobering story from a A&E doctor. It tells of what happens when abortions, by way of legislative stupidity, get forced underground.
    http://drjengunter.wordpress.com/2012/02/11/anatomy-of-an-unsafe-abortion/

  16. One of the lib speakers in parliament said yesterday that their modelling had shown that for every dollar sent to private health via the health rebate it reduced the cost of public health by two dollars.

    Aside from the question of who did the modelling (the cleaner at a VD clinic?) why don’t the libs propose an amendment to increase the rebate to 60%, save double the money, or 100% (free private health for all) and save even more.

    Rebates have the effect of increasing prices, as seen with the tax rebates for houses, cars, computers and solar energy systems. Removal of the rebate may see private health costs decrease as funds enter the real world of competition and not subsidised support that leads to inefficiencies.

  18. [Kinkajou
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 7:04 am | Permalink
    Their ABC ignores essential yesterday and leads with News poll today…]
    And follows up with the AMA insisting any savings from means testing the PIHR must not go to shoring up the budget bottom line.

    Followed by Unions worried about the rolling out of the NBN in WA, Qld and NT – because of OH&S concerns! *shades of pink batts revisited warning*

    Pffffffffffffffffft!!!!!

    Hi my say
    good to hear from you
    I missed your stoush with bemused the other day/night?
    Don’t worry about him
    You have lots of fans on here!
    And use that scroll button 😆

    gussie
    if you’re about
    sending lots of hugs to you
    and please come back
    have to say you’ve been an enormous help to me when I’ve subjected PB to a (many) severe meltdowns. And you have shown the same kind regard to others.
    it would be good if you could accept that same kindness and love from everyone here that you so generously share.
    Take care.

  21. yes. but only. dawn patrol
    I know i am safe.

    the world at the moment is being intimidated by power.
    look at europe , look at the usa. non of us really know for sure about any thing.
    we cannot take anything as gospel any more, most likely we never could,
    so for the people to sprout about certainty, in, about what they see what they read
    is aall abouut burying heads in sand,

    even academics should think out side the square,
    the. people where once told the world was. flat, they believed it,
    once told there was no south land they then discovered it,
    once told they would always die from bacteria disease,along came pennicilan

    we are all but puppets on strings, we must hope the string wear s thin , and the puppetears
    fall with the string.
    in to oblivian have, faith,’pray, think positive and spread the good news

  23. [The purpose of the “Truth Team” is to “promote the president’s achievements, respond to attacks on his record and hold the eventual Republican nominee accountable,” said the announcement from the Obama re-election team.]

    BK, it’s the Yank pale imitation of my BISONs 👿

  25. Finns
    Here is a list of Republican characteristics that in large part could apply to Abbott’s crew.
    [A party that refuses to raise taxes on anyone, ever, when taxes are at historic lows isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party that wants to roll back successful programs like Social Security that have been a bedrock of American society for nearly three quarters of a century isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party that’s openly at war with Progressive Era reforms like unions and child labor laws isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party that refuses to make cuts in defense when the U.S. currently spends more than the next 14 countries in the world combined isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party that denies the scientific consensus of climate change isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party that seeks to repeal a law that was decided by the Supreme Court nearly four decades ago isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party that advocates the forced deportation of 12 million immigrants isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party that denies basic facts about the deficit isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party that wants to pull out of landmark treaties the United States helped write isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party that invites white supremacists and fringe organizations like the John Birch Society to its most important conferences isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party whose leaders compare the President of the United States to Adolf Hitler and Stalin on the floor of the House, who threaten impeachment if they don’t get their way, and who sow doubt about the President’s citizenship isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    A party whose presidential candidates claim that states should be able to ban contraception and that the Civil Rights Act was unconstitutional isn’t conservative, it’s radical.

    And so on.]

  30. My Say @ 121

    [people where once told the world was. flat, they believed it,]

    If you polled the conservative voters you would actually find that not much has changed…

    P.S Welcome back My Say

  31. BK,

    TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    The eye test that Abbott & his 40 Thieves and the #MSMhacks failed images1.dailykos.com/i/user/312562/… #auspol

  34. [Fran Kelly trotting out Lib/OO talking points at Tania P on private health rebates.]

    And the classy Tania have Fran an upper cut as good as Ali Ali Ali

  36. Front page of hard copy of Herald Sun

    State in Crisis
    JOBS DOWN IN DRAIN
    ANZ. 1000
    TOYOTA 350
    ALCOA 600

    Last week’s papers focussed on bank interest rate rises, property prices going down and job losses. It is no surprise that the govt has gone backwards in the opinion polls. Interest rate changes collerates with opinion polls. If rates go down, opinion poll improves for the govt. It is as simple as that.

  39. Good morning all,

    Looks like just more of the same for the next few days.

    Anyway, can anyone explain to me how the 2PP could move from 54/46 to 55/45 when the PV for labor goes up 2 points and the coalition goes up 1 point ?

    This would seem to me to be a net 1 point gain for labor and should mean that 2PP would at the least remain 54/46.

    I can only guess that the reason is that most of the 3 points going to labor and the coalition has come from the greens ?

    I am not doubting the figures just interested in the calculations.

    Thanks in advance for any help.

  41. 774 AM program

    JG saying she was asked onto 4 Corners to explain Labor’s progress since 2007.

    She didn’t say it, but sounds like the PM was ambushed.

    JG says the program will have to provide evidence for their claims re speech writing!

  42. Doyley

    I have not looked at the figures closely, but it appears what you say may be the case.
    I am not surprised by Newspoll. Some were hoping for an improvement. I did not see why there would be any improvement. The govt are working under difficult conditions and JG as leader is not popular. Whether it is as some say, people not warming to her, the Rudd factor, the female factor, the carbon tax, the softening of economic conditions, the polls will not improve for the govt in the near term. Of course, changing leader would be absolutely no difference.
    I am looking forward to the Private insurance bill passing HOR and Senate, as well as MRRT passing senate. I will feel more comfortable after that has occurred.

  43. Hi victoria,

    Thanks for the reply.

    As i said, I was not doubting the figures just interested in how they were calculated.

    It will just be more of the same ol’. So all we can do is hold on and go for the ride.

  44. [BK
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    THIS is what we need here!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/02/13/obama-campaign-sets-up-truth-team/ ]

    It is a good idea, BK, both to counter the MSM memes and coalition porkies. The party has some fine talent which cannot yet be promoted into the ministry given its minority status, factional balances, etc. People like Andrew Leigh, Mike Kelly, Mark Dreyfus, Ed Husic can add considerably to the political debate.

    It would be good to use them in such a strategy.

  46. Doyley

    All the govt can do is implement its agenda. As I said, if the Private insurance bill and the MRRT become legislation. The govt can hand down a good budget in May. The carbon price will take effect in july. I believe after this time the govt can consolidate their position. If JG is still not cutting through as leader, perhaps she herself will decide what is best for the party.

  49. Just watched the PM on the ABC and she was having real trouble keeping a straight face while she didn’t answer the questions about last night’s revelations.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 189
1 2 3 4 … 189